May 1, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by fentesk
101-95*  ?
63%
25%
4%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 214
JQT
3069 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Saturday 3:13 AM
The Dealer once again is right at 'par' and today it's serious, as we're on Fourth Street. Let's throw a wrench into the Dealer's 'Dog' of a Crib and give away the Ol' Canine, or Toss (9 K).

After the very nice 7 Card Cut, we'll lead a 4 Card from our PEAR (who remembers that old Fruit Basket?!).
james500
2842 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 3:17 AM
Unlikely to score 20 points in this hand but *should* be able to in two hands, so long so as I'm able prevent Dealer getting 26 over those same two deals.

4 lead from the 4A combo, rather than the 484 sixteen.
dec
5237 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:18 AM
Positions. Who has the deal this time. How close could we be if we get a cut and peg some ? Defense, four lead. dec
mrob2199
645 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 4:54 AM
Very good puzzle today Fen-it’s 100 percent defense with these cards-I slightly prefer the A-k discard while holding two fours but K9 is also a very viable choice as well
glmccuskey
3389 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Saturday 5:02 AM
No cut can get me close to out. I’ll throw the worst two to dealers crib, lead a four, dump the ace ASAP and peg away fro any danger.
Gougie00
4624 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 5:10 AM
Either A-K or 9-K. More important to stifle the crib and give myself a chance next deal. Lead the 4.
mfetchCT425
834 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 5:35 AM
We are already in great position. Need to balk opponent’s crib here. Like the 9-K toss slightly more than the A-K.
Eolus619
333 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Saturday 6:03 AM
Ras’s evidence says dealer has 80% chance to earn 12 points..so let’s try to play defense & hold dealer to 107. Tossing 8-9 to dealer averages six..not a good idea to provide 1/2 of the 12 imo. Even with a balk toss of 9-K ,keep A-4-4-8 gets help from 11/13 ranks. I need 20 points in two hands. If I can get to 109 this hand ,then I have 80-% chance of earning the needed 12 to go out next deal. As a dear friend of mine would say..”not a hard step for a good stepper”
Jazzselke
1784 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Saturday 6:54 AM
K9 first or second best defensive throw. Personally I prefer K10 buth of course that is not available today. The downside of the K9 is the popularity of the 78 toss, which is why I favor K10. Despite the fact that there are those 2 20 cribs I have given up discarding K10 !?!.
jmudge
179 votes

Joined: July 2020

   
Saturday 9:54 AM
All of your good advice is finally rubbing off on me!
Ras2829
4089 votes

Joined: November 2008

Saturday 9:55 AM
Regarding the puzzle of yesterday wanted to add a few related comments. Yesterday as non-dealer the six cards were A-2-5-7-10-K. In other similar cases the four lower cards of pegging value might be A-3-4-7 or A-3-5-6 with two cards of ten value. In any of these cases, if holding four points you decrease n/d potential pegging and increase the crib score of dealer. If the X-pointers are not pairs or include a Jack, discard the two X-pointers. Combined value will exceed that if n/d had started with 4 points. Also note that of these A-3-5-6 is improved by any cut. Only a four spot on the deck misses A-2-5-7, and a cut of 6 or 9 adds noting to A-3-4-7. If you are watching for these, they are frequently available in small scoring hands. Headed for town. More later.
joekayak
1362 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Saturday 10:20 AM
Panel unanimous. Popular vote for K-4-4-Ace.

Andy (muesli64)
1954 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Saturday 11:16 AM
No need to give it away. Give him 8-9 and oppo likely ends up on 112 as pone.
Ras2829
4089 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 2:20 PM
Have queried this hand or similar in similar position over the years on Halscrib, REX, and Cribbage Prof. Defense is recommended and the 8-9 discard as combined value so favors the A-4-4-K. Having said that will follow the oft stated advice of JQT of insuring against an adverse starter card. Will insure against the cut of the 7 by holding A-4-4-8. If I were to hit the A-4-4-K for the maximum of 12 points would be at hole 113. That's not good enough for me to risk the 8-9 discard. If as n/d had a potential hand of 16 or more, would discard 8-9 as that would put me at hole 117 or better with dealer pegging advantage on upcoming deal. Conversely, the 8-9 scores 0-2 points 30.3%. Will lead a four spot and play off unless dealer response is a X-pointer. Ideal time to drop that lone Ace and score two points doing so. Seems like my winning percentages should increase if minimizing dealer movement down the board on this hand. What will the cribbot do? Don't think HalscribCLX will make this choice. Have to wait and see how that unfolds.
dgergens
829 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Saturday 3:00 PM
Too close to the end to take a chance gifting dealer with an 8,9.
Coeurdelion
4539 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 8:24 PM
I think it's between A-4-4-K (8-9) and A-4-4-8 (9-K):

A-4-4-K: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = +¼pt

A-4-4-8: 2pts - 3pts (Schell: 3.06) = -1pt

Potential:

A-4-4-K: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 6666, 7777 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 69.6% up to 10/12pts with AAA, 44 + 15xXs = 20 cuts.

A-4-4-8: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 44, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 84.8% up to 6pts with 2222, 3333, 44, 7777 + 15xXs = 29 cuts.

Position:

In this position I think it's most important to keep Dealer short so they don't score out nest deal as Pone. Provided we do this we should hold enough as next Dealer. Therefore regardless of starting values I think it's most important to play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think both hands will peg well.

Summary:

A-4-4-8 starts with 1½pts fewer than A-4-4-K but it has 29 cuts for 6pts and should peg well. The 9-K discard is the lowest scoring so hopefully will put us in a position to score out as Dealer next time.
HalscribCLX
4285 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 8:29 PM
At 106-95* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

Defense_____W1 %____W2 %____L1 %____L2 %
A-4-4-K_____0.1_____45.5____5.6_____44.7
A-4-4-8_____0.0_____45.3____1.6_____37.3
A-4-4-9_____0.0_____45.3____1.7_____37.1

After the 7 cut I'll lead a 4 and play Defense:

Lead_______Dealer's Pegging Pts.
4___________________(-1.85)
A___________________(-2.02)
8___________________(-2.66)