Tuesday 3:22 AM

I tend to keep flushes if they have the same value as the alternative. 4-5 is a pretty strong discard too.

And it was a 7 cut again, clearly you have psychic powers! Can you give me five numbers from 1 to 50, and a further two from 1 to 12, for the Euro lottery tonight?

   

Tuesday 4:03 AM

I decided NOT to flush. I usually miss out on the presence of one. I need a bigger screen or better resolution.

   

Tuesday 4:05 AM

Oops - on my first run of the algorithm I entered the Q as a club. So my choice is worth a virtual muggins.

Once rerun with the correct cards, the algo reports that keeping the flush is best, a 17.80 average.

My errant toss of 5Q is worth 17.58. Not much of a difference.

But then there is the show-card, which says "hey Mr. Muggins, pay attention."

   

Tuesday 4:19 AM

I am wobbling between it pays to flush and tossing 5-Q. This hand has more cuts but at only 10 points maximum.

   

Tuesday 4:42 AM

Nice cut for a doz. offense to the lead.

   

Tuesday 4:55 AM

This seems to be second deal. The pegs say I am way off schedule so play O” for current dealer. The hand says “O” . Keeping with Ras and James point from several days ago the flush has the most points in HAND and gets help from 20 cuts. As JQT & others have said sending a 5 to own crib often has good potential. The starter says “O” ....so off I go in an attempt to get back on the right side of the CPZ schedule

   

Tuesday 5:28 AM

I like that 445 together. I'll toss the 78. Nice puzzle.

   

Tuesday 6:12 AM

If we had a sizable lead I just might go with 4-5.. but we do not .. hoping for another four, seven or eight cut and or get a sizable crib. A sensible, safe discard here. dec

   

Tuesday 6:13 AM

I decided not to keep the flush and threw Q 5. It would have been great to have a 4 as the turn up but 7 will do very nicely thank you.

   

Tuesday 6:32 AM

Keep the Flush and nice start for the Crib

   

Tuesday 6:52 AM

The flush hold was a close second for me. I like 5-Q to my crib slightly more than 4-5 and like the makeup of this hand a little more than the flush as the pair of 4s may come in handy in the pegging. It’s seems real close though between the two choices.

   

Tuesday 7:18 AM

It pays to flush, especially if I also get to toss a 5 in my crib. Agree with James500

   

Tuesday 7:20 AM

Very good puzzle,3 viable choices: 45, 5Q and 78 are all highly rated choices. Throwing 78 is only a combined 6 points, but looking for a huge kabangee cut of a 6.

   

Tuesday 7:34 AM

I hold this way because of the possibility of a kabangi cut (6).

   

Tuesday 7:44 AM

Same as my mentor above. I could kick myself for not even seeing th 4-4-7-8, though, with the face 5 to the crib. I had my focus on the flush option to put a 5 in my crib....sigh

   

Tuesday 8:22 AM

Unless a 6 is cut, 4-5 to the crib is about the same value as Q-5, so went that way.

   

Tuesday 9:34 AM

Looks as though dealer and non-dealer are both about two points above average, assuming this is start of second hand. In this case the theory of 26 has become a reality of 29. So as n/d of first hand, will continue thinking offense when viewing placement of pegs, when viewing these six cards, and after seeing the starter card. The three likely retentions all have combined values of more than 17 with 4-4-7-8 the highest value though less than .3 of a point difference between the best and 4-4-5-Q with 7-8 discard at just under 17.2. The flush falls in the middle. Choosing an offense pegging strategy, will take pegs as offered and play on the lead. Would pair a four if led. On an Ace, 3, or 7 lead would play the 8. On a deuce, 5, 8, 9, or X-point lead, would play the 7, Guess that covers the bases on responses to the lead. The flush would be my second choice. The 5-Q 6.593 (1,251) is the better discard compared to the 4-5 5.534 (642) and rank consecutively at 7/91 and 8/91 to own crib. The 5-Q has the higher average because two points are scored only half as frequently as the 4-5 and 5-Q scores 10% more cribs of 8 points or more. Need the next deal in 2nd Street CPZ 43-47, and that is 32 points away. So some pegs here would be instrumental in getting close to that target. Peg aggressively!

   

Tuesday 9:36 AM

The FLUSH is nearly equal in overall value, but (4 4 7 8) will probably peg more offensively.

   

Tuesday 1:09 PM

I tossed the 4c-5d because if I tossed to Qs-5d the crib would be more dependent on the pone tossing X cards. The 4-5 leaves the crib open to more possibilities of a variable discard by the pone.

In this case there is no apparent loss of points based on the counting of the hands. It has yet to be determined which is the better pegging hand, however the flush may give the dealer a slight advantage with the more difficult hand to read by the pone.

   

Tuesday 4:14 PM

I think it's between 4-4-7-8 (5-Q), 4-4-5-Q (7-8) and the flush 4S-7-8-Q (4C-5):

4-4-7-8: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 12½pts

4-4-5-Q: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 10½pts

4S-7-8-Q: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 12½pts

Potential:

4-4-7-8: Improves with 3333, 44, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 9/10/12/14pts with all cuts.

4-4-5-Q: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 777 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/10/14pts with AAAA, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, QQQ = 20 cuts.

4S-7-8-Q: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, QQQ = 30 cuts = 65.2% up to 9/10pts with 44, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 16 cuts. Plus 9 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Position:

It looks like we were First Pone and both of us scored 1 and 2pts more than average. So I'll continue to play Offense.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think both 4-4-5-Q and 4S-7-8-Q will peg well. Of course the flush will be harder to read.

Summary:

Both 4-4-7-8 and the flush start with 12½pt but 4-4-5-Q has more cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 8-14pts although 4-4-7-8 has 20 cuts for 9-14pts. 4-4-5-Q has 2pts to catch up on the other two while the flush has an extra 0.20pt for a spade cut. I think this will be close but as the flush will peg well, has the extra 0.20pt and still 16 cuts for 9/10pts I'll throw the 4C-5.

   

Tuesday 4:23 PM

At 11*-18 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
4-4-7-8____7.87+3.02+6.54=17.43____29.4____21.3
4S-7-8-Q___8.02+2.93+6.45=17.40____29.5____20.7
4-4-5-Q____7.26+3.28+6.62=17.16____28.4____19.5

Offense_______L8 %____L9 %
4-4-7-8________46.7____56.3
4S-7-8-Q_______47.9____57.1
4-4-5-Q________47.9____58.0

4-4-7-8 is best for expected by only 0.03pt but it is also very slightly best for Win %s and appreciably lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-Q to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.