Saturday 3:07 AM

We should all be so lucky to have this hand to chose retention and discard cards! First, 5-J has a higher value than 5-Q. I think it's safer to hold a queen in the hand than a lone jack. Maybe another learning experience today?

   

Saturday 3:09 AM

I like your cut better Sally!!!! I like keeping the 223 together with the 5 Q in the crib-as long as we avoid a middle card we should be in good shape-then that doggone 7 cut!!!!!

   

Saturday 3:46 AM

I went for averages also. Just maybe that King cut would perhaps do a flush in the crib? Almost two points average difference in keeping the flush a lil bit too much for me. Defense no pegging by opponent here. dec

   

Saturday 4:21 AM

I'll try the flush.

   

Saturday 5:21 AM

I thought about keeping the flush but the discard tables told me that 5 J would be best in my crib.

   

Saturday 5:48 AM

We’re not in good position here. Gotta go for two decent counts (hand and crib). I like the 5-J to our crib (like the J slightly better over the Q as it’s a key connector card that may garner us a run). Also like keeping the 2-2-3 together.

   

Saturday 5:51 AM

Very interesting challenge today Sally. There is doubt, but do we flush? With Jazz’s comment to me yesterday still in mind… … “HOWEVER, they do not take board position or pegging value into account, which are two main factors in playing serious cribbage” I do want to be a serious cribbage player…So what about board position….I will not be first deal above 70 which is a bad place to be in CPZ #3. Pegs say be careful not to help Pone in his/her pegging.I have decided against sending the 2-J to my crib. I will toss the 5-J, because based on my scant experience,it has a higher crib value than 5-Q in games I have played. This does negate a possible crib flush. My keep only has three cut losers …6-7-9 [ although 7c gets me +1]AND yikes! BTW…..The flush keep only has two losers……… the six and nine.

   

Saturday 6:10 AM

Want to keep 223 together.

   

Saturday 6:25 AM

The 5 is going in the crib. Ordinarily, I would toss J5. Here I toss suited Q5 just in case the pone tosses 2 diamonds.

My target is hole 75 and since the cut doesn't help, I will be offensive.

   

Saturday 6:48 AM

Generally,the advantage of the a Jack in the crib outweighs the slim chance of a flush. (But of course if you don't throw the two you have zero chance!?)

   

Saturday 7:32 AM

Isn't J-5 the number three toss to your own crib?

   

Saturday 8:13 AM

2-2-3-J for me.

   

Saturday 8:35 AM

No brainer?

   

Saturday 9:01 AM

I don't even remember what I did for real. I need to stop writing these on the back of my grocery list lol. At least I remembered to put the real cut to show up in the green box!

   

Saturday 9:40 AM

Put the J in my crib, they may throw me Q-K, prob wont throw me a Jack.

   

Saturday 10:47 AM

If choosing offense pegging strategy and RAS is doing so from the git-go, it's 5-J. It does not pay to flush this day. Dealing form hole 60 is in the middle of nowhere. Ironically the 5-J and the 5-Q in this case are mirror images. For those who held the Jack in the hand, the Jack adds slightly increased offensive pegging potential. The fact that 5-Q are suited only adds .04 (hundredths of a point in value as crib flushes occur about once in each 79-80 games played. That's about once in each 728 deals. How do you know? Tracked crib flushes for 15 years in a GR club that averaged 30-34 players weekly. Paid $5 for a crib flush ; so believe few went unreported. Given the combined values are very close to even, will discard 5-J as opponent will seldom toss a Jack. The Jack is retained by n/d even with hands such as 7-8-9-J. Smart move as it adds to dealer crib when matching suit of starter card. And it subtracts a like amount from n/d hand potential. So the net difference may be more than .5. What? If just considering 5-J/5-Q averages, the 5-J wins hands down. The 5-J 7.088 (1,678) 3/91 scores two points half as often as does the 5-Q 6.593 (1,251) 7/91 and scores more cribs of 8-11 and 12+ (only slightly more admittedly). After seeing the starter card 7 which adds nothing to hand and seems to be of little benefit to discard, will take any pegs offered. If unable to score earlier with a deuce, will hold until end of pegging sequence.

   

Saturday 4:45 PM

I think its between the flush and 2-2-3-J (5-Q) or 2-2-3-Q (5-J):

2D-3-5-Q: 8pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.65) = 11¾pts

2-2-3-J: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 12½pts

2-2-3-Q: 6pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 13pts

Potential:

2D-3-5-Q: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 555, 7777, 8888 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/12/14pts with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 555 + 14xXs = 30 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

2-2-3-J: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 555, 8888 + 14xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 10/12/14pts with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444 + 14xXs = 27 cuts. Plus 12 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

2-2-3-Q: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 555, 8888 + 14xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 10/12/14pts with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444 + 14xXs = 27 cuts.

Position:

Pone only needs 4pts to reach 3rd street positional hole while we need 26pts to reach within 10pts of 4th street positional hole. So I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think the flush will peg best but 2-2-3-J/Q will also.

Summary:

2-2-3-Q has the best starting value by 1¼pts but the other two hands have 0.20/0.26pt for the flush/nobs. The flush also has the most cuts for improvement and 30 cuts for 11-14pts compared to 27 cuts for 10-14pts. So I'll throw the 2S-J.

   

Saturday 4:51 PM

At 60*-66 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense__Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
2-2-3-J____9.78+3.26+6.53=19.57____21.4____24.4
2-2-3-Q____9.52+3.24+6.81=19.57____20.8____23.8
2D-3-5-Q__11.33+3.41+3.28=18.02____16.6____19.9

Offense______L4 %____L5 %
2-2-3-J_______34.5____58.0
2-2-3-Q_______34.5____58.5
2D-3-5-Q______35.6____62.7

2-2-3-J and 2-2-3-Q are equal for expected averages and 1.55pts more than 2D-3-5-Q. However 2-2-3-J is slightly best for Win %s and very slightly lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 5-Q to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.