February 23, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by James500
97*-105  ?
30%
24%
19%
8%
8%
8%
0%
Total votes: 250
james500
2777 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 3:16 AM
I've chosen to start with a guarantee of seven points, but some of the other options are quite tempting.
mrob2199
587 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 3:34 AM
I like the pegging power and flexibility of the 4567 as dealer-we have 3 counts to get 24 so we might have to be aggressive in our pegging if we get a bad cut such as an ace-the advantage of throwing K3 in the crib is the 2 cut gives us 2 more in our hand and a decent shot of 6 or 7 in the crib
dec
5171 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:48 AM
Pegging and crib potential for me. I might just play off here on an eight or seven lead. Six lead I just might have to do a four response. dec
Rosemarie44
1820 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 4:22 AM
I don't like the configuration of the flush in this hand that only starts with 4 points. Holding 4-5-6-K starts with 7 points and has many cuts that increase the hand to a maximum of 16 points.
BarryB
35 votes

Joined: December 2020

   
Tuesday 4:42 AM
BarryB
35 votes

Joined: December 2020

   
Tuesday 4:46 AM
3,4 in the crib seemed right with not a big sacrifice to my hand. I do see y'alls strategy. Rethinking mine.
Andy (muesli64)
1918 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 4:58 AM
Need to move along the board as much as possible. This is best way.
usacoder
549 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Tuesday 5:19 AM
My algorithm says on average this scores 21.0 points, I don't see it. Coming in 2nd are the 3-7 and 3-K tosses both averaging 16.5.

Personally, I hate breaking up any run, especially one with a 15 count in it.

The turn card helps a lot, with the flush and adding another 2 points with a 15 count.
mfetchCT425
774 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 5:34 AM
Wanted to keep an out card in case of a middle card lead. And we still have the powerful 5-6 magic 11, and the 4-5-6 combo intact. Not the cut we were looking for, but maybe that 3 in the crib will work nicely with the deuce cut.
Jazzselke
1728 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 5:45 AM
Only an ace cut misses our hand, 2 Magic 11s, and and offensive peggers as well.
Goatman
1672 votes

Joined: March 2017

   
Tuesday 6:30 AM
Don’t like the 3 7 nor 7 K to my crib so kept the 4 5 6 7 run. Agree with Rob on pegging aggressively...but not to crazy.
jmudge
141 votes

Joined: July 2020

   
Tuesday 6:47 AM
The flush was very tempting, but I chose to go with the low-end straight.
Eolus619
268 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Tuesday 7:02 AM
I like being 24 out from 121. I do not like the flush today. All the “tens”, 1/3rd of the deck, miss helping it. Mike eloquently explains why the hold 4-5-6-K works. I have nicknamed the 4-5-6-X the Jazz hold since it is among the first tips I ever put in my notebook. It is there along with his quote “it is usually the best answer until it isn’t. “ Well today, he explains why it isn’t.
wasa
1891 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 7:26 AM
It pays to flush, and I always like it when I can place a 5 in my crib.
SallyAnn3
273 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Tuesday 7:31 AM
I paid to flush. Every cut helps this hand but faces, and that helps my crib--maybe a lot :) Still holding a magic 11, good peggers, and possible runs with the cut. Bam! from 4 to 13 :) Love those flushes (thanks Marv!)
Gougie00
4558 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 8:08 AM
Me first. I need to put myself close enough to out next deal. I'll keep the 4567, and take my chances. The 2 might create pin action with the 3 in the crib.

What would be nice is all face cards from the pone. I agree I might be in hot water if the pone has all low cards and wants to peg.
dgergens
780 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Tuesday 10:08 AM
Always fun when the vote goes 3 or more ways. Learning potential goes up. Need to do better than average if I want to count first and out next hand, all the while pegging defensively.
RubyTuesday
670 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Tuesday 11:09 AM
I flushed and threw 5 K to my crib. Although h this isn’t a popular throw amongst the commenters I’d still throw these cards after reading all your comments.
bbaer1
2879 votes

Joined: February 2011

   
Tuesday 11:40 AM
I often look at a flush with a side-eye, thinking it’s a red herring. In this case I think it isn’t. 100% of the cuts help me. My cards have a slight gap to help keep the opponent from pegging. If I kept the four-card run, it’s possible to get into a peg war with my opponent, and all they need is four points to go along with a twelve-point hand to win the game. 12-point hands are not that rare! I’ve got a good hand and a good crib. And a good cut! I’ll try to minimize their scoring and play to win on first count next hand (Ras’s Optimal?) Awaiting Hal’s response.
joekayak
1302 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Tuesday 12:08 PM
Does it pay to flush?
Coeurdelion
4475 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 3:54 PM
I'll look at four hands 3-4-6-7 (5-K), 4-5-6-K (3-7), 3-4-5-K (6-7) and 5-6-7-K (3-4):

3-4-6-7: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 10½pts

4-5-6-K: 7pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.58) = 10½pts

3-4-5-K: 5pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.98) = 10pts

5-6-7-K:: 5pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 10pts

Potential:

3-4-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/11/13pts with 2222, 444, 555, 666, 8888 = 17 cuts. Plus 9 heart cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

4-5-6-K: Improves with AAAA, 333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 9999 + 15xXs = 38cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, KK = 11 cuts.

3-4-5-K: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/10/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666 = 16 cuts.

5-6-7-K: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 15xs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, KKK = 19 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt past 4th street positional hole and Pone is 6pts short f where they would like to be so I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Pegging:

I think each one of these hands will peg well defensively but the flush will be harder to read.

Summary:

Both 3-4-6-7 and 4-5-6-K have a starting value of 10½pts but the flush has guaranteed improvement and 17 cuts for 8-13 compared to 11 cuts for 11-16pts but 3-4-6-7 also has 0.20pt potential for a heart cut. So I think I'll throw the suited 5-K to my box.
HalscribCLX
4224 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 4:24 PM
At 97*-105 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %___W2 %
3-4-6-7____7.13+(-2.02)+6.57=11.68____4.9____50.2
4-5-6-K____9.76+(-2.17)+3.63=11.22____4.0____51.1
4-5-6-7____9.54+(-1.96)+3.49=11.07____5.5____51.0
3-4-5-K____7.96+(-2.17)+4.94=10.73____4.5____46.1
3-4-5-6____9.85+(-2.26)+3.09=10.68____3.6____48.2
5-6-7-K____7.83+(-2.20)+4.78=10.41____2.6____44.8

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
3-4-6-7________13.0____50.2
4-5-6-K________10.7____43.6
4-5-6-7________11.9____43.3
3-4-5-K________11.3____48.6
3-4-5-6________12.7____46.5
5-6-7-K________12.8____50.7

The flush is best for expected averages by 0.46pt but 4-5-6-7 and 4-5-6-K are better for Win %s and 4-5-6-K is lowest for Loss %s. So as we're at 4th street positional hole I'll select based on the best compromise value of 4-5-6-K being the second best expected value, second best Win % and lowest Loss % so I'll throw the 3-7.

After the 2 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
4020 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 8:29 PM
For the third time in recent days, RAS will choose cards with the greater combined value. It pays to flush! Am thinking an optimal pegging strategy when looking at the pegs, when looking at the six cards. Once seeing the 2H on the deck will downshift to defense as knowing have a guaranteed dealer peg, 12 points in hand, and an assured two points in crib. That would put me at 112 with first count upcoming. The suited 5-K to crib averages 6.73 ((1,742). N/D average is 9-10 (pegs + hand value); so n/d of this hand will have dealer pegging advantage at hole 115.That will leave room for me to peg if necessary without giving the game away. Note in HalscribCLX analysis above, we have better than a 50% chance to win and better than a 50% chance to lose. Will play the 7 on any X-lead, play the 6 on a 2-3-9 lead, would play the four on a 2-7-8 lead, would play the trey on an Ace or 6 lead, and play the 7 on a five lead. That's the plan - and you can develop a mental pegging strategy before the first card hits the table. Most of the time you can execute as planned. In those cases where things don't seem to be going the way you had planned, be flexible enough to alter the plan as the pegging sequence unfolds.
JCM
482 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Tuesday 11:17 PM
Heads-up for 2 tournaments:

1. Thursday "usual""
Online Cribbage tournament will be hosted Feb 25th 2021 @ 4pm PST. This tournament is very casual. We will be playing 5 rounds each, one game each round.
To register
1. Go to https://bracketjd.com/
2. Login or create an account (free)
3. Click on the tournament "BlueGreen Cup"
4. Click the button "Sign-Up"
5. Be on the site when the tournament starts

2. A UK one tomorrow(Wed, Feb 24) at 11am Pacific. Same instructions as above except it's "UK Tournament 2", and it's Wednesday, not Thursday:
To register
1. Go to https://bracketjd.com/
2. Login or create an account (free)
3. Click on the tournament "UK Tournament 2"
4. Click the button "Sign-Up"
5. Be on the site when the tournament starts

Enjoy, everyone!