January 9, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
92-92*  ?
76%
7%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 220
Andy (muesli64)
1898 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Saturday 3:33 AM
Not keen on throwing 6-8 and letting dealer right back into it. So throwing 4-10. Still need a bit of help from the cut and pegging to get to 96 plus.
james500
2741 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 3:38 AM
I agree with Andy, 6-8 could come back to haunt us. No need to risk anything here, only four holes away from my minimum target.

A48T increases in value after every cut, very little synergy between a 6 and 10. 4 lead.
Rosemarie44
1789 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 4:10 AM
I could be all wrong in my choices for today's hand but this was my first decision after viewing the hand. Hold 6 points and a possible increase in value to 8, 10 12 points (24 cuts).
dec
5135 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 4:20 AM
Well I meant to do A-4-8-10. Wanted to least get to 96 or more. 25,26, theory whatever you subscribe to.. I am always fearful of 7-8 being thrown into a crib then again 4-5 or 5-6 always a threat also. Two more hands after this? dec
Gougie00
4522 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 4:53 AM
I need the points.
warquaker
164 votes

Joined: July 2020

   
Saturday 5:30 AM
My idea was to balk opponent's crib, take my 2 (probably 4 pts with the cut) pts and get my 3 counts and win.
Eolus619
230 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Saturday 5:35 AM
well...after again failing a Ras puzzle about total combined hand value yesterday I am sensitive to yet another of his lessons. Dealer is dealing short 4 & Pone wants the deck first @ 96+. Dec makes the point “should this be game extended two more hands “ after this with current Pone again counting first. With Pone needing 29 points to win I say yes. The keep of A-4-8-10 gets help from ALL cuts. The 6-10 should dampen the crib. The K cut gets me to 96...at least...and I will then have two more hands to get to 121. Ras I posted late yesterday to you about JQT Facebook..He has one but no activity since 11/20/20. And no current active contacts .
glmccuskey
3319 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Saturday 6:13 AM
I need a few points or pegs and I like the pegging power of A-4-6 as non dealer.
mfetchCT425
741 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 6:17 AM
Like to be aggressive and ensure I’m as far down 4th street as possible. I’d rather lose being aggressive than being passive in these positional situations. 6-8 can be dangerous, but also completely misses popular dealer tosses such as 2-3 and 5-X.
RubyTuesday
640 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Saturday 7:15 AM
If I hadn’t thrown 6 8 I’d have ‘definitely’ lost points - this way I ‘might’ lose points.
Jazzselke
1693 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Saturday 7:45 AM
Like the pegging prospects of A4610 but too many cuts keep it at 2 points. With A4810 we are at 96 with no peg points and minimum help from the cut. If we were at Hole 90 or worse I would then hold A41010.
mrob2199
554 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 8:28 AM
Completely agree with Mike today -the 6-8 discard can be dangerous but it completely kills 2 of the most popular 4th street dealer discards—2-3 and 5-x-if we break up our hand to avoid the 6-8 we might get to peg 97 or 98-so just ask yourself this question-have you lost more games because you dealt yourself a bad hand from 22 or 23 out,or you threw 6-8 and dealer scored a 12 point crib? In my case I would say the first case wins that in a landslide-a lot of players make the mistake of trying to frame every game in the same box-that if you play perfect positional play you’ll put yourself at peg 95 dealing and all will be well with the world-if you do that you will still only be 50 percent to win the game!!!! So would you want to play an “apparent “ perfect game and then be only 50 percent to win it? Doesn’t seem like a great overall strategy to me-play the percentages and try to get a few pegs ahead of position for your last deal
Cribsurfer
553 votes

Joined: September 2016

   
Saturday 11:27 AM
They are a little short but i'm gonna be short if I don't keep some points here.
Gonna have to toss the 6-8 to give me a chance to win this game.
Coeurdelion
4441 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 4:26 PM
I think it's between A-4-10-10 (6-8), A-4-8-10 (6-10) and A-6-8-10 (4-10):

A-4-10-10: 6pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = +½pt

A-4-8-10: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -2¼pts

A-6-8-10: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.53) = -2½pts

Potential:

A-4-10-10: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 10/12pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 1010 = 12 cuts.

A-4-8-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6pts with AAA, 444, 9999, 1010 = 12 cuts.

A-6-8-10: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999, 1010 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 5/6/7pts with AAA, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We're 9pts short of where we would like to be while pone is 4pts short of 3rd street positional hole so I'll play Defense and try to extend the game.

Pegging:

I think playing Defense these will all peg well but perhaps A-4-10-10 will peg best.

Summary:

A-4-10-10 is 2¾/3pts better than the other two and although A-4-8-10 has many more cuts for improvement A-4-10-10 has a much higher maximum with 12 cuts for 10/12pts. Also it should peg best so I'll throw the 6-8.
HalscribCLX
4193 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 4:33 PM
At 92-92* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense____Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total____W2 %____W3 %
A-4-10-10___7.91+(-3.20)+(-5.39)=(-0.68)__24.4____56.3
A-4-8-10____4.43+(-2.50)+(-4.18)=(-2.25)__11.4____48.3
A-6-8-10____4.04+(-2.80)+(-4.31)=(-3.07)__10.8____44.5

Defense______L2 %____L3 %
A-4-10-10_____28.4____32.3
A-4-8-10______24.2____42.5
A-6-8-10______24.8____46.2

A-4-10-10 is best for expected averages by 1.57pts and is very much best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 6-8 to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead the 4 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead______________Net Pegging Pts.
4_____________________(-1.22)
10____________________(-1.44)
A_____________________(-1.51)