May 2, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
56*-55  ?
31%
26%
18%
6%
6%
5%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 216
JQT
3069 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 3:01 AM
Ahead and Dealing, and so we can do as we please! Okay, just kidding; not so fast. Let's examine both the position and the cards. Only then, we'll do as we please.

We can hold Four Points as the Dealer today after either Toss (2 5) or Toss (A 4), and generally I prefer a 5 Card with *anything* in the Crib to an Ace and a 4 Card. The Ace-4 Card duo is often confused with Deuce-Trey, the latter of which is vastly superior.

We could also split up the scoring and Toss (5 X), and I would happily stow a Jack into my Crib alongside a 5 Card and not feel that I have done wrong. But given our "lazy" Second Street position, why not retain the Jack and Queen together in our Hand?

While an Ace or Deuce or even a 9 Card are somewhat like oil-and-vinegar when mixed with a 5 Card, we have to perform a fair comparison, and frankly, I believe that a 5 Card by itself is equal to Toss (A 4) in its entirety! Thus, we get that Deuce into our Crib "for free." And Toss (2 5) is far more likely to 'catch' that once-in-a-while Four-Card RUN than Toss (A 4), which requires a precious Deuce-Trey combo.

Not only will Toss (2 5) almost always out-perform Toss (A 4) in our Crib, but in addition, the Ace and the 4 Card will oftentimes peg as well or better during the pegging. In fact, I would "stoop" to Toss (5 J) before I would Toss (A 4), but hey, that's just me boasting into the waning moonlight. Others may Toss (A 4) or Toss (5 X) today, and do as well or better, and I am always willing to learn.

After the delightful Ace Cut (too bad it wasn't a Diamond Suit), let's peg as best we can. I will PAIR a Jack or Queen Lead, since we have the Ace backing us up on the rebound; I would also PAIR an Ace Lead, since an Ace was Cut, but I will Play OFF of a 4 Card Lead and respond with the Queen, hoping to later "nail" another 4 Card played by Pone! The act of both scoring Two Points, while denying your Opponent Six Points, has enormous psychological value.
james500
2842 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 3:14 AM
2-5 from me also.
XA eleven may be useful during the pegging.
wasa
1957 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Sunday 4:25 AM
Always like a 5 to my crib
dec
5237 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 4:54 AM
Jack,2,3,4,5 combination in discards and cut would be nice. Defensive eleven use in the pegging. dec
Gougie00
4624 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 5:47 AM
Not sure if there really is a right answer. 2-5 for me as well. If there was a flush then I would have went that way.

Consistent 70 degree days here in northern Massachusetts. Looks like its really spring after a prolonged winter.
Eolus619
333 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Sunday 5:52 AM
Ras rates 2-5 higher than A-4...dealer discard to own crib

http://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen6.asp

yesterday..If you missed JQT’s end game tutorial , posted under my comments, I suggest you give it a read. Ras also had some very valuable insight posted later in the day & JQT added some comments under Ras also.
jmath714
917 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Sunday 6:35 AM
Interested in learning if I’m wrong today. The logic I was taught with this hand, is 5-2 and 4-A are very similar to your own crib, but 2-5 in your hand is easier to peg with, and more importantly in this spot, easier to not get pegged on.
MiketheExpert
34 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Sunday 6:52 AM
Unless I need a huge score, in most board positions I'm almost always partial to throwing 2 5 into my own crib here. I can control the pegging game better, and has many cuts to improve. There will be a few circumstances in which A 4 of A 2 if you desperate for a huge score may have to be. With our A cut, it looks like 2 5 wins the day :)
SallyAnn3
334 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Sunday 8:06 AM
Am way off today . I put the real 5 in my crib, along with a Jack--figuring they may toss me balking faces, then I'd have the low peggers in hand.
Ras2829
4089 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 9:31 AM
If choosing an offense strategy to include the pegging, holding the 1-2-4-Q, discarding 5-J provides the most in combined value (pegs, hand, and crib scores) by about .2. With n/d needing 14 points for upcoming deal in 3rd street CPZ 69-73), seem s like offense would be the correct choice, although optimal (cautious offense) seems to fit as well. Win/loss % might point in another direction. Will defer to HalscribCLX on that. It's taken me 80 years of pegging to figure out the parts of the game I know. Don't think could get the win/loss % from any point on the board if I were to live another lifetime.
dgergens
829 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Sunday 11:34 AM
I discarded the Q instead of J because the same suit as 5. Otherwise, I would have discarded the J.
Jazzselke
1784 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 12:49 PM
Agree with Jason here. Until recently would throw 25. But now I like holding the 5 for a possible immediate 15, and not holding the lone ace. Guess I"m thinking more defense than Ras in this situation. Too conservative?
scottcrib
563 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Sunday 2:13 PM
Went with A-4 as that lone ace can get me in trouble as dealer.
joekayak
1362 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Sunday 2:24 PM
I'm a 5 in the crib guy.
Coeurdelion
4539 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 3:45 PM
I think it's between A-4-J-Q (2-5), 2-5-J-Q (A-4) and A-2-4-J (5-Q):

A-4-J-Q: 4pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.45) = 9½pts

2-5-J-Q: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

A-2-4-J: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 8½pts

Potential:

A-4-J-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/9/10pts with all cuts. Plus 12 diamomds for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

2-5-J-Q: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 8888 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10pts with 3333, 555 + 14xXs = 21 cuts. Plus 12 diamomds for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

A-2-4-J: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 444, 555, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 6/8pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 444, JJJ = 16 cuts. Plus 12 diamomds for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Position:

Pone needs 15pts to reach 3rd street positional hole while the average is 10pts. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think A-2-4-J will peg best with three small cards and a high card.

Summary:

A-4-J-Q is slightly best for starting value by ¼pt, although Schell's figures put them at almost equal. A-2-4-J starts 1pt lower but has more cuts for improvement and should peg best. However it does only have 16 cuts for 6/8pts compared to 23 cuts for 8-10pts for A-4-J-Q and 21 cuts for 8-10pts for 2-5-J-Q. So I'll throw the 2-5.
HalscribCLX
4285 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 3:47 PM
At 56*-55 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense____Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
A-4-J-Q_____6.70+(-1.93)+5.38=10.15____50.1____62.3
2-5-J-Q_____6.70+(-2.24)+5.21= 9.67____49.3____60.4
A-2-4-Q_____4.52+(-1.80)+6.78= 9.50____47.8____58.9
A-2-4-J_____4.78+(-1.85)+6.53= 9.46____48.8____59.5

Defense________L5 %____L6 %
A-4-J-Q_________29.8____19.5
2-5-J-Q_________31.6____21.3
A-2-4-Q_________32.5____22.8
A-2-4-J_________32.6____22.3

A-4-J-Q is best for expected averages by 0.48pt and is slightly best for Win %s and appreciably lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-5 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.