February 22, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by smokeytroll42
92-96*  ?
47%
47%
19%
19%
11%
11%
9%
9%
5%
5%
2%
2%
2%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 241
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4354 votes)

Monday 3:12 AM
2223-Q5 is too risky here.
2235-Q2 "triple nickel" is interesting.
I'll play it safe and lead the 2 of diamonds.
mrob2199

Joined: February 2009 (1705 votes)

Monday 3:14 AM
Can’t afford to give dealer anything good when he is 25 out-the Q-3 discard while holding 3 of the deuces is as safe a discard as we can have
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6866 votes)

Monday 3:58 AM
Better for me to go for 100 .To go for 110 for me and for them to possibly be 110 or better those odds do not appeal to me. dec
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2249 votes)

Monday 5:24 AM
Best hold and toss IMO with today's hand. Looks like I'm with the majority here. Starts with 6 points and has lots of cuts for 8 or 12 points.(35).Safe toss to opponent.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6180 votes)

Monday 5:27 AM
Had the dealer been at 86, I'd toss Q5. Here, 3Q. I will attempt to kill the crib. Lead a 2, and ditch the 5.
mfetchCT425

Joined: February 2009 (1638 votes)

Monday 5:43 AM
On the same page with those above. Good defensive discard. 2,4,5,6,8,9, and any face all improve this hand.
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1769 votes)

Monday 5:58 AM
Have to try to cause the current dealer to count 2nd one more time ..
Eolus619 says: a friendly by the way ...Pone discards Q-3 to dealer averages 4.6 & Q-5 averages 7.1...per Ras empirical evidence
Eolus619 says: I am looking @ the voting and I think a friendly by the way part 2 might be useful. Ras counsels there are three decision points for EVERY hand. 1] Look @ the peg positions. Based on where both players are in the CPZs,tells you if Offense or Defense is needed. 2] #1,as well as your six dealt cards,influences what you keep and discard 3] Look @ the starter and decide if your strategy needs to be adjusted as you peg.
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4488 votes)

Monday 6:00 AM
Defense, defense, defense as RAS would say.
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1196 votes)

Monday 6:51 AM
3 Q to dealer for all the reasons above.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2870 votes)

Monday 7:26 AM
Commenters 100%
HaydenSr

Joined: April 2020 (1878 votes)

Monday 8:23 AM
I think the 2235 keep should be thought about too, has more cuts to help. But today Im keeping the 2's together to hopefully score a 31-4.
Goatman

Joined: March 2017 (2556 votes)

Monday 9:03 AM
Holding three 2s not to worried about helping dealer with the 3 Q toss so to the crib they go.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Monday 11:21 AM
Aren't you glad that you did not discard the 5-Q? Given up two points on dealer turning that Jack is enough. With dealer at 96 can't chance the 5-Q. Might have done so if dealer were at hole 86.
The 5-Q based on my empirical data averages 7.102.The Cribbage Prof gives the 5-Q a 7.65 average. Got to watch those 5 discards to opponent. In any case 5-Q scores 8 or more points 50.383% of the time. Of course 5-Q (like all discards) does not do near as well on your side of the board. Am choosing def. def., def. lead the 2D, fake the flush by getting rid of that lone 5D next play if that looks reasonably safe. A distant second choice would be discarding unsuited 2-5. As the Goatman points out above, 3-Q discard in this case is very low as n/d is holding four cards that score with the 3-Q.The presence of the 2-2-2-5 in n/d hand makes the 3-Q average about 3.97. N/d only needs three points to reach 4th street CPZ 95-99) for upcoming deal. So after the starter card, n/d has 8 points. Play it SAFE! Best thing n/d can do on this hand is to limit dealer movement down the board. If you would like to know more about CPZ and how to apply, e-mail raswino29@outlook.com.
Ras2829 says: The challenge as non-dealer is that winning percentage is less than 20% even if doing everything right.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Monday 1:20 PM
I think it is between 2-2D-3-Q (2-5) and 2-2-2-5 (3-Q):

2-2D-3-Q: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.11) = -¼pt

2-2-2-5: 6pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = +1½pts

Potential:

2-2D-3-Q: Improves with AAAA, 2, 333, 4444, 555, 8888 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/12/14pts with AAAA, 2, 333, 4444 + 15xXs = 27 cuts.

2-2-2-5: Improves with 2, 4444, 555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 12pts with 2, 6666, 8888 = 9 cuts.

Position:

We'll be well past 4th street positional hole for our deal next so I think we must kepp opponent as short of 111pts as possible and therefore I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

2-2D-3-Q should peg well but playing Defense 2-2-2-5 will also peg well.

Summary:

2-2-2-5 is better for starting value by 1¾pts and although 2-2D-3-Q has slightly fewer cuts for improvement it has 27 cuts for 10-14pts compared to 9 for 12pts with 2-2-2-5. So I think 2-2D-3-Q will catch up the difference and more thus I will throw an unsuited 2-5.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5711 votes)

Monday 1:22 PM
At 92-96* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
2-2-2-5____8.30+(-2.74)+(-3.75)=1.81____0.0____15.1
2-2D-3-Q___9.48+(-2.39)+(-5.98)=1.06____0.0____16.7

Defense______L1 %___L2 %
2-2-2-5_______4.4____45.2
2-2D-3-Q______0.0____55.5

2-2-2-5 is better for expected averages by 0.75pt and although 2-2-D-3-Q is slightly better for Win %s 2-2-2-5 is very much lower for Loss %s. So I'll throw the safer 3-Q to the opponent's crib.

After the J cut I'll the 2D and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
2____________________(-2.29)
5____________________(-3.53)
wasa says: I don't understand how HAL can claim L1 of 0%. Dealer at 96 needs 25 points to win. Many hands plus crib will give 25.
Ras2829 says: Hi wasa: Dealer has a 1 in 14 chance to score 25. So it would seem that winning percentage (W1%) if applied to dealer ought to be around 7%. Think the win/loss % applies to the non-dealer at hole 92 in this case. If so, L1 % would be very near zero (about 1 in 334 chances).
dgergens

Joined: January 2018 (940 votes)

Monday 2:59 PM
This is do or die. If your going get lucky enough to win by keeping 2225, you can get lucky enough even with giving away Q5. Notice the W1 percentages are all zero. Now I'm curious what the numbers are for 2-2-2-3.
SallyAnn3

Joined: March 2020 (1263 votes)

Monday 5:18 PM
Lesson learned--again! I held 235Q. Figured it had more hits, and the 2's were a bit safer since I had a 2 and a 3.
dgergens says: Sorry your hand never shows, you must sit an read a lot before posting. Try refreshing your screen before posting (make sure you copy what you wrote so you can paste it back before posting).
GNXXXVI

Joined: August 2020 (127 votes)

Monday 10:37 PM
Yup