Thursday 3:05 AM

Plenty of helpful cuts. K8 may cause Dealer to come up short if I do too.
3 lead from 335 eleven.

   

Thursday 3:35 AM

I don't think we can afford to toss a pair of 8's to dealer at this position. Secondly we just don't have a good enough hand to work with as it appears we might come up short as James says.

   

Thursday 4:13 AM

All or nothing throw today-the 2,3,5,or 7 cut get us to 119 and we can plot our course to 2 peg points from there

   

Thursday 4:46 AM

Also went with the Hail Mary.

   

Thursday 4:58 AM

Go for it. The balance is fine but with us.

   

Thursday 5:00 AM

Can’t see a reason for defense.

   

Thursday 5:05 AM

since d is out of the window , King lead? dec

   

Thursday 5:11 AM

Chalk up a loss. I needed a 2,4 or 7. The dealer probably won't help you by pairing the three. Lead the king and try to mix it up.

Pleasant morning in Northern Massachusetts.

   

Thursday 6:06 AM

With opponent only 17 away with pegs and two counts, I gotta go aggressive here. The 3-card magic 11 may get us some needed pegs. With the awful cut will lead the K.

   

Thursday 6:19 AM

Same thoughts as Rosemary and James.

   

Thursday 6:45 AM

Interesting diellema. We don't get to score first next hand, so either we win or we stay in the game one more round and hope to peg out. If we take 4 pts, we give dealer crib points (with high potential), we are virtually guaranteed to lose if we don't win this hand. If we take 2 points, we may slow down dealer, enough to stay in the game on more time, but will we even be close enough to the end to peg out next deal? What are the chances we would get the average 10 points if we hold 3358? You're gambling on a favorable cut either strategy, 335K has more possible favorable cuts getting us closer to 10 points.

   

Thursday 6:54 AM

Rosemary, James and jmudge explain why I threw K 8 to dealer.

   

Thursday 6:56 AM

Darn the torpedoes, full speed ahead! Leading the K

   

Thursday 7:32 AM

I kept 3,3,5,8. I don't think you can afford to toss the par of 8's. This is helped by any many cuts, the only cut that does not help this hand is a 6. Play to peg and score to get out if possible, however there is a good chance you get the deal on the next hand, so as soon as you realize you can't (with this cut), you have to play defense and hope to hole out on the next hand.

   

Thursday 8:23 AM

NIKE! Just DO it. My only hope here

   

Thursday 1:56 PM

We need 10pts to go out so I think we should keep the 3-card magic eleven 3-3-5 for the pegging and the K for 4pts. That will give us 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, KKK = 20 cuts to score 8pts or more and needing to peg 2pts if we hold 8pts. So I'll risk the 8-8 throw.

   

Thursday 1:57 PM

At 111-104* in this end of game position the Win/Loss %s are the most important factor. So I'll play Offense and the Win/Loss %s are:

Offense_____Win1 %___Loss1 %____Win2 %____Loss2 %
3-3-5-K_____44.2______42.1______53.0_______35.5
5-8-8-K_____21.8______44.2______33.4_______53.7
3-3-5-8_____18.9______28.4______29.3_______61.4
3-5-8-K_____11.7______32.7______26.7_______63.3
3-5-8-8_____17.1______32.1______25.6_______64.7
3-3-8-8_____16.2______51.4______18.6_______69.1

3-3-5-K has by far the highest chances of Winning so I'll select 8-8 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 3D and play Offense:

Lead_______Our Pegging Pts
3_______________2.02
K_______________1.79
5_______________1.36

   

Thursday 2:10 PM

K 8spade and K 8 heart the same. Add the two and about equal. Don't want to help so much.

   

Thursday 2:27 PM

With opponent having first count next deal, am thinking offense from the git-go. Lead the 3d and take any pegs offered. After the lousy cut, need to get down the board aggressively. Two pegs will put me at hole 117 for my next deal with pegging advantage. Still a tough show to chalk up a win as dealer of this hand is very likely to be at the end of the board (120). Even so - don't despair. Play for the win.