April 5, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by fentesk
113-118*  ?
48%
15%
7%
7%
4%
4%
3%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 259
fenteskThere seems to be a lot of ways this can go wrong, what's the choice that gives the best chance of it going right? Starter card was a 4. (Actual game played out where Dealer held A-4-4-Q and I held 2-5-5-5. Play was: 2 (A) 5 (4) 5 (Q) (4) - 31 || 5 Leaving Dealer at 120. I thought I was dead after dealer played the first 4, but thankfully they couldn't complete a run.
james500
2826 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 3:42 AM
Tough to win this way, but there's a chance to see my name in lights for getting a 29.

Jack lead, which probably won't be "fifteened".
Rosemarie44
1856 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 3:54 AM
Keep all the fives for safety in pegging. I kept the Jack to get a higher count, too.
RubyTuesday
698 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Monday 4:59 AM
I kept enough points to win if dealer doesn’t peg out, but wanted more variety in what I held in my hand than J 5 5 5. I may have been wrong there of course.
Gougie00
4608 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 5:42 AM
The dealer is 3 out and object is to get to hole 121, not hole 141. Lead the Jack and hold the dealer to 2 holes. He probably doesnt have a 5.
zeke76
901 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Monday 6:40 AM
I didn't want to be stuck with three 5s, but wanted to have enough to go out.
fentesk
110 votes

Joined: January 2021

   
Monday 6:53 AM
As noted in my comment to submission, this is what I went with and am excited to see how others would play it.

If anyone has insights to share on how dealer cards kept in an endgame scenario change from normal hands, I'd be happy to see them. For instance, normally dealer keeps J and Q at nearly the same rate, should this be expected here? I'd expect more low cards kept, which worried me about the 2.
SallyAnn3
320 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Monday 7:20 AM
Because I've never had a 29, I'm going for it. Congrats to jazzselke for getting a real 29 yesterday in Deadwood! Also to Rob for his second place showing yesterday there!
Andy (muesli64)
1946 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Monday 8:00 AM
I am going for 29!! I don't care about the game lol.
wasa
1941 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Monday 9:14 AM
Only a few ways to keep enough points to count out. 5-5-J-Q, 2-5-5-5, 5-5-5-J, 5-5-5-Q. Wanted to lead the 2 as dealer can only score with three cards. Leading the J or Q means dealer can score with 4 cards.
JCM
551 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Monday 11:31 AM
The 2 is the safest lead. So keep that. Given we have 3 5s, keep a couple of them. Keep as many clubs as possible to fake a flush in that suit.
dgergens
815 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Monday 11:51 AM
I would rather have kept 255Q like JCM for defensive pegging purposes (afraid I will have to lead 5 on the second battle with 2555), but I lack confidence that I'll score 2 points while pegging, so kept the 8 fer sure points.
dec
5221 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 1:52 PM
The goal is 121-120 period for me. Bias is for dealer to keep low cards and yes they will get one so hope they have no aces in the hand. Queen lead we might still have to play a five next no matter what. dec
Coeurdelion
4524 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 2:46 PM
I think the most sensible thing to do would be to keep 5-5-J-Q which would guarantee we had enough and would hopefully stop Dealer pegging 3pts. But I'm not going to give up this chance of a 29 hand as I ve never had one yet (except on computer play) so if this were real life I'd keep 5-5-5-J unless it were a critical game in a tournament when I'd throw 2-5.
HalscribCLX
4269 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 3:00 PM
At 113-118* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Dealer Peg Out %s and Hold Enough %s are:

Offense_______Dlr Peg Out %_____Hold Out %
5-5-J-Q___________66.8____________100.0
2-5-J-Q___________68.2_____________61.2
2-5-5-J___________76.3_____________84.5
2-5-5-Q___________76.3_____________80.2
5-5-5-J___________82.1____________100.0
2-5-5-5___________94.5____________100.0

Only 3 hands guarantee we will Hold Enough and 5-5-J-Q has a very much lower chance of Dealer Pegging Out than 5-5-5-J and 2-5-5-5. So I'll throw 2-5.

After the 9 cut I'll lead the Q and play Defense:

Lead________Dealer's Pegging Pts._____Win %
J_________________(-1.30)_____________28.3
Q_________________(-1.36)_____________28.7
5_________________(-1.36)_____________20.5

The J lead is very slightly lowest for Dealer's Pegging Pts. but the Q lead is very slightly best for Win %s so I'll lead the Q.
Ras2829
4073 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 4:16 PM
Dealer averages 3-5 pegs - here needs three so dealer peg-out % ought to be right around 70%. Our challenge is to limit dealer to two pegs. Our best chance to do that is to hold 5-5-J-Q. Dealer will hold as available from the six cards dealt A-5 which have high pegging value,6-7-8-9 which have moderate pegging value, the Jack which has low pegging value, and discard 10-Q-K which have no pegging value. For that reason the Queen is the slightly better lead, dump the 5C second card played, and will likely give up two pegs (go or last card). If we do everything right and have a bit of luck down her, n/d chances to win are about 30%. Those are close to what the cribbot shows. Admittedly a 94.5% chance for dealer to peg out seems too high given any set of cards.