November 18, 2020
37% | |||||
33% | |||||
19% | |||||
5% | |||||
1% | |||||
1% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
| Total votes: 244 | |||||
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Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
Wednesday 3:03 AM
Prefer 5-J rather than 7-8 in my crib. Hand has a two card "magic eleven" and more cuts for improvement. Also every cut hits hand or crib. jmudge says: The 5-J was my first instinct, and I didn't listen to it. |
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mrob2199 1429 votes Joined: February 2009 |
Wednesday 3:05 AM
Agree with Rosemarie-every cut is going to help us somewhere and the 2478 should have value in pegging Rosemarie44 says: Good morning: Another early riser! Can't get use to this time change. Usually up at least an hour earlier every morning. mrob2199 says: Rosemarie I actually work nights so I still have 2 more hours to go lol |
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james500 3917 votes Joined: June 2013 |
Wednesday 3:51 AM
J-5 from me too. 4+7 = 11, all cuts help somehow.
7-8 and 2-4 should attract a few, but I wonder if anybody will choose 4-5? mrob2199 says: James I think you can make a very strong case for 7/8 from this hand -very very close with the J5 IMO-the 45 not so much Eolus619 says: James..interesting question about the 4-5. I am
pondering the data that a five does NOT appear in any of the top ten dealer discard combinations to own crib. Wonder if there is statistical evidence ..maybe even scant... for this reason or is it merely preference/bias. Eolus619 says: top ten most frequent ..for clarification james500 says: Hi both, thanks for taking the time to respond.
To Rob, my interest in 4-5 might be the product of a selective memory. It's a discard that has done well for me before, but I might be misremembering all the times it didn't work out, or remembering out of context with regard the other four cards or board position. To Eolus, it's certainly unexpected, and a surprise to me, that 5-? discards aren't common enough to break the top 10. Out of interest, which discards do comprise the list of most frequent? Eolus619 says: in order most to least ..8-7, 2-3, 6-9, 6-7, A-2, A-3 ,6-8, 8-9, 7-9 & Q-K...i memorized these to have as reminder when I am discarding to dealer crib...there are some red alert cards that one can see help crib combinations and thus to avoided sending if possible Eolus619 says: also...that is why , if Pone must send a red alert card to the crib... try to match it up with the best combo of a 10, Q or K which then puts that pairing , most likely, on the top ten lowest crib scores on average Eolus619 says: also...that is why , if Pone must send a red alert card to the crib... try to match it up with the best combo of a 10, Q or K which then puts that pairing , most likely, on the top ten lowest crib scores on average Eolus619 says: James...one more “odd” statistic ..at least to me...if one looks at Colbert’s discard table ...dealer to own crib...10 of the top 12 discards producing the highest a average values involve a 5. and yet as said ...no 5 shows up in the ten most frequent discards to own crib Eolus619 says: misspelled ....it is COLVERT Ras2829 says: In this case, RAS does not have scant empirical evidence. These figures are based on 1/4 million discards made in live play over a long period starting in 1991.The most frequent dealer discards in this order are 7-8, 2-3, 6-9, 6-7, A-2, A-3, 6-8, 8-9, 7-9, and J-Q. Discard choices are equally available though not equally made. The 10-K is available as often is the 7-8 and dealer discards 7-8 many times the rate of 10-K. The old adage, "anything can be in the crib" ought to be "some discards are hardly ever made to crib". Note among the ten most frequent that six are mid-cards, three are small cards, and the J-Q is the only X-point combination to make this list. There ae no five spots in this list although the 2-3 couplet is second most frequent. There are quite apparent reasons for this. Those mid cards work with other mid cards primarily. In dealer hands such as A-4-X-X, 2-3-X-X, 2-2-3-4 or other small card run, 4-4-5-6 or similar, 5-5-X-X or similar, and X-X-X-X, the two mid cards often stand alone and are discarded to crib. So it is with the small cards with the A-2 a bit more prevalent that the A-3. They work with the bottom end of the deck primarily. If other small cards are not present and pegging is not the major issue they will be in dealer crib. The five is seldom discarded as hard as dealer tries to do so. Think of your own games as dealer. How often do you go several games without being able to discard a five spot? Those 5's work with A-9, 2-8, 3-7, 4-6, other 5's, 6-7, and all those X-pointers. Knowing this has value though position, and choice of strategy should be the primary factors governing discards. The frequency of the 7-8 discard by dealer is why there is such a difference between crib values of 8-8, 6-8, 7-9, 6-7, etc. when comparing averages/rankings on the other side of the board to own crib. The A-2 is a poor performer on your side of the board and produces many cribs of 10-16 on the other side of the board. You will seldom get an opponent to discard 2-3 to own crib although will hit the table quickly on the other side of the board. If you would like to know more about discard frequency rates, email raswino29@outlook.com Ras2829 says: BTW when I refer to "scant empirical evidence" that means that I have less than 1,000 samples. With all of those discards shown above, have thousands of samples. Now if you want to know what 5-5 averages to opponent and the frequency of that discard, have only tried it 50 times and thus recorded. So I would say based on "scant empirical evidence". If you want to hit a thousand samples, go to it and will take your word on the results. The last two times I tossed 5-5 to opponent that lovely discard produced a combined total of 51 points (28+23). JQT says: And if we're not mistaken, just for complete comprehensiveness, "The last two times [you] tossed 5-5 to [your] opponent that lovely discard produced a combined total of 51 points (28+23) [... and resulted in one deceased opponent]." Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: The story is worth re-telling though "old hands" like you have heard it several times. So might repeat next on my 85th birthday and pick up some new listeners. |
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dec 6352 votes Joined: April 2008 |
Wednesday 4:02 AM
One more diamond might be a lil different. J-5 for me over 7-8. dec |
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JQT 4143 votes Joined: October 2008 |
Wednesday 4:35 AM
As First Dealer, I prefer pegging with Keep (2 4 7 8), and I also prefer Toss (5 J) in my Crib.
A few other places on the board, I may choose Toss (7 8), or in an Endgame, I might even look at Toss (4 5). |
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Eolus619 1336 votes Joined: June 2020 |
Wednesday 4:59 AM
The reasons for a J-5 discard ..see above. My hand + crib already get me past Colvert’s first par hole. The cut gives me two more ..at least ..points in my crib. I am going to adopt JQT that first dealer should be in a more aggressive mode rather than be defensive. Like my kept pegging cards. Off I go on offense trying to be first deal well above 18. Eolus619 says: by the way...yesterday voting % was near the same as on 11/10. That was not the pick based on Ras’ scant empirical evidence with JQT supplying even more reasoned evidence. So be it..but I think it very worthwhile to post here what Ras said about how to evaluate a hand...this has universal and timeless value.... “In this case ,and in others ,as well the greater offense is the one that produces more points, moves one further down the board in relation to opponent. So the challenge is to retain those cards which add up to the most forward points (pegs plus hand score, minus crib score) Eolus619 says: of course , if one is dealer , then it would be + crib score rather than - crib score when Pone Mark6 says: Interesting to me that yesterday’s Solution was picked by only 7% of the Voters , down from 11% just a week earlier . I failed to remember correctly but will now - sometimes the best Offense is to Balk the Crib as strongly as you can . Offense is relative |
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Gougie00 5724 votes Joined: March 2008 |
Wednesday 5:45 AM
When in doubt Face-Five. |
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mfetchCT425 1395 votes Joined: February 2009 |
Wednesday 5:56 AM
It was close between 5-J and 7-8, but slight edge goes to 5-J for me. |
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Jazzselke 2583 votes Joined: March 2009 |
Wednesday 7:35 AM
Always wonder about this and similar hands. J5 is the third highest-valued discard, and pegging potential of 2478 seems higher than 245J. This is a good example where knowing your opponent's discard tendencies would be very valuable. Otherwise could not argue against a preference for tossing 78.Then hope for a 6 cut! Eolus619 says: Jazz’s point about 5-J value is worth remembering imo...only 3 discards to own crib average more than seven ..5-5, 2-3 & 5-J. |
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SallyAnn3 904 votes Joined: March 2020 |
Wednesday 8:15 AM
Yes! Am with the crowd of commentators today. I want the 5 in my crib as it will usually pay off more often than the 7-8. Smaller cards in hand to peg with.
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warquaker 238 votes Joined: July 2020 |
Wednesday 10:27 AM
Tossed the 87: live in hope of that 24pt crib! |
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dgergens 938 votes Joined: January 2018 |
Wednesday 11:09 AM
Thought I'd try something different today, man was I different! Was hoping pone drops a crappy 3 or 6 in my crib. Did sacrifice the magic 11, but not any points. Ras2829 says: Hi dgergens: Th 4-5 is a mighty strong discard because of all those much favored 6-X discards. Just don't think it will out-perform the better choices today of 7-8 or 5-J. |
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Mark6 702 votes Joined: June 2020 |
Wednesday 1:18 PM
In the minority big time Today so probably lost half a Point Mark6 says: I lose much more on Pegging mistakes |
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Coeurdelion 5589 votes Joined: October 2007 |
Wednesday 4:24 PM
I think it's between 5-7-8-J (2-4), 2-4-5-J (7-8) and 2-4-7-8 (5-J):
5-7-8-J: 4pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.52) = 8½pts 2-4-5-J: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 8½pts 2-4-7-8: 2pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 9pts Potential: 5-7-8-J: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 7/8pts with 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, JJJ = 20 cuts. Plus 12 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt. 2-4-5-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 6/8pts with 3333, 6666, JJJ = 11 cuts. Plus 12 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt. 2-4-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 6/7pts with 222, 3333, 444, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 24 cuts. Position: As First Dealer positional hole is 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to score the average 16pts or more. Pegging: I think all three hands will peg well playing Offense but less so playing Defense. Perhaps 2-4-5-J will perform best with the J as an out card and a 3-card magic eleven. Summary: 2-4-7-8 has the best starting value by ½ptbut it doesn't have the ¼ benefit of the nob potential. It also has the fewest cuts for improvement and the lowest maximum at 7pts. 2-4-5-J has the most cuts for improvement but 5-7-8-J has nearly as many and 20 cuts for 7/8pts. So I think I'll throw the 2-4. |
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HalscribCLX 5312 votes Joined: February 2008 |
Wednesday 4:43 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Pone's Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 % 2-4-7-8____4.65+(-1.89)+6.93=9.69____34.8____47.8 2-4-5-J____5.13+(-2.13)+6.59=9.59____36.4____48.7 5-7-8-J____6.74+(-2.20)+4.44=8.98____34.2____46.9 Defense______L9 %____L10 % 2-4-7-8_______26.8____26.4 2-4-5-J_______27.2____25.7 5-7-8-J_______27.3____27.3 2-4-7-8 is best for expected averages by 0.10pt over 2-4-5-J but 2-4-5-J is best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s by an appreciable amount. So although it's the very start of the game as the difference is very slight I'll decide basedf on the Win/Loss %s and select 7-8 to discard. After the 10S cut I'll play Defense to the lead. |
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Ras2829 5147 votes Joined: November 2008 |
Wednesday 7:00 PM
Often folks from the upper mid-west advised tossing the 7-8 from this hand or similar when dealing in preference to the 5-X. Out west, folks advised tossing the 5-X (whether J,10, K, or Q). In recent years RAS has discarded the 7-8 from this hand or similar with good results. Admittedly the difference is small. If pegs seemed to be the major issue, would play 2-4-7-8. If pegs not the major element, play the 2-4-5-J and discard 7-8 when dealing works for me. Be flexible enough to accommodate these subtle differences. As dealer of hand one, its defense from the get-go and play off the lead. Would score the 15-2 on a five or X-pointer if led. Will play the Jack on 6-7-8 lead. Would make the count 11 on an Ace lead, play the deuce on a four lead, and play the five spot on a trey. That covers most the bases. Will not pair the lead. Have a plan rather than just drop the cards willy-nilly. Don't panic when knowing of 8 points (guaranteed peg, five points in hand, and a known two points in crib). Dealer of first hand needs 7 holes to have 50/50 chance to win. If we picked up the typical 6/9 with a X-card, have a minimum of five points in crib. |
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