January 10, 2021
38% | |||||
37% | |||||
18% | |||||
2% | |||||
2% | |||||
0% | |||||
| Total votes: 221 | |||||
|
Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
Sunday 3:12 AM
Holding 7 points to start with a possible maximum of 16 points with 12 cuts (QQQ; 444, 666; 555.) |
|
mrob2199 1433 votes Joined: February 2009 |
Sunday 3:22 AM
The 4567 pegging combination as dealer is just too powerful to break up-never thrilled about throwing ace7 to my own crib-too many zero and 2 results-also this hold opens us up to the bingo cut of a 4 SallyAnn3 says: Ok Mr. Chess Man--please lay out the pegging scenario for me, since I can't think 4 moves ahead like you do :) mrob2199 says: This hold pegs well versus pone hands such as pictures and a five,or middle card hands in particular |
|
james500 3921 votes Joined: June 2013 |
Sunday 3:24 AM
I'll go with A7, although I think there's a case to be made for both of AQ and A4.
5 reply to a led X. Hopefully I'll get 15/2 and 31/2. |
|
Andy (muesli64) 2223 votes Joined: August 2009 |
Sunday 4:35 AM
Statistics favour the A-7 throw. |
|
dec 6356 votes Joined: April 2008 |
Sunday 5:08 AM
I play to my strength, pegging with the hand I keep and seeing what position I am at I would like to peg offensive here. Yes I have more faith the Q-A might get some points compared to that hit or miss A-7. Like the more sixteen pointers possible with this keep in the main hand. dec |
|
Gougie00 5728 votes Joined: March 2008 |
Sunday 5:28 AM
The 456 stays together, so its a question of what gets put in the crib. Neither A7 or AQ excite me, but I like 4567 more than 456Q. With this cluster, its offense to the lead. |
|
Eolus619 1340 votes Joined: June 2020 |
Sunday 6:24 AM
First..about yesterday’s comments from Hal & Coeurdelion ..Hal..Like wasa, i am not sure how a keep can be BOTH best for win and worst for loss. I also do not have enough “evidence” to grasp how a keep, as Pone , can produce an expected 3.2 pegging points while playing SAFE. As to Coeurdelion ...I do not understand this ... “We're 9pts short of where we would like to be while pone is 4pts short of 3rd street positional hole so I'll play Defense and try to extend the game. “....i am not familiar with a par hole of 101 and I am on 4th street once I cross 90...correct? Also I am Pone in this puzzle. Ras..or others ...a brief explanation to straighten me out would be appreciated. ..Now for today’s puzzle. Jazz summits another...the 4-5-6 & “ ten” is usually the best answer until it isn’t. Rob, dec & Gougie00 explain why it isn’t ...as for me... A-7 is not a great toss to my own crib....but I am staying with my 4-5-6-“ten” with 36 cuts to improve. AND..i do not like this board position ..while I am ahead...my opponent will deal first from above 44...so work to be done for me. Thanks for the puzzle challenge Jazz.. I wait to see if my keep is or is not the answer. Hillchem says: Lots of great questions. I'll field the "how a keep, as Pone , can produce an expected 3.2 pegging points while playing SAFE." -- The Halscrib software first makes a decision whether to play Offense, Optimal, or Defense. The calculations that it does after that follow from those decisions. The points that are positive are points that we gain. The points that are negative represent the dealer's points. If it determines that we should be playing offensive, it determines the number of points that we should expect to earn in the pegging and hand, and subtracts the dealer's crib. If it chooses an optimal strategy, it takes your hand value, adds the net or difference between the dealer pegging points and our pegging points, and then subtracts the dealer's crib points. In the example yesterday, the software advises defense, so it not concerned with our pegging points. It takes are expected hand value (7.91 for us) and subtracts the dealer's pegging (3.20 points for the dealer) and subtracts the dealer's crib (5.39). The 3.2 points that the dealer will get is higher than some of the other choices because with A-4-10-10, we are left with less wiggle room. The dealer will often peg some points. If we had kept A-4-6-8, the dealer would likely get less. However the software's final decision sees it keeping A-4-10-10, mainly because of the points that we earn will be worth the risk that the dealer might get an extra point or two in the pegging. Eolus619 says: Thank you ...as I am a player who needs HELP your explanation is very HELPFUL...thx for taking time to reply...your comments go into my notes Hillchem says: You're welcome. Since you appreciated my response there, I'll take a stab at another: "i am not sure how a keep can be BOTH best for win and worst for loss."
The program calculates the probability that the each player will have greater than or equal to 121 points by the end of a particular deal. In this case, at 92-92*, there is very little chance that either player will be out in this deal. So the data starts with the second deal. The dealer needs 29 points to win. They will likely not get it as dealer, but in the next hand, they might be 26 points further at 118. There is also the probability that they would be at 117, or 119, or 120, 121, 122, etc. The probabilities of each of those outcomes would form a bell curve related to adding this one: https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/uploads/5/6/7/4/56741021/lesson7-4.pdf to this one: https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/uploads/5/6/7/4/56741021/lesson7-6.pdf . The program has calculated that the probability that the dealer will have greater than or equal to 121 is 28.4% if we give them 6-8 in the crib. If make a more defensive toss, (like 6-10), we can lower that probability to 24.2%. Thus, around 75% of the time, the current dealer will be short of winning after two deals. If we look to the deal after that (deal #3), that dealer will be dealing from close to 121, with the probabilities decreasing as dealer is further away (119, 118, 117, 116, etc). So that dealer will almost certainly be out following the 3rd deal. However, by the third deal, we will likely be out. We can expect that the most likely result after three deals is that we will have 36 more points. Thus, if you look at the dealer probability of a win, it would be a slim chance that the dealer wins in the pegging or the slim chance that the dealer counts their hand after we have counted ours and somehow fallen short. The dealer will count their hands only if we fall short. At the same time, the probability that we as pone fall short with A-4-10-10 is 75.6% after two deals and still a sizable 43.7% after three deals. That is why we see the somewhat conflicting advice, that we must play to ensure that we score points as well as play to ensure that the dealer does not. --- As would be expected, for any particular deal, the program will never have WIN% + LOSS% be greater than 100%. In this case (again for A-4-10-10) in deal 3, 56.3 + 32.3 = 88.6%. So the program also suggests that there will be an 11.4% probability the game goes into a fourth deal. With a more defensive toss, we will be less likely to lose, but also less likely to win by the third deal. Hillchem says: The graphs are from DeLynn Colvert's "Play Winning Cribbage". The files are from Ras' instructional series. Hillchem says: The Halscrib software data looks like this: https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aovx3KOESKAuhMB1rqxyV_ne7yM75w?e=DPdSYL for the expected points, and this: https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aovx3KOESKAuhMBz_wJPKKpbmCeAog?e=kngbdh for the win loss probabilities. Ras2829 says: HI Hillchem: An excellent attempt to simplify the complicated. Very appreciative of your effort to enlighten others. Hillchem says: Everyone here is incredibly thankful I'm sure that Coeurdelion transcribes all that data for us daily. Hillchem says: The Halscrib program also gives this one from yesterday.
https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aovx3KOESKAuhMB0V4Neo5nYiTPjBg?e=8dQfJO
- - This is an overall probability of winning from this point in the game before the toss (if I'm understanding things right in the software). It gives us a 32.3% probability of winning the game. Hillchem says: You're welcome. :) Eolus619 says: How very interesting..almost fascinating..to see the flow.... from data from real games...then the logic applied ..then the computation of the % result.Really good stuff indeed. This has given me an idea...I might suggest to the ACC that a player be allowed a "life line call." in a tight game situation...... like in the old TV quiz show....Do you want to want to be a Millionaire. I used to think my call would be to Ras....But now I think I would be better calling Hal!...thank you for your time and understandable explanation. Eolus619 says: Most certainly I stand with Ras..really with all us I am quite sure...being thankful for Hal and Coeurdelion work and postings. I certainly look forward to days end on CHOD! Ras2829 says: Any support for the genius of Hal Mueller and the wonder of Coeurdlelion's cribbage analysis and insights over the past few decades is fully acknowledged and appreciated by me. With few deviations, we've been on the same page for a long time. |
|
mfetchCT425 1397 votes Joined: February 2009 |
Sunday 6:43 AM
I like A-7 to my crib a bit more than A-Q. We have the 4-5-6 which can get us some needed pegs. Will peg aggressively here to try to get to at least 44 before the hand counts. Nice puzzle Dan as this combo seems to appear quite often. |
|
zeke76 1394 votes Joined: August 2018 |
Sunday 6:47 AM
My thoughts align with Gougie’s. |
|
SallyAnn3 908 votes Joined: March 2020 |
Sunday 7:33 AM
JUst seems to be more cut combos with this hand, but wondered about the pegging power of the 4-5-6-7. Just hated that Q-7 to my crib SallyAnn3 says: GOOD LUCK to all of you who are playing in the NCD starting today. It's been a ton of work--especially for Teri--but the reward was seeing so many people sign up for an inaugural evernt--especially online. 133 players! 31for14 says: Sally I have to agree with HR on this one. Which isn't unusual. Thanks for all you are doing for internet cribbage. SallyAnn3 says: You're welcome :) Especially nice from a BoD member and director of the largest live tournament in the world....
|
|
glmccuskey 4099 votes Joined: April 2011 |
Sunday 8:10 AM
I like middle one and little one in the crib. Being short on 2nd street and my opponent approaching idea position it’s offense to the lead SallyAnn3 says: You taught me that here...middle one and little one :) |
|
dgergens 938 votes Joined: January 2018 |
Sunday 9:19 AM
Very interesting. Having '456' should be kept together espoused so often 456Q was my first choice sine A7 is better than AQ in the crib and you get one more starting point. But A4 in the crib gives same starting points, plus upside potential in the crib, and still have magic 11 in hand. So, I tried this. Looking forward to numbers and discussion. |
|
Hillchem 2910 votes Joined: April 2015 |
Sunday 12:15 PM
While I'm typing, I want to give you a heads up on tomorrow's puzzle. I don't know what it will be because it was submitted by my 11-year-old son. He was playing the CPU on his phone app. He decided to put it out to the group to see what everyone thinks.
I expect that it might be a puzzle that will get complete agreement among the posters here who are among the very best. However, I wouldn't want to completely overlook other users of this site. The voters who do not post are often not at that master level. I took up cribbage about 10 years ago and I can definitely remember that the first couple years of using this site before I even made an account here. My goal might be to just identify any of the top three hands or later to identify all of the top three hands. My son is in that stage of development. When he is dealt a hand, he will still completely miss some of the tosses that should be considered. Or, other times, he will focus on a single card that might be the starter card. He'll pick a single rank and decide that if that card comes up, which hand would it benefit the most. So in conclusion, please be gentle tomorrow. He's looking forward to reading the comments. mrob2199 says: Hill please tell your son that all questions on this site are good questions and we all want to wish him luck as a potential cribbage star! |
|
cribbagepogo 3251 votes Joined: October 2007 |
Sunday 12:33 PM
Did anyone find out about JTQ? Eolus619 says: As I told Ras yesterday...he has a Facebook site..last post was 11/20/20....no active contacts since then bbaer1 says: He replied to a post one week ago
|
|
Jazzselke 2585 votes Joined: March 2009 |
Sunday 1:45 PM
As Mike mentions, this hand seems to come up quite often. Over the years I have asked several top-notch players their opinion, and the top 3 choices have all received support. My summary: 4567 great pegging, but not crazy about AX; 567X great to throw A4, but 567X only a maximum of 12 or 13,instead of 16 or 17; and 456X a reliable,versatile hold but A7 not as valuable as A4. So a tough call that could depend on whether offense or defense is the chosen strategy. Ras2829 says: Hi jazzselke; Like your thinking though still wringing my hands over the choice. If choosing offense, this would seem to be the best approach. Ras2829 says: Hi jazzselke; Like your thinking though still wringing my hands over the choice. If choosing offense, this would seem to be the best approach. |
|
Coeurdelion 5592 votes Joined: October 2007 |
Sunday 3:36 PM
I think it's between 4-5-6-Q (A-7), A-4-5-6 (7-Q), 5-6-7-Q (A-4) and 4-5-6-7 (A-Q):
4-5-6-Q: 7pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.85) = 10¾pts A-4-5-6: 5pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.23) = 8¼pts 5-6-7-Q: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 10¼pts 4-5-6-7: 6pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.42) = 9½pts Potential: 4-5-6-Q: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 9999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, QQQ = 12 cuts. A-4-5-6: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/12/14pts with 3333, 444, 555, 666, 9999 + 15xXs = 32 cuts. 5-6-7-Q: Improves with 2222, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, QQQ = 19 cuts. 4-5-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 9/12/14/16pts with 3333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888 = 20 cuts. Position: We're 4pts short of 2nd street positional hole but Pone is 22pts short of where they would like to be so I'll play Defense. Pegging: A-4-5-6 will peg very well with low cards and a 3-card magic eleven plus the 5 and a broken 5. 4-5-6-7, 5-6-7-Q and A-4-5-6 have more cuts for improvement Summary: 4-5-6-Q is best for starting value by 1¼pt over 4-5-6-7, ½pt over 5-6-7-Q and 2½pts over A-4-5-6. However, A-4-5-6, 5-6-7-Q and 4-5-6-7 have more cuts for improvement and many more for an average/very good hand. So I think it may be close but I think the better potential of 5-6-7-Q will catch up the ½pt so I'll select A-4 to discard. |
|
HalscribCLX 5315 votes Joined: February 2008 |
Sunday 4:26 PM
At 40*-38 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging (cautious offense):
________________Net Optimal____Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 % 5-6-7-Q_____7.87+1.80+5.32=14.99____34.9____39.4 4-5-6-Q_____9.74+1.52+3.63=14.89____35.8____40.9 4-5-6-7_____9.61+1.91+3.11=14.63____35.7____40.0 A-4-5-6_____8.91+1.63+3.07=13.61____31.5____33.2 Optimal________L6 %____L7 % 5-6-7-Q_________30.2____41.4 4-5-6-Q_________28.8____39.8 4-5-6-7_________29.7____40.6 A-4-5-6_________33.5____46.5 5-6-7-Q is best for expected averages by 0.10pt but in this board position approaching a positional hole and with the difference in expected averages being so slight perhaps the Win/Loss %s must be the deciding factor. For 4-5-6-Q the Win %s and Loss %s are both slightly more favorable so I'll select A-7 to discard. After the 2 cut I'll play Offense to the lead. |
|
Ras2829 5151 votes Joined: November 2008 |
Sunday 5:25 PM
Am choosing an offense strategy as am 3 holes short of 2nd Street CPZ (43-47). Will play on the lead which means would score 15-2 with the five on a X-lead. Won't pair the opening lead although would take 15-2 in any form offered. If pegging does not emerge, will try to hang on to the 5-Q, if opponent playing smaller cards might be able to score 15-2 and last card for three pegs after n/d plays out. That's the plan. Often when dealing three holes short on 2nd street will need to play offense for the next three hands to gain positional advantage. |
- Today's Results
- -
- Yesterday's Results
- -
- Past Results
- -
- Suggest A Hand
- About This Site
- Contact Webmaster by email: dailycribbagehand at gmail.com
- Visit our friends:
- eCribbage -
- Cribbage Pro -
- Huddle Around Games -
- Cribbage Discard Pro -
- Cribbage Corner