April 30, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by James500
66-70*  ?
31%
25%
23%
15%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 215
james500
2842 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 3:36 AM
A two point reduction in pre-cut points when compared to some of the other options, but I reckon the net values will be close.
2 lead.
JQT
3069 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Friday 3:45 AM
Our Opponent is already Dealer at the Third Street 'par' hole, but that preposition "at" might hold some significance here. Dealing from atop any 'par' hole only means that 'average' hand scoring and pegging shall put a player at the Finish Line at around a 50% proposition. Thus we have our "prepositions" and our "propositions" at work today.

Of course, our REAL problem is not Dealer's position, but our own *relative* position! We are in awful shape, behind by nearly a full 'cycle' as we have yet to reach the aforementioned 'par' hole. The good news, if we want to s-t-r-e-t-c-h the truth and call it that, is that we should surpass Hole 70 by a good margin by completion of this deal. But our desire would be to soon reach the NEXT 'par' hole as opposed to the current one, which is 'over the hill and far away.'

This means we want to get going, without a doubt: but it also means that 'spiking' the Dealer's Crib is vital if we wish to have any hope of turning the tables today. Let's look at our options.

We could retain the FLUSH, or we could Toss (A 7), Toss (7 K), or we could Toss (T K). That last idea only leaves us with Two Points, and any 4 Card Cut would find us as Next Dealer still shy of Hole 70, a place we might call "Skunktown." If it were not for this danger, I would gladly Toss (T K) here.

I am not as willing to stick a 5 Card into the Enemy Crib here as I am inclined to Toss (A 7) or Toss (7 K). And only the former leaves us with Four Points to reach Hole 70 with certainty, so that's what I shall do. It's still tempting however to unload that Toss (T K) "boat anchor" over the board, and I think it's also a very good choice.

After the dreaded 6 Card Cut (sadly, a Cut that often 'lights up' many Cribs) let's lead our Ten Card.
dec
5237 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 3:53 AM
Positions. Who has next deal ? Ace lead. dec
mrob2199
645 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 4:02 AM
This hand improves with any cut other than a 4-it’s well disguised for pegging value and we discard the ultra defensive K-10-with the fortuitous cut we should be around 75 and hopefully keep the dealer no more than 85
zeke76
915 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Friday 5:11 AM
Of course we cut a 6
scottcrib
563 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Friday 5:55 AM
Max defense from me at this position and with hopes of not cutting a 4 or a 5.
Eolus619
333 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Friday 6:02 AM
The Pegs...66-70*...76*-86...92-96*...102*-112....I am 30 points away from 96 & a very small chance to deal 1st from 96+..lousy place to be @ this stage ...all this says play defense for this hand & slow the game down ..12/13 ranks improves this keep
Gougie00
4624 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 6:30 AM
Either A-K or 10-K. I like the 5-7 together for pegging.
MiketheExpert
34 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Friday 7:05 AM
Unfortunate hand in this position. You are already behind CPZ, and this hand will not help you get there. In that case, you need to try and hold your opponent back as much as possible to try and gain some time. I will throw the balking cards 10 K into the opponent. I'm sacrificing 2 points to my starting hand, but there are plenty more cuts to improve. In fact only the 4 will fail to improve your hand. Nice 6 cut improves your hand by 5 points. I'll lead the 7 and try and nab a few pegging points during the play.
mfetchCT425
834 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 7:49 AM
Going to try and slow dealer down with the 10-K defensive toss. I believe this toss is ranked #1 for zero cribs for opponent. Every cut helps this hold except a 4. I like the ace lead here to try and camouflage the hand.
Jazzselke
1784 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Friday 7:50 AM
Agree with the consensus A257. We're not getting to Hole 96 here so let's try to hold dealer from getting there 2 hands from now.
SallyAnn3
334 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Friday 9:09 AM
Ditto...balk them, keep peggers, 2 points..oh well.
jmath714
917 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Friday 9:25 AM
I like the A lead from this spot, everyone seems to have covered why to hold this as is. Assuming we have this 7 point hand, I won’t be real interested in trading points.
JCM
573 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Friday 9:51 AM
I opted to balk the crib with a K-10 discard and go for the pegging cards. Maybe next hand I can make more forward progress.

Ras - I really liked that detailed description you posted yesterday about your 1000-game series against Cribbage Prof. The stats you provided are similar to mine - except yours are against Cribbage Prof - mine are against live players at Cribbage JD.

In particular I wish to ask you about pegging. You averaged about 3.5(as dealer) and 2.2(as pone). That makes an average of (3.5+2.2)/2 = 2.85 pegs over all games, doesn't it? Cribbage JD records my overall average as 2.74 - but I've played over 8,000 games there and the 2.74 figure reflects all those games. I believe(hope?) I'm pegging better now than I was at the start.

Anyway, my question is: Can you tell me what your pegging stats are against live players(instead of against Cribbage Prof)? It would serve as better basis of comparison for me.

Many thanks in advance!
dgergens
829 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Friday 10:54 AM
I'm more willing to risk the A,2 than the 7 the dealer. Game is close with us a little behind. Seems like we must do way better than average or hold opponent to way less than average or a little of both. A little of both is my objective here.
dgergens
829 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Friday 10:56 AM
willing to risk the A,2 more than the 7 to the dealer. Need some covfefe.
Ras2829
4089 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 11:16 AM
Looking at the pegs and these six cards it's got to be a defense strategy to include the pegging. Dealer is in 3rd street CPZ (69-73) and I need three points to get there. Slowing dealer down is best thing can do right now. In hands that score four points or less, it is important to discard low-scoring combos. In such, look for 10-K, 9-K, 9-Q, 6-K, etc. You'll be surprised how often they are available if you have trained your eye to look for them. Holding A-2-5-7 here wins by a wide margin in combined value (about one full point) because of the high incidence of 0-2 cribs at 45.494%. After seeing the starter card and knowing that n/d has 7 points, will lead that lone Ace, plan to dump the lone five on next card down. That will leave n/d quite a bit of air between the 2-7 and will break those dependent on what dealer is showing on the table. Like the 6 starter card and does not seem to be of any benefit to the 10-K toss.
Coeurdelion
4539 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 3:39 PM
I think the flush is a red herring. I believe it's between 2-5-10-K (A-7), A-5-10-K (2-7), 5-7-10-K (A-2) and perhaps a Defensive A-2-5-7 (10-K):

2-5-10-K: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.89) = -¾pt

A-5-10-K: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.97) = -1pt

5-7-10-K: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = -1pt

A-2-5-7: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = -2pts

Potential:

2-5-10-K: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 8888 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/10pts with 3333, 555, 101010, KKK = 13 cuts.

A-5-10-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 9999 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/10pts with 4444, 555, 101010, KKK = 13 cuts.

5-7-10-K: Improves with 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/10pts with 555, 6666, 101010, KKK = 13 cuts.

A-2-5-7: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 14xX = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3%s up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 = 24 cuts

Position:

Opponent is at 3rd street positional hole already while we're 20pts short of where we would like to be. On average we should be at 76pts for our next deal so I think we need to hold Dealer back as much as possible so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think A-2-5-7 peg best as it has 3 low cards and a middle card.

Summary:

The starting value for all these hands is very close particularly if you look at Schell's figures for expected crib except for A-2-5-7. However A-2-5-7 has many more cuts for improvement and 24 cuts for 6-8pts. 5-7-10-K has 4 more cuts for improvement than the other two hands but 13 cuts for 7-10pts compared to 13 cuts for 8/10pts. I think A-2-5-7 will peg best and also has the best potential. So I'll throw the 10-K.
HalscribCLX
4285 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 3:55 PM
At 66-70* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %____W5 %
A-2-5-7____5.17+2.07+(-3.82)=3.42____25.3____36.7
5-7-10-K___6.00+1.50+(-4.84)=2.66____25.7____35.1
2-5-10-K___5.91+1.35+(-4.64)=2.62____25.1____36.0
A-5-10-K___5.91+1.46+(-4.84)=5.53____24.5____34.2

Offense______L4 %____L5 %
A-2-5-7_______44.0____49.7
5-7-10-K______47.0____51.8
2-5-10-K______44.8____50.6
A-5-10-K______46.6____52.9

A-2-5-7 is best for expected averages by 0.76pt and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 10-K to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead the 2 and play a Safe strategy:

Defense____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
2________________________(-2.13)
A________________________(-2.19)
7________________________(-2.64)
5________________________(-2.95)