Sunday 3:23 AM

2-4 isn't too bad at all, and viewed in isolation might be my preferred discard from these. 7-7 has no synergy with T-J however, so I won't choose it today.

7-7 is a pretty good discard, but I'm not sure it's worth reducing my hand value by two points for. Whether it's an exception to either Ras' sacrifice limits or Aaron Harsh's "instrinsic value" guidelines, we shall see when Hal speaks.

2-4-7-7 improves on most cuts and includes both a 7-4 eleven and 7-7-2 sixteen, so may peg well. Not overly keen on T-J, since of the cards immediately helpful to it, (5,9,T,J and Q), Pone is biased against discarding fives and Jacks minimising the liklihood of my discard finding a friend.

A toss up between 7-7 and T-J. I'll try T-J.

   

Sunday 4:25 AM

This hold gives us the best option to peg aggressively to get as close to 4th street as possible.it also provides crib potential with 2 touching picture cards

   

Sunday 4:41 AM

I might learn something today. I've been throwing middle cards in the crib for years. Every once in while the pone tosses something like 6-8. The best we can hope for with 2477 is a 2 or 4 cut for 8.

   

Sunday 4:48 AM

I would expect opponent to go with a low risk discard unless they hold a double digit hold here.
I will play this hand as defensive and a few cuts will add to this hand and a loose 10-J-Q along with a cut could get a crib that way. Unless huge hand by opponent we still got a decent chance here. dec

   

Sunday 4:52 AM

Keep the peggers today. Start with 2 points with a possible of a maximum of 8 points. Prefer not to toss Pairs in my crib.

   

Sunday 5:00 AM

I liked the 7s in the crib today - even though the 10-J leaves us with better peggers, I don’t like the 10-J toss for as much for some of the good reasons James mentions above. With wide variety of cards here, we should be able to limit pone’s pegging.

   

Sunday 5:05 AM

What mfetch said.

   

Sunday 5:16 AM

What mfetch and dgergens said

   

Sunday 5:19 AM

I'd rather toss connectors than 7-7 to my crib.

   

Sunday 6:56 AM

I like the pegging potential of these cards.

   

Sunday 7:13 AM

Would normally throw the sevens, but like the Magic 11 in this particular position.

   

Sunday 7:34 AM

Good morning all. First congrats to Jazz/Dan on his Bronze finish yesterday in ACC 2/3. Then it is a bit stressful to wakeup on a cold winter morning and find some very good players disagreeing on what to do with the 7-7. Then I am reminded of what Gougie00 once told me that very good players can make something happen out of a hand like this. What a standard to face as I decide. Then we have Jazz’s well known theorem that this keep/discard is the best answer until it isn’t. hmmmm
My contribution this morning is from Ras’s Tips #6 on the ACC site. He ranks 7-7 discard own crib as one star…and comments.. "It is wise to sacrifice up to two points in the hand to discard any of those choices with**. A sacrifice of one point in the hand may be made with good effect to discard those choices with a single*" If my understanding is correct, we will see later,Ras says to keep the 7-7 in my hand today since I would be sacrificing two points in my hand.I toss the 10-J [ like the touches] and can then can get help in my crib from all the “ten card” cuts except the Ks. 2-2-7-7 seems best for pegging too.
http://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen6.asp

   

Sunday 9:18 AM

From this position, I just can’t deal with the limited potential of 2-4-7-7. 3 outs for 8 points? Bleh.

Instead, I’ll take my chances with the 7-7 in the crib. All out offense here, regardless of the toss, I think we can all agree on.

Sunday 11:11 AM

10-J might catch some action in the crib. Would rather hold low peggers than faces.

   

Sunday 11:17 AM

The 2-4-7-7 features the Magic 11 and the four lower value cards should peg well. Opponent unlikey to give me a J so T-J connectors are nice. Could this be another lesson on intrinsic value, as according to Schell 7-7 expects 5.92 but only 3.92 removing the intrinsic value. T-J expects 4.61 (but nobs in either my hand or crib so really 4.61-0.25= 4.36). To me, this helps justify the T-J toss to my crib. Opponent likes tossing 9-K or 9-Q or even Q-K, all which generally contribute to lower scoring cribs.

   

Sunday 1:47 PM

I had a clear vision of cutting a 4. This is why I don't play the lotto. My visions lose me money.

   

Sunday 1:57 PM

A cautionary lesson and another pegging question.

Lesson: I was just in a game where in the middle of it, and playing too quickly, I took a pair instead of a 3-card run. Sequence was Q-J and I had to play. I quickly paired the J, and the moment I did it I saw that I could have played my 10 for a 3-card run. Gained 2 pts when I could have had 3 pts. Lost that game sitting in hole 120 while Opp counted out! Moral: Take every pt you can. Maybe sit on your hands before playing :-)

Question: You're holding X-values and an A. Say, JQKA. Opp leads a J. Apart from end game situations, when is it a good idea to pair the J, knowing that should Opp triple, you can play your A for 31-2? You're risking a net loss of 2 pts when you might make 2 or 4 pts unanswered.

   

Sunday 2:33 PM

Better peggers. Every cut except an X helps this keep. And only the K does not help the J-10 in the crib.

   

Sunday 3:18 PM

I think the discard has to be either 2-4, 7-7 or 10-J:

7-7-10-J: 2pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.52) = 6½pts

2-4-10-J: 0pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 5¾pts

2-4-7-7: 2pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.61) = 6¾pts

Potential:

7-7-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 5555, 77, 8888, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 5/6pts with 5555, 77, 8888, 9999, QQQQ = 18 cuts. Plus 12 spade cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.


2-4-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 5555, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 3/4/5/7pts with AAAA, 3333, 5555, 9999, QQQQ = 20 cuts. Plus 12 spade cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

2-4-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 = 29 cuts = 29/46 = 63.0% up to 5/6/8pts with 222, 3333, 444, 6666, 77, 8888 = 20 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt short of 3rd street positional hole and Pone is 10pts short of where they would like to be so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think, of the three hands, 2-4-10-J will peg best playing Offense.

Summary:

2-4-7-7 is best for starting value by ¼pt over 7-7-10-J and 1pt over 2-4-10-J. However 2-4-10-J has the most cuts for improvement and also has, like 7-7-10-J the approximately ¼pt for the nob potential. Also it has 20 cuts for 3-7pts and should peg best as well. So I'll throw 7-7.

   

Sunday 3:32 PM

At 69*-76 playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %___W5 %
2-4-7-7____4.26+3.00+4.50=11.76____2.9____21.0
2-4-10-J___2.78+2.52+5.98=11.28____3.5____21.6
7-7-10-J___4.09+2.48+4.51=11.08____2.5____20.4

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
2-4-7-7________12.5___57.6
2-4-10-J_______12.0___56.3
7-7-10-J_______11.8___57.2

2-4-7-7 is best for expected averages by 0.48pt but 2-4-10-J is very slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So, as we're nearly at 3rd street positional hole, I'll decide based on the Win/Loss %s and select 7-7 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

   

Sunday 6:46 PM

As in yesterday's puzzles, combined values are good enough for me. With opponent already at hole 76, am choosing offense from the outset and will play on the lead. That means would pair 2-4-7 and take 15-2 if an 8 is led. Will play 7C on any X-pint lead, and play the 2 on an Ace lead.