April 6, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by James500
73*-86  ?
56%
27%
13%
2%
Total votes: 246
Rosemarie44
1856 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:18 AM
Hold the double run to start with 10 points and a possible maximum of 21 points. Expected averages of this choice is about a point higher than holding the flush.(hand and crib).
dec
5221 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:35 AM
Automatic to me. Especially with these positions. dec
james500
2826 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 4:05 AM
Hopefully this arrangement can make up for the point I've sacrificed to avoid putting Q-6 in my crib.

Nice cut regardless whether you chose 456Q (3-3), 3345 (Q-6) or the 345Q (3-6) flush.
joekayak
1349 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Tuesday 4:17 AM
Every cut helps this hand/throw.
glmccuskey
3375 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Tuesday 5:11 AM
This hold has to much up side to ignore. Nice cut for 21 points. Defense to the lead.
dgergens
815 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Tuesday 5:31 AM
Alone again. Looking forward to the numbers. Was gambling pone would slough off a 3 or 9.
zeke76
901 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Tuesday 6:08 AM
You are not alone dgergens, though I'm not sure my throws make for good company.
Eolus619
318 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Tuesday 6:40 AM
dec’s & Rosemarie’s keep choices are frequently a good “lighthouse.” I happened to pick their keep starting with 10:points . The cut produces a 21 hand, but the real pivot point in the game is how close to 112 will current n/d be when (s)he is counting first two hands from now . Current dealer is on the wrong side of the cycle.
wasa
1941 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 6:42 AM
Hard to justify the flush over the 3-3-4-5, although the thought crossed my mind.
jmudge
167 votes

Joined: July 2020

   
Tuesday 6:58 AM
I normally would have held the 456 run, but the double run was too good to pass upon.
Andy (muesli64)
1946 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 7:03 AM
Text book throw.
JCM
551 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Tuesday 7:34 AM
At 73*-86 we need to make up some ground and this keep makes the most points. Even with Q6 to crib, it will usually contribute another 3-6 pts. 3345 pegs well, too.

Heads-up: UKCA tourney tomorrow(Apr 7) at 11am PDT. Free and fun and all welcome.

Go to bracketjd.com to sign up.
mrob2199
630 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 7:38 AM
Like the 2 chances to help the hand or the crib over the “all eggs in one basket “ 3345 hold-tho it is a very pretty basket! The 456Q provides us with a slightly stronger defensive pegging hand,which is very important with pone already at 86-although we are very far out this hold also contains the bingo cuts of a 4 or 5
SallyAnn3
320 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Tuesday 8:50 AM
A dozen that can cut to 20-21. Gotta remember that any toss can turn into 12-14, so off they go.
Ras2829
4073 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 10:05 AM
Looking at the pegs, dealing with the deck at hole 73 with opponent 13 points down the board, it's offense all the way, same when looking at these six cards, with a sudden downshift to defense pegging strategy once knowing that have 21 points. Once seeing the starter card, limiting n/d movement down the board becomes key. Will play off the lead although would pair a trey. Ditch the lone 5 spot on any X-pointer and likely score 3-3 back to back for 31-4. The magic eleven 3-3-5 often does that for dealer. No need for dealer to struggle with discard in hands with such potential. About half the time dealer needs to dump garbage to crib. Don't struggle with discard in such hands. Pegging and hand score potentials far outweigh the loss in crib value. In this case, the difference based on scant empirical data is nearly 1.5 points.
Gougie00
4608 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 1:47 PM
Not prying that 3345 away from me.
Coeurdelion
4524 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 3:46 PM
I think it's between 3-3-4-5 (6-Q), 4-5-6-Q (3-3) and 3C-4-5-Q (3-6):

3-3-4-5: 10pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.23) = 13¼pts

4-5-6-Q: 7pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 12¾pts

3C-4-5-Q: 9pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 13pts

Potential:

3-3-4-5: Improves with 2222, 33, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 14/16/20/21pts with 33, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888 = 19 cuts.

4-5-6-Q: Improves with AAAA, 33, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, QQQ = 12 cuts.

3C-4-5-Q: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/13/14/16pts with 2222, 33, 444, 555, 666, QQQ = 18 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Position:

We're 3pts past third street positional hole and Pone is on target to reach fourth street positional hole for their next deal. So I'll play Defense to try to slow Pone down.

Pegging:

3-3-4-5 will peg very well with a 3-card magic eleven but the flush will also peg well and playing Defense I think will peg best. Plus it will be hard to read.

Summary:

3-3-4-5 has the best starting value but only by ¼pt. Both 3-3-4-5 and 3C-4-5-Q have the same number of cuts for improvement and with the extra 0.20pt for a club cut the starting values are very close. 3-3-4-5 has 19 cuts for 14-21pts compared to 18 cuts for 12-16pts so I'll throw the 6-Q.
HalscribCLX
4269 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 3:52 PM
At 73*-86 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
3-3-4-5____13.74+(-2.20)+2.99=14.53____34.0____33.8
3C-4-5-Q___12.04+(-2.17)+3.61=13.48____27.6____32.0
4-5-6-Q_____9.76+(-2.20)+5.70=13.26____29.0____32.5

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
3-3-4-5________55.5____54.6
3C-4-5-Q_______54.4____57.6
4-5-6-Q________53.2____56.6

3-3-4-5 is best for expected averages by 0.05pt and is appreciably best for Win %s and although it's not lowest for Loss %s I'll select 6-Q to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
travelingman2019
384 votes

Joined: December 2018

   
Tuesday 8:12 PM
Yes the 21 cut is great, however Q6 will not produce much of a crib, and we need both hands to be productive to get the position back........we choose the flush, but there is great argument to keep 3345 when you are trailing and need every point you can get for position going into 4th street