January 20, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
114-116*  ?
39%
27%
17%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 236
cribbagepogo
3059 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 3:04 AM
In hindsight the 3 might have been better than A, I might get caught.
james500
2777 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 3:10 AM
Need to cut an Ace, 2, 4, 5 or King.

With Qd cut, I'll shake my opponent's hand and concede.
Rosemarie44
1820 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:54 AM
A-J-K-K has 14 cuts that increase the value of the hand to 8 or 9 points. (444, 555 ,QQQ, K =8 pits.) (4D, 5D, QD, KD = 9 pts.)
dec
5171 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 4:21 AM
So does the three plus five more diamonds for one. Lead card considered here? I went with the three , If I kept an ace probably the King. dec
zeke76
862 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Wednesday 5:20 AM
What James said.
mfetchCT425
774 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 6:03 AM
Rather have the 3 to lead than the ace if we do get lucky and get a cut.
wasa
1891 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Wednesday 6:15 AM
Kept cards which had the most cuts for 6 or more points. If my crystal ball was working, I would have won the lottery by now!
HfxKen
291 votes

Joined: February 2020

   
Wednesday 6:35 AM
I think you have to look at which cards will give you a " Hail Mary" shot at 7 points.

On this keep there are 4 twos, 4 fives, 4 Queens and a King of diamonds. That means there are 17 cards that can get me out. ( of course, dealer may a few of them).
Now that I got the cut have to keep dealer at bay
RubyTuesday
670 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Wednesday 6:44 AM
Don’t ask me for next week’s lottery numbers judging by my inability to spot which card will be cut.
Jazzselke
1728 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Wednesday 6:53 AM
Close on the number of cuts with the top 3 choices. Like Mike's thought on the 3 lead.
glmccuskey
3342 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Wednesday 7:03 AM
I like the three lead.
mrob2199
587 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 7:56 AM
I think those hold gives us the most chances to win-the 3JKK has the most cards to put us out(4 twos,4 fives,4 queens,and the K of diamonds,plus the other king would give us 6)-so 13 cuts to win and 1 cut to get to 120-the A3KK has 7 cuts that put us out(3 aces and 4 twos-but 10 cuts to put us at 120(4 fours ,4 fives and 2 kings)so you can debate which is better-however if we don’t get a cut the A3 KK at least has a shot at pegging 5-we can lead the K and afford to give up a 15 to get the count up to 25 with our other K-then we force the dealer to make decisions if he has lower cards-he probably wouldn’t play a 3 to make the count 28 and endangering a 31 for 4-so he could play a 2( not really thinking that he’s putting us on an A3KK hand here)-obviously this is a low scenario pegging outcome but it’s still in play-so to sum it up do you prefer 13 guaranteed cuts to put you out-with 1 more to get you to 120 but almost zero chance to peg if you miss the cut-or 7 cuts that put you out with 10 that get you to 120 and a somewhat realistic shot to peg 5? I prefer the latter
Gougie00
4558 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 9:53 AM
I wish I kept the Jack ... Drat ...

Lead a King and perhaps trap a 2. Otherwise, smile like a gentleman and accept the loss.
JCM
482 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Wednesday 9:55 AM
My reasoning is basically what mrob said above. Lots of ways to hit 120 and peg out next hand, with this hold.
JCM
482 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Wednesday 9:56 AM
What has happened to JQT? Anyone know anything about that?
HaydenSr
315 votes

Joined: April 2020

   
Wednesday 10:58 AM
Regarding JQT, I reached out to a relative of his and recently heard back. Sounds like he is fine, just away from internet for whatever reason. Hope to hear from him soon. I have no other information.
superdow
73 votes

Joined: February 2016

   
Wednesday 11:11 AM
Q,5,4 cut will win- slightly better than KK A3 hold
SallyAnn3
273 votes

Joined: March 2020

Wednesday 12:20 PM
Trying for an 8 hand since not much good comes from holding faces to peg out with.
dgergens
780 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Wednesday 1:27 PM
It's a numbers game. This seemed like most possibilities for enough points.
Ras2829
4020 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 2:09 PM
If choosing an offense or optimal pegging strategy, combined value (pegs/hand score favor this choice. Having said that the hands with the slightly greater potential score are A-J-K-K or 3-J-K-K. For those who held in that manner, they have acquired a win if avoiding pegs. As indicated earlier if wishing to limit dealer pegs, the 3 is much preferable to the ace with those X-pointers. Seeing that lousy starter card, knowing that I have only two points, got to lead a King and hope to pick off a stray deuce at end of pegging sequence. Very grim prospects that can win with a two-point first count. Don't think there need be any serious concern for the discard to dealer as crib is not likely to be scored with dealer needing five points to win.
Coeurdelion
4475 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 3:19 PM
I think there are probably three choices - A-3-K-K (8-J), A-J-K-K (3-8) and 3-J-K-K (A-8):

A-3-K-K has 4 cuts for 9pts (2222), 3 cuts for 8pts (AAA) and 10 cuts for 6pts (4444, 5555, KK).

A-J-K-K has 12 cuts for 8pts (4444, 5555, QQQQ), one cut for 7pts (KD)and 1 cut for 6pts (K).

3-J-K-K has 12 cuts for 8pts (2222, 5555, QQQQ), one cut for 7pts (KD) and 1 cuts for 6pt(K).

A-3-K-K has fewer cuts for 7pts plus but has 10 cuts for 6pts needing to peg 1pt compared to only 1 cut for 6pts for the other two hands.

So I'll throw 8-J.
HalscribCLX
4225 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 3:38 PM
At 114-116* playing a Bold strategy for the pegging the most important factors are Win/Loss %s:

Offense__________Peg Out %___Win %
3-J-K-K ____________1.6_______36.1
A-J-K-K_____________0.3_______35.8
A-3-K-K_____________0.3_______35.4

Offense_________Dlr Peg Out %___Loss %
3-J-K-K ____________0.1__________63.9
A-J-K-K_____________0.1__________64.2
A-3-K-K_____________0.3__________64.6

3-J-K-K has the best chance of Pegging Out and the best chanceof winning so I'll select A-8 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead a K and play Defense:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts._____Win %
3_____________________(-2.69)_____________78.6
J_____________________(-2.80)_____________74.4
K_____________________(-2.82)_____________84.8

Although the 3 lead is lowest for Dealer's Pegging Pts. the K lead has the highest Win %.