Friday 3:08 AM

Hold all the sevens for 12 easy points! The crib is killed for a run as we hold all the sevens. Like the starter card!

   

Friday 3:10 AM

Cuts of an Ace, 2,5,6,8 or 9 will increase my hand value, and have me dealing from a pretty decent position in the next hand.

Two other 7s and an 8 out of circulation, so 7-7 to my opponent may be less damaging that usual.

   

Friday 3:54 AM

Happier with this cut since we threw 6-8, although I wouldn’t cry if an Ace was cut.

   

Friday 4:12 AM

Keep the 12 with the safe discard of 68-an ace would be a perfect cut for us but we will take the 8 as well

   

Friday 4:35 AM

To keep a chance for twenty four and give up at least six possibly does not seem like a fair trade off. dec

   

Friday 5:04 AM

The only other card to help would have been the ace so nice cut.
I know my goal was to hold high and attack to reach that first checkpoint.
Considering that I should have held thrown the 6 and a different suited 7.
However since I knew the location of 4 x 7's throwing the 6 8 ( I felt before any through analysis) was the best opportunity to negate their first crib advantage.

   

Friday 5:15 AM

playing offense ..toss the 6-8....keeping 12 points which starts me out two points above Pone average. on my way to Par hole 18......holding the sevens drives the expected average dealer crib down from 5.86 ( Schell) to 3.9 if Liam Brown numbers are to be believed. With an 8 cut I will deal first above 18.

   

Friday 5:40 AM

What would we do if it was our crib?

   

Friday 5:41 AM

   

Friday 5:44 AM

hello...if Liam Brown valuations for total a average points ..hand + crib...are to be believed then throwing a pair of sevens is the answer

   

Friday 6:17 AM

Playing from 0-0 as non dealer I want the added cuts for 16 to 24 points. Can’t believe I’m the Lone Ranger.

   

Friday 6:23 AM

Believe it or not, this is a defensive move. The only cards that will help 6-8 are a 7 and A.

Oh, yeah, Lead a 7 ...

   

Friday 6:32 AM

Keeping the quads today. 6-8 not nearly as dangerous with us holding all the 7s. We still have a shot for that pretty 24 with the ace cut, but I won’t complain with the a 20 hand, lol.

   

Friday 6:36 AM

Wanted more chances for helpful cuts, as referenced by James above.

   

Friday 7:27 AM

Debated keeping all 7s but as James said, keeping 7s means only A or 8 helps (and I have one of the 8s) so 7 cuts. Keeping 6-7-7-8 means AAAA222255556668889999 helps (22 cuts vs 7) and I'm cutting for 24 (yes, ace cut with 7777 is also 24 but the 8 cut with 7777 is "only" 20)

   

Friday 7:37 AM

Thought a long time on this hand and still not convinced of a clear-cut answer. This is a good example of choosing either DeLynn's theory (hold 6778), or a moderated approach (hold 7777).

   

Friday 7:51 AM

Already a dozen, with the 6-8 not a danger for a huge crib.

   

Friday 8:10 AM

I took keeping the foursome. My algo indicates that it is best to toss a seven with the eight into the crib. Tossing 7-8 gets a 24.28 score whilst 6-8 gets 21.80

Gr8 show card.

BTW tossing 6-7 only gets an average score of 13.83.

   

Friday 8:56 AM

No. Since we're the dealer - the total score mentioned above includes average pegging moves, average hand score, and average crib scores. All are based on random show-card and random peg play against a random hand for the opponent.

   

Friday 9:05 AM

This is the first time, in a long while, that I have been able to discard the 6-8 into the opponents crib, without getting bitten in the backside by the dealer's crib.

I'd toss 6-7 if it was my crib. I'll lead a 7 and push the dealer into a defensive mode with the first play.

   

Friday 10:29 AM

15% of the time (7/46), I’m going to hit a 6 or 9 cut that is a game breaker on first street.

This hold is about optimizing our cards and position.

   

Friday 11:31 AM

   

Friday 11:33 AM

I threw 6 7 which gives me 12 points. 6 7 to dealer seemed better than 6 8 but I’d failed to consider that I had all the 7s.

   

Friday 12:05 PM

Gotta go with the majority as 6-8 provides the smaller crib score although discarding 6-7 is very close. Will led the 7D. Don't expect much pegging action with me holding the four key connectors among the middle cards. A 7 lead might draw an Ace in response if dealer playing small cards.

   

Friday 12:17 PM

Lucky 7s!

   

Friday 4:08 PM

Three possibilities, I think, 7-7-7-7 (8-6), 7-7-7-8 (6-7) and 6-7-7-8 (7-7):

7-7-7-7: 12pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = +6½pts

7-7-7-8: 12pts - 6ts (Schell: 6.42) = +6pts

6-7-7-8: 12pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.14) = +5½pts

Potential:

7-7-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 888 = 7 cuts = 7/46 = 15.2% up to 20/24pts with all cuts.

7-7-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 666, 888, 9999 = 14 cuts = 14/46 = 30.4% up to 18/20/21pts with all cuts.

6-7-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 5555, 666, 888, 9999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 14/16/20/24pts with all cuts.

Position:

As First Pone I'll play Offense and try to exceed or reach 18pts, 1st street positional hole.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 6-7-7-8 will peg best.

Summary:

7-7-7-7 has the best starting value by ½pt. over 7-7-7-8. Holding four 7s also the negative delta for the 6-8 will be considerable, of the order 4x0.1667pt=0.6667pt. So I think 7-7-7-7 will be best and I'll throw the 6-8.

   

Friday 4:11 PM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total____W9 %____W10 %
7-7-7-7____13.57+0.89+(-3.76)=10.70____37.4____36.7
7-7-7-8____14.41+1.17+(-4.96)=10.62____42.0____38.1
6-7-7-8____14.52+1.17+(-5.57)=10.12____42.4____36.6

Offense_______L9 %____L10 %
7-7-7-7________33.9____40.1
7-7-7-8________37.4____39.6
6-7-7-8________40.0____41.3

7-7-7-7 is best for expected averages by 0.08pt. and although it is only third best for Win %s it is appreciably lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 6-8 to
discard.

After the 8 cut I'll, of course, lead a 7 and play Defense:

Lead________________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
7_________________________(-2.16)