Tuesday 3:18 AM

Hold the double run to start with 10 points and a possible maximum of 21 points. Expected averages of this choice is about a point higher than holding the flush.(hand and crib).

   

Tuesday 3:35 AM

Automatic to me. Especially with these positions. dec

   

Tuesday 4:05 AM

Hopefully this arrangement can make up for the point I've sacrificed to avoid putting Q-6 in my crib.

Nice cut regardless whether you chose 456Q (3-3), 3345 (Q-6) or the 345Q (3-6) flush.

   

Tuesday 4:17 AM

Every cut helps this hand/throw.

   

Tuesday 5:11 AM

This hold has to much up side to ignore. Nice cut for 21 points. Defense to the lead.

   

Tuesday 5:31 AM

Alone again. Looking forward to the numbers. Was gambling pone would slough off a 3 or 9.

   

Tuesday 6:08 AM

You are not alone dgergens, though I'm not sure my throws make for good company.

   

Tuesday 6:40 AM

dec’s & Rosemarie’s keep choices are frequently a good “lighthouse.” I happened to pick their keep starting with 10:points . The cut produces a 21 hand, but the real pivot point in the game is how close to 112 will current n/d be when (s)he is counting first two hands from now . Current dealer is on the wrong side of the cycle.

   

Tuesday 6:42 AM

Hard to justify the flush over the 3-3-4-5, although the thought crossed my mind.

   

Tuesday 6:58 AM

I normally would have held the 456 run, but the double run was too good to pass upon.

   

Tuesday 7:03 AM

Text book throw.

   

Tuesday 7:34 AM

At 73*-86 we need to make up some ground and this keep makes the most points. Even with Q6 to crib, it will usually contribute another 3-6 pts. 3345 pegs well, too.

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Tuesday 7:38 AM

Like the 2 chances to help the hand or the crib over the “all eggs in one basket “ 3345 hold-tho it is a very pretty basket! The 456Q provides us with a slightly stronger defensive pegging hand,which is very important with pone already at 86-although we are very far out this hold also contains the bingo cuts of a 4 or 5

   

Tuesday 8:50 AM

A dozen that can cut to 20-21. Gotta remember that any toss can turn into 12-14, so off they go.

   

Tuesday 10:05 AM

Looking at the pegs, dealing with the deck at hole 73 with opponent 13 points down the board, it's offense all the way, same when looking at these six cards, with a sudden downshift to defense pegging strategy once knowing that have 21 points. Once seeing the starter card, limiting n/d movement down the board becomes key. Will play off the lead although would pair a trey. Ditch the lone 5 spot on any X-pointer and likely score 3-3 back to back for 31-4. The magic eleven 3-3-5 often does that for dealer. No need for dealer to struggle with discard in hands with such potential. About half the time dealer needs to dump garbage to crib. Don't struggle with discard in such hands. Pegging and hand score potentials far outweigh the loss in crib value. In this case, the difference based on scant empirical data is nearly 1.5 points.

   

Tuesday 1:47 PM

Not prying that 3345 away from me.

   

Tuesday 3:46 PM

I think it's between 3-3-4-5 (6-Q), 4-5-6-Q (3-3) and 3C-4-5-Q (3-6):

3-3-4-5: 10pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.23) = 13¼pts

4-5-6-Q: 7pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 12¾pts

3C-4-5-Q: 9pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 13pts

Potential:

3-3-4-5: Improves with 2222, 33, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 14/16/20/21pts with 33, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888 = 19 cuts.

4-5-6-Q: Improves with AAAA, 33, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, QQQ = 12 cuts.

3C-4-5-Q: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/13/14/16pts with 2222, 33, 444, 555, 666, QQQ = 18 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Position:

We're 3pts past third street positional hole and Pone is on target to reach fourth street positional hole for their next deal. So I'll play Defense to try to slow Pone down.

Pegging:

3-3-4-5 will peg very well with a 3-card magic eleven but the flush will also peg well and playing Defense I think will peg best. Plus it will be hard to read.

Summary:

3-3-4-5 has the best starting value but only by ¼pt. Both 3-3-4-5 and 3C-4-5-Q have the same number of cuts for improvement and with the extra 0.20pt for a club cut the starting values are very close. 3-3-4-5 has 19 cuts for 14-21pts compared to 18 cuts for 12-16pts so I'll throw the 6-Q.

   

Tuesday 3:52 PM

At 73*-86 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
3-3-4-5____13.74+(-2.20)+2.99=14.53____34.0____33.8
3C-4-5-Q___12.04+(-2.17)+3.61=13.48____27.6____32.0
4-5-6-Q_____9.76+(-2.20)+5.70=13.26____29.0____32.5

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
3-3-4-5________55.5____54.6
3C-4-5-Q_______54.4____57.6
4-5-6-Q________53.2____56.6

3-3-4-5 is best for expected averages by 0.05pt and is appreciably best for Win %s and although it's not lowest for Loss %s I'll select 6-Q to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Tuesday 8:12 PM

Yes the 21 cut is great, however Q6 will not produce much of a crib, and we need both hands to be productive to get the position back........we choose the flush, but there is great argument to keep 3345 when you are trailing and need every point you can get for position going into 4th street