May 2, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
56*-55  ?
31%
26%
18%
6%
6%
5%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 216
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:01 AM
Ahead and Dealing, and so we can do as we please! Okay, just kidding; not so fast. Let's examine both the position and the cards. Only then, we'll do as we please.

We can hold Four Points as the Dealer today after either Toss (2 5) or Toss (A 4), and generally I prefer a 5 Card with *anything* in the Crib to an Ace and a 4 Card. The Ace-4 Card duo is often confused with Deuce-Trey, the latter of which is vastly superior.

We could also split up the scoring and Toss (5 X), and I would happily stow a Jack into my Crib alongside a 5 Card and not feel that I have done wrong. But given our "lazy" Second Street position, why not retain the Jack and Queen together in our Hand?

While an Ace or Deuce or even a 9 Card are somewhat like oil-and-vinegar when mixed with a 5 Card, we have to perform a fair comparison, and frankly, I believe that a 5 Card by itself is equal to Toss (A 4) in its entirety! Thus, we get that Deuce into our Crib "for free." And Toss (2 5) is far more likely to 'catch' that once-in-a-while Four-Card RUN than Toss (A 4), which requires a precious Deuce-Trey combo.

Not only will Toss (2 5) almost always out-perform Toss (A 4) in our Crib, but in addition, the Ace and the 4 Card will oftentimes peg as well or better during the pegging. In fact, I would "stoop" to Toss (5 J) before I would Toss (A 4), but hey, that's just me boasting into the waning moonlight. Others may Toss (A 4) or Toss (5 X) today, and do as well or better, and I am always willing to learn.

After the delightful Ace Cut (too bad it wasn't a Diamond Suit), let's peg as best we can. I will PAIR a Jack or Queen Lead, since we have the Ace backing us up on the rebound; I would also PAIR an Ace Lead, since an Ace was Cut, but I will Play OFF of a 4 Card Lead and respond with the Queen, hoping to later "nail" another 4 Card played by Pone! The act of both scoring Two Points, while denying your Opponent Six Points, has enormous psychological value.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 3:14 AM
2-5 from me also.
XA eleven may be useful during the pegging.
james500 says: https://www.amazon.co.uk/CRIBBAGE-Introduction-Organized-Cribbage-Novice/dp/1977237460/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1619958669&sr=8-2 This book has been recommended to me by the Amazon algorithm. Has anybody here read it? Maybe somebody even knows the author?
warquaker says: !
warquaker says: I have purchased this and a review will go up on amazon.co.uk shortly. I think it a must purchase. I have read Colvert, Chambers, Barlow and others. I am also familiar with RAS's work found free on the internet. This book brings original material in to the public realm.
dec says: The author's name is Norm Nikodym a life master ACC player from California. I'm sure Ras is probably familiar with him. dec
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Sunday 4:25 AM
Always like a 5 to my crib
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 4:54 AM
Jack,2,3,4,5 combination in discards and cut would be nice. Defensive eleven use in the pegging. dec
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:47 AM
Not sure if there really is a right answer. 2-5 for me as well. If there was a flush then I would have went that way.

Consistent 70 degree days here in northern Massachusetts. Looks like its really spring after a prolonged winter.
Eolus619
1343 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Sunday 5:52 AM
Ras rates 2-5 higher than A-4...dealer discard to own crib

http://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen6.asp

yesterday..If you missed JQT’s end game tutorial , posted under my comments, I suggest you give it a read. Ras also had some very valuable insight posted later in the day & JQT added some comments under Ras also.
jmath714
1299 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Sunday 6:35 AM
Interested in learning if I’m wrong today. The logic I was taught with this hand, is 5-2 and 4-A are very similar to your own crib, but 2-5 in your hand is easier to peg with, and more importantly in this spot, easier to not get pegged on.
UCCF says: That was my thought. In a situation where I'm feeling pretty decent about my position, I prefer not to hold a lone ace that could be turned into 7-8 points by a pone with a pair.
glmccuskey says: I agree with Jason and UCCF
MiketheExpert
1123 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Sunday 6:52 AM
Unless I need a huge score, in most board positions I'm almost always partial to throwing 2 5 into my own crib here. I can control the pegging game better, and has many cuts to improve. There will be a few circumstances in which A 4 of A 2 if you desperate for a huge score may have to be. With our A cut, it looks like 2 5 wins the day :)
MiketheExpert says: Just wanted to add...the one disadvantage I'd say keeping this is you might likely have to give up a few more pegging points..especially if pone leads a Q or J, in this situation I am going to pair it and let him score his 6, after which I'll play the A for 31. However this does not concern me with this score. If I needed to prevent pegging at all costs, the 2 5 J Q is a slightly better defensive holding than having lone A, so just be mindful of this.
Eolus619 says: hello...have you noticed when playing Hal on ecribbage that when playing 2/3 and checking the box loser gets next deal that after the game ..ecribbage reverts to low card drawn deals rather than alternating ..that started happening to me yesterday ..not sure why
MiketheExpert says: hi Eolus. Actually haven't really had a chance to get in and play on the site over the weekend, so I haven't noticed it :) If I get a chance later today, I will try it myself and see..
Eolus619 says: thx..to be clear ...after first game it reverts to low card drawn wins the deal ...not loser automatically gets to deal ..may be my version has developed a bug ..not sure
MiketheExpert says: I managed to get on for a couple of matches with Hal, and I did not experience that issue..i was recently asked to install a Java update (not from the site but my system), so don't know maybe if an upgrade would help restore it to normal?
Eolus619 says: thx Mike ..I will trouble shoot from here
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Sunday 8:06 AM
Am way off today . I put the real 5 in my crib, along with a Jack--figuring they may toss me balking faces, then I'd have the low peggers in hand.
Eolus619 says: you & Ras in sync...quite the quinella!!!!!!!!!!!
SallyAnn3 says: OMG and woooooooo hooooo!
glmccuskey says: The student has become the teacher.
SallyAnn3 says: hahaaha that'll be the day. A teacher for my career, but always a student here from all of you "big boys". Hope to see you live soon! Was going to Appleton, but had to cancel cuz Dave hurt his hip in a fall. Kenosha is next up :)
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 9:31 AM
If choosing an offense strategy to include the pegging, holding the 1-2-4-Q, discarding 5-J provides the most in combined value (pegs, hand, and crib scores) by about .2. With n/d needing 14 points for upcoming deal in 3rd street CPZ 69-73), seem s like offense would be the correct choice, although optimal (cautious offense) seems to fit as well. Win/loss % might point in another direction. Will defer to HalscribCLX on that. It's taken me 80 years of pegging to figure out the parts of the game I know. Don't think could get the win/loss % from any point on the board if I were to live another lifetime.
Ras2829 says: Of the 5-10 discards, 5-J is the only one to break 7 points to own crib. That does snot have much to do with the value of the Jack matching the suit of the starter card. The Jack could do that in the hand just as well. When n/d can't find that 10-K combination in the hand, the two X-pointers that go to dealer crib are most often 10-Q and Q-K, and the 5-J makes mighty fine crib out of those without any help on the deck. What a revelation, huh?
Eolus619 says: Classic Ras..either the A-4 or the 2-5 is the best answer until neither of them are...I suspect you & Jazz are in cahoots again!!!!!!!!!!
Ras2829 says: Sorry about the "snot" - not COVID related. Just lots of pollen in the air!
Eolus619 says: High noon Eastern...115 votes in...you and Sally are the only two to pick 5-J so far
Ras2829 says: Shouldn't have chimed in so quickly. Just now realized that I submitted this puzzle.
Ras2829 says: This is one of those puzzles where choice of strategy determines whether to discard A-4, 2-5, or 5-J. If choosing offense as I am, the 5-J gets the nod. If choosing defense to include pegging, the 2-5 discard has the edge by quite a bit, followed by the !-4 discard, and the 5-J choice drops to third place. Will defer to HalscribCLX for the exact figures. Am hopeful that the cribbot will show how this hand differs if playing offense or defense.
Ras2829 says: Appreciate all the fine discussion this day though most seem to have defense in mind as compared to my choice of offense. Had non-dealer been at hole 57-61, my choice would have matched that of HalscribCLX, A-4-J-Q and discard of 2-5.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Sunday 11:34 AM
I discarded the Q instead of J because the same suit as 5. Otherwise, I would have discarded the J.
dgergens says: Ras, I'm happy I was thinking along same lines as you. Reading you comment about J,5 points, how does it compare to Q,5 points, and does that make the chance of a crib flush irrelevant?
Ras2829 says: Hi dgergens: cards of teh same suit to a rib add .04 -.05 hundredths of a point since a crib flush occurs once in about 80. The average for 5-J to own crib is 7..088 (1,678) 3/91 and average for 5-Q is 6.593 (1,251) 7/91. Emphasize to own crib as they score even more on the other side of the board.
Ras2829 says: "teh" above should be "the; "rib" should be "crib", and "games" should follow 80. Problem is I follow 80 by 4!!!
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 12:49 PM
Agree with Jason here. Until recently would throw 25. But now I like holding the 5 for a possible immediate 15, and not holding the lone ace. Guess I"m thinking more defense than Ras in this situation. Too conservative?
scottcrib
1637 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Sunday 2:13 PM
Went with A-4 as that lone ace can get me in trouble as dealer.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 2:24 PM
I'm a 5 in the crib guy.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 3:45 PM
I think it's between A-4-J-Q (2-5), 2-5-J-Q (A-4) and A-2-4-J (5-Q):

A-4-J-Q: 4pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.45) = 9½pts

2-5-J-Q: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

A-2-4-J: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 8½pts

Potential:

A-4-J-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 555 + 14xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/9/10pts with all cuts. Plus 12 diamomds for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

2-5-J-Q: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 8888 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10pts with 3333, 555 + 14xXs = 21 cuts. Plus 12 diamomds for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

A-2-4-J: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 444, 555, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 6/8pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 444, JJJ = 16 cuts. Plus 12 diamomds for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Position:

Pone needs 15pts to reach 3rd street positional hole while the average is 10pts. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think A-2-4-J will peg best with three small cards and a high card.

Summary:

A-4-J-Q is slightly best for starting value by ¼pt, although Schell's figures put them at almost equal. A-2-4-J starts 1pt lower but has more cuts for improvement and should peg best. However it does only have 16 cuts for 6/8pts compared to 23 cuts for 8-10pts for A-4-J-Q and 21 cuts for 8-10pts for 2-5-J-Q. So I'll throw the 2-5.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:47 PM
At 56*-55 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense____Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
A-4-J-Q_____6.70+(-1.93)+5.38=10.15____50.1____62.3
2-5-J-Q_____6.70+(-2.24)+5.21= 9.67____49.3____60.4
A-2-4-Q_____4.52+(-1.80)+6.78= 9.50____47.8____58.9
A-2-4-J_____4.78+(-1.85)+6.53= 9.46____48.8____59.5

Defense________L5 %____L6 %
A-4-J-Q_________29.8____19.5
2-5-J-Q_________31.6____21.3
A-2-4-Q_________32.5____22.8
A-2-4-J_________32.6____22.3

A-4-J-Q is best for expected averages by 0.48pt and is slightly best for Win %s and appreciably lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-5 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.