January 22, 2021
50% 50% | |||||
16% 16% | |||||
10% 10% | |||||
6% 6% | |||||
5% 5% | |||||
3% 3% | |||||
3% 3% | |||||
3% 3% | |||||
1% 1% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
| Total votes: 260 | |||||
| Brain_ded_Boi | What do you think I should do? |
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Joined: March 2016 (2249 votes) Friday 3:08 AM
Hold all the sevens for 12 easy points! The crib is killed for a run as we hold all the sevens. Like the starter card! |
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Joined: June 2013 (4354 votes) Friday 3:10 AM
Cuts of an Ace, 2,5,6,8 or 9 will increase my hand value, and have me dealing from a pretty decent position in the next hand.
Two other 7s and an 8 out of circulation, so 7-7 to my opponent may be less damaging that usual. Eolus619 says: James..if you please...have a look @ Liam Brown and tell me what you think about the average crib values based on the various discards..especially the 6-8. james500 says: Hi Edgar, hope you're well. I take your point that 6-8 when all four sevens are out of circulation *should* be pretty safe due to negative delta. I'm in a bold mood today, and looking at the gross value rather than net. 39/46 cuts, (84%), won't help 7777. 6778 is helped by 22/46, (48%). Rather than settle for a probable dozen, I fancy my chances of more. Eolus619 says: James..to be clear..i was NOT taking issue with your discard...I was wondering about your thoughts as to the accuracy of the Brown table james500 says: Hi again. I'm quite happy to go along with that site's calculations. As I understand it, rather than quoting figures from a rigid unchanging discard table, they factor in the cards out of circulation each time to produce a bespoke discard value that takes account of the negative/positive delta applicable to the hand in question. That is to say the the figure quoted for 6-8 today from 677778, will not be the same quoted for 6-8 from something different such as 22368T. By the way, feel free to query or challenge any decisions/statements I make on here, I'm not going to be offended or annoyed. Maybe we'll cross paths on Ecribbage tomorrow at the ACC tournament? |
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Joined: February 2011 (3824 votes) Friday 3:54 AM
Happier with this cut since we threw 6-8, although I wouldn’t cry if an Ace was cut. |
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Joined: February 2009 (1705 votes) Friday 4:12 AM
Keep the 12 with the safe discard of 68-an ace would be a perfect cut for us but we will take the 8 as well |
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Joined: April 2008 (6866 votes) Friday 4:35 AM
To keep a chance for twenty four and give up at least six possibly does not seem like a fair trade off. dec |
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Joined: December 2008 (4916 votes) Friday 5:04 AM
The only other card to help would have been the ace so nice cut.
I know my goal was to hold high and attack to reach that first checkpoint. Considering that I should have held thrown the 6 and a different suited 7. However since I knew the location of 4 x 7's throwing the 6 8 ( I felt before any through analysis) was the best opportunity to negate their first crib advantage. |
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Joined: June 2020 (1769 votes) Friday 5:15 AM
playing offense ..toss the 6-8....keeping 12 points which starts me out two points above Pone average. on my way to Par hole 18......holding the sevens drives the expected average dealer crib down from 5.86 ( Schell) to 3.9 if Liam Brown numbers are to be believed. With an 8 cut I will deal first above 18. Jazzselke says: I believe Brown's raw numbers are fairly accurate. HOWEVER, they do not take position or pegging value into account, which are two main factors in playing serious cribbage. Eolus619 says: got the point ...loud and clear SallyAnn3 says: Also, you don't have alllll of those charts and tables handy when you are playing live. Makes a huge difference when you are making most decisions in a matter of seconds. |
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Joined: August 2018 (1531 votes) Friday 5:40 AM
What would we do if it was our crib? Rosemarie44 says: Hi zeke76: I would hold 6-7-7-8 and toss 7-7 to my crib. Hands starts with a minimum of 12 and has maximum of 24 points. Average expected hand is 14.50 points. zeke76 says: That makes sense to me. |
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Joined: August 2018 (1531 votes) Friday 5:41 AM
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Joined: June 2020 (1769 votes) Friday 5:44 AM
hello...if Liam Brown valuations for total a average points ..hand + crib...are to be believed then throwing a pair of sevens is the answer Eolus619 says: fat fingers ..this reply for zeke76 should have been in his comment section zeke76 says: Thanks. I have those same fat digits. |
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Joined: April 2011 (4488 votes) Friday 6:17 AM
Playing from 0-0 as non dealer I want the added cuts for 16 to 24 points. Can’t believe I’m the Lone Ranger. scottcrib says: I'm with you! :-) |
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Joined: March 2008 (6180 votes) Friday 6:23 AM
Believe it or not, this is a defensive move. The only cards that will help 6-8 are a 7 and A.
Oh, yeah, Lead a 7 ... |
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Joined: February 2009 (1638 votes) Friday 6:32 AM
Keeping the quads today. 6-8 not nearly as dangerous with us holding all the 7s. We still have a shot for that pretty 24 with the ace cut, but I won’t complain with the a 20 hand, lol. |
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Joined: August 2019 (2079 votes) Friday 6:36 AM
Wanted more chances for helpful cuts, as referenced by James above. |
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Joined: November 2014 (3397 votes) Friday 7:27 AM
Debated keeping all 7s but as James said, keeping 7s means only A or 8 helps (and I have one of the 8s) so 7 cuts. Keeping 6-7-7-8 means AAAA222255556668889999 helps (22 cuts vs 7) and I'm cutting for 24 (yes, ace cut with 7777 is also 24 but the 8 cut with 7777 is "only" 20) wasa says: Anyone else play in that west coast crib tournament last night? Think it's going on for a few more Thursday nights 7pm EST. Not sure I recognized any user names. I won 2 lost 3 but I think that one of my losses was against the eventual winner so there is that... :-) JCM says: I was there, wasa. Didn't do so hot myself - won 3, lost 2. To win 5-in-a-row on demand(which is what winning a tournament of 5 individual games requires) also requires you be blessed with better than average cards. Without that kind of luck, you won't win all 5, no matter how skilled you are.
Let's see how things pan out next week! |
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Joined: March 2009 (2870 votes) Friday 7:37 AM
Thought a long time on this hand and still not convinced of a clear-cut answer. This is a good example of choosing either DeLynn's theory (hold 6778), or a moderated approach (hold 7777). |
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Joined: March 2020 (1263 votes) Friday 7:51 AM
Already a dozen, with the 6-8 not a danger for a huge crib. |
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Joined: August 2019 (1064 votes) Friday 8:10 AM
I took keeping the foursome. My algo indicates that it is best to toss a seven with the eight into the crib. Tossing 7-8 gets a 24.28 score whilst 6-8 gets 21.80
Gr8 show card. BTW tossing 6-7 only gets an average score of 13.83. Jazzselke says: Were your results throwing discards to the opponent? Ras2829 says: Hi usacoder: There is either something very wrong with your algorithm or you've keyed something wrong here. Cribbage Prof shows if playing a defense pegging strategy as dealer of hand one the following figures: 6-8 discard 13.57 hand score less pegs of .89 +crib of 3.76 = 10.7; 6-7 discard 14.41 hand score less pegs of 1.17 + crib 4.96 = 10.62; and 7-7 discard 14.52 hand score less pegs of 1.17 + crib of 5.57 = 10.12. If for some reason dealer chose to play offense on hand one The best combined total is discard of 7-7 (14.52 + pegs of 2.17 + crib of 4.96 = 17.31. All other choices are lower than that if playing offense. What more can there be to reach such totals as you show? Ras2829 says: For those who may not know Cribbage Prof was the creation of Hal Mueller. Cribbage Prof followed Halscrib and REX; thus became Mueller's last hurrah in cribbage tutorials. Ras2829 says: To arrive at the combined values shown above for defensive strategy, the crib score must be subtracted since it is on the other side of the board. |
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Joined: August 2019 (1064 votes) Friday 8:56 AM
No. Since we're the dealer - the total score mentioned above includes average pegging moves, average hand score, and average crib scores. All are based on random show-card and random peg play against a random hand for the opponent. Eolus619 says: hello..we are Pone today |
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Joined: June 2016 (1054 votes) Friday 9:05 AM
This is the first time, in a long while, that I have been able to discard the 6-8 into the opponents crib, without getting bitten in the backside by the dealer's crib.
I'd toss 6-7 if it was my crib. I'll lead a 7 and push the dealer into a defensive mode with the first play. wasa says: Are you sure you want to lead a 7? (ha ha ha :-) |
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Joined: January 2012 (1318 votes) Friday 10:29 AM
15% of the time (7/46), I’m going to hit a 6 or 9 cut that is a game breaker on first street.
This hold is about optimizing our cards and position. jmath714 says: Also I held 7778, not sure why it has me with 6778. |
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Joined: January 2019 (1196 votes) Friday 11:31 AM
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Joined: January 2019 (1196 votes) Friday 11:33 AM
I threw 6 7 which gives me 12 points. 6 7 to dealer seemed better than 6 8 but I’d failed to consider that I had all the 7s. |
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Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes) Friday 12:05 PM
Gotta go with the majority as 6-8 provides the smaller crib score although discarding 6-7 is very close. Will led the 7D. Don't expect much pegging action with me holding the four key connectors among the middle cards. A 7 lead might draw an Ace in response if dealer playing small cards. Ras2829 says: Of course we're stuck with dropping a 7 every time dealer plays. If dealer playing four X-pointers, n/d scores 31-4 every time. That's guaranteed! glmccuskey says: Or if dealer holding 8-8-9-9, though unlikely, pegs 14 holes. |
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Joined: July 2020 (1036 votes) Friday 12:17 PM
Lucky 7s! |
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Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes) Friday 4:08 PM
Three possibilities, I think, 7-7-7-7 (8-6), 7-7-7-8 (6-7) and 6-7-7-8 (7-7):
7-7-7-7: 12pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = +6½pts 7-7-7-8: 12pts - 6ts (Schell: 6.42) = +6pts 6-7-7-8: 12pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.14) = +5½pts Potential: 7-7-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 888 = 7 cuts = 7/46 = 15.2% up to 20/24pts with all cuts. 7-7-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 666, 888, 9999 = 14 cuts = 14/46 = 30.4% up to 18/20/21pts with all cuts. 6-7-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 5555, 666, 888, 9999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 14/16/20/24pts with all cuts. Position: As First Pone I'll play Offense and try to exceed or reach 18pts, 1st street positional hole. Pegging: Playing Offense I think 6-7-7-8 will peg best. Summary: 7-7-7-7 has the best starting value by ½pt. over 7-7-7-8. Holding four 7s also the negative delta for the 6-8 will be considerable, of the order 4x0.1667pt=0.6667pt. So I think 7-7-7-7 will be best and I'll throw the 6-8. |
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Joined: February 2008 (5711 votes) Friday 4:11 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Our Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total____W9 %____W10 % 7-7-7-7____13.57+0.89+(-3.76)=10.70____37.4____36.7 7-7-7-8____14.41+1.17+(-4.96)=10.62____42.0____38.1 6-7-7-8____14.52+1.17+(-5.57)=10.12____42.4____36.6 Offense_______L9 %____L10 % 7-7-7-7________33.9____40.1 7-7-7-8________37.4____39.6 6-7-7-8________40.0____41.3 7-7-7-7 is best for expected averages by 0.08pt. and although it is only third best for Win %s it is appreciably lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 6-8 to discard. After the 8 cut I'll, of course, lead a 7 and play Defense: Lead________________Dealer's Pegging Pts. 7_________________________(-2.16) fentesk says: I was looking forward to seeing what the pegging strategy definition would be if playing from four-of-a-kind! |
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