January 22, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Brain_ded_Boi
0-0*  ?
50%
16%
10%
6%
5%
3%
3%
3%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 260
Brain_ded_BoiWhat do you think I should do?
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:08 AM
Hold all the sevens for 12 easy points! The crib is killed for a run as we hold all the sevens. Like the starter card!
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 3:10 AM
Cuts of an Ace, 2,5,6,8 or 9 will increase my hand value, and have me dealing from a pretty decent position in the next hand.

Two other 7s and an 8 out of circulation, so 7-7 to my opponent may be less damaging that usual.
Eolus619 says: James..if you please...have a look @ Liam Brown and tell me what you think about the average crib values based on the various discards..especially the 6-8.
james500 says: Hi Edgar, hope you're well. I take your point that 6-8 when all four sevens are out of circulation *should* be pretty safe due to negative delta. I'm in a bold mood today, and looking at the gross value rather than net. 39/46 cuts, (84%), won't help 7777. 6778 is helped by 22/46, (48%). Rather than settle for a probable dozen, I fancy my chances of more.
Eolus619 says: James..to be clear..i was NOT taking issue with your discard...I was wondering about your thoughts as to the accuracy of the Brown table
james500 says: Hi again. I'm quite happy to go along with that site's calculations. As I understand it, rather than quoting figures from a rigid unchanging discard table, they factor in the cards out of circulation each time to produce a bespoke discard value that takes account of the negative/positive delta applicable to the hand in question. That is to say the the figure quoted for 6-8 today from 677778, will not be the same quoted for 6-8 from something different such as 22368T. By the way, feel free to query or challenge any decisions/statements I make on here, I'm not going to be offended or annoyed. Maybe we'll cross paths on Ecribbage tomorrow at the ACC tournament?
bbaer1
3686 votes

Joined: February 2011
 
 
 
Friday 3:54 AM
Happier with this cut since we threw 6-8, although I wouldn’t cry if an Ace was cut.
mrob2199
1429 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 4:12 AM
Keep the 12 with the safe discard of 68-an ace would be a perfect cut for us but we will take the 8 as well
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:35 AM
To keep a chance for twenty four and give up at least six possibly does not seem like a fair trade off. dec
polynumeral
4527 votes

Joined: December 2008
 
 
 
Friday 5:04 AM
The only other card to help would have been the ace so nice cut.
I know my goal was to hold high and attack to reach that first checkpoint.
Considering that I should have held thrown the 6 and a different suited 7.
However since I knew the location of 4 x 7's throwing the 6 8 ( I felt before any through analysis) was the best opportunity to negate their first crib advantage.
Eolus619
1336 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Friday 5:15 AM
playing offense ..toss the 6-8....keeping 12 points which starts me out two points above Pone average. on my way to Par hole 18......holding the sevens drives the expected average dealer crib down from 5.86 ( Schell) to 3.9 if Liam Brown numbers are to be believed. With an 8 cut I will deal first above 18.
Jazzselke says: I believe Brown's raw numbers are fairly accurate. HOWEVER, they do not take position or pegging value into account, which are two main factors in playing serious cribbage.
Eolus619 says: got the point ...loud and clear
SallyAnn3 says: Also, you don't have alllll of those charts and tables handy when you are playing live. Makes a huge difference when you are making most decisions in a matter of seconds.
zeke76
1390 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Friday 5:40 AM
What would we do if it was our crib?
Rosemarie44 says: Hi zeke76: I would hold 6-7-7-8 and toss 7-7 to my crib. Hands starts with a minimum of 12 and has maximum of 24 points. Average expected hand is 14.50 points.
zeke76 says: That makes sense to me.
zeke76
1390 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Friday 5:41 AM
Eolus619
1336 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Friday 5:44 AM
hello...if Liam Brown valuations for total a average points ..hand + crib...are to be believed then throwing a pair of sevens is the answer
Eolus619 says: fat fingers ..this reply for zeke76 should have been in his comment section
zeke76 says: Thanks. I have those same fat digits.
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Friday 6:17 AM
Playing from 0-0 as non dealer I want the added cuts for 16 to 24 points. Can’t believe I’m the Lone Ranger.
scottcrib says: I'm with you! :-)
scottcrib says: I'm with you! :-)
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 6:23 AM
Believe it or not, this is a defensive move. The only cards that will help 6-8 are a 7 and A.

Oh, yeah, Lead a 7 ...
mfetchCT425
1395 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 6:32 AM
Keeping the quads today. 6-8 not nearly as dangerous with us holding all the 7s. We still have a shot for that pretty 24 with the ace cut, but I won’t complain with the a 20 hand, lol.
scottcrib
1630 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Friday 6:36 AM
Wanted more chances for helpful cuts, as referenced by James above.
wasa
3013 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Friday 7:27 AM
Debated keeping all 7s but as James said, keeping 7s means only A or 8 helps (and I have one of the 8s) so 7 cuts. Keeping 6-7-7-8 means AAAA222255556668889999 helps (22 cuts vs 7) and I'm cutting for 24 (yes, ace cut with 7777 is also 24 but the 8 cut with 7777 is "only" 20)
wasa says: Anyone else play in that west coast crib tournament last night? Think it's going on for a few more Thursday nights 7pm EST. Not sure I recognized any user names. I won 2 lost 3 but I think that one of my losses was against the eventual winner so there is that... :-)
JCM says: I was there, wasa. Didn't do so hot myself - won 3, lost 2. To win 5-in-a-row on demand(which is what winning a tournament of 5 individual games requires) also requires you be blessed with better than average cards. Without that kind of luck, you won't win all 5, no matter how skilled you are. Let's see how things pan out next week!
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Friday 7:37 AM
Thought a long time on this hand and still not convinced of a clear-cut answer. This is a good example of choosing either DeLynn's theory (hold 6778), or a moderated approach (hold 7777).
SallyAnn3
904 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Friday 7:51 AM
Already a dozen, with the 6-8 not a danger for a huge crib.
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Friday 8:10 AM
I took keeping the foursome. My algo indicates that it is best to toss a seven with the eight into the crib. Tossing 7-8 gets a 24.28 score whilst 6-8 gets 21.80

Gr8 show card.

BTW tossing 6-7 only gets an average score of 13.83.
Jazzselke says: Were your results throwing discards to the opponent?
Ras2829 says: Hi usacoder: There is either something very wrong with your algorithm or you've keyed something wrong here. Cribbage Prof shows if playing a defense pegging strategy as dealer of hand one the following figures: 6-8 discard 13.57 hand score less pegs of .89 +crib of 3.76 = 10.7; 6-7 discard 14.41 hand score less pegs of 1.17 + crib 4.96 = 10.62; and 7-7 discard 14.52 hand score less pegs of 1.17 + crib of 5.57 = 10.12. If for some reason dealer chose to play offense on hand one The best combined total is discard of 7-7 (14.52 + pegs of 2.17 + crib of 4.96 = 17.31. All other choices are lower than that if playing offense. What more can there be to reach such totals as you show?
Ras2829 says: For those who may not know Cribbage Prof was the creation of Hal Mueller. Cribbage Prof followed Halscrib and REX; thus became Mueller's last hurrah in cribbage tutorials.
Ras2829 says: To arrive at the combined values shown above for defensive strategy, the crib score must be subtracted since it is on the other side of the board.
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Friday 8:56 AM
No. Since we're the dealer - the total score mentioned above includes average pegging moves, average hand score, and average crib scores. All are based on random show-card and random peg play against a random hand for the opponent.
Eolus619 says: hello..we are Pone today
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Friday 9:05 AM
This is the first time, in a long while, that I have been able to discard the 6-8 into the opponents crib, without getting bitten in the backside by the dealer's crib.

I'd toss 6-7 if it was my crib. I'll lead a 7 and push the dealer into a defensive mode with the first play.
wasa says: Are you sure you want to lead a 7? (ha ha ha :-)
jmath714
1297 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Friday 10:29 AM
15% of the time (7/46), I’m going to hit a 6 or 9 cut that is a game breaker on first street.

This hold is about optimizing our cards and position.
jmath714 says: Also I held 7778, not sure why it has me with 6778.
jmath714 says: Also I held 7778, not sure why it has me with 6778.
RubyTuesday
909 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Friday 11:31 AM
RubyTuesday
909 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Friday 11:33 AM
I threw 6 7 which gives me 12 points. 6 7 to dealer seemed better than 6 8 but I’d failed to consider that I had all the 7s.
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 12:05 PM
Gotta go with the majority as 6-8 provides the smaller crib score although discarding 6-7 is very close. Will led the 7D. Don't expect much pegging action with me holding the four key connectors among the middle cards. A 7 lead might draw an Ace in response if dealer playing small cards.
Ras2829 says: Of course we're stuck with dropping a 7 every time dealer plays. If dealer playing four X-pointers, n/d scores 31-4 every time. That's guaranteed!
glmccuskey says: Or if dealer holding 8-8-9-9, though unlikely, pegs 14 holes.
jmudge
701 votes

Joined: July 2020
 
 
 
Friday 12:17 PM
Lucky 7s!
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 4:08 PM
Three possibilities, I think, 7-7-7-7 (8-6), 7-7-7-8 (6-7) and 6-7-7-8 (7-7):

7-7-7-7: 12pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = +6½pts

7-7-7-8: 12pts - 6ts (Schell: 6.42) = +6pts

6-7-7-8: 12pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.14) = +5½pts

Potential:

7-7-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 888 = 7 cuts = 7/46 = 15.2% up to 20/24pts with all cuts.

7-7-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 666, 888, 9999 = 14 cuts = 14/46 = 30.4% up to 18/20/21pts with all cuts.

6-7-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 5555, 666, 888, 9999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 14/16/20/24pts with all cuts.

Position:

As First Pone I'll play Offense and try to exceed or reach 18pts, 1st street positional hole.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 6-7-7-8 will peg best.

Summary:

7-7-7-7 has the best starting value by ½pt. over 7-7-7-8. Holding four 7s also the negative delta for the 6-8 will be considerable, of the order 4x0.1667pt=0.6667pt. So I think 7-7-7-7 will be best and I'll throw the 6-8.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:11 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total____W9 %____W10 %
7-7-7-7____13.57+0.89+(-3.76)=10.70____37.4____36.7
7-7-7-8____14.41+1.17+(-4.96)=10.62____42.0____38.1
6-7-7-8____14.52+1.17+(-5.57)=10.12____42.4____36.6

Offense_______L9 %____L10 %
7-7-7-7________33.9____40.1
7-7-7-8________37.4____39.6
6-7-7-8________40.0____41.3

7-7-7-7 is best for expected averages by 0.08pt. and although it is only third best for Win %s it is appreciably lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 6-8 to
discard.

After the 8 cut I'll, of course, lead a 7 and play Defense:

Lead________________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
7_________________________(-2.16)
fentesk says: I was looking forward to seeing what the pegging strategy definition would be if playing from four-of-a-kind!