April 5, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by fentesk
113-118*  ?
48%
15%
7%
7%
4%
4%
3%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 259
fenteskThere seems to be a lot of ways this can go wrong, what's the choice that gives the best chance of it going right? Starter card was a 4. (Actual game played out where Dealer held A-4-4-Q and I held 2-5-5-5. Play was: 2 (A) 5 (4) 5 (Q) (4) - 31 || 5 Leaving Dealer at 120. I thought I was dead after dealer played the first 4, but thankfully they couldn't complete a run.
james500
3920 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 3:42 AM
Tough to win this way, but there's a chance to see my name in lights for getting a 29.

Jack lead, which probably won't be "fifteened".
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 3:54 AM
Keep all the fives for safety in pegging. I kept the Jack to get a higher count, too.
RubyTuesday
911 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Monday 4:59 AM
I kept enough points to win if dealer doesn’t peg out, but wanted more variety in what I held in my hand than J 5 5 5. I may have been wrong there of course.
Gougie00
5727 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 5:42 AM
The dealer is 3 out and object is to get to hole 121, not hole 141. Lead the Jack and hold the dealer to 2 holes. He probably doesnt have a 5.
MiketheExpert says: I chose the same. Realizing you are going to have to count out, there doesn't seem to be any advantage to holding 3 5's in your hand. You are obviously not leading a 5, so holding both J and Q seeing as your opponent will most likely not score 15 seems to be the safest best to score a go without your opponent pegging out. The 2 worked in fentesk's example, but it was lucky as usually it would more likely give your opponent the run to peg out and end the game.
zeke76
1393 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Monday 6:40 AM
I didn't want to be stuck with three 5s, but wanted to have enough to go out.
fentesk
1200 votes

Joined: January 2021
 
 
 
Monday 6:53 AM
As noted in my comment to submission, this is what I went with and am excited to see how others would play it.

If anyone has insights to share on how dealer cards kept in an endgame scenario change from normal hands, I'd be happy to see them. For instance, normally dealer keeps J and Q at nearly the same rate, should this be expected here? I'd expect more low cards kept, which worried me about the 2.
MiketheExpert says: that's another advantage in my opinion to keeping the J an Q. Dealer should be trying hard to peg out, he only needs to score 2 as he has the automatic point. Holding face cards would be to his disadvantage for the very reason you shouldn't lead a 5 in this situation. And seeing that he would be more likely to keep low cards, the 5 is a dangerous card during the course of play, as he can play any number of connected or semi-connected cards (3, 4, 6, 7) for which you would be forced to play the 5 and have him scoring the run to peg out.
SallyAnn3 says: I expect the dealer to be holding a variety of low cards, so I didn't keep the 2 because I didn't want to lead it, even if I wasn't holding for the 29
fentesk says: I'm warming up to the 2-5 discard. I had convinced myself (potentially incorrectly) that keeping two different face cards increased the chances of them being able to pair and win over keeping a single non five (the 2). I also was fairly sure if they were dealt an ace they'd keep it and I'd have to avoid letting the count hit 30. With that said, I was also thinking they'd have a higher chance of keeping a J over Q in this situation and I would have kept 5-5-5-Q over 5-5-5-J, and then the opponent happened to have a Q (not that a single instance should matter on what is the correct keep).
MiketheExpert says: It's not a good situation no matter what :) The best card for the dealer to keep would be a 5 (also the most unlikely), followed by 6 thru 9, because they have the most combos to score 2 for the dealer to win right away. The worst cards for him to keep are the faces (10 through K). And I think he would have a slightly higher change of holding a J for the tiny possibility that his hand would score 0, and he would not be able to peg more than 2 points, providing n/d doesn't count out (thereby the 1 point nobs hand making the difference). This makes the Q the safest lead (which in your game as it turns out, would have lost). Also, to score a 29 point hand but not being able to count it just doesn't sit right with me, lol.
Ras2829 says: Hi fentesk: Interesting puzzle - keep 'em coming!
SallyAnn3
907 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Monday 7:20 AM
Because I've never had a 29, I'm going for it. Congrats to jazzselke for getting a real 29 yesterday in Deadwood! Also to Rob for his second place showing yesterday there!
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Monday 8:00 AM
I am going for 29!! I don't care about the game lol.
fentesk says: I appreciate this approach. I think for me I'd be bothered if I got 28/29 but didn't get to score it because the opponent went out. Perhaps somewhat similarly, there have been a couple of occasions where I tossed 5-5 to my opponent's crib knowing the crib was never going to score for the slight chance it would mess with their head in the next game.
SallyAnn3 says: The $100 you get in sanctioned tourney would help lol
Coeurdelion says: If you don't get to score the 29pts. do you still get the $100? Do you get the badge from the ACC?
Ras2829 says: Hi Coeurdelion: In our club, it would count if you held it, even though you did not score it. Think that you would get credit for the 29, even if not scored in most ACC venues
wasa
3015 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Monday 9:14 AM
Only a few ways to keep enough points to count out. 5-5-J-Q, 2-5-5-5, 5-5-5-J, 5-5-5-Q. Wanted to lead the 2 as dealer can only score with three cards. Leading the J or Q means dealer can score with 4 cards.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Monday 11:31 AM
The 2 is the safest lead. So keep that. Given we have 3 5s, keep a couple of them. Keep as many clubs as possible to fake a flush in that suit.
wasa says: Don't you want to keep enough points to go out? With a cut of A,4,6,7, or 9 you will have to peg 2 points - not an easy task for non-dealer
JCM says: I think you're right. I replied before having coffee. Moral - be awake when deciding your discards :-)
JCM says: wasa: What do you think of the verdicts from Coeurdelion and Hal?
wasa says: Hi JCM. I don't know enough about HAL to judge. Computer programs are only as good as the programmer and the logic used. So much depends on the opponent. When I play family members, I play slightly differently with each person as they all have their "methods" (as do I). Hard to believe that 2-5-5-5 is so much worse than 5-5-J-Q for dealer to peg out. I've disagreed with HAL's choices before, but hard to disagree with both HAL and RAS when they are in agreement. Would love to see an analysis of 1000 hands played with this scenario.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Monday 11:51 AM
I would rather have kept 255Q like JCM for defensive pegging purposes (afraid I will have to lead 5 on the second battle with 2555), but I lack confidence that I'll score 2 points while pegging, so kept the 8 fer sure points.
dec
6355 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 1:52 PM
The goal is 121-120 period for me. Bias is for dealer to keep low cards and yes they will get one so hope they have no aces in the hand. Queen lead we might still have to play a five next no matter what. dec
Coeurdelion
5592 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 2:46 PM
I think the most sensible thing to do would be to keep 5-5-J-Q which would guarantee we had enough and would hopefully stop Dealer pegging 3pts. But I'm not going to give up this chance of a 29 hand as I ve never had one yet (except on computer play) so if this were real life I'd keep 5-5-5-J unless it were a critical game in a tournament when I'd throw 2-5.
HalscribCLX
5315 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:00 PM
At 113-118* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Dealer Peg Out %s and Hold Enough %s are:

Offense_______Dlr Peg Out %_____Hold Out %
5-5-J-Q___________66.8____________100.0
2-5-J-Q___________68.2_____________61.2
2-5-5-J___________76.3_____________84.5
2-5-5-Q___________76.3_____________80.2
5-5-5-J___________82.1____________100.0
2-5-5-5___________94.5____________100.0

Only 3 hands guarantee we will Hold Enough and 5-5-J-Q has a very much lower chance of Dealer Pegging Out than 5-5-5-J and 2-5-5-5. So I'll throw 2-5.

After the 9 cut I'll lead the Q and play Defense:

Lead________Dealer's Pegging Pts._____Win %
J_________________(-1.30)_____________28.3
Q_________________(-1.36)_____________28.7
5_________________(-1.36)_____________20.5

The J lead is very slightly lowest for Dealer's Pegging Pts. but the Q lead is very slightly best for Win %s so I'll lead the Q.
dgergens says: I'm in no position to prove this, but I just don't agree with the wide gap in dlr peg out numbers between 55JQ and 2555. Dlr is going to keep a spread of numbers to try and peg out. It could go either way. Don't agree with 28% difference, but agree that 55JQ could have slight advantage.
MiketheExpert says: This agrees with my theory, although I'm surprised the gap is that high, but to me it does kind of make sense. With 2-5-5-5, you have absolutely no options after the 2 lead, and there are so many different ways for him to score more than his 2 points required during the pegging, especially if he's keeping a variety of low cards. The Q or J lessens this risk very significantly.
Ras2829
5151 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:16 PM
Dealer averages 3-5 pegs - here needs three so dealer peg-out % ought to be right around 70%. Our challenge is to limit dealer to two pegs. Our best chance to do that is to hold 5-5-J-Q. Dealer will hold as available from the six cards dealt A-5 which have high pegging value,6-7-8-9 which have moderate pegging value, the Jack which has low pegging value, and discard 10-Q-K which have no pegging value. For that reason the Queen is the slightly better lead, dump the 5C second card played, and will likely give up two pegs (go or last card). If we do everything right and have a bit of luck down her, n/d chances to win are about 30%. Those are close to what the cribbot shows. Admittedly a 94.5% chance for dealer to peg out seems too high given any set of cards.
Ras2829 says: BTW would have gone for the 29 if playing in Reno where $1,000 is often paid for the first 29 hand of a tournament, in Chehalis-Centralia GR club which pas $100 for 29, and in official GR play for which one of crib's most beautiful awards is offered. Doesn't seem to be much of a reason to go for that 29 on this site.
fentesk says: I appreciate the answer won't change it being worth going for it - would you get anything in this situation if the dealer goes out but you hold 29? Or would you have to score it?
Ras2829 says: Hi fentyesk: In our club, it would count if you held it, even though you did not score it. Think that you would get credit for the 29, even if not scored in most venues.