JQT says: Dealer Control in Cribbage: The Dealer in Cribbage controls much of the game, so as Pone today, the amount of influence that we can exert, while perhaps not equal, is crucial. When I am the Dealer, I like to think that I have a CHANCE to win *any* game as long as I am Dealer on Fourth Street! Study a few thousands of games, and you'll see that a Dealer can indeed win more and more games as the starting position veers point-by-point from Hole 90 up until Hole 96, at which point the Win Rate shall start to exceed 50%. But the chance to win is *always* greater than 10% from about Hole 90 or thereabouts, especially as long as Pone has NOT yet reached Hole 110. But a Dealer *anywhere* on Fourth Street can win a game regardless of where Pone begins the deal! When the Dealer is 'shy' of Hole 96, now it is often us, as Pone, who has that 50% (or greater) chance of becoming the Next Dealer posing the same or greater threat to our Opponent! Therefore, if we are Pone and we are *already* on Fourth Street, we are virtually assured of becoming the Dealer beyond Hole 96, as long as we can survive and endure the "Three Counts" of our Opponent (Current Pegging and Hand, and Crib, and Pegging and Hand as Next Non-Dealer). Those "Three Counts" have been determined to be about Twenty-Six Points (Twenty-Six Theory), an average of around Sixteen Points scored as the Dealer, and then about another Ten Points scored as Next Non-Dealer. Also, the Dealer has yet another "reach" of an average of about 3.5 Points obtained during the Pegging, which gets scored BEFORE Pone gets to tally the First Hand Show. This factor may be very significant in this game, because if the current Dealer gets beyond around Hole 110 at the completion of this deal, we might still be able to 'clinch' victory as Next Dealer, as long as we can get to about Hole 116 or Hole 117 by the completion of this deal. Taking all of this into account, we have three ways to win this game: We could pick up a great Hand and get a great Cut and score Twenty Points as Pone; we might get *close enough* (say about Hole 117) to peg out as Next Dealer; or, we might use our entire "Three Counts" which comprise the next two deals, first as Dealer and then as Pone. Once we see our cards, it's easy to rule out the first of these three options. Notice that that last of the three options is precisely the current (and difficult!) challenge for our Opponent who is now the Dealer! Thus, we likely need to do what I have often dubbed as "turn the tables" on our Opponent, and "spike" the Crib and peg defensively, and attempt to maximize the portion of control that we *do have* over our Opponent during this deal. We may easily find ourselves in a better Relative Position that is currently held by our Opponent, as long as we do TWO things: we wish to prevent the Dealer from obtaining the "average" (or better than average) scoring via our defensive Pegging and via the Discard during this deal, and; while we would *love* to reach Hole 116 or Hole 117, we mostly MUST seek to become the Next Dealer at or beyond Hole 96. And lo and behold: We are already at Hole 101! Therefore, if we defend well (and if our Opponent does not "stumble" onto a Double Run or some other such "Barn Burner" of a Hand and/or Crib), the fact is, we probably don't have to score *any points at all* during this deal! Now, a LOT of *bad things* can happen in Cribbage while we extend this level of patience, but in many Endgame Battles in Cribbage, PATIENCE is our best ally. The arrangement we were dealt here already rules out any hope we may have of winning during this deal: but if we DEFEND WELL, we still may have those other two options available to us in order to WIN this game. Those who play a more aggressive game may attempt to retain the best Hand, which, along with the Cut Card and our Pegging, may allow us to attempt to peg out as Next Dealer; those players who apply PATIENCE however will discard defensively and try that last of the three options, while leaving the door slightly open for the second option as well, depending on the Cut and the Pegging. It's also important to never stop observing: a LOT of players will see the Cut and just assume the outcome of the game is now certain. But even if we did have a Hand in which the Cut Card puts us out, then (especially in a multi-game series or during a tournament) we are *still* always and forever in a battle to minimize Dealer Pegging and increase our Spread Points. Conversely, if we see that the Cut Card is a 'dud' for us, and (after seeing a few of Dealer's Cards during the Pegging) maybe we realize that a loss is certain, now we are *still* in a battle, only in this case, we should peg as much as possible to decrease those same Spread Points our Opponent is certain to collect when we lose. - j q t -