January 9, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
92-92*  ?
76%
76%
7%
7%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 220
Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2344 votes)

Saturday 3:33 AM
Not keen on throwing 6-8 and letting dealer right back into it. So throwing 4-10. Still need a bit of help from the cut and pegging to get to 96 plus.
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4358 votes)

Saturday 3:38 AM
I agree with Andy, 6-8 could come back to haunt us. No need to risk anything here, only four holes away from my minimum target.

A48T increases in value after every cut, very little synergy between a 6 and 10. 4 lead.
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2254 votes)

Saturday 4:10 AM
I could be all wrong in my choices for today's hand but this was my first decision after viewing the hand. Hold 6 points and a possible increase in value to 8, 10 12 points (24 cuts).
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6870 votes)

Saturday 4:20 AM
Well I meant to do A-4-8-10. Wanted to least get to 96 or more. 25,26, theory whatever you subscribe to.. I am always fearful of 7-8 being thrown into a crib then again 4-5 or 5-6 always a threat also. Two more hands after this? dec
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6184 votes)

Saturday 4:53 AM
I need the points.
warquaker

Joined: July 2020 (238 votes)

Saturday 5:30 AM
My idea was to balk opponent's crib, take my 2 (probably 4 pts with the cut) pts and get my 3 counts and win.
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1773 votes)

Saturday 5:35 AM
well...after again failing a Ras puzzle about total combined hand value yesterday I am sensitive to yet another of his lessons. Dealer is dealing short 4 & Pone wants the deck first @ 96+. Dec makes the point “should this be game extended two more hands “ after this with current Pone again counting first. With Pone needing 29 points to win I say yes. The keep of A-4-8-10 gets help from ALL cuts. The 6-10 should dampen the crib. The K cut gets me to 96...at least...and I will then have two more hands to get to 121. Ras I posted late yesterday to you about JQT Facebook..He has one but no activity since 11/20/20. And no current active contacts .
Ras2829 says: Hi Eolus619: Thanks for making that effort regardng JQT. Years ago I had his E-mail address. No longer the case.
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4490 votes)

Saturday 6:13 AM
I need a few points or pegs and I like the pegging power of A-4-6 as non dealer.
mfetchCT425

Joined: February 2009 (1642 votes)

Saturday 6:17 AM
Like to be aggressive and ensure I’m as far down 4th street as possible. I’d rather lose being aggressive than being passive in these positional situations. 6-8 can be dangerous, but also completely misses popular dealer tosses such as 2-3 and 5-X.
Eolus619 says: morning Mike...in this situation what would the dealer score need to be for you to turn defensive ..thx
mfetchCT425 says: Hi Bruce, it’s more me playing my position first here. I would feel much more comfortable winning this game if I can get close to the upper 90s or low 100s vs 96-97. If I was already in a decent 4th street position (ex, 95-99 at the least), then I would have definitely thrown defensively with the dealer in a similar position as in this puzzle. Hope that helps and not sure that’s the best strategy, but again I’m generally on the aggressive side in these scenarios.
Eolus619 says: Mike...food for thought for sure ..still trying to understand the nuisances of board position ..a LOT of possible position combinations over a 121 point board.!
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1196 votes)

Saturday 7:15 AM
If I hadn’t thrown 6 8 I’d have ‘definitely’ lost points - this way I ‘might’ lose points.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2871 votes)

Saturday 7:45 AM
Like the pegging prospects of A4610 but too many cuts keep it at 2 points. With A4810 we are at 96 with no peg points and minimum help from the cut. If we were at Hole 90 or worse I would then hold A41010.
Eolus619 says: Dan..very helpful post on board position and how that would change your hold ..thx
mrob2199

Joined: February 2009 (1705 votes)

Saturday 8:28 AM
Completely agree with Mike today -the 6-8 discard can be dangerous but it completely kills 2 of the most popular 4th street dealer discards—2-3 and 5-x-if we break up our hand to avoid the 6-8 we might get to peg 97 or 98-so just ask yourself this question-have you lost more games because you dealt yourself a bad hand from 22 or 23 out,or you threw 6-8 and dealer scored a 12 point crib? In my case I would say the first case wins that in a landslide-a lot of players make the mistake of trying to frame every game in the same box-that if you play perfect positional play you’ll put yourself at peg 95 dealing and all will be well with the world-if you do that you will still only be 50 percent to win the game!!!! So would you want to play an “apparent “ perfect game and then be only 50 percent to win it? Doesn’t seem like a great overall strategy to me-play the percentages and try to get a few pegs ahead of position for your last deal
Cribsurfer

Joined: September 2016 (956 votes)

Saturday 11:27 AM
They are a little short but i'm gonna be short if I don't keep some points here.
Gonna have to toss the 6-8 to give me a chance to win this game.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Saturday 4:26 PM
I think it's between A-4-10-10 (6-8), A-4-8-10 (6-10) and A-6-8-10 (4-10):

A-4-10-10: 6pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = +½pt

A-4-8-10: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -2¼pts

A-6-8-10: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.53) = -2½pts

Potential:

A-4-10-10: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 10/12pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 1010 = 12 cuts.

A-4-8-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6pts with AAA, 444, 9999, 1010 = 12 cuts.

A-6-8-10: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999, 1010 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 5/6/7pts with AAA, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We're 9pts short of where we would like to be while pone is 4pts short of 3rd street positional hole so I'll play Defense and try to extend the game.

Pegging:

I think playing Defense these will all peg well but perhaps A-4-10-10 will peg best.

Summary:

A-4-10-10 is 2¾/3pts better than the other two and although A-4-8-10 has many more cuts for improvement A-4-10-10 has a much higher maximum with 12 cuts for 10/12pts. Also it should peg best so I'll throw the 6-8.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5714 votes)

Saturday 4:33 PM
At 92-92* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense____Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total____W2 %____W3 %
A-4-10-10___7.91+(-3.20)+(-5.39)=(-0.68)__24.4____56.3
A-4-8-10____4.43+(-2.50)+(-4.18)=(-2.25)__11.4____48.3
A-6-8-10____4.04+(-2.80)+(-4.31)=(-3.07)__10.8____44.5

Defense______L2 %____L3 %
A-4-10-10_____28.4____32.3
A-4-8-10______24.2____42.5
A-6-8-10______24.8____46.2

A-4-10-10 is best for expected averages by 1.57pts and is very much best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 6-8 to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead the 4 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead______________Net Pegging Pts.
4_____________________(-1.22)
10____________________(-1.44)
A_____________________(-1.51)
wasa says: Wait, A-4-T-T is HIGHEST for lost percentage at 28.4% within 2 hands. It is only lowest for loss percentage IF and only IF we make it to 3 hands. Going to have to agree to disagree on this. Looking at the numbers, wile A-4-T-T has the best "win" at 24.4%, it has the worst loss at 28.4%.
Ras2829 says: It does seem counter-intuitive that A-4-10-10 with 6/8 represents a SAFE strategy.