April 30, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by James500
66-70*  ?
31%
25%
23%
15%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 215
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 3:36 AM
A two point reduction in pre-cut points when compared to some of the other options, but I reckon the net values will be close.
2 lead.
Eolus619 says: Hello James...good board position puzzle today.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:45 AM
Our Opponent is already Dealer at the Third Street 'par' hole, but that preposition "at" might hold some significance here. Dealing from atop any 'par' hole only means that 'average' hand scoring and pegging shall put a player at the Finish Line at around a 50% proposition. Thus we have our "prepositions" and our "propositions" at work today.

Of course, our REAL problem is not Dealer's position, but our own *relative* position! We are in awful shape, behind by nearly a full 'cycle' as we have yet to reach the aforementioned 'par' hole. The good news, if we want to s-t-r-e-t-c-h the truth and call it that, is that we should surpass Hole 70 by a good margin by completion of this deal. But our desire would be to soon reach the NEXT 'par' hole as opposed to the current one, which is 'over the hill and far away.'

This means we want to get going, without a doubt: but it also means that 'spiking' the Dealer's Crib is vital if we wish to have any hope of turning the tables today. Let's look at our options.

We could retain the FLUSH, or we could Toss (A 7), Toss (7 K), or we could Toss (T K). That last idea only leaves us with Two Points, and any 4 Card Cut would find us as Next Dealer still shy of Hole 70, a place we might call "Skunktown." If it were not for this danger, I would gladly Toss (T K) here.

I am not as willing to stick a 5 Card into the Enemy Crib here as I am inclined to Toss (A 7) or Toss (7 K). And only the former leaves us with Four Points to reach Hole 70 with certainty, so that's what I shall do. It's still tempting however to unload that Toss (T K) "boat anchor" over the board, and I think it's also a very good choice.

After the dreaded 6 Card Cut (sadly, a Cut that often 'lights up' many Cribs) let's lead our Ten Card.
HfxKen says: Not only is the par hole " over the hill(s) and far away", that 6 cut is a Heartbreaker "
JQT says: Yes, a 6 Card Cut is rather unfortunate, but it's punishment that is a' propos for sending our 7 Card over the board! I believe I broke one of the Cardinal Rules here that I have often touted, and that is: The best time to DEFEND is when we are Pone! Still, the puzzle begs to fool us, because after Toss (T K), we might fall 'short' of reaching Hole 70 (which is very undesirable), and/or the Dealer might *still* obtain a decent Crib, after say Toss (A 4), or after discarding a 5 Card. In essence, Toss (T K) does contain some element of inherent risk, a risk that can sometimes exceed that of Toss (6 K) or Toss (9 Q); and, that frequent 'duplicitous nature' of Toss (T K) makes this a good puzzle. In hindsight, after the 6 Card Cut, we ask ourselves, "What were we thinking? We had Toss (T K)! Duh!" But if the Cut Card had been a Ten Card "T" and if Dealer had discarded Toss (A 4), we might have had our decision to Toss (A 7) reinforced. But, I believe that Toss (T K) will reward us better in the long run, and so . . . consider me having been fooled!
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:53 AM
Positions. Who has next deal ? Ace lead. dec
mrob2199
1436 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 4:02 AM
This hand improves with any cut other than a 4-it’s well disguised for pegging value and we discard the ultra defensive K-10-with the fortuitous cut we should be around 75 and hopefully keep the dealer no more than 85
zeke76
1397 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Friday 5:11 AM
Of course we cut a 6
scottcrib
1637 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Friday 5:55 AM
Max defense from me at this position and with hopes of not cutting a 4 or a 5.
Eolus619
1343 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Friday 6:02 AM
The Pegs...66-70*...76*-86...92-96*...102*-112....I am 30 points away from 96 & a very small chance to deal 1st from 96+..lousy place to be @ this stage ...all this says play defense for this hand & slow the game down ..12/13 ranks improves this keep
Eolus619 says: btw...with a six cut only a pair of fives or a five combined with a four , six , nine or a ten value card will now improve the crib past four ..so 4 or less in the crib just might happen.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 6:30 AM
Either A-K or 10-K. I like the 5-7 together for pegging.
MiketheExpert
1123 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Friday 7:05 AM
Unfortunate hand in this position. You are already behind CPZ, and this hand will not help you get there. In that case, you need to try and hold your opponent back as much as possible to try and gain some time. I will throw the balking cards 10 K into the opponent. I'm sacrificing 2 points to my starting hand, but there are plenty more cuts to improve. In fact only the 4 will fail to improve your hand. Nice 6 cut improves your hand by 5 points. I'll lead the 7 and try and nab a few pegging points during the play.
mfetchCT425
1400 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 7:49 AM
Going to try and slow dealer down with the 10-K defensive toss. I believe this toss is ranked #1 for zero cribs for opponent. Every cut helps this hold except a 4. I like the ace lead here to try and camouflage the hand.
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Friday 7:50 AM
Agree with the consensus A257. We're not getting to Hole 96 here so let's try to hold dealer from getting there 2 hands from now.
travelingman2019 says: Agree Dan.....I chose the second one, but after looking deeper into the top hand and toss, makes more sense.....shows you MUST take your time especially in a close match.......jumped the gun a little but this is where you learn.......
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Friday 9:09 AM
Ditto...balk them, keep peggers, 2 points..oh well.
jmath714
1299 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Friday 9:25 AM
I like the A lead from this spot, everyone seems to have covered why to hold this as is. Assuming we have this 7 point hand, I won’t be real interested in trading points.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Friday 9:51 AM
I opted to balk the crib with a K-10 discard and go for the pegging cards. Maybe next hand I can make more forward progress.

Ras - I really liked that detailed description you posted yesterday about your 1000-game series against Cribbage Prof. The stats you provided are similar to mine - except yours are against Cribbage Prof - mine are against live players at Cribbage JD.

In particular I wish to ask you about pegging. You averaged about 3.5(as dealer) and 2.2(as pone). That makes an average of (3.5+2.2)/2 = 2.85 pegs over all games, doesn't it? Cribbage JD records my overall average as 2.74 - but I've played over 8,000 games there and the 2.74 figure reflects all those games. I believe(hope?) I'm pegging better now than I was at the start.

Anyway, my question is: Can you tell me what your pegging stats are against live players(instead of against Cribbage Prof)? It would serve as better basis of comparison for me.

Many thanks in advance!
JQT says: It's important to look at how these statistics are being gathered, because in Cribbage, the Final Deal is typically (and should be) ignored, or at least some of its data are thrown out and not taken into consideration. And this only makes sense, since if we are at . . . let's say we're Pone at (117-112*), it makes little sense to 'average in' the meaningless Crib that will no doubt be statistically insignificant (maybe we tossed a PAIR of 5 Cards because it does not matter, etc.). Some programs do this automatically (Final Deal data is NOT compiled) and others do it selectively (pegging might still be tallied, although this could skew the data slightly). Somewhat relevant to this topic, there is an interesting discussion (along with some very interesting graphs and charts) in a recent video on the Numberphile Site "The Math of Being a Pig" and it has a good explanation about Optimal Play in a Probabilistic Game: https://youtu.be/ULhRLGzoXQ0
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Friday 10:54 AM
I'm more willing to risk the A,2 than the 7 the dealer. Game is close with us a little behind. Seems like we must do way better than average or hold opponent to way less than average or a little of both. A little of both is my objective here.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Friday 10:56 AM
willing to risk the A,2 more than the 7 to the dealer. Need some covfefe.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 11:16 AM
Looking at the pegs and these six cards it's got to be a defense strategy to include the pegging. Dealer is in 3rd street CPZ (69-73) and I need three points to get there. Slowing dealer down is best thing can do right now. In hands that score four points or less, it is important to discard low-scoring combos. In such, look for 10-K, 9-K, 9-Q, 6-K, etc. You'll be surprised how often they are available if you have trained your eye to look for them. Holding A-2-5-7 here wins by a wide margin in combined value (about one full point) because of the high incidence of 0-2 cribs at 45.494%. After seeing the starter card and knowing that n/d has 7 points, will lead that lone Ace, plan to dump the lone five on next card down. That will leave n/d quite a bit of air between the 2-7 and will break those dependent on what dealer is showing on the table. Like the 6 starter card and does not seem to be of any benefit to the 10-K toss.
Ras2829 says: Note that adhering to a defense strategy, discard the 10-K and then we follow through with that by looking at the most dangerous cards in pegging sequence (lone Ace and lone five) and we get rid of those early in the pegging game. N/D plays to avoid pegs; dealer at hole 70 is likely to be all out offense to increase advantage. That's difficult for dealer if n/d is uncooperative.
Ras2829 says: Only a four starter card adds no value to the A-2-5-7. A, 2, 4, and 9 add no value to 5-7-10-K.
Ras2829 says: Remember that 10-Q and Q-K are nearly as good as the 10-K in producing small cribs since dealer is unable to dump a five to crib. Even though dealer is constantly thinking of discarding a five spot, it is not possible in most cases. For those of you who play 9 games of crib in a club, can you remember how many times you discarded a five spot? Probably about 4 times in 9 games? Those fives work with A-9, 2-8, 3-4 3-7, 4-6, other fives, 6-7 and all those X-pointers. As a result Q-K scores 0-2 42.431% and 10-Q does so at a 40.972% clip.
MiketheExpert says: Ras, Mike here, I read your stats with Cribbage Prof the other day, it is rather intriguing. I just recently joined E-Cribbage online, and I was curious to know which engine Hal_1800 is based on :) Since early April (almost 1 month) most of my online games have been played against him My current record stands at 251-213 against HAL_1800 for a 54.1% winning % with 36 skunk wins for and 32 skunk losses against. Haven't quite yet reached the 500-game plateau, and I haven't kept track of the number of games of which player gets the first deal, but I generally play matches where the loser of game gets first crib in the next, so I imagine it's decently close to 50/50. I'd consider this in "almost" the statistically significant range, but I wouldn't want to say firmly so until maybe my first 1,000 games. Also, I check out the lifetime records of both HAL_1800 and HAL_1700, and it seems like HAL_1700 performs substantially better over life, and don't know if this has to do with the quality of the players who generally select to play each individual opponent.....If you have any insights here and comparision against the Cribbage Prof which sounds like the latest effort, I'd love to know! Thanks!
Ras2829 says: H MiketheExpert: Had a better winning percentage against Hal in either form (sometimes as high as 54% over 1,000 games. Winning percentage with Cribbage Prof generally has been 51-52%. Played them all at maximum level of difficulty. Don't know any of the technical parameters as to differences that might exist between the Hal versions and the Cribbage Prof. Believe JQT was involved with Hal Mueller in a technical sense in the development of the programs and believe JQT did much of the beta testing (whatever that is). You might want to address him on such matters.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 3:39 PM
I think the flush is a red herring. I believe it's between 2-5-10-K (A-7), A-5-10-K (2-7), 5-7-10-K (A-2) and perhaps a Defensive A-2-5-7 (10-K):

2-5-10-K: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.89) = -¾pt

A-5-10-K: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.97) = -1pt

5-7-10-K: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = -1pt

A-2-5-7: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = -2pts

Potential:

2-5-10-K: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 8888 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/10pts with 3333, 555, 101010, KKK = 13 cuts.

A-5-10-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 9999 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/10pts with 4444, 555, 101010, KKK = 13 cuts.

5-7-10-K: Improves with 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/10pts with 555, 6666, 101010, KKK = 13 cuts.

A-2-5-7: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 14xX = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3%s up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 = 24 cuts

Position:

Opponent is at 3rd street positional hole already while we're 20pts short of where we would like to be. On average we should be at 76pts for our next deal so I think we need to hold Dealer back as much as possible so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think A-2-5-7 peg best as it has 3 low cards and a middle card.

Summary:

The starting value for all these hands is very close particularly if you look at Schell's figures for expected crib except for A-2-5-7. However A-2-5-7 has many more cuts for improvement and 24 cuts for 6-8pts. 5-7-10-K has 4 more cuts for improvement than the other two hands but 13 cuts for 7-10pts compared to 13 cuts for 8/10pts. I think A-2-5-7 will peg best and also has the best potential. So I'll throw the 10-K.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:55 PM
At 66-70* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %____W5 %
A-2-5-7____5.17+2.07+(-3.82)=3.42____25.3____36.7
5-7-10-K___6.00+1.50+(-4.84)=2.66____25.7____35.1
2-5-10-K___5.91+1.35+(-4.64)=2.62____25.1____36.0
A-5-10-K___5.91+1.46+(-4.84)=5.53____24.5____34.2

Offense______L4 %____L5 %
A-2-5-7_______44.0____49.7
5-7-10-K______47.0____51.8
2-5-10-K______44.8____50.6
A-5-10-K______46.6____52.9

A-2-5-7 is best for expected averages by 0.76pt and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 10-K to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead the 2 and play a Safe strategy:

Defense____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
2________________________(-2.13)
A________________________(-2.19)
7________________________(-2.64)
5________________________(-2.95)