February 20, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
55*-51  ?
47%
31%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
Total votes: 220
mrob2199
1435 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 3:27 AM
Love the pegging value of this hand as dealer -we have the option of taking a 15 right away with a pone picture lead-or play the 8 and hope to get the 31( my preferred way of pegging this particular hand-this hood also gives us a chance at a bingo 4 cut-helping the hand and the crib
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:36 AM
I've more faith in A8 finding a friend in the crib than AT, especially with a 4 and 5 already out of circulation.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:44 AM
Remember this a puzzle submitted by Ras! Here goes: I like this hand that only a cut of a 4 does not increase its value.
Something can be said for holding A-3-4-8 (sweet sixteen) and tossing 5-T to our crib. Which way and why, Ras?
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:28 AM
I nominated the three as possibly being that cut. I like dictating how the pegging would go here. dec
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:34 AM
I'll A8 and hope for a little help in the crib. I am trying to get to 70-75, and the only way that happens is when I play aggressive.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 5:58 AM
Possible 14 hand and good peggers. Only an ace or 9 cut do not improve the hand; the ace helps the crib.
scottcrib
1636 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 6:10 AM
Like James above, I was thinking about those four 6s still out there somewhere.
RubyTuesday
913 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 6:24 AM
I should have thrown A 10 instead of A 8.
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 6:45 AM
I like middle one, little one.
SallyAnn3 says: A lesson I've learned from you....when in doubt :)
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 7:59 AM
I'm a bit of a maverick today, according to the voting. So far only 11% agree with my choice.

You can keep either 5 pts in hand or 4 pts.

If you keep 5 pts you hold 3-4-5-8, discarding 10-A to your crib, OR
You hold 3-4-5-10, discarding 8-A to your crib.

If you keep 4 pts you hold A-3-4-8, discarding 5-10 to your crib.

I think it's worth the 1-pt sacrifice to make the 5-10 discard to your crib. You also have a "sweet 16" with this hold(A-3-4-8), so I'm not sure which of these holds will peg better. I'll have to defer to others here and Halscrib and Coeurdelion for that.
JCM says: I need coffee before posting. Just now realized A-3-4-8 is only worth 2 pts before the cut, not 4 pts. Sacrificing 3 pts to discard 5-10 to your crib is too much, I think.__ So I guess now I go with discarding A-8, keeping 3-4-5-10.
JCM says: I need coffee before posting. Just now realized A-3-4-8 is only worth 2 pts before the cut, not 4 pts. Sacrificing 3 pts to discard 5-10 to your crib is too much, I think.__ So I guess now I go with discarding A-8, keeping 3-4-5-10.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 8:18 AM
Another pegging question. It's to do with the play of the final 2 cards.

When Opp has been playing, in his first 3 cards, connected or nearby cards (like 6-7-9) or pairs/connected(like 10-10-J), and you hold 2 cards, one of which "fits" with his 3 cards and the other doesn't, and you must lead one of your 2 cards, you must decide which of your 2 cards to lead.

Do you lead the card that "fits", hoping Opp has exhausted his connected/paired cards? Or do you lead the card that doesn't fit, figuring his last card will be one that does fit?

Practical example: Opp has played 6-7-9(any order) in his first 3 cards and you hold an 8(fits) and Q(doesn't fit) and must lead one of them. Which do you lead?

The other example is similar. Opp's first 3 cards were 10-10-J(any order) and you hold Q(fits) and 6(doesn't fit) and must lead one of them. Which do you lead?

I've tried it both ways and seem to get stung so often with opp scoring a 15 or with a pair no matter which way I go.

Any advice from you pegging experts?
JCM says: Also, if I may, suppose you held a 5 as one of your 2 final cards in both these examples. Should you lead it? First example: Opp played 6-7-9 and you hold 5,Q. Lead the Q or 5? 2nd example: Opp played 10-10-J and you hold 5,6 Lead the 5 or 6?
JCM says: Also, if I may, suppose you held a 5 as one of your 2 final cards in both these examples. Should you lead it? First example: Opp played 6-7-9 and you hold 5,Q. Lead the Q or 5? 2nd example: Opp played 10-10-J and you hold 5,6 Lead the 5 or 6?
james500 says: Hi. Definitely people on here who can answer better than me, but for what it's worth, in your example where your opponent has 679? and you need to choose whether to lead an 8/Q, you would need to try to predict what sort of hand they might reasonably have kept, and whether they might peg. With 679?, the sort of card that makes sense as the 4th is either a 2,5,6,8 or 9. Of those, only the 8 and 5 are relevant to your 8/Q lead conundrum. If you lead your 8 and they pair it, they have 6789 for 8, plus the 2 pegs makes 10. If they have 5679, your 8 is safe and they only score 5. If you lead the Q and they "15" it, they have 5679 for 5 plus the two pegs, 7. If they have 6789, your Q is safe and they move 8 holes.
james500 says: Hi. Definitely people on here who can answer better than me, but for what it's worth, in your example where your opponent has 679? and you need to choose whether to lead an 8/Q, you would need to try to predict what sort of hand they might reasonably have kept, and whether they might peg. With 679?, the sort of card that makes sense as the 4th is either a 2,5,6,8 or 9. Of those, only the 8 and 5 are relevant to your 8/Q lead conundrum. If you lead your 8 and they pair it, they have 6789 for 8, plus the 2 pegs makes 10. If they have 5679, your 8 is safe and they only score 5. If you lead the Q and they "15" it, they have 5679 for 5 plus the two pegs, 7. If they have 6789, your Q is safe and they move 8 holes.
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 8:42 AM
RAS hand, so I overthought this one lol. Usually, I'd toss the A and 10 here. I like 3-4-5-8, but not with a 4 in my hand if I tossed A/10. Everything but a 9 gives me a minimum of 6 in hand and crib, and hoping to at least catch a face in the crib.
dgergens says: Looks like you overthought it correctly and channeled RAS perfectly.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 10:31 AM
I think the three main choices are going to be close in statistical average. Curious to see what the preferred choice will be. No regrets.
dgergens says: I was correct, small spread between options and though I didn't come up with Ras' logic, I agreed with Hal. Like I said, no regrets choosing this hand.
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Saturday 10:57 AM
Prefer the A-8 to my crib instead of the A-T. Considered the 5-T to my crib but not worth the sacrifice of points (I am not a good enough player to make up the difference pegging).

As an aside, other than this site, are there others that can help me with my pegging? I have read DeLynn's and Barlow's crib books but still I feel my pegging needs work.
HfxKen says: I'd like to brush up On my endgame pegging as well. Hope someone chimes in
SallyAnn3 says: Rob is the master of pegging. I tell him it's more like he is playing chess because he can see 4 moves ahead. I am lucky to see two! :) Pay attention to his posts for pegging possibilities.
dec says: Yes Rob is very good Sally.. by the way the last hand we played today would have been a good one to post. dec
SallyAnn3 says: I was concentrating too much to write it down lol. I did one from our match, though :)
fentesk says: I've also been looking for a well-designed program that just focuses on pegging over and over. I keep hoping one of the cribbage bite will have a pegging mode where you can play various hands at various scores, but have yet to find it. Playing games and reading analysis is great, but somewhere with dedicated practice would be a fantastic addition.
fentesk says: *bite = bots
jmath714
1299 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Saturday 11:20 AM
In this spot, I want the magic 11 along with a healthy number of pulls at 10+; curious if there a Ras surprise recommendation of 10-5 to the crib coming.
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 3:47 PM
I think it's between 3-4-5-8 (A-10), 3-4-5-10 (A-8) and and A-3-4-8 (5-10):

3-4-5-8: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.42) = 8½pts

3-4-5-10: 5pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = 8¾pts

A-3-4-8: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 8½pts

Potential:

3-4-5-8: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/9/10/12/14pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 888 = 20 cuts.

3-4-5-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 101010 = 20 cuts.

A-3-4-8: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 5/6/8pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 7777, 888 = 20 cuts.

Position:
We should reach 3rd street positional hole first and even as non-dealer we'll have positional advantage so I'll play a Defense strategy.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think A-3-4-8 will peg best.

Summary:

3-4-5-10 is best for starting value by only ¼pt but 3-4-5-8 has nearly as many cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 8-14pts which is the best maximum. So I'll throw the A-10.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:49 PM
At 55*-51 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W5 %____W6 %
A-3-4-8____4.93+(-1.89)+6.62=9.66____45.6____65.5
3-4-5-10___7.98+(-2.20)+3.69=9.47____46.2____67.0
3-4-5-8____8.15+(-2.20)+3.07=9.02____46.0____65.9
A-4-5-10___7.15+(-1.96)+3.80=8.99____44.6____65.6
A-3-4-5____7.11+(-2.13)+3.76=8.74____43.9____63.5

Defense______L5 %____L6 %
A-3-4-8_______22.2____16.4
3-4-5-10______20.7____15.1
3-4-5-8_______21.6____15.9
A-4-5-10______20.8____16.1
A-3-4-5_______23.2____18.0

A-3-4-8 is best for expected averages by 0.19pt over 3-4-5-10 but 3-4-5-10 is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select A-8 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 8:42 PM
What's not to like about holding such a fine pegging arrangement, discarding the high-scoring 5-10 to own crib. Retain a "sweet 16", two-card magic 11. Have chosen an optimal strategy from the outset. Opponent at hole 51 needs 18 points to reach 3rd street CPZ (69-73). Will take pegs that seem reasonably safe though will try to avoid giving up a triple for six pegs. Will play the 8 on J-Q-K lead, would play the trey on a 10 spot. If the cards are agreeable, will hold A-3-4 for the end of the pegging sequence. Can often work some magic with three cards ranking under five. Note that combined value (pegs, hand and crib scores) is best for A-3-4-8. See HalscribCLX above for those figures.That's good enough for me.