Sunday 3:11 AM

Would like to discard K9, but don't want to be left with such a tightly bunched hand. Need something to escape with.
3S lead and take the 15/2 if paired rather than risk giving away 12/12 by trebling.

Sunday 3:15 AM

A-K looks very good. But I am wrong every other day! lol

   

Sunday 3:19 AM

Expected averages favor holding 3349 and tossing A-K to dealer (safe discard). Hand starts at 4 points and has maximum of 12 points. Seventeen cuts increase hand to 8 or 12 points (8888, 999, 2222, 33, 5555) going. for the higher end of maximum.
In comparison, if I were to toss 4-K and hold A339 starting at 4 points and has a maximum of 14 points, only 9 cuts increase hand to 8, 12, or 14 points (999, 33, 2222).

   

Sunday 4:57 AM

Agree if I was opponent and could read anything after the cut I would jump on the hand with the K-9 discard. So 2-3-5 cuts do me well but seeing no points added here I will play defense and entertain the idea of either a 2-3-4 or 3-4-5 trap. Looks like its now more about keeping opponent short here of a par reach. dec

   

Sunday 5:01 AM

My favorite toss, AK. Lead the 3 and play off. With a little luck the dealer will be too far back to go out next deal.

   

Sunday 5:19 AM

Would have tossed 9-K if we were a little further down the board, say at hole 100+. How many times do we play all out defense and then get dealt a dud on 4th street to fall short. I like this hold which has potential for 12 and better pegging flexibility than the A-3-3-4. Will lead my 3s.

   

Sunday 6:04 AM

Agree 100 percent with Mike today

   

Sunday 6:21 AM

Seems like we are agreed so far.

   

Sunday 6:36 AM

One danger with a hi-low toss such as AK is a 23 throw by our opponent, but here we are holding 2 threes. And we have an ace and a 4 to reduce the odds of A4 by the dealer also. So let's hold 4 instead of 2, as highlighted by Mike

   

Sunday 7:05 AM

Almost went with the 9/K balk and more cuts, but decided to try for 8-12 with a good cut.

   

Sunday 10:28 AM

With the majority this day as A-K offers the best combined values and a slightly defensive discard as it scores 0-2 points 37.106%. The A-K also scores 8 or more better than 1 in 5 tosses. Tossing the 4-K is about .25 point less in combined value based on scant empirical evidence. So it goes, with dealer at hole 94 (one hole short of 4th street CPZ 95-99), will play SAFE. Avoid pegs unless seemingly safe, lead a trey, if paired will pass up the triple and take the 15-2 with the play of the 9. If dealer plays on my trey with a small card other than the trey, will escape with the 9. Dealer playing on here is a sign needs pegs. Don't want to oblige dealer. Would sooner watch dealer sweat on the last leg of this game. Although the 9-K is certainly the lowest scoring among these cards, reducing n/d hand to two points, negates the differences in the lower crib values of the 9-K toss.

   

Sunday 10:50 AM

First, if you missed Ras’s late yesterday afternoon answer to me about exceptions to the two point sacrifice rule suggest you read it @ the very bottom of the comments yesterday. It was his version of Jazz’s “well it’s the best answer until it isn’t”. Thanks to all who commented & voted today. The comments were insightful & educational. Particularly the discussion concerning A-K verse 9-K discards and Ras’s insightful comments on game strategy & pegging.However,when a submission gets the elite tournament players all picking the same keep and voters giving one keep more than 50% it is not a enough of a thought provoking puzzle imo. My self analysis grade…Educational “B”…Challenging “D” ..

   

Sunday 3:34 PM

I may not be attending the tourneys next week. My wife and I are going to Vancouver for a surgery(hers) that can't be done in my city. Will be gone for about a week. I do all my tourneys on my PC, which I'm leaving behind. Taking my small Galaxy tablet with me.

Problem is, my tablet won't load bracketjd.com(tourney site). Reasons are mysterious to me - I think I'm becoming a technological dinosaur! So, unless I can convince it to load, I'll be at the tourneys in spirit, if not in person. The tablet did load the Cribbage JD App - so I can play games there.

Be back in about a week. I can vote/comment on CHOD on my tablet - so you'll see me that way:-)

So, heads up - Tourney Thursday 4pm Pacific and a UKCA one Wednesday 11am Pacific. Go to bracketjd.com for the info on both.

Have a great week everyone!

   

Sunday 3:41 PM

I think it is between 3-3-4-9 (A-K), A-3-3-4 (9-K) and A-3S-9-K:

3-3-4-9: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.30) = -½pt

A-3-3-4: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.03) = -2pts

A-3S-9-K: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.96) = -1¾pts

Potential:

3-3-4-9: Improves with 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/12pts with 2222, 33, 5555, 8888, 999 = 17 cuts.

A-3-3-4: Improves with AAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 7777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/8/10pts with 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 7777, 8888 = 21 cuts.

A-3S-9-K: Improves with AAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 999, KKK = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 8/11pts with AAA, 2222, 33, 5555 = 13 cuts. Plus 9 spades for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Position:

Opponent is 2pts short of 4th street positional hole as Dealer. We're 1pt short so if we can hold opponent back we'll be reasonably on targwt to go out as Dealer next hand. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

A-3-3-4 is a 4-card magic eleven and has all low cards so I think will score well in the pegging but playing Defense the flush has a good wide spread and will be hard to read so I think should peg best.6.65+

Summary:

3-3-4-9 has the best starting value by 1¼/1½pts and although A-3-3-4 has more cuts for improvement 3-3-4-9 increases with 24 cuts 17 of which score 8/12pts. So I'll throw the A-K.

   

Sunday 3:44 PM

At 95-94* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total____W2 %____W3 %
3-3-4-9____6.65+(-2.35)+(-4.08)= 0.22___40.9____58.9
A-3-3-9____6.13+(-2.28)+(-4.07)=(-0.22)__36.0____58.1
A-3-3-4____5.61+(-2.63)+(-4.23)=(-1.25)__40.4____57.8
A-3S-9-K___6.15+(-2.52)+(-5.64)=(-2.01)__35.2____49.7

Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
3-3-4-9________33.2____27.8
A-3-3-9________32.3____29.4
A-3-3-4________34.6____28.9
A-3S-9-K_______42.5____37.8

3-3-4-9 is best for expected averages by 0.44pt and is slightly better than A-3-3-4 for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select A-K to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play a SAFE strategy for the pegging:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3_____________________(-2.10)
4_____________________(-2.31)
9_____________________(-2.63)

   

Monday 2:28 AM

I thought everyone here was in agreement, do anything and everything to get "magic 11s" at the end of the match? Did I miss a memo?