Daily Cribbage Hand

*** This hand was suggested by smokeytroll42

			47%
			19%
			11%
			9%
			5%
			2%
			2%
			0%
			0%
			0%
Total votes: 241

2223-Q5 is too risky here.
2235-Q2 "triple nickel" is interesting.
I'll play it safe and lead the 2 of diamonds.

Can’t afford to give dealer anything good when he is 25 out-the Q-3 discard while holding 3 of the deuces is as safe a discard as we can have

Better for me to go for 100 .To go for 110 for me and for them to possibly be 110 or better those odds do not appeal to me. dec

Best hold and toss IMO with today's hand. Looks like I'm with the majority here. Starts with 6 points and has lots of cuts for 8 or 12 points.(35).Safe toss to opponent.

Had the dealer been at 86, I'd toss Q5. Here, 3Q. I will attempt to kill the crib. Lead a 2, and ditch the 5.

On the same page with those above. Good defensive discard. 2,4,5,6,8,9, and any face all improve this hand.

Have to try to cause the current dealer to count 2nd one more time ..

Defense, defense, defense as RAS would say.

3 Q to dealer for all the reasons above.

I think the 2235 keep should be thought about too, has more cuts to help. But today Im keeping the 2's together to hopefully score a 31-4.

Holding three 2s not to worried about helping dealer with the 3 Q toss so to the crib they go.

Aren't you glad that you did not discard the 5-Q? Given up two points on dealer turning that Jack is enough. With dealer at 96 can't chance the 5-Q. Might have done so if dealer were at hole 86.
The 5-Q based on my empirical data averages 7.102.The Cribbage Prof gives the 5-Q a 7.65 average. Got to watch those 5 discards to opponent. In any case 5-Q scores 8 or more points 50.383% of the time. Of course 5-Q (like all discards) does not do near as well on your side of the board. Am choosing def. def., def. lead the 2D, fake the flush by getting rid of that lone 5D next play if that looks reasonably safe. A distant second choice would be discarding unsuited 2-5. As the Goatman points out above, 3-Q discard in this case is very low as n/d is holding four cards that score with the 3-Q.The presence of the 2-2-2-5 in n/d hand makes the 3-Q average about 3.97. N/d only needs three points to reach 4th street CPZ 95-99) for upcoming deal. So after the starter card, n/d has 8 points. Play it SAFE! Best thing n/d can do on this hand is to limit dealer movement down the board. If you would like to know more about CPZ and how to apply, e-mail raswino29@outlook.com.

I think it is between 2-2D-3-Q (2-5) and 2-2-2-5 (3-Q):

2-2D-3-Q: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.11) = -¼pt

2-2-2-5: 6pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = +1½pts

Potential:

2-2D-3-Q: Improves with AAAA, 2, 333, 4444, 555, 8888 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/12/14pts with AAAA, 2, 333, 4444 + 15xXs = 27 cuts.

2-2-2-5: Improves with 2, 4444, 555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 12pts with 2, 6666, 8888 = 9 cuts.

Position:

We'll be well past 4th street positional hole for our deal next so I think we must kepp opponent as short of 111pts as possible and therefore I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

2-2D-3-Q should peg well but playing Defense 2-2-2-5 will also peg well.

Summary:

2-2-2-5 is better for starting value by 1¾pts and although 2-2D-3-Q has slightly fewer cuts for improvement it has 27 cuts for 10-14pts compared to 9 for 12pts with 2-2-2-5. So I think 2-2D-3-Q will catch up the difference and more thus I will throw an unsuited 2-5.

At 92-96* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
2-2-2-5____8.30+(-2.74)+(-3.75)=1.81____0.0____15.1
2-2D-3-Q___9.48+(-2.39)+(-5.98)=1.06____0.0____16.7

Defense______L1 %___L2 %
2-2-2-5_______4.4____45.2
2-2D-3-Q______0.0____55.5

2-2-2-5 is better for expected averages by 0.75pt and although 2-2-D-3-Q is slightly better for Win %s 2-2-2-5 is very much lower for Loss %s. So I'll throw the safer 3-Q to the opponent's crib.

After the J cut I'll the 2D and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
2____________________(-2.29)
5____________________(-3.53)

This is do or die. If your going get lucky enough to win by keeping 2225, you can get lucky enough even with giving away Q5. Notice the W1 percentages are all zero. Now I'm curious what the numbers are for 2-2-2-3.

Lesson learned--again! I held 235Q. Figured it had more hits, and the 2's were a bit safer since I had a 2 and a 3.

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