November 18, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
37%
33%
19%
5%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 244
Rosemarie44
1733 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:03 AM
Prefer 5-J rather than 7-8 in my crib. Hand has a two card "magic eleven" and more cuts for improvement. Also every cut hits hand or crib.
mrob2199
494 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 3:05 AM
Agree with Rosemarie-every cut is going to help us somewhere and the 2478 should have value in pegging
james500
2679 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 3:51 AM
J-5 from me too. 4+7 = 11, all cuts help somehow.

7-8 and 2-4 should attract a few, but I wonder if anybody will choose 4-5?
dec
5069 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 4:02 AM
One more diamond might be a lil different. J-5 for me over 7-8. dec
JQT
3018 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 4:35 AM
As First Dealer, I prefer pegging with Keep (2 4 7 8), and I also prefer Toss (5 J) in my Crib.

A few other places on the board, I may choose Toss (7 8), or in an Endgame, I might even look at Toss (4 5).
Eolus619
168 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Wednesday 4:59 AM
The reasons for a J-5 discard ..see above. My hand + crib already get me past Colvert’s first par hole. The cut gives me two more ..at least ..points in my crib. I am going to adopt JQT that first dealer should be in a more aggressive mode rather than be defensive. Like my kept pegging cards. Off I go on offense trying to be first deal well above 18.
Gougie00
4457 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 5:45 AM
When in doubt Face-Five.
mfetchCT425
684 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 5:56 AM
It was close between 5-J and 7-8, but slight edge goes to 5-J for me.
Jazzselke
1637 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Wednesday 7:35 AM
Always wonder about this and similar hands. J5 is the third highest-valued discard, and pegging potential of 2478 seems higher than 245J. This is a good example where knowing your opponent's discard tendencies would be very valuable. Otherwise could not argue against a preference for tossing 78.Then hope for a 6 cut!
SallyAnn3
199 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Wednesday 8:15 AM
Yes! Am with the crowd of commentators today. I want the 5 in my crib as it will usually pay off more often than the 7-8. Smaller cards in hand to peg with.
warquaker
117 votes

Joined: July 2020

   
Wednesday 10:27 AM
Tossed the 87: live in hope of that 24pt crib!
dgergens
709 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Wednesday 11:09 AM
Thought I'd try something different today, man was I different! Was hoping pone drops a crappy 3 or 6 in my crib. Did sacrifice the magic 11, but not any points.
Mark6
157 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Wednesday 1:18 PM
In the minority big time Today so probably lost half a Point
Coeurdelion
4384 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 4:24 PM
I think it's between 5-7-8-J (2-4), 2-4-5-J (7-8) and 2-4-7-8 (5-J):

5-7-8-J: 4pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.52) = 8½pts

2-4-5-J: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 8½pts

2-4-7-8: 2pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 9pts

Potential:

5-7-8-J: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 7/8pts with 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, JJJ = 20 cuts. Plus 12 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

2-4-5-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 6/8pts with 3333, 6666, JJJ = 11 cuts. Plus 12 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

2-4-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 6/7pts with 222, 3333, 444, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 24 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

I think all three hands will peg well playing Offense but less so playing Defense. Perhaps 2-4-5-J will perform best with the J as an out card and a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

2-4-7-8 has the best starting value by ½ptbut it doesn't have the ¼ benefit of the nob potential. It also has the fewest cuts for improvement and the lowest maximum at 7pts. 2-4-5-J has the most cuts for improvement but 5-7-8-J has nearly as many and 20 cuts for 7/8pts. So I think I'll throw the 2-4.
HalscribCLX
4139 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 4:43 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-4-7-8____4.65+(-1.89)+6.93=9.69____34.8____47.8
2-4-5-J____5.13+(-2.13)+6.59=9.59____36.4____48.7
5-7-8-J____6.74+(-2.20)+4.44=8.98____34.2____46.9

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
2-4-7-8_______26.8____26.4
2-4-5-J_______27.2____25.7
5-7-8-J_______27.3____27.3

2-4-7-8 is best for expected averages by 0.10pt over 2-4-5-J but 2-4-5-J is best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s by an appreciable amount. So although it's the very start of the game as the difference is very slight I'll decide basedf on the Win/Loss %s and select 7-8 to discard.

After the 10S cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
3922 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 7:00 PM
Often folks from the upper mid-west advised tossing the 7-8 from this hand or similar when dealing in preference to the 5-X. Out west, folks advised tossing the 5-X (whether J,10, K, or Q). In recent years RAS has discarded the 7-8 from this hand or similar with good results. Admittedly the difference is small. If pegs seemed to be the major issue, would play 2-4-7-8. If pegs not the major element, play the 2-4-5-J and discard 7-8 when dealing works for me. Be flexible enough to accommodate these subtle differences. As dealer of hand one, its defense from the get-go and play off the lead. Would score the 15-2 on a five or X-pointer if led. Will play the Jack on 6-7-8 lead. Would make the count 11 on an Ace lead, play the deuce on a four lead, and play the five spot on a trey. That covers most the bases. Will not pair the lead. Have a plan rather than just drop the cards willy-nilly. Don't panic when knowing of 8 points (guaranteed peg, five points in hand, and a known two points in crib). Dealer of first hand needs 7 holes to have 50/50 chance to win. If we picked up the typical 6/9 with a X-card, have a minimum of five points in crib.