Friday 3:14 AM

Plenty of X cards and nines available, so AAA4 may well grow significantly after the cut. Is J5 a price worth paying for this gamble though?

AAA5 gets me to at least hole 70, and J4 should be safer than J5. Ace lead.

   

Friday 3:22 AM

IMO this is the best hand to hold. Start with 6 points. Thirty-one cuts increase hand to 8 or 12 points. Cut of a 9 gets me to hole 76.

   

Friday 3:53 AM

Above points echo mine. I believe an Ace lead would be better then a five. dec

   

Friday 3:53 AM

See no reason to go all out offense here so I’ll keep the 6 point hand with many cards to improve and the ultra defensive J-4 toss while holding 3 aces-with an average cut and average pegging we should be able to reach at least 74

   

Friday 4:38 AM

I can get to at least 70 with this holding. And lower risk in crib.

   

Friday 5:21 AM

Lovely cut.

Keeping the 5 does much the same for us offensively as keeping the 4 (15s w Xs), has the 9 extravaganza, and the 4 is a much safer toss especially with three As out of play.

   

Friday 5:41 AM

I was hoping for a 9. Lead an Ace and play off

   

Friday 5:43 AM

Agree with all above. 4-J discard pretty safe with us holding 3 aces. Nice cut. Lead an ace and look to play the 5 next and then look to parlay our two remaining aces for 3 pegs at the end.

   

Friday 6:14 AM

I don’t see how I can disagree with all above me.

   

Friday 7:12 AM

I figured that there were still 15 cuts available with a rank of 9 or above. I assumed the dealer had 2 or 3. I kept A-A-4-5 so I could cover the 3 or 6 starter card as well. The AAA would probably hold the dealer's pegging to a minimum but would not help much for my own pegging.

   

Friday 7:19 AM

Lot of game to go. Can’t see giving up a 5 to pone. AAA5 for me.

Friday 7:49 AM

I always struggle with hands like this. This is proving to me that I need to start holding it this way :)

Friday 7:54 AM

To MA Kelliher--and anyone else who is interested: You inspired me to put step-by-step directions on the ACC website "Play Online" section. There are now 3 links in the left column: "eCribbage Assistance", "How to Play on eCribbage", and "Game Colony Hints". They are very detailed and I pretended I was sitting there with you to walk you through it. I hope it helps!

   

Friday 9:27 AM

We only need 6 pts to reach 70 pts as dealer next hand(a CPZ). With keep AAA5 we already have that 6 pts before the cut, and anything else the cut delivers is gravy.

Safer than discarding J5 to Opp's crib.

Turns out the 9 gives us 6 more pts of gravy. An 8 or the case A would, too. Any other cut would would add some pts, except 2,3,4,6.

   

Friday 10:05 AM

Rolled the dice today.

   

Friday 10:11 AM

Dealer is very short of 4th street CPZ (69-73) and n/d needs five points to reach; so dealer needs something bigger than usual (hand or crib score) somewhere between here and game end. No need to make that happen on this hand with the 5-J discard. In choosing an offense pegging strategy (pegs scored by self, hand score, minus crib score), this choice is the better option. Discarding A-5 is a distant second. Will lead the 9C. Will opponent think am playing a flush since there is a club on the deck? BTW it generally does not work to hold six points and discard a five with anything. The five spot with any other card averages nearly six points. Even with the Ace the average is 5.8ll (264). Any other card with the five spot is worth more than 6 points including 5-9 at 6.065 (170). Like all other discards, these combinations are not worth near as much on your side of the board. Reserve the five discard to opponent crib for hands such as A-2-2-3-5-? and points are needed on your side of the scoring equation. Otherwise you might even retain 2-2-3-5 and discard A-?.Look for ways that you can retain the five if n/d.

   

Friday 11:02 AM

I posted yesterday about the dismal results at the tourney. I said 3 of us were there, But dgergens replied saying he was there, too, so 4 of us were there! (He didn't do so well either, but said it was a lot of fun. All are welcome! There will be one next Thursday - stay tuned.)

I said in my post that after the tourney I went to Cribbage JD and played a bunch of games, winning many. Actually, at the time of posting I was on a win streak of 6 games. That's 1 more game than the 5-in-a-row I need to win the tournament.

If only I could transfer that win streak(actually, just 5 of the games are enough) to the tournament!

   

Friday 4:47 PM

I think I'll choose between A-A-4-J (A-5) and A-A-A-5 (4-J):

A-A-4-J: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.01) = -¼pt

A-A-A-5: 6pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.85) = +1¼pts

Potential:

A-A-4-J: Improves with A, 3333, 444, 555, 9999 + 15xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/12pts with A, 444 + 15xXs = 19 cuts. Plus 11 spade cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-A-A-5: Improves with A, 555, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 12pts with A, 8888, 9999 = 9 cuts.

Position:

We're only 6pts short of 3rd street positional hole and Dealer is 10 pts short so I think we can afford to play Offense.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg well but playing Offense I feel that A-A-4-J will peg better.

Summary:

A-A-A-5 is better for starting value by 1½pts but A-A-4-J has the ¼pt nob potential with a spade cut and it has 19 cuts for 10/12pts compared to 9 cuts for 12pts for A-A-A-5. I think A-A-4-J will peg slightly better as well so I'll throw the lowest scoring x-5 discard with A-5.

   

Friday 4:55 PM

At 64-60* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total___W4 %____W5 %
A-A-A-5____8.13+(-2.54)+(-4.19)=1.40____23.7____56.6
A-A-4-J____8.67+(-2.67)+(-5.93)=0.07____30.1____60.5

Defense______L4 %____L5 %
A-A-A-5_______12.6____22.1
A-A-4-J_______15.9____21.0

A-A-A-5 is better for expected averages by 1.33pts but A-A-4-J is vey much better for Win %s and only slightly worse for Loss %s so I'll select A-5 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead an A and play Defense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
A____________________(-2.04)
4____________________(-2.09)
J____________________(-2.36)