January 12, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by SallyAnn3
106-107*  ?
43%
18%
14%
12%
4%
2%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 244
SallyAnn3I think it would be helpful to use this box to say what the actual cut was. For this, it was a 4, and the game :)
james500
2741 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 3:17 AM
I want the double run that has two "fives" should an X card be cut, which will happen roughly one third of the time.

Needing to peg three, I'm in two minds whether I should lead my 3 from the 3-2 combo, which also leaves me with a small pair I might get in back to back later on if an X reply isn't forthcoming, or whether I should lead a 2 to leave me with three differently ranked cards to better respond to Dealer's initial reply. I'll try the 3.
Rosemarie44
1789 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:17 AM
IMO this is my choice for retention and a safer discard of 2-5 to opponent. Every cut increases the value of this hand for a minimum of 10 to 18 points. Appears to be a close call.
mrob2199
554 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 3:48 AM
I’m going all out to go out here -this hold has the most cuts to get us at least 12,with a very reasonable chance to peg 3-if we need to peg 3 I would lead the 4-many times it draws a 9 response which would give us an immediate 15-if dealer has hands such as a 5 and 3 pictures or a double run of picture cards-very reasonable holds from this position,we will peg the points we need with the 4 lead
dec
5135 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:54 AM
4 lead for possible end pegging if we get a cut for twelve. Eight cuts for game cut. dec
Andy (muesli64)
1898 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 4:48 AM
Best to throw 4-5. Yields most points in hand then. Peg with some confidence.
cwed
1238 votes

Joined: October 2014

   
Tuesday 5:26 AM
The two extra points that come from this hold with a 6-8-9-X cut may be extremely vital as I try to peg out on the next deal.
zeke76
828 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Tuesday 5:47 AM
Learned something today.
HfxKen
255 votes

Joined: February 2020

   
Tuesday 5:53 AM
I know the pair of dueces = 2 points , but I just couldn't toss the 5. Maybe I should have
mfetchCT425
741 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 5:56 AM
Like this hold for best chance to get out or close to out. Not going to be concerned with the dealer’s crib here with them being only 14 out. We need to try and win this game on this hand count. Like Rob’s and Dan’s logic above with the 4 lead. Not only does it camouflage our hand, it also keeps our pair of 2s for a chance to use them at the end for the much needed 3 pegs.
Gougie00
4522 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 6:02 AM
I bet the house by tossing the 45. I was thinking about leading the 2 because I have 2 of them, and the dealer might play a 9 to make it 11 and I could 15 that.

Rob thinks the dealer has a 9 as well. Interesting that he plays it differently. He wins tournaments while I am playing in the Consy.

Thank you to anyone jumping to my defense. I will continue on occasion to mention something I find newsworthy in my comments.
RubyTuesday
640 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Tuesday 6:13 AM
2 5 to dealer’s crib. Was surprised to see this score less than 2 2 in the discard tables.
Jazzselke
1693 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 7:18 AM
Most chances for 12, we need to go out, so throw to opponent not a consideration. And great cards for pegging as already detailed, including the 4-card 11.
Eolus619
230 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Tuesday 7:36 AM
Thank you Sally for this puzzle. Being able to correctly to solve this puzzle clearly represents to me the chasm that exists between a successful tournament player and one who is just passing time @ the kitchen table [ which is where I am trying to advance from!] . It is a win or go home board position for Pone. The question is how to cobble together 15 needed points. It seems best to try for a 12+ point hand and peg what is left over. Three double run choices are obvious….keep 3-4-4-5 or 2-2-3-4 or 2-3-4-4. . Now the chasm..which hold [ quick now be quick!] has the most cuts to produce 12+ points for these keeps. For 3-4-4-5 the obvious help comes from a 3,4,5, & 6. A deuce helps but is harder to add the hand. Its not being able to quickly and accurately see the value of 7 or 8 that creates the chasm. For the 2-2-3-4 the cuts of 2-3-4 are obvious help. The 6 plus ALL the ten value cards should be obvious. It’s also not recognizing the 8 & 9 that creates the chasm. For the 2-3-4-4 the obvious help comes from 2-3-4-5-6. The chasm is not also recognizing the value of the 8 & 9. Plus while all the ten value cards help this keep NONE adds more than two. What is so hard about realizing a keep o with a lone 5 or 2-3 + a ten cut produces 2 more points while a keep with a 2-2-3 + 10 produces 4 more points. Recognizing all “this” may be as simple as what Jazz once said…. I need to play a lot more hands against good players…that is called gaining experience! What triggered my comment dump was seeing the hold from the best players after I voted. I think I feel better now…maybe somewhat but at least better.


HK343
178 votes

Joined: July 2012

   
Tuesday 7:54 AM
If playing for the face cut, need to hold the hand that gives us a dozen. Back the dealer up five holes and it's a different story.
SallyAnn3
251 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Tuesday 8:43 AM
I went this way because too many cuts only give me 10 points. I also didn't want to toss the 5 in case I came up short, to not help the dealer. As it turns out, everyone wins today's decision since a 4 was the real cut :)
dgergens
749 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Tuesday 9:02 AM
Do, die, or get close enough to peg out next hand w/o losing the game this hand. In this position we will require some amount of fortune to smile on us. Meanwhile, I believe 2234 has the edge over 3445 in offense mode, but I don't 'know' like some of the other players here. Always looking forward to learning something.
JRCeagle78
1005 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Tuesday 10:23 AM
I was hoping for a more difficult hand for my #1000 blog, but you have to take what is offered.

The question comes down to which double run will give you the most options, especially as pone. The 5, 7 and Ace give you the least amount of points at 10. All other starter cards will give you 12 or more. If the 5 is cut the game will definitely end on this deal, in your favor or the dealer.

I'll lead the 4 and hopefully have a chance to save my pair for some end of play pegging. (i.e. 31 for 4). The dealer should play a defensive high rank on the 4 to limit the pone pegging.
GNXXXVI
50 votes

Joined: August 2020

   
Tuesday 11:17 AM
The fastest way to 12 for sure with maybe a 2-2 trap at the end.
fourthirty
20 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Tuesday 4:04 PM
Would tossing the twos give you the best shot at a big hand to close the game? Or keep the twos and try to maximize pegging points?
Ras2829
3979 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 4:14 PM
Got to keep the smaller double run in this case since if not cutting 2, 3, or 4, will need to peg for a win. So lead the four, which forces a five off the play and this nifty 4-card magic 11 will then score a 31-4 with back to-back deuce. It might work with a trey lead too, as some cagey dealers will drop the five on a trey lead, believing n/d would more likely have deuces with a trey than a four spot. In that case n/d will score the three pegs early with 3-4-5 run. The preferred lead is the four spot though. Of course take the first pegs offered in either case.