January 24, 2021
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Total votes: 229 |
dec 6356 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Sunday 3:13 AM
No cuts would put me out so I went with the other balking type discard here. dec |
james500 3921 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Sunday 3:22 AM
Dealer needs 23 against an average of 26. I'll discard and play defensively, to tip the scales in my favour.
K-6 leaves me with a less tightly bunched hand than K-10 would. Ace lead. |
Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Sunday 3:35 AM
I am unable to get close enough to going out with this hand so I have decided to balk the opponent's crib with the T-K..Every cut increases this hand. |
mfetchCT425 1397 votes Joined: February 2009 |
    Sunday 4:38 AM
One of the top, if not thee top defensive discards, and every cut helps this hand. |
mrob2199 1433 votes Joined: February 2009 |
    Sunday 4:58 AM
Mike said it all here-also if we get a nice cut to 7 or 8 we have a very well disguised hand that could peg us close or over the finish line SallyAnn3 says: What's your lead here? |
Andy (muesli64) 2223 votes Joined: August 2009 |
    Sunday 5:06 AM
As above |
Eolus619 1340 votes Joined: June 2020 |
    Sunday 5:40 AM
The hand says I am not getting to 121. Now best to try to make dealer face my board position problem next hand by holding his/her score to 109 or less. Toss the 10-K. |
Gougie00 5728 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Sunday 5:56 AM
I guess I am not unique this morning. It was either AK of 10K getting tossed. Holding the opponents crib to 2 points is my goal. A356 should be a better pegger. Lead the 3? Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: Lead the trey as quite a few payers will play a six on a trey lead figuring since pure mathematical frequency suggests that a six is held less often with a trey than would be a deuce for example.That's a nifty 15-4! |
RubyTuesday 912 votes Joined: January 2019 |
    Sunday 6:26 AM
I’ve chosen the most popular throw at the moment (A 3) which none of the other commenters have chosen. I’m not very good at seeing what’s going to peg well, and how to weigh that up with balking discards. Gougie00 says: You might be right. If the dealer tosses himself 78, then A3 end up being a brick in the crib. Most of us visualize a 2-3 toss and then the A-3 goes *BOOM*. RubyTuesday says: I’m always interested to see what Halscrib and Cœurdelion say, occasionally I’ll think I’ve got it completely wrong and they’ll suggest my throw (we won’t mention that more often they don’t!) |
JCM 910 votes Joined: April 2019 |
    Sunday 7:06 AM
I've decided this hand is not worth sacrificing 2 pts for(to make a discard).
But because we'll need another hand to win, peg defensively. If Opp were closer to the finish line - say at about 104, I'd discard the 10-K, and peg defensively. |
SallyAnn3 908 votes Joined: March 2020 |
Sunday 7:30 AM
Can't get a dozen easily, so going for pegging and balling the opp's crib. A-3 too dangerous to try to go for 8 or 10.
SallyAnn3 says: Hold was A-3-5-6 |
cwed 1355 votes Joined: October 2014 |
    Sunday 7:43 AM
Wanna know how hard it is to keep your head in the game? I've been working with Ras on an article about defensive tosses for the February "Cribbage World." Based on Ras's data, the conclusion is that 10-K is absolutely the best toss to the dealer's crib when you need to slow her down. I literally had just put the finishing touches on this article when I turned to this CHOD puzzle. If anyone should have known the proper toss here, it should've been me. But instead of tossing 10-K, I kept these two cards with my 5 and tossed A-6. To channel Dierks Bentley: "What was I thinking'?" SallyAnn3 says: Some mentor you are! lololol...I, your lowly mentee, got it "right"! cwed says: You will go far, Grasshopper. |
ILostMyJob 3564 votes Joined: September 2013 |
    Sunday 7:45 AM
As next dealer, I'm guaranteed 1 peg. How cool will it be to get a Go for 121? I love K-10ing my opponent, and if I chose defense today, that's what I'd do. But I chose offense (lest I fall short of pegging out to win the next hand, as pone will likely count out) and will press the gas and try to get 11 pegs in this hand, regardless of what pone gets. Eolus619 says: hello...what would you lead? thx ILostMyJob says: Hello! King... I'd pair a 5 and otherwise hope to see the score at 30 for my Ace. ILostMyJob says: In disclosure, I don't know the discard tables etc by heart. I focus on position and the 26 rule, and try to count out some likely scenarios quick, before discarding. I'm probably the "gut" player that DeLynn called a "loser" :) Eolus619 says: and clarification please..when you say pegs....are you saying you are trying to earn 11 "points" total ..hand + pegging...or actually trying to peg for eleven points? ILostMyJob says: Sorry, replied in a new thread below... |
ILostMyJob 3564 votes Joined: September 2013 |
    Sunday 8:07 AM
11 total pegs, which is a bit more than average for non-dealer, so I wanted to peg aggressively (get 4 or more pts?) and also keep the points already in hand when discarding. An X flip card expectation seemed reasonable. Getting to 120 with 11 total pegs is the slam dunk. Even getting to 119 or 118 would feel OK: Another chance to peg aggressively. Ras2829 says: Hi ILostMyJob: Good luck with that. The average non-dealer pegs 1.8. The national champion pegs an average of 2.0 as n/d. |
jmudge 701 votes Joined: July 2020 |
    Sunday 9:09 AM
Tough hand today! |
Cribsurfer 764 votes Joined: September 2016 |
    Sunday 10:54 AM
I dont think I can win on this hand, defensive throw. I though about 10-K but I wanted to keep a X card as a escape card in the pegging. |
wasa 3016 votes Joined: November 2014 |
    Sunday 11:28 AM
Since my opponent needs 23 and is anticipated to get 26 in the next hands decided bold and hoping for a 4 or 5 cut and maybe peg a couple now or next hand. |
Coeurdelion 5593 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Sunday 2:37 PM
I think there are probably three possible keeps - 5-6-10-K (A-3), 3-5-10-K (A-6) and A-3-5-6 (10-K):
5-6-10-K: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = -1pt 3-5-10-K: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.91) = -¾pt A-3-5-6: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = -2pts Potential: 5-6-10-K: Improves with 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/9/10pts with 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 101010, KKK = 20 cuts. 3-5-10-K: Improves with 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 7777 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/10pts with 2222, 4444, 555, 101010, KKK = 17 cuts. A-3-5-6: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 = 28 cuts. Position: We need 12 pts to get out so I'll play Offense. Pegging: I think A-3-5-6 will peg best with three low cards and a mid-card. Summary: 3-5-10-K is best for starting value by ¼pt over 5-6-10-K and 1¼pts over A-3-5-6. However A-3-5-6 has guaranteed improvement and 28 cuts for 5-8pts. Also it should peg best. So I think it will catch up the 1¼pts and even if we don't peg out this deal the Defensive throw will help us to peg out as Dealer on the next hand. |
HalscribCLX 5316 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Sunday 2:43 PM
At 109-98* playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Net Optimal___Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total___W1 %____W2 % A-3-5-6____5.52+(-0.72)+(-3.78)=1.03_____9.9____56.8 5-6-10-K___6.26+(-1.04)+(-4.91)=0.31____14.4____57.2 3-5-10-K___6.17+(-1.33)+(-4.71)=0.14____12.2____58.5 Optimal______L1 %____L2 % A-3-5-6_______6.4_____39.1 5-6-10-K______8.1_____38.2 3-5-10-K______6.4_____37.5 A-3-5-6 is best for expected averages by 0.72pt but 5-6-10-K is best for Win %s and 3-5-10-K is lowest for Loss %s. In this position I think Win/Loss %s are more important and 5-6-10-K has the best chance of Winning on this deal so I'll throw A-3. After the J cut I'll lead the 10 and play Defense: Lead________________Dealer's Pegging Pts. 10________________________(-2.88) K_________________________(-3.00) 6_________________________(-3.39) 5_________________________(-3.49) |
Ras2829 5152 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Sunday 9:15 PM
Will choose optimal peggin' strategy, hold the cards that provide the greatest combined value (pegs, had score, minus crib score), and lead the trey. See my reply to Gougie00 above as to the logic behind that lead. Since dealer picked up two extra pegs for turning the Jack, it might connect with 10-K, especially so if dealer had a five, J-Q, or 10-Q to discard. Conversely could be one of those frequent zero cribs if dealer had no five spot or Queen to dump. So tread carefully on the pegging. |
GNXXXVI 127 votes Joined: August 2020 |
    Sunday 10:18 PM
What Rob said.... |