January 20, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
114-116*  ?
39%
27%
17%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 236
cribbagepogo
3251 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:04 AM
In hindsight the 3 might have been better than A, I might get caught.
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:10 AM
Need to cut an Ace, 2, 4, 5 or King.

With Qd cut, I'll shake my opponent's hand and concede.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:54 AM
A-J-K-K has 14 cuts that increase the value of the hand to 8 or 9 points. (444, 555 ,QQQ, K =8 pits.) (4D, 5D, QD, KD = 9 pts.)
Rosemarie44 says: No "pits) replace with "pts" spell check!
Jazzselke says: K cut would be 6 or 7 points
Rosemarie44 says: Yes you are correct. I didn't include that statistic in my comments. Was the 3 chosen over the ace because it one of the key connectors?
Rosemarie44 says: The king was only one cut either a diamond or a club so that didn't weigh in as to my chose of retention or discard.
Jazzselke says: 3 less dangerous
Rosemarie44 says: Thank you. I leaned more towards the number of cuts. I require more experience in the pegging factor or cards.
Rosemarie44 says: "or" should read "of"
Ras2829 says: The trey (or any other small card if available) is much better card to hold with this arrangement as you can lead the trey when holding X-pointers. If dealer responds with a X-pointer on the Ace lead requires n/d to make count 21. If you decide to hold the Ace, lead the King. Too many 31-4, 31-5, and 31-8 pegging scenarios are scored by dealer when leading an Ace with all X-pointers.
Rosemarie44 says: Thank you Ras for adding your comments to my question. This explains pegging scenarios that I don't play enough to know about holding an Ace with all X pointers.
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:21 AM
So does the three plus five more diamonds for one. Lead card considered here? I went with the three , If I kept an ace probably the King. dec
zeke76
1395 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:20 AM
What James said.
mfetchCT425
1398 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:03 AM
Rather have the 3 to lead than the ace if we do get lucky and get a cut.
wasa
3017 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:15 AM
Kept cards which had the most cuts for 6 or more points. If my crystal ball was working, I would have won the lottery by now!
HfxKen
885 votes

Joined: February 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:35 AM
I think you have to look at which cards will give you a " Hail Mary" shot at 7 points.

On this keep there are 4 twos, 4 fives, 4 Queens and a King of diamonds. That means there are 17 cards that can get me out. ( of course, dealer may a few of them).
Now that I got the cut have to keep dealer at bay
RubyTuesday
912 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:44 AM
Don’t ask me for next week’s lottery numbers judging by my inability to spot which card will be cut.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:53 AM
Close on the number of cuts with the top 3 choices. Like Mike's thought on the 3 lead.
glmccuskey
4100 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:03 AM
I like the three lead.
mrob2199
1434 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:56 AM
I think those hold gives us the most chances to win-the 3JKK has the most cards to put us out(4 twos,4 fives,4 queens,and the K of diamonds,plus the other king would give us 6)-so 13 cuts to win and 1 cut to get to 120-the A3KK has 7 cuts that put us out(3 aces and 4 twos-but 10 cuts to put us at 120(4 fours ,4 fives and 2 kings)so you can debate which is better-however if we don’t get a cut the A3 KK at least has a shot at pegging 5-we can lead the K and afford to give up a 15 to get the count up to 25 with our other K-then we force the dealer to make decisions if he has lower cards-he probably wouldn’t play a 3 to make the count 28 and endangering a 31 for 4-so he could play a 2( not really thinking that he’s putting us on an A3KK hand here)-obviously this is a low scenario pegging outcome but it’s still in play-so to sum it up do you prefer 13 guaranteed cuts to put you out-with 1 more to get you to 120 but almost zero chance to peg if you miss the cut-or 7 cuts that put you out with 10 that get you to 120 and a somewhat realistic shot to peg 5? I prefer the latter
Ras2829 says: Hi mrob2199 - well thought choice.
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:53 AM
I wish I kept the Jack ... Drat ...

Lead a King and perhaps trap a 2. Otherwise, smile like a gentleman and accept the loss.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:55 AM
My reasoning is basically what mrob said above. Lots of ways to hit 120 and peg out next hand, with this hold.
Ras2829 says: Hi JCM: If you've got a chance to peg out next hand, better limit dealer to 4 points on this one. What are chances of limiting dealer to four holes (pegs, hand/crib scores)? Odds are 250-1 against doing so.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:56 AM
What has happened to JQT? Anyone know anything about that?
Ras2829 says: Hi JCM: Have expressed concern a week or so ago as to JQT. Nobody seems to know and he's not posted on CHOD since December (around Christmas). Had looked up the date earlier. No comments on his Facebook page since prior to Thanksgiving. JQT does have some debilitating, chronic health conditions. He has been absent in the past over long periods of time and re-emerges. Hope that is the case now.
Ras2829 says: Just learned from Eolus619 that JQT posted on his Facebook page yesterday at 1:07 AM. That could be a very good sign!
HaydenSr
1462 votes

Joined: April 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 10:58 AM
Regarding JQT, I reached out to a relative of his and recently heard back. Sounds like he is fine, just away from internet for whatever reason. Hope to hear from him soon. I have no other information.
superdow
123 votes

Joined: February 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 11:11 AM
Q,5,4 cut will win- slightly better than KK A3 hold
superdow says: Held A for last card chance if necessary.
superdow says: RAS - I notice that Schell says he memorizes the percentages of all 338 discard possibilities (to the tenth percent) when preparing for a serious tournament. OMG!
superdow says: 169 as dealer and 169 as pone
Ras2829 says: Hi superdow: Since there are 91 discard possibilities not considering suit. Might be 338 if considering suits. The average then would vary if considering discarding 10-K or any other choice dependent on suits of the four cards retained. If discarding a heart, when holding two hearts the average would be less than when discarding a spade and holding no spades. Do you think I should teach a class on that? Played Michael Schell few years back at a couple of weekend tournaments. Don't recall winning or losing. Anyway if anybody could memorize 338 discards down to the tenth percent, Mike Schell would be up to that and quickly so. On a difficult day it might take him ten minutes to memorize.
superdow says: RAS: Your too kind, trying to cover up for me. LOL. The each table had 13 rows and columns so I multiplied 13 x 13 without realizing that each table was duplicating the possible throws. LOL I guess 182 could be more manageable to memorize.
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
Wednesday 12:20 PM
Trying for an 8 hand since not much good comes from holding faces to peg out with.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:27 PM
It's a numbers game. This seemed like most possibilities for enough points.
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:09 PM
If choosing an offense or optimal pegging strategy, combined value (pegs/hand score favor this choice. Having said that the hands with the slightly greater potential score are A-J-K-K or 3-J-K-K. For those who held in that manner, they have acquired a win if avoiding pegs. As indicated earlier if wishing to limit dealer pegs, the 3 is much preferable to the ace with those X-pointers. Seeing that lousy starter card, knowing that I have only two points, got to lead a King and hope to pick off a stray deuce at end of pegging sequence. Very grim prospects that can win with a two-point first count. Don't think there need be any serious concern for the discard to dealer as crib is not likely to be scored with dealer needing five points to win.
Coeurdelion
5593 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:19 PM
I think there are probably three choices - A-3-K-K (8-J), A-J-K-K (3-8) and 3-J-K-K (A-8):

A-3-K-K has 4 cuts for 9pts (2222), 3 cuts for 8pts (AAA) and 10 cuts for 6pts (4444, 5555, KK).

A-J-K-K has 12 cuts for 8pts (4444, 5555, QQQQ), one cut for 7pts (KD)and 1 cut for 6pts (K).

3-J-K-K has 12 cuts for 8pts (2222, 5555, QQQQ), one cut for 7pts (KD) and 1 cuts for 6pt(K).

A-3-K-K has fewer cuts for 7pts plus but has 10 cuts for 6pts needing to peg 1pt compared to only 1 cut for 6pts for the other two hands.

So I'll throw 8-J.
HalscribCLX
5316 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:38 PM
At 114-116* playing a Bold strategy for the pegging the most important factors are Win/Loss %s:

Offense__________Peg Out %___Win %
3-J-K-K ____________1.6_______36.1
A-J-K-K_____________0.3_______35.8
A-3-K-K_____________0.3_______35.4

Offense_________Dlr Peg Out %___Loss %
3-J-K-K ____________0.1__________63.9
A-J-K-K_____________0.1__________64.2
A-3-K-K_____________0.3__________64.6

3-J-K-K has the best chance of Pegging Out and the best chanceof winning so I'll select A-8 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead a K and play Defense:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts._____Win %
3_____________________(-2.69)_____________78.6
J_____________________(-2.80)_____________74.4
K_____________________(-2.82)_____________84.8

Although the 3 lead is lowest for Dealer's Pegging Pts. the K lead has the highest Win %.