October 16, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
30%
24%
20%
7%
6%
6%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 213
james500
2649 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 3:11 AM
5-8 immediately catches the eye, but I wonder how much merit there is in either of 8-T or 5-Q?

Every cut is helpful, and T+A = 11.

Rosemarie44
1705 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Friday 3:17 AM
I prefer a 5 in my crib than A-4, so 5-8 it is. This hand has slightly more cuts for improvement in comparison to holding 5-8-T-Q.
Jazzselke
1608 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Friday 3:18 AM
A4 or 58 start with a combined 6 points. Used to favor stashing the 58 in the crib with such a hand. Now lean towards A4: retain the 5 for pegging, and not the vulnerable lone ace.
dec
5039 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 3:33 AM
Defensive hold. Six this way to start. dec
Mark6
128 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Friday 4:13 AM
Like Rosemarie want the 5 in my Crib
zeke76
742 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Friday 5:30 AM
5 in the crib.
JQT
2988 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Friday 5:43 AM
Similar to recent puzzle: 5 Card to the Crib.
Gougie00
4425 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 6:36 AM
I like the A4 in the crib. I might get AK from the opponent. I can only account for 9 pegs, so its offense.
RubyTuesday
556 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Friday 6:53 AM
When I looked at the discard table I read the score for 4 8 rather than 5 8 and decided that 5 Q should go in my crib.
cwed
1158 votes

Joined: October 2014

   
Friday 7:07 AM
I almost always toss 5-[anything] from hands like this. If you toss A-4, you basically get help from only a face card cut. But 5-[anything] allows help from a variety of cut cards. In this case, toss A-4 may yield only a 6-hand and 2-crib, whereas toss 5-[anything] can easily turn into an 8-crib.
SallyAnn3
173 votes

Joined: March 2020

Friday 8:38 AM
I usually listen to my mentor who posted above me, but this time, I liked the 8-10, hoping opp tried to balk my crib with a 9. I should have doen the standard thing of getting a 5 into my crib if it doesn't wreck my hand!
jmath714
812 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Friday 9:07 AM
I like 5-8 from the spot, but willing to consider Dan’s point about the lone ace vulnerability.

I like to attack from hands like these, so I’ll most likely pair a 4 lead (depending on the cut) and be aggressive, rather than leaning on position this early.

I’m curious if anyone would keep it differently if the 8 were a 9.
dgergens
695 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Friday 3:47 PM
Felt like keeping the 4&5 together today. But I think A4TQ is the bigger point keep.
Coeurdelion
4353 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 4:03 PM
I think several times we've seen that it has paid to put the 5 in our own crib so I think I'll just compare A-4-10-Q (5-8) with A-4-8-10 (5-Q):

A-4-10-Q: 4pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.48) = 9½pts

A-4-8-10: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 8½pts

Potential:

A-4-10-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 555, 101010, JJJJ, QQQ = 19 cuts.

A-4-8-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6pts with AAA, 444, 9999, 101010 = 13 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer I'll play Defense as positional hole is 8pts but I'll be trying to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think both hands will peg OK but I think A-4-8-10 should peg slightly better.

Summary:

A-4-10-Q has a starting value 1pt more and has 19 cuts for 8-10pts. However A-4-8-10 is guaranteed improvement and 13 cuts for 5/6pts which is a big increase on 2pts. I'm not sure that this will be sufficient to catch up the 1pt with the 19 cuts for 8-10pts so I'll throw the 5-8.
HalscribCLX
4110 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 4:10 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-4-10-Q___6.17+(-2.02)+5.47=9.62____34.2____48.5
5-8-10-Q___6.26+(-2.13)+5.21=9.34____34.5____47.8
A-4-8-10___4.48+(-1.83)+6.50=9.15____33.4____47.0
A-4-5-Q____7.13+(-1.98)+3.79=8.94____34.8____47.7

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
A-4-10-Q______24.9____25.1
5-8-10-Q______26.5____26.3
A-4-8-10______26.4____27.0
A-4-5-Q_______26.9____26.5

A-4-10-Q is best for expected averages by 0.28pt and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-8 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
3887 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 5:47 PM
If there had not been a gap between the 10-Q, those X-pointers had been 10-J or J-Q, the A-4 would have carried the day. The 5-8 is the better discard to own crib. See my reply to cwed above as to how A-4 and 5-8 compare. Dealing the opening hand it is def., def., def., play off the lead. Somewhere else dealer might pair either the ten or queen since has the Ace to score 31-2 if either X-pointer is tripled. Not a good choice with dealer advantage on deal #1.
Ras2829
3887 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 12:12 AM
Hi JQT: Wow - what questions you pose! Choosing a defense pegging strategy, I would consider the Ace as the greatest liability in the hand. Will respond with the Ace on leads of 9 and above. If looking at the X-pointers and which to ditch first, would pitch the 10 spot. It seems to me that the high volume of 10-K discards (by far the most frequent n/d choice) will make the Q a more likely card for n/d to retain; so the ten spot is less likely to be paired by n/d simply because of a frequent absence. Would play the 10 spot on leads of A/2/3/4/5/6/7/K.