Sunday 3:14 AM

I'm the odd one out so far - I just see that any X-pointer gives 8 points and A-A-3-3 should peg fairly well.

It's early enough in the game that we don't have to be defensive, IMO.

   

Sunday 3:30 AM

"Treble nickels".
4 lead.

Another video has been uploaded to the J Kittridge YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/6ymPVXiPui4 for anybody else who enjoys watching them.

   

Sunday 3:59 AM

Ho hum. I threw 4 6 because it seemed a less expensive toss than most alternatives

   

Sunday 4:04 AM

Awesome puzzle today Scott!!! Tough discard in general,and combined with the relative positions becomes almost impossible-I’m going to play for a picture cut here with the somewhat all or nothing 3/6 discard-the AA34 has a decent shot of pegging 3 and if we get the picture cut,which is obviously the most probable cut card,we improve our hand to 8 while most most likely killing the crib-from this position I think that’s the best possible outcome

   

Sunday 4:12 AM

Same same I just picked two clubs here. All or nothing. Twos and faces goal cut here. dec

   

Sunday 5:01 AM

Most defensive discard out of this bunch while still leaving us a good chance to get into decent position with the right cut (face cut or 2, or to a lesser extend a 7 or ace). Will lead the A of clubs.

   

Sunday 5:50 AM

2 ways to hold triple nickels, but would rather throw 36 than 46.

   

Sunday 6:10 AM

need a board position turn around for sure

39-47*......49*-63 ......65-73*

   

Sunday 6:15 AM

There is nothing on the menu that I like. I sort of like the 334 together because maybe a 2, 5 or 8 will be the starter. The 4 cut means they all add up to 15. Oh well, oh well. Lead the 3.

   

Sunday 6:51 AM

Defense is the way to go as indicated by many above me.

   

Sunday 7:42 AM

Against the grain again :( I need to see some of my mentors live so they can "fix" me lol

   

Sunday 12:03 PM

This is a bit of a tough decision. I am behind and want to keep a chance at getting a great hand, but at the same time I can't afford to give up too many points to dealer. I just don't think you can afford to throw the 4 6 in this situation. I opted for defensive discard A 6, at the same time keeping a good pegging hand and decent chances to increase the value. A lot depends on what the dealer is holding, but no X-ray vision today :)

   

Sunday 1:48 PM

I think the choice is between A-A-3-3 (4-6) and A-A-3-4 (3-6):

A-A-3-3: 4pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.34) = -1½pts

A-A-3-4: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.87) = -3pts

Potential:

A-A-3-3: Improves with AA, 2222, 33, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 8/16pts with AA, 2222, 33, 8888 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

A-A-3-4: Improves with AA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6/8/10pts with AA, 2222, 5555, 7777 + 16xXs = 30 cuts.

Position:

Opponent is past 2nd street positional hole and we're well behind. I think our best bet is to keep Dealer short of 60pts if we can so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think A-A-3-3 will peg better.

Summary:

A-A-3-3 is better for starting value by 1½pts and although A-A-3-4 has more cuts for improvement and 30 cuts for 5-10pts A-A-3-3 has a much better maximum at 16pts and 28 cuts for 8/16pts. So I don't think A-A-3-4 has a chance of catching up. Therefore I'll throw the slightly risky suited 4-6.

   

Sunday 1:54 PM

At 39-47* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W5 %___W6 %
A-A-3-3____7.48+1.78+(-5.09)=4.17____2.5____10.4
A-A-3-4____6.26+2.22+(-4.41)=4.07____2.1____10.5
A-3-3-4____5.65+2.52+(-4.51)=3.66____2.0_____9.8

Offense______L5 %___L6 %
A-A-3-3_______23.4___55.1
A-A-3-4_______21.9___54.4
A-3-3-4_______22.1___54.8

A-A-3-3 is best for expected averages by a slim 0.10pt and also best for Win % by a very slight margin. A-A-3-4 is slightly lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 4-6 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead a 3 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
3____________________1.81
A____________________1.53

   

Sunday 3:16 PM

Was going to chime in before Hal and Coeurdelion - but too late for that.

Many here went for the A-3-3-4 keep, discarding A-6. Can't be certain but I suspect they feared the possibility of a 24pt crib if they discarded 4-6.

I wondered what the probability of that is. I used to know a thing or 2 about combinations, permutations, etc - but it's been so long I don't know how to calculate those things anymore.

So I "cheated" and found a calculator for these things. Looks useful. Here's its website before I proceed: https://www.dcode.fr/picking-probabilities

I white-listed it(permitting ads) because it looks that useful.(They nag you if you don't. I rarely whitelist any site.)

To achieve that fearsome 24pt crib, 2 probabilities must be calculated and then multiplied together:

1. The chance that the cut card will be a 4,5 or 6.
2. The chance that the 2 cards the dealer puts in his crib are any 2 of 4,5 or 6.

After the deal, we are drawing from a set of 46 cards. So on the website, we put 46 as the "total number of objects". After seeing our hand, there are remaining a total of 10 cards that are 4,5, or 6. That's 3 fours, 4 fives, and 3 sixes. On the website, these are the objects that are "distinct" from the others. So we enter 10 in that box. This much applies to both the wanted calculations above.

Now for the 1st calculation. We are drawing just 1 card(starter). So 1 goes into the "number of objects picked" box.

We want that card to be a 4,5 or 6. So 1 goes into the box "number of objects picked among those distinct".

You get 4 choices as to how you want the probability displayed. I chose the "odds" format and it calculated 2 chances out of 9 - that's 2/9. All the 4 choices say the same thing - just differing formats.

That 2/9 figure will have to be multiplied by the 2nd calculated probability - the chance dealer puts 2 of 4,5,or 6 in his crib. The first 2 boxes remain the same: 46 objects, 10 distinct ones. Now, though, "the number of objects picked" box becomes 2(because dealer puts 2 cards away).

And the "number of objects picked amongst those distinct" box also becomes 2 - we want both cards to be 4,5 or 6.

Running this second calculation we get 1 chance in 23 of this- that's 2/23.

The overall probability of getting that 24pt crib, then, is 2/9 multiplied by 1/23. Using the keyboard calculator for that, we get 0.966%. That's a smidge less than 1%. So 99% of the time that 24-pt crib won't happen. 99 times out 100 that 24pt crib doesn't happen. Meanwhile, you get better returns in most other situations with A-A-3-3 keep. So, I don't fear that 24pt crib possibility.

Those here who are not put off by this type of calculation may find this post, and that website interesting.

Have a great day!

   

Sunday 3:55 PM

Choosing offense when looking at the pegs, when looking at these six cards, and once seeing the starter card. need to get all I can. Lead the 3C, take any pegs offered. Might as well leave "fake flush" option open although don't intend to split the aces. This combination has the greater hand score potential a A, 2, 3, 8, 10, J, Q, or K score 8 points or more.