April 8, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
111-104*  ?
35%
35%
26%
26%
10%
10%
9%
9%
4%
4%
4%
4%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 214
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4354 votes)

Thursday 3:05 AM
Plenty of helpful cuts. K8 may cause Dealer to come up short if I do too.
3 lead from 335 eleven.
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2249 votes)

Thursday 3:35 AM
I don't think we can afford to toss a pair of 8's to dealer at this position. Secondly we just don't have a good enough hand to work with as it appears we might come up short as James says.
Rosemarie44 says: Yes, we have to play to win - holding 335K would be the best hold, however short it might be.
Rosemarie44 says: Odds of the dealer scoring 17 points is 2 to 1. Odds of the non-dealer scoring 10 points is even. Colvert , "Playing Winning Cribbage".
mrob2199

Joined: February 2009 (1705 votes)

Thursday 4:13 AM
All or nothing throw today-the 2,3,5,or 7 cut get us to 119 and we can plot our course to 2 peg points from there
mrob2199 says: The king also gets us to 8-the other pictures get us to 6
Ras2829 says: Hi mrob2199: You've sold me!
zeke76

Joined: August 2018 (1531 votes)

Thursday 4:46 AM
Also went with the Hail Mary.
Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2343 votes)

Thursday 4:58 AM
Go for it. The balance is fine but with us.
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4488 votes)

Thursday 5:00 AM
Can’t see a reason for defense.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6866 votes)

Thursday 5:05 AM
since d is out of the window , King lead? dec
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6180 votes)

Thursday 5:11 AM
Chalk up a loss. I needed a 2,4 or 7. The dealer probably won't help you by pairing the three. Lead the king and try to mix it up.

Pleasant morning in Northern Massachusetts.
Rosemarie44 says: Mostly cloudy turning to mostly sunny and 59 degrees in Maine.
mfetchCT425

Joined: February 2009 (1638 votes)

Thursday 6:06 AM
With opponent only 17 away with pegs and two counts, I gotta go aggressive here. The 3-card magic 11 may get us some needed pegs. With the awful cut will lead the K.
jmudge

Joined: July 2020 (1036 votes)

Thursday 6:19 AM
Same thoughts as Rosemary and James.
dgergens

Joined: January 2018 (940 votes)

Thursday 6:45 AM
Interesting diellema. We don't get to score first next hand, so either we win or we stay in the game one more round and hope to peg out. If we take 4 pts, we give dealer crib points (with high potential), we are virtually guaranteed to lose if we don't win this hand. If we take 2 points, we may slow down dealer, enough to stay in the game on more time, but will we even be close enough to the end to peg out next deal? What are the chances we would get the average 10 points if we hold 3358? You're gambling on a favorable cut either strategy, 335K has more possible favorable cuts getting us closer to 10 points.
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1196 votes)

Thursday 6:54 AM
Rosemary, James and jmudge explain why I threw K 8 to dealer.
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3397 votes)

Thursday 6:56 AM
Darn the torpedoes, full speed ahead! Leading the K
MiketheExpert

Joined: April 2021 (1318 votes)

Thursday 7:32 AM
I kept 3,3,5,8. I don't think you can afford to toss the par of 8's. This is helped by any many cuts, the only cut that does not help this hand is a 6. Play to peg and score to get out if possible, however there is a good chance you get the deal on the next hand, so as soon as you realize you can't (with this cut), you have to play defense and hope to hole out on the next hand.
Ras2829 says: Hi MiketheExpert: Always good to hear a new voice in the crowd. Welcome aboard and enjoy the ride!
SallyAnn3

Joined: March 2020 (1263 votes)

Thursday 8:23 AM
NIKE! Just DO it. My only hope here
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Thursday 1:56 PM
We need 10pts to go out so I think we should keep the 3-card magic eleven 3-3-5 for the pegging and the K for 4pts. That will give us 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, KKK = 20 cuts to score 8pts or more and needing to peg 2pts if we hold 8pts. So I'll risk the 8-8 throw.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5711 votes)

Thursday 1:57 PM
At 111-104* in this end of game position the Win/Loss %s are the most important factor. So I'll play Offense and the Win/Loss %s are:

Offense_____Win1 %___Loss1 %____Win2 %____Loss2 %
3-3-5-K_____44.2______42.1______53.0_______35.5
5-8-8-K_____21.8______44.2______33.4_______53.7
3-3-5-8_____18.9______28.4______29.3_______61.4
3-5-8-K_____11.7______32.7______26.7_______63.3
3-5-8-8_____17.1______32.1______25.6_______64.7
3-3-8-8_____16.2______51.4______18.6_______69.1

3-3-5-K has by far the highest chances of Winning so I'll select 8-8 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 3D and play Offense:

Lead_______Our Pegging Pts
3_______________2.02
K_______________1.79
5_______________1.36
cribbagepogo

Joined: October 2007 (3302 votes)

Thursday 2:10 PM
K 8spade and K 8 heart the same. Add the two and about equal. Don't want to help so much.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Thursday 2:27 PM
With opponent having first count next deal, am thinking offense from the git-go. Lead the 3d and take any pegs offered. After the lousy cut, need to get down the board aggressively. Two pegs will put me at hole 117 for my next deal with pegging advantage. Still a tough show to chalk up a win as dealer of this hand is very likely to be at the end of the board (120). Even so - don't despair. Play for the win.
wasa says: Hi RAS. I assume you feel there is a better chance to triple a 3 vs playing the two 3s on top of each other. Needing points, I was planning on leading the K, play my 5 next if practical, and pairing my own 3 at the end in my perfect world.
Ras2829 says: Hi wasa: Don't really think there is a chance to triple the treys by leading from them, though I increase my chances to advance the count to 28 if dealer plays a 10-X card with the play of my remining trey for 31-2. Very difficult for n/d to get the treys in back to back for 31-4 and most easy for dealer to do so if holding 3-3-5. That 3-3-5 magic 11 has more magic for dealer. Think that is reflected in Hal's peg points above.
Ras2829 says: Of course if dealer plays a X-point card on my trey lead, dealer would opt for a King if holding such. N/D might then get the four pegs that would (pair a King and score 31-2) otherwise evade me if playing for back-to-back 3-3 for 31-4.
wasa says: Thanks!