April 4, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by JCM
112-110*  ?
33%
33%
31%
31%
25%
25%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 189
JCMFrom an actual game(24 Feb). I want to make 9 pts on first show as pone. What to discard? I grit my teeth and discarded 3-3, and a 5 was cut. I lost 119-121. What's the best way to go?
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4354 votes)

Sunday 4:14 AM
2-3-3-7 for me.
Cuts of A,2,3,4,5,7 or X all increase the hand to a value of 8+.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6866 votes)

Sunday 4:44 AM
2-3-3 may get us one to five points on the pegging also. Deciding factor for me. dec
dec says: If we were at 109 then 3-7-7-8 would be the choice to add in the five cut possibility. dec
JCM

Joined: April 2019 (910 votes)

Sunday 4:47 AM
There's something wrong in my description. Discarding 33 means holding 2788. If a 5 was cut that makes a 10-pt hand where I needed 9. I couldn't have lost.

Maybe the score was actually 109-110*, and I needed 12 points. The pieces would fit together now. Let's pretend that is the situation:

109-110*,
the 6 cards still being 233788.

Apologies for the mix-up.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6180 votes)

Sunday 5:19 AM
I guessed right. The 233 was staying together just in case a face as cut. Lead the 3 and play off.

Happy Easter.
scottcrib

Joined: August 2019 (2079 votes)

Sunday 6:30 AM
Kept it this way because a face card cut means I only have to peg one. In JCM's revised scenario, I would do the same discard, but then needing to peg 3.
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1769 votes)

Sunday 7:08 AM
Every cut adds points..only the 6,8 & 9 don’t get the hand to 8 or more ..then see dec’s point about pegging potential
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4488 votes)

Sunday 7:27 AM
Looks like it’s been covered by those above me. Nice cut.
SallyAnn3

Joined: March 2020 (1263 votes)

Sunday 8:41 AM
Ditto. Worth giving up 2 points to cut a face, and low peggers in the race.
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1196 votes)

Sunday 9:25 AM
I decided against throwing 8 8. I wish I hadn’t, for all the reasons you give above.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Sunday 10:47 AM
Score matters into if choosing offense pegging strategy. RAS was thinking offense when looking at the pegs, when looking, at the six cards, and will down shift to defense once knowing that am out with first count. Anywhere on the board if the choice were offense, holding 2-3-3-7 has a wide margin as all 46 cards add value, and the cards with higher pegging value have been retained. If holding 2-7-8-8, A, 3, 4, 10, J, Q, and K add nothing. That's more than half the deck! Will lead a trey and will not triple if dealer pairs. Don't need the 6 pegs. See way too many games lost on fourth street when giving up 12 pegs for a quad. Only way dealer can peg 11 for a win is to gain substantial help from n/d. Sorry, dealer, you're on your own!
Ras2829 says: Sorry - "into" in opening sentence should be "not".
Ras2829 says: BTW would lead the 3C as plan to drop the 2 second card played if reasonably safe to do so. So will fake a flush at that point with two clubs on the table. A fake flush will not be read by many players unless you show them two unrelated cards such as 9H-KH, 6C-KC, etc. A suited 2-3 would not register in the same way.
jmudge

Joined: July 2020 (1036 votes)

Sunday 11:17 AM
Nice puzzle today! Kept the magic elevens, although I don't know how much good it will do this late in the game.
HaydenSr says: Hello jmudge, quick tip; when we are pone, look for 3 card magic 11's. Otherwise the pegs wont calculate.
joekayak

Joined: May 2016 (1877 votes)

Sunday 12:44 PM
Most cuts for the win. Best offensive pegging hand if offense needed. Once I see the cut, I am with Ras, once I am out, DEFENSE-NO TRIPLES.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Sunday 4:20 PM
We need 9pts to get out so I think it's got to be between 2-3-3-7 (8-8), 3-7-8-8 (2-3) and 2-7-8-8 (3-3) discards:

2-3-3-7: Improves to 9pts or more with AAAA, 33, 4444 = 10 cuts. Plus it improves to 8pts with 222, 5555, 777 + 16xXs = 26 cuts.

3-7-8-8: Improves to 9pts or more with 4444, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 17 cuts. Plus it improves to 8pts with 333, 5555, = 7 cuts.

2-7-8-8: Improves to 9pts or more with 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 17 cuts. Plus it improves to 8pts with 222 = 3 cuts.

So although 2-3-3-7 doesn't have the most cuts for 9pts or more it does have 26 cuts for 8pts and with 3 low cards and a middle card it has a very good chance of pegging the extra 1pt. So I'll throw the 8-8.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5711 votes)

Sunday 4:22 PM
At 112-110* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Win %s are:

Offense__________Win %
2-3-3-7__________92.0
3-7-8-8__________61.7
2-7-8-8__________59.1

2-3-3-7 is best for Win %s by a large margin so I'll throw the 8-8.

After the 3 cut I'll lead a 3 and play Defense:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3____________________(-2.26)
2____________________(-2.48)
7____________________(-2.62)
HaydenSr

Joined: April 2020 (1878 votes)

Sunday 6:08 PM
For all the reasons above. Happy Easter to you all.
Ras2829 says: H HaydenSr: Thanks for the Ester greetings. Hope this day was very special for you as well!
Ras2829 says: Sorry hard to pronounce Ester as Easter!
HaydenSr says: It was Mr Ras. It was a very good day. Thank you.