Thursday 4:24 AM

Not the most valuable hand, but if I can slow the dealer down, I might retake the advantage.

3-2-6 eleven might help me in the pegging, but if Dealer does have the associated X-X-X-X hand, the 5 cut has probably sealed my fate.

   

Thursday 4:35 AM

I couldn't see giving dealer 2-3 to his crib at this position. So kept 8 points to start. Pretty hard to increase the value of this hand or if holding 3-6-6-6. Only 7 cuts increase either hand.

   

Thursday 4:40 AM

Not much choice really. Throwing 2-3 not an option

   

Thursday 5:09 AM

First going for nine cards is very difficult. We know what a 2-3 discard could mean. My only question is seeing a five was cut here that could not have been your online cut. Face-Ace could have been two points. Three of clubs lead . All i got here. dec

   

Thursday 5:22 AM

As Pone at Hole 100, we are faced here with a wonderful "Goldilocks" puzzle, one in which Keep (3 6 6 6) is too HOT, and Keep (2 3 6 6) is too COLD, but Keep (3 3 6 6) is JUST RIGHT!

After the most unfortunate 5 Card Cut, let's lead a Trey ... and brace ourselves.

   

Thursday 5:35 AM

Can’t throw 23 given the position.

   

Thursday 6:07 AM

We still have a cut for 20 points.

   

Thursday 6:10 AM

Why am I thinking flambe? I might learn something today. Yoda (Al Miller) told me to always hold the points in situations like this because there is no guarantee the next hand will have anything to win with. I'll hold my nose and toss unsuited 2-3. I hope the dealer threw himself 89.

Lead a 6.

   

Thursday 7:21 AM

Dealer has 3 counts, no reason to help her out.

   

Thursday 7:22 AM

Would not give 2-3 to dealer at this position. We are already in good shape for next deal. Primary goal here is to slow dealer down.

   

Thursday 8:58 AM

12 points in the hand doesn't get me close enough to peg out next deal, so there's no use tempting chance and tossing 2-3. Defense it is.

   

Thursday 9:07 AM

My thought was to find the most defensive toss, regardless of my hold. And since I’m holding 3 of the 4 sixes, I prefer 6-3 over 6-2. Not saying I’m right, but I’m very curious.

   

Thursday 9:51 AM

As others say, our position means I'm not tossing 2-3 to the dealer.

   

Thursday 4:24 PM

See m comments in reply to jmath714 above. Dealer has minimum position to deal in 4th street CPZ (95-99). Can't afford a large crib and 2-3 scores 8 points or more 56.445% across the board. Those are amazing numbers as only the 5-5 scores more cribs of 8 or more points. No hold the dozen for me. If I were at hole 104 or more would toss 2-3 as would likely get close enough to peg out as dealer the following hand. Will lead a trey. If dealer responds with a X-pointer will drop a six for count of 19. Don't think dealer would pair a six for count of 25 though it sometimes happens when dealer is looking at a hand of six or fewer points in this position. If so RAS scores 31-8. Am nervous with the 5 starter card as held no X-pointers. That makes it more likely that dealer has a fistful. Since scaling back from the 12 point hand, play as safe as possible on the pegs.

   

Thursday 6:11 PM

Surely it's between 3-6-6-6 (2-3) and 3-3-6-6 (2-6) with an unsuited discard. But I'll also look at 2-3-3-6 (2-6):

3-6-6-6: 12pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = +4½pts

3-3-6-6: 8pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.97) = +3pts

2-3-3-6: 2pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.08) = -4¾pts

Potential:

3-6-6-6: Improves with 33, 6, 9999 = 7/46 = 15.2% up to 18/20pts with all cuts.

3-3-6-6: Improves with 33, 6, 9999 = 7/46 = 15.2% up to 14/18/20pts with all cuts.

2-3-3-6: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 6, 7777, 9999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 6/8/12pts with AAAA, 33, 4444, 6, 7777, 9999 + 16xXs = 35 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is only 1pt short of positional hole so I'll play Offense to try to improve my position.

Pegging:

2-3-3-6 will peg best playing offense.

Summary:

3-6-6-6 has the best starting value and although 2-3-3-6 has more cuts for improvement and 35 cuts for 6-2pts I don't think it will catch up the 9¼pts difference. So I'll throw the unsuited 2-3.

   

Thursday 6:14 PM

At 100-95* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

____________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib___Total____W1 %____W2 %
3-6-6-6____13.07+(-3.17)+(-7.18)=2.72_____6.2____47.3
3-3-6-6*____9.22+(-2.85)+(-4.28)=2.09_____2.7____52.1
2-3-6-6*____6.91+(-2.70)+(-3.95)=0.26_____0.0____46.9
2-6-6-6_____8.09+(-2.98)+(-6.27)=(-1.16)__0.0____36.6
2-3-3-6_____6.17+(-2.26)+(-6.34)=(-2.43)_25.5____47.3

Defense________L1 %____L2 %
3-6-6-6_________4.8____47.5
3-3-6-6*________2.0____35.3
2-3-6-6*________1.8____36.6
2-6-6-6_________4.5____48.4
2-3-3-6_________6.4____38.7

3-6-6-6 is best for expected averages by 0.63pt but in this critical board position approaching the end of the game 2-3-3-6 is very much best for Win %s and although not lowest for Loss %s because of the risk of the 6-6 I'll select it to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 3C and play Defense:

Lead_________Dlr's Pegging Pts.
3_________________(-1.77)
2_________________(-1.78)
6_________________(-2.29)

   

Thursday 11:37 PM

I didn’t want to give dealer 2 3.