Monday 3:06 AM

My choice is to start with 8 points and toss A-J as this hand increases with every cut for a minimum of 10 points and the possibility to increase to a maximum of 17 points.
Holding A-2-3-3 starts with 8 points and only a cut of 5 does not increase the value. The one drawback is that this hand is closed on one end by an ace.

   

Monday 4:24 AM

With this hold a six and eight cut also gives us a dozen. Cautious offense unless you are in need of a skunk. I wouldn’t pair a 2 or 4 lead but of course would pair a three.

   

Monday 4:35 AM

2334 is the better of the two double runs, but I'm interested to see whether 233J (A4) for 6+2 has any merit.

   

Monday 4:41 AM

17 points maximum . Every cuts adds and the Jack might be a liability on the pegging. Offense on , thinking of the three thing here. dec

   

Monday 5:39 AM

   

Monday 5:49 AM

I like where I am. More importantly, I like where the pone is. Every card in the deck adds value.

   

Monday 6:10 AM

Up by 18 mean I could take some chances. I played it safe and held the hand that yields at least 10 regardless of the starter.

So much for healing the nation. Here we go again.

   

Monday 6:11 AM

I threw A 4 to my crib. I’ll be interested to see the figures later on.

   

Monday 6:11 AM

This double run has more cuts for 12+ vs the other double run option. Every cut helps as well. If a 4 is led, I would pair it with the two 3s to back us up if we are tripled. Would of course pair a 3 lead. Would play the 4 on a 2 lead.

   

Monday 6:26 AM

Going to concur with all of mikes reasons here-this is a very good puzzle Hil-not a no brainer at all

   

Monday 7:20 AM

Wanted to keep the double run... either way it's at least 10 points (hand + crib) but I think keeping the 2-3-3-4 is better for expected values (obviously the J helps in either hand or crib so need to address that when looking at expected value tables like Schell)

   

Monday 8:39 AM

Keeping in mind all of the remaining X cards, 2334 has more options than the other double run. Every starter card helps this hand in one way or another.

I don't expect the A-J to be much help, but this hand should peg well and get between holes 83-86

   

Monday 10:00 AM

Decided to not let the double run cloud my judgement. I did not sit and figure out how many discards help, that may have been a mistake. Just had feeling A4 in the crib would be good.

   

Monday 10:23 AM

I'm gonna put A-J in my crib and try to maintain my nice lead.

   

Monday 11:05 AM

Ditto with the majority.

   

Monday 11:47 AM

At hole 67, after seeing the cards the choice is all-out offense. Same song once seeing the starter card. Move down the board. If you accept those premises, the larger double run fills the bill. Many folks do think of the !-4 and mentally compare that to the 2-3. Of course, those two choices are miles apart. In addition to tearing up a potentially strong hand with the A-4 toss, dealer loses much of the pegging potential. BTW there are 20 discard options between the 2-3 2/91 and the A-4 22/91. There are less than ten discards that dealer can make which are worth a sacrifice in hand score to make. None look like the A-4. If you would like to know what those discards look like and how much dealer can sacrifice in hand score to place them in crib, Email raswino29@outlook.com

   

Monday 4:05 PM

I think there are three possible hands - 2-3-3-4 (A-J), A-2-3-3 (4-J) and 2-3-3-J (A-4):

2-3-3-4: 8pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.65) = 11¾pts

A-2-3-3: 8pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.88) = 11¾pts

2-3-3-J: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 11¼pts

Potential:

2-3-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/16/17pts with 222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts.

A-2-3-3: Improves with AAA, 222, 33, 444, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 +15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/15/16pts with AAA, 222, 33, 9999 + 15xXs = 27 cuts.

2-3-3-J: Improves with AAA, 222, 33, 444, 5555, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 12pts with AAA, 222, 33, 444, JJJ = 14 cuts. Plus 12 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Position:

We're 3pts short of 3rd street positional hole while Pone is 41pts short of where they would like to be. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 2-3-3-J would peg best with the J as an escape card.

Summary:

2-3-3-4 is joint best for starting value by ½pt and 2-3-3-4 has guaranteed improvement and 39 cuts for 12-17pts. It has the best maximum at 17pts and although it's not ideal for pegging Defense I think it will be best. So I'll throw A-J to our crib.

   

Monday 4:23 PM

At 67*-45 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
2-3-3-4____12.43+3.78+3.45=19.66____48.3____90.7
A-2-3-3____11.83+3.61+3.59=19.03____46.6____89.8
2-3-3-J_____9.65+3.15+5.32=18.12____43.4____89.2

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
2-3-3-4________1.0_____4.2
A-2-3-3________1.0_____4.3
2-3-3-J________0.9_____4.2

2-3-3-4 is best for expected averages by 0.63pt and is appreciably best for Win %s although 2-3-3-J is very slightly lowest for Loss % I'll select A-J to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.