Wednesday 3:18 AM

What are the choices here, 5-8 or 8-9 to opponent? Value of 5-8 is 6.39 points and 8-9 is 5.89 points as a comparison. I like the double run here. Chance for 16 points and starting with 8 points rather than 7.

Wednesday 3:20 AM

We are Pone and we appear to be headed to well beyond the First Street Par Hole 18 by completion of This Deal.

Our Opponent, however, is currently the Dealer and is right AT that Par Hole 18, so the Dealer tentatively has secured having the Positional Advantage at this time. You might say we're 'Walking on Eggshells' here.

Therefore, unless the Dealer "stumbles" badly and soon, our REAL "target" is to somehow reach the Second Street Par Hole 44 by completion of This Deal, and that goal lies a very distant Twenty-Eight Holes away, definitely out of our immediate reach.

We have almost "too good of a hand" for our own good, it seems, a problem I referenced very recently on these very pages. There are two different Double Runs, which entail giving away either Toss (5 8) or Toss (5 J), so we shall definitely consider the former, and certainly avoid the latter.

We also have one very interesting "hybrid" solution: Keep (5 9 T J) and Toss (8 9), which sends a somewhat-less-dangerous discard 'over the board,' while enabling us to begin with Seven Points, only One Point less than either of the aforementioned Double Runs! I am often very fond of these "hybrid" solutions in Cribbage. Interesting!

Toss (5 8) has a Crib Value of 6.30, and Toss (8 9) has a Crib Value of 5.83 Points (Schell). Therefore, these two discards only seem to differ by just 0.47, or less than half a point! The averages however don't always actually reveal the true element of risk; but on the surface, it seems we would be 'giving up' just half a point in order to retain a FULL EXTRA POINT. What's going on here?

It turns out that Toss (8 9) varies quite a bit, depending upon which chart or what source one consults! Surprisingly, this discard is NOT listed among those which RAS has found that his Empirical Value differs significantly from the commonly-used charts. But let's at least look at what we can find about this apparent and amorphous anomaly.

As far as Toss (8 9) is concerned, as I said earlier, Schell regards it as worth 5.83 Points. Hessel, however, lists it as 5.97 Points, and Colvert has it sitting at 5.7 Points. RAS lists it at 5.89 Points, right in the middle. And C. Liam Brown places it at just 5.4 Points! Whoa: hold on there!

I believe that the Halscrib Program and its lineage of follow-on products has always used a kind of "Special Sauce" for its assessment of Crib Values, so while it's not exclusively relying upon or using any particular person or chart (that I know of), in at least its method, it is most akin to Schell, whose chart is actually a Composite (or "average of other averages") all thrust into a sort-of melting pot of ideas!

And this matters greatly today: because if we just look at Schell's numbers, the Toss (8 9) discard looks like it's possibly a bit dangerous; but if we use a more "modern" source like C. Liam Brown, it becomes much more of a "manageable" risk, especially when being compared to Toss (5 8).

Toss (8 9) poses some amount of risk, there's no doubt about that! And this means that even our "safe" idea is maybe not too safe, after all. And while Keep (5 9 T J) could in fact do very well after Eleven Cuts (555, 99, TTT, JJJ), about half of these would likely boost the Enemy Crib as well. And will it even matter, this early in the game? (I think it will, because after all: points are points.)

After Keep (9 9 T J), now we get appreciable help from Fifteen Cuts (555, 6666, 99, TTT, JJJ), and yet of these, only the 5 Card Cut really portends to help our Opponent, implying that it could seriously damage us. Thus, after Toss (5 8), we definitely lack what I like to call "Five Card Cut Insurance" today. Make a note of that.

It seems to be a manageable risk to Toss (5 8) today, but is it? I tend to fall onto the "safe" side of the fence and camp, and so I'll 'hedge' my bet today and Toss (8 9), but I realize that I could still get burned, and look bad in the process. Trust me: I'll get over it.

After the 3h Cut, which only adds One Lousy Point to our Hand, let's Lead a Lovely Jack, which is Bright Red, just like the Last Peach of Summer (a Peach that perhaps magically matches the color of your Hair?), a word which rhymes with PEAR, which is a homophone of PAIR, which is what those who retained the Double Run will be thinking of as they Lead from the 9 Card PAIR (and you thought I would never get there!). Whew, the end, almost.

Four years ago, someone from a much newer and younger generation than my own covered "Stairway to Heaven" by Led Zeppelin, a hugely-popular hit from their fourth album at the time, which was released back in 1971, the year I became a teenager.

Nothing unusual so far: that is, until you discover that the performer here in 2017 is Jadyn Rylee, a young girl from the nearest "big city" to me, Toronto Ontario, Canada; and it's now been viewed and listened to over Eight Million Times! But maybe, just maybe, you've not heard it yet.

Oh, and I almost forgot to mention: at the time of her performance, Jadyn Rylee had apparently just reached the tender age ... of eleven. https://youtu.be/_r3asKw_ghw

Wednesday 3:32 AM

As Rosemarie said the decision is the 58 or 89 discard-the 5910j starts with 1 point less but I prefer throwing 89 to 85 here-it appears as if 85 would be fairly innocuous but as Rosemarie noted above the 58 scores .5 higher on average-but Rob you’re giving up 1 point in hand retention and only getting back .5 in crib reduction-you’re down half a point-yes but I feel the 89 discard average is skewered by a few huge cribs-the 58 will get a solid 6 points just about every time-also the 89 discard in this particular hand is influenced by the negative delta of the 9 and 10 we already hold in our hand-so the normal average of 5.89 should be reduced today

Wednesday 3:57 AM

A reluctant 8-9.

Wednesday 4:06 AM

Those nines can be a real pain sometimes but I will break up the most points and still have chances at twelve and more. dec

Wednesday 4:51 AM

keeping the double run until someone convinces me otherwise

Wednesday 5:30 AM

Similar hand configuration from Saturday but position is more akin to yesterday. Tempted to keep the double run, but why give up a sure 2 points with 58. Almost offset by the danger of 89 as 78 is the most common crib throw. The deciding factor may be if you are familiar with your opponent. Some players favor retaining the 5 for pegging. For today I will avoid tossing a sure 2 points, and agree with Jame's phrase, a reluctant 89.

Wednesday 5:34 AM

Tough call today. It is unfortunate that dealer seems to have completely gained the advantage after the first deal of the game, and yet I will still be forced to throw dangerous cards in his crib. However, keeping a double run is nothing to scoff at, as we have performed at least average ourselves after the first hand. I was debating between throwing (8 9) offsuit and keeping 1 less pt, or (5 8), however (5 J) was out of the question. I eventually decided on keeping the double run and full 8 pts, as the (5 8) usually don't work all that well together, even if another face or 5 comes up on the cut, this still helps my hand, and hopefully it will prevent a "huge" crib score from happening...So let's try for the 16 or possible maximum of 17 here and go full steam ahead, because that seems to be our best way out here...Leading the 9 from the pair.

Wednesday 5:46 AM

It's close and others have outlined the merits of each toss better than I ever could.

Wednesday 6:06 AM

Favor the 8-9 toss slightly more than 5-8 today with some negative delta working for us with a 9 and 10 already out of circulation.

Wednesday 6:24 AM

It's a double run. Nothing more to say.

Wednesday 7:06 AM

The board position puzzle from yesterday and today has been an eye opener to something I should have paid a lot more attention too…that is ….if the cycles prevail ..who gets to deal first @ the very last. ..fentesk pointed this out yesterday….it is a hard thing for me to do to extrapolate 7-8-9 hands in advance ( I can do it for the next CPZ ) all the while deciding on my discard. So I ask myself, what am I trying to do long and short. My answer is ..I am trying to flip who deals first advantage current dealer has heading toward CPZ #2. In a perfect cribbage world ,I would want to be @ 42+ & have my opponent be 41(-) . That says to me I am not tossing a five to the crib. Toss the 8-9 ( good reasons given above as to why ) and see if I can accomplish the who gets 1st deal flip. If not in #2 then a must for #3.

Wednesday 7:26 AM

It looks like we are all playing the cribbage stock market today by
seeing which keep has the most return on investment and which toss has the least impact on the bottom line.

Wednesday 8:04 AM

Keep the double run and minimize the crib damage.

Wednesday 1:39 PM

The 9-9 and 6-9 toss don't scare me, but the 8/9 always does!

Wednesday 3:07 PM

I think it's between 9-10-10-J (5-8) and 5-9C-10-J (8-10):

9-9-10-J: 8pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.30) = +1¾pts

5-9C-10-J: 7pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = +2¼pts

Potential:

9-9-10-J: Improves with 555, 6666, 888, 99, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 12/15/16pts with 555, 6666, 99, 101010, JJJ = 15 cuts. Plus 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

5-9C-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 888, 99 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/12/13/14pts with 555, 99, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 15 cuts. Plus 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt

Position:

Opponent has reached 1st street positional hole but we have scored 16pts so still retain some positional advantage. I think I'll play cautious offense.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg well but I think 5-9C-10-J will have the edge.

Summary:

9-9-10-J starts with ½pt more but has fewer cuts for improvement but has 15 cuts for 12-16pts compared to 15 cuts for 10-14pts for 5-9C-10-J. So I'll throw one of the lower scoring 5-x throws 5-8.

Wednesday 3:13 PM

At 16-18* playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib__Total____W8 %____W9 %
5-9C-10-J__9.61+1.28+(-5.18)=5.71____46.4____44.7
9-9-10-J__10.50+1.04+(-6.20)=5.34____47.1____42.5

Offense_______L8 %____L9 %
5-9C-10-J______45.9____34.3
9-9-10-J_______49.0____37.2

5-9C-10-J is better for expected averages by 0.37pt. and is slightly better for Win %s and appreciably lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 8-9S to discard.

After the 3H cut I'll lead the 10 and play Defense:

Lead________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
10________________(-2.49)
J_________________(-2.53)
9_________________(-2.76)
5_________________(-3.32)

Wednesday 8:59 PM

HalscribCLX shows all the numbers with which I agree, choice of offense, offense, and switching to defense with the lead of the 10. Let me share my thought processes with you. Looking at the pegs, seemingly close, dealer has a sizeable advantage needing next deal in2nd Street CPZ 43-47, 25 holes away. N/d is in the middle of nowhere, looking to deal form hole 25 or 26 on average. So when considering that, am thinking best thing can do is to shave a few holes from dealer advantage. That's offense! Then n/d looks at the 6 cards, thinks in terms of combined values rather than hand score alone, can't give up the five spot with any card. So that comes down to an offense choice (pegs, hand score, less crib score) 5-9-10-J represents the best alternative. Once seeing the starter card, knowing that it adds only a single point to my hand, downshift to defense to include the pegging. That indicates lead the 10, the middle card of the three card sequence, minimizing chance of dealer to pick up a run by n/d holding consecutive cards. That decision to avoid pegs also determines the second card played. Get rid of the lone five if it appears reasonably safe to do so. Leading the mid cad of a three card sequence is good pegging strategy for most three card sequences. The consider the remaining card which poses the greatest danger for dealer pegs (those will usually look like a lone A, 2, 3, 4 or 5). The five is so key as it scores with A-9, 2-8, 3-4, 3-7, 4-6, 5-5, 6-7, and all those X-pointers. A single Ace or deuce is nearly as bad as small cards often stack up near end of pegging sequence. So though single trey or four can get hung up, the n/d Ace or deuce is more often squeezed in for 31-4, 31-8, even an occasional 31-14.