February 23, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by James500
97*-105  ?
30%
24%
19%
8%
8%
8%
0%
Total votes: 250
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:16 AM
I've chosen to start with a guarantee of seven points, but some of the other options are quite tempting.
Eolus619 says: good thought provoking puzzle..thx
james500 says: Hi. Thanks for the kind words. I've certainly enjoyed reading the comments of all those who have voiced an opinion. They too have been thought provoking.
Ras2829 says: Hi james500: Very good puzzle. Over time, have come to expect such from you.
mrob2199
1407 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:34 AM
I like the pegging power and flexibility of the 4567 as dealer-we have 3 counts to get 24 so we might have to be aggressive in our pegging if we get a bad cut such as an ace-the advantage of throwing K3 in the crib is the 2 cut gives us 2 more in our hand and a decent shot of 6 or 7 in the crib
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:48 AM
Pegging and crib potential for me. I might just play off here on an eight or seven lead. Six lead I just might have to do a four response. dec
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:22 AM
I don't like the configuration of the flush in this hand that only starts with 4 points. Holding 4-5-6-K starts with 7 points and has many cuts that increase the hand to a maximum of 16 points.
fentesk says: I found it interesting when writing out the value tables that this hand is guaranteed at least 9 points when including the crib since the options that keep the hand under 9 (2/3/7/8) all give at least 2 points in the crib (though the crib can score zero for starters that increase the base hand). I wouldn't have noticed that during a game.
BarryB
500 votes

Joined: December 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:42 AM
BarryB
500 votes

Joined: December 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:46 AM
3,4 in the crib seemed right with not a big sacrifice to my hand. I do see y'alls strategy. Rethinking mine.
BarryB says: The 2 cut was nice!
Eolus619 says: Barry...hard to argue with a keep that gets help from 12/13 ranks. Think about this as you make future discard decisions. 4-5-6 helps itself twice ..three card run & 15-2. 5-6-7 helps itself once. And consider the pegging potential of the cards you hold. all the best.
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:58 AM
Need to move along the board as much as possible. This is best way.
Andy (muesli64) says: Actually throwing 3-7 is even better!!
Andy (muesli64) says: Actually throwing 3-7 is even better!!
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:19 AM
My algorithm says on average this scores 21.0 points, I don't see it. Coming in 2nd are the 3-7 and 3-K tosses both averaging 16.5.

Personally, I hate breaking up any run, especially one with a 15 count in it.

The turn card helps a lot, with the flush and adding another 2 points with a 15 count.
Jazzselke says: The deuce adds 2 fifteens.
fentesk says: Does your code include points for pegging? Writing out the value table gives me 13.79 points for this hand (7.13 + 6.66 crib). I got 13.34 (9.76 + 3.58) for (7-3) and 13.21 (9.54 + 3.67) for (K-3) - using the Schell tables for the cribs.
Ras2829 says: Hi usacoder: Don't like to be overly critical of your algorithms as appreciate those who take the time to more fully understand this game. My scant empirical data on these choices to include the pegging don't reach 17 points if choosing offense. If choosing optimal which would be my choice, the max for the flush is right at 15. Of course a defense strategy would put them at an even lower figure. Halscrib and the Cribbage Prof show the flush if choosing an optimal pegging strategy as: 1.57 pegs, 7.13 hand value, and 6.57 crib value = 15.27. If choosing 4-5-6-7 with 3-K discard, the combined values are even lower: 1.91 pegs, 9.54 hand value, and 3.49 crib value for total of 14.95.
usacoder says: Yes, the code includes pegging.
usacoder says: And getting to 20 does include the crib, so there is those points too.
usacoder says: I missed that other 15'er. That's why my bro-in-law luvs playing w/ me - there's usually a coupla' free muggins points in every game.
usacoder says: Fat fingers ... And averaging "21" does include the crib, we are the dealer. So there ARE those points too.
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:34 AM
Wanted to keep an out card in case of a middle card lead. And we still have the powerful 5-6 magic 11, and the 4-5-6 combo intact. Not the cut we were looking for, but maybe that 3 in the crib will work nicely with the deuce cut.
SallyAnn3 says: Congrats on Bronze last night, Mike. Pete is on fire lately!
mfetchCT425 says: Thanks Sally! Yes, Pete is unstoppable right now. Hope to play tonight. See you there.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:45 AM
Only an ace cut misses our hand, 2 Magic 11s, and and offensive peggers as well.
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:30 AM
Don’t like the 3 7 nor 7 K to my crib so kept the 4 5 6 7 run. Agree with Rob on pegging aggressively...but not to crazy.
jmudge
700 votes

Joined: July 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:47 AM
The flush was very tempting, but I chose to go with the low-end straight.
Eolus619
1313 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:02 AM
I like being 24 out from 121. I do not like the flush today. All the “tens”, 1/3rd of the deck, miss helping it. Mike eloquently explains why the hold 4-5-6-K works. I have nicknamed the 4-5-6-X the Jazz hold since it is among the first tips I ever put in my notebook. It is there along with his quote “it is usually the best answer until it isn’t. “ Well today, he explains why it isn’t.
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:26 AM
It pays to flush, and I always like it when I can place a 5 in my crib.
Eolus619 says: wasa..while all the "tens" miss this kept hand they do help the five in the crib..point well made
bbaer1 says: Any Heart ten-card does help, and along with the King we threw in our crib, that means 4 out of 15 help the hand and all help our crib.
Eolus619 says: yep..missed the flush contribution..well made point
wasa says: I believe every cut helps either the hand or the crib. Hand increases with A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 plus the TJQK of hearts. The crib for sure increases with 5TJQK so all cuts add at least 2 points to combined hand+crib (if I didn't miscount...)
SallyAnn3
882 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:31 AM
I paid to flush. Every cut helps this hand but faces, and that helps my crib--maybe a lot :) Still holding a magic 11, good peggers, and possible runs with the cut. Bam! from 4 to 13 :) Love those flushes (thanks Marv!)
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:08 AM
Me first. I need to put myself close enough to out next deal. I'll keep the 4567, and take my chances. The 2 might create pin action with the 3 in the crib.

What would be nice is all face cards from the pone. I agree I might be in hot water if the pone has all low cards and wants to peg.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Tuesday 10:08 AM
Always fun when the vote goes 3 or more ways. Learning potential goes up. Need to do better than average if I want to count first and out next hand, all the while pegging defensively.
RubyTuesday
896 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Tuesday 11:09 AM
I flushed and threw 5 K to my crib. Although h this isn’t a popular throw amongst the commenters I’d still throw these cards after reading all your comments.
bbaer1
3663 votes

Joined: February 2011

 
 
 
Tuesday 11:40 AM
I often look at a flush with a side-eye, thinking it’s a red herring. In this case I think it isn’t. 100% of the cuts help me. My cards have a slight gap to help keep the opponent from pegging. If I kept the four-card run, it’s possible to get into a peg war with my opponent, and all they need is four points to go along with a twelve-point hand to win the game. 12-point hands are not that rare! I’ve got a good hand and a good crib. And a good cut! I’ll try to minimize their scoring and play to win on first count next hand (Ras’s Optimal?) Awaiting Hal’s response.
james500 says: Hi Brian, hope you're well. Thank you for taking the time to post today.
Ras2829 says: Hi bbaer1: Hope you are doing better. Nice to hear from you. Like your thinking this day too. Have been told yo are a towering figure in New England!!
HfxKen says: bbaer1 , not sure what you mean by 100% of the cuts help you.
Ras2829 says: Hi HfxKen: What bbaer1 means is that A-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-XH add points to the hand and any other X-pointer adds value to the crib. No card misses doing that. It's a good thing to think of the crib as an extension of the hand when dealing.
HfxKen says: Yes, of course. One of the lessons from your online tutorials and I missed it. Thanks Ras
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 12:08 PM
Does it pay to flush?
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:54 PM
I'll look at four hands 3-4-6-7 (5-K), 4-5-6-K (3-7), 3-4-5-K (6-7) and 5-6-7-K (3-4):

3-4-6-7: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 10½pts

4-5-6-K: 7pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.58) = 10½pts

3-4-5-K: 5pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.98) = 10pts

5-6-7-K:: 5pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 10pts

Potential:

3-4-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/11/13pts with 2222, 444, 555, 666, 8888 = 17 cuts. Plus 9 heart cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

4-5-6-K: Improves with AAAA, 333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 9999 + 15xXs = 38cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, KK = 11 cuts.

3-4-5-K: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/10/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666 = 16 cuts.

5-6-7-K: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 15xs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, KKK = 19 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt past 4th street positional hole and Pone is 6pts short f where they would like to be so I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Pegging:

I think each one of these hands will peg well defensively but the flush will be harder to read.

Summary:

Both 3-4-6-7 and 4-5-6-K have a starting value of 10½pts but the flush has guaranteed improvement and 17 cuts for 8-13 compared to 11 cuts for 11-16pts but 3-4-6-7 also has 0.20pt potential for a heart cut. So I think I'll throw the suited 5-K to my box.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:24 PM
At 97*-105 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %___W2 %
3-4-6-7____7.13+(-2.02)+6.57=11.68____4.9____50.2
4-5-6-K____9.76+(-2.17)+3.63=11.22____4.0____51.1
4-5-6-7____9.54+(-1.96)+3.49=11.07____5.5____51.0
3-4-5-K____7.96+(-2.17)+4.94=10.73____4.5____46.1
3-4-5-6____9.85+(-2.26)+3.09=10.68____3.6____48.2
5-6-7-K____7.83+(-2.20)+4.78=10.41____2.6____44.8

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
3-4-6-7________13.0____50.2
4-5-6-K________10.7____43.6
4-5-6-7________11.9____43.3
3-4-5-K________11.3____48.6
3-4-5-6________12.7____46.5
5-6-7-K________12.8____50.7

The flush is best for expected averages by 0.46pt but 4-5-6-7 and 4-5-6-K are better for Win %s and 4-5-6-K is lowest for Loss %s. So as we're at 4th street positional hole I'll select based on the best compromise value of 4-5-6-K being the second best expected value, second best Win % and lowest Loss % so I'll throw the 3-7.

After the 2 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:29 PM
For the third time in recent days, RAS will choose cards with the greater combined value. It pays to flush! Am thinking an optimal pegging strategy when looking at the pegs, when looking at the six cards. Once seeing the 2H on the deck will downshift to defense as knowing have a guaranteed dealer peg, 12 points in hand, and an assured two points in crib. That would put me at 112 with first count upcoming. The suited 5-K to crib averages 6.73 ((1,742). N/D average is 9-10 (pegs + hand value); so n/d of this hand will have dealer pegging advantage at hole 115.That will leave room for me to peg if necessary without giving the game away. Note in HalscribCLX analysis above, we have better than a 50% chance to win and better than a 50% chance to lose. Will play the 7 on any X-lead, play the 6 on a 2-3-9 lead, would play the four on a 2-7-8 lead, would play the trey on an Ace or 6 lead, and play the 7 on a five lead. That's the plan - and you can develop a mental pegging strategy before the first card hits the table. Most of the time you can execute as planned. In those cases where things don't seem to be going the way you had planned, be flexible enough to alter the plan as the pegging sequence unfolds.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Tuesday 11:17 PM
Heads-up for 2 tournaments:

1. Thursday "usual""
Online Cribbage tournament will be hosted Feb 25th 2021 @ 4pm PST. This tournament is very casual. We will be playing 5 rounds each, one game each round.
To register
1. Go to https://bracketjd.com/
2. Login or create an account (free)
3. Click on the tournament "BlueGreen Cup"
4. Click the button "Sign-Up"
5. Be on the site when the tournament starts

2. A UK one tomorrow(Wed, Feb 24) at 11am Pacific. Same instructions as above except it's "UK Tournament 2", and it's Wednesday, not Thursday:
To register
1. Go to https://bracketjd.com/
2. Login or create an account (free)
3. Click on the tournament "UK Tournament 2"
4. Click the button "Sign-Up"
5. Be on the site when the tournament starts

Enjoy, everyone!
dgergens says: Thanks again JCM! I would have signed up earlier, but the FAQ section is blank, so I wasn't sure.
JCM says: You're welcome, dgergens!