May 4, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by jmath714
100-92*  ?
34%
34%
12%
5%
4%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 258
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:27 AM
We could roll the dice and try Toss (8 8), but I feel that Toss (6 9) with its weaker average might be more prudent.

The Jack Cut seems to help more than hurt, but we still need to watch our Opponent's movement, since they are the Dealer.

We should be able to take over control of this game, as long as the Dealer's Crib does not explode.

Our Next Deal with "Three Counts" to come makes this position hopeful, but as I said recently, any Dealer on Fourth Street must be respected as a legitimate threat.
cribbagepogo says: Are you sure? You left yourself with less options and gave away 2 points.
JQT says: I believe Toss (6 9) is a healthy compromise today, and it seems like a more predictable and manageable way to balance out this discard dilemma, because it's much safer than Toss (8 8), and while it does tend to average a bit more than Toss (8 9), it's only letting about a half of a point difference slip away. And I believe we can 'make up' that much and possibly more defensively during the pegging, since Toss (6 9) leaves us with Two PAIRS, a much less volatile pegging hand. Toss (6 9) is an interesting discard on BOTH sides of the board: When we are Dealer, it gets "lumped" way down the list as an "Also Ran" discard per RAS' excellent "Star Power" analysis. Over the board, it's interesting as well, and when we Toss (6 9) as Pone, it can sometimes be used to "limit the damage" when no other discard idea solves the problems of the position. Toss (6 9) does become unwieldy if we Cut or if Dealer discards a (666, 999) but since these are "same cards" the damage is generally limited to those six (same) cards. If we Toss (8 9), Notice that now any of four 7 Cards or also four Ten Cards "T" produce a RUN, and in the case of a lone 7 Card, it's an immediate Five Points. I think this makes Toss (6 9) compare quite favorably, since one of those "same" six (666, 999) cards produces just one more point, or Six Points. Toss (6 9) will "explode" if Dealer discards Toss (7 8), but that discard will ALSO "explode" if we Toss (8 9)! Meanwhile, Toss (6 9) seems to insulate us a bit better from forming a RUN, so while it does 'give away' a few points, it does so with an effort to limit the damage and allow us to peg as defensively as possible. I see no reason to keep the (5 5 6) combination together today, because even a Dozen Points plus average pegging only places us around Hole 115 at best. A much better plan for trying to win from this Relative Position involves DEFENDING during this deal, and then using our "Three Counts" as Next Dealer to WIN (read any of various comments with regards to handling this positional challenge over the previous few days as they are very relevant).
MiketheExpert says: Interesting analysis, JQT. 6-9 might be more of a moderate option in that it is likely to give up more points than the 8-9, but also less likely to blow up into a larger crib. Even though keeping 5-5-8-8 on the surface seems less likely to avoid a run, I'd like at least one more rank in separation myself. I am assuming you would plan to lead the 8 with this hand, but then what do you do upon dealer's very common response of a 7 for 15? You will be forced to follow with a 5 which is not that appealing, even though if he runs for 4, you will have a 31 in response. But a fair amount of damage has been done already...In fairness, none of the holdings are great for pegging value, and as Ras pointed out, they all start with a negative combined value.
JQT says: If Dealer holds a 7 Card, and especially if Dealer holds any combination of 7 Cards and 8 Cards, we would simply be glad these didn't end up in the Crib! Notice against a Dealer with (7 8) we get slammed, even if they PAIR an 8 Card Lead, since after our 24-6, Dealer scores again with (31-2). But regardless of whether we Toss (8 8), Toss (6 8), or Toss (6 9) we're glad if Dealer does not discard them! Toss (7 8) is a very popular discard, perhaps the most popular if we look at 10,000 discards. There will always be certain cards and card arrangements that can beat us; but Toss (6 9) seems a fairly good way to at least try to dodge a bullet today. I might even lead a 5 Card if Dealer were on Third Street: we could always try to PAIR our own 8 Cards if Dealer holds all Ten Cards (X X X X). Remember, the MAXIMUM immediate risk of leading a 5 Card is just Two Points. Toss (6 9) is "just" Two Points, and when compared and contrasted with Toss (6 8) and especially Toss (8 8), it's not so bad. And lastly, in this Relative Position, when also considering the Pegging, I believe Toss (6 9) holds up better than any discard with a 5 Card in it, and possibly does as well as Toss (8 9). I like to refer to something I have dubbed "Safety in Numbers" for the pegging in Cribbage. And it's not only applicable to "small" cards: Hold two 5 Cards makes an otherwise very dangerous solitary 5 Card a LOT less dangerous. Using PAIRS during the pegging can effective interrupt the development of many RUNS. Keep (5 5 8 8) is far from an ideal pegging hand, but given what we were dealt today, I think it's a reasonable hand. "Giving away" those Two Points via the (15-2) is not the end of the world, and the more I look at the position, leading a 5 Card might not be entirely bad here, either. Leading a 5 Card 'Sends a Message' to the Dealer! ; - )
mrob2199
1436 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:33 AM
Tough puzzle Jason-I’m pretty sure we discussed this hand before and it hasn’t gotten any easier LOL-I think we have to keep the 556 together here, so it’s either 88 or 89,obviously 2 dangerous tosses at this juncture of the game/slightly favor the 88 so I can keep the 9 for the extra 2 points and the slightly more spaced out hold
glmccuskey
4102 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:35 AM
I’m hoping 8-8 is a two point crib. I’ll lead the six and peg as defensively as I can.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:56 AM
Fives and nines aren't natural bedfellows, but any 5-? guarantees something in the crib. I just hope that it's a small something.

Happy Star Wars day to all.
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:09 AM
Went for the four cut or a minimal non cut across the board. Lead the six we will probably know our fate better once we see their response. dec
mfetchCT425
1400 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:53 AM
Very tough hand to receive at dealer’s position. Would completely break up hand if we only had cards to do that. For me, I got to keep 5-5-6 together here and toss either 8-8 or 8-9. Opted for 8-9 with fingers crossed.
Eolus619 says: Your 8-9 discard and explanation educational for me !
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:07 AM
Nice puzzle. Anything you toss the dealer might go BOOM in the crib. I'll try 88 and keep the 556 together in case a 4 gets cut. Lead the 6 and ditch the 5s. If the dealer has similar cards, we'll take a beating on the pegging.

jmath714
1299 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:21 AM
This was a grass roots game against glmccuskey - I believe I tossed 8-9, cut a 9, and he ended up with a 17 crib.

But results do not equate to a correct/incorrect method.

I’m still split between 8-8 and 8-9 here, with some slight consideration to 6-9 and 5-9.
Ras2829 says: Hi jmath714: Terrific puzzle! Keep 'em coming!
SallyAnn3 says: Good puzzle, and I agree with your method statement. As Aiken always say, it's not about if you tossed right--it's about if you cut right!
JQT says: Nice Puzzle! Very rare to see that the highest Popular Vote (as of 7p ET) also matches the Program's Selection.
Eolus619
1343 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:23 AM
I need 21 points to win and dealer needs 29. I can hear JQT whispering PATIENCE in my good ear. So my strategy is to make this a three hand game with me counting first two hands from now. from Ras..ten most frequent dealer discards to own crib in order 1-10 ..7/8,2/3,6/9,6/7,A/2,A/3,6/8,8/9,7/9 & Q/K. The goal is for me to move up the board but also stymy dealer from getting 19 points this hand. Tossing 8-8 or 6-9 seems to be inviting trouble. I am huddled with James today looking for additional comrades. My ( our!) keep gets help from 11/13 ranks. 5-9 is one of the four potentially least harmful discards including a five. With the J cut, W/L likely comes down to if the dealer now earns 19 points this hand. BTW...Pone discarding 5-9 to dealer crib averages less than 8-8 or 6-9.
Eolus619 says: upon further review..I certainly am looking to earn 21 points in two hands ..but my focus is defense and not aiding dealer to earn 19 points by helping his crib ..as Gougie00 would say ...go boom.
RubyTuesday
915 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:02 AM
I threw 8 8 to dealer in the hope that it doesn’t prove my undoing. I had to keep 5 5 6 together, decided that giving dealer 2 points and keeping 2 points meant that I didn’t throw 8 9.
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:21 AM
Close call, if we keep 2 extra points with the 9 we are giving the opponent a sure 2 points, whereas the 89 is still dangerous but not a guaranteed 2. Hitting the 5569 with the best cut still places us 7 points short without pegging, so I will hope for 2 more deals counting first.
MiketheExpert
1123 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:28 AM
The score indicates you need to defend as much as possible. No 5 throw into the opponent's crib, no pair of 8's which so often blows up...The best you can do in this situation is 8D 9. You are keeping 2 points with tremendous chances to improve the hand on most cuts. Only the 3 will not help you here. The problem here will be what to lead. There is nothing that does not pose a risk of giving up quite a few pegging points. Either lead of 6 or 8 is dangerous, especially if dealer decides to pair it. I may seriously consider leading one of the 5's, which he is likely to 15, and then you will have to continue with your next 5 and defend as much as possible.
MiketheExpert says: My 2nd choice here would be to throw 5 9, the 2 widest cards, still with almost as high an expected value, however you are still left with a dilemma on how to defend. In this case, I would start with the 8, and hope he pairs it so I can triple for 6...but other more likely responses could leave you with a problem here.
MiketheExpert says: After considering again, I will choose to lead the 6 over the 5's :) Since you're almost guaranteeing 2 points right off the bat, and not even the 5 would be a good follow-up, as there is even a chance he will follow with a 6 in which case you may be forced to give up a run or 31. If he 15's your 6 lead, follow with a 5 is generally not that bad a defensive play.
duke62
1483 votes

Joined: September 2014
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:23 AM
I don't need the points here, I need defense. And with opponent dealing short I can give up a few extra, although not a huge amount. 5-8 and 5-9 max out at a potential for 14 whereas the other tosses have potential for 20 to 24. And holding the 5-5-6 won't put me out even with a great cut. I'll toss the 8 as I believe it's less synergistic with the 5 for a big hand. The Jack is a very disappointing cut and could hurt, but the crib cards I know are spread out a bit. Definitely and unpopular choice today. We'll see if Halscrib even choses to evaluate it.
MiketheExpert says: admittedly I didn't consider this one...and I agree with your point that defense is more important than the big score on this hand. Wondering what your reasoning would be for tossing the 5-8 rather than the 5-9 though...Is it because you would like to have a bigger spread in your hand, feeling it would out-perform defensively? I can see the advantage upon leading a 6, since you have an automatic response of 9 if he makes a 15...It could very well be a worthy consideration, duke.
duke62 says: Hi Mike. Normally, I'd favor 5-9 over 5-8, but my thinking is that opponent's toss such as 7-8 or 6-7 are helped by both either the 8 or the 9 from me. However if they toss 4-6 or 5-6 or 10-J they get less help from my 5-8 than they would from my 5-9.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:02 AM
In my mind, giving away 2 fer sure points with the 9,6 is the least possible evil compared to the mayhem that COULD result with the other options.
dgergens says: Or as JQT said above, "We should be able to take over control of this game, as long as the Dealer's Crib does not explode."
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 10:34 AM
Choosing defense or offense, tossing 8-8 has the greater combined value as Ace, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, J, Q, and K score 8 or more points. Anyway you toss it the combined value begins with a minus sign. Don't know what win/loss percentages might be. Think it likely that win and loss percentages will be higher with the 8-8 toss. N/d increases chance to win at the same time increasing chances to lose with the 8-8 toss. A major reason for that is that pair will score two points 27.282% of the time. Conversely, the 8-8 will score 8 or more points 37.154% with 1/3 of those in 12-24 range. Got to hope for the former, lead the 6 and try to wiggle away, hoping to split the fives (5C) next play. Might as well fake the flush although showing adjacent cards in a suit is generally not noticed. A flush is much easier to fake if showing a suited 9-K, 6-Q, etc.
Ras2829 says: BTW if not playing this way, would have tossed unsuited 8-9.
glmccuskey says: But if throwing the 8-9 aren’t you forced to lead a five?
MiketheExpert says: It was a close decision for me leading between the 5's and the 6 as I chose to toss 8-9, but weighing options I would still to prefer leading the 6 with this holding as well.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 11:05 AM
Prefer 8-9 to avoid nasty accidents in the crib.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 12:17 PM
I'm with Ras explanation.
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 2:06 PM
Yeah....hitting the same toss as most of the big playrs...my day is complete lol
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:19 PM
Heads up:

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1. UKCA at 11am PDT
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Fun, free, all welcome. 5 games.

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Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:40 PM
I think it's between 5-5-8-8 (6-9) and 5-5-6-9 (8-8):

5-5-8-8: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -2¼pts

5-5-6-9: 4pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 6.82) = -2¾pts

Potential:

5-5-8-8: Improves with 2222, 55, 7777, 88 + 16xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/10/12pts with all cuts.

5-5-6-9: Improves with AAAA, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 999 + 16xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 8/10/14pts with all cuts.

Position:

Opponent is 4pts short of 4th street positional hole while we need 16pts to get into a reasonable position to peg out next deal. So I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 5-5-6-9 will peg better.

Summary:

5-5-8-8 is better for starting value by ½pt but 5-5-6-9 has more cuts for improvement all of which will score 8-14pts compared to 28 cuts for 8-12pts for 5-5-8-8. Also 5-5-6-9 should peg better so I'll throw the 8-8.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:43 PM
At 100-92* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total_____W1 %___W2 %
5-5-6-9____7.91+(-3.65)+(-5.83)=(-1.57)___0.4____52.1
5-5-8-8____6.87+(-3.50)+(-5.54)=(-2.17)___0.0____48.9
5-5-6-8H___6.26+(-3.72)+(-5.06)=(-2.52)___5.0____48.9

Defense______L1 %___L2 %
5-5-6-9_______3.4____33.4
5-5-8-8_______1.5____29.6
5-5-6-8H______2.8____29.9

5-5-6-9 is best for expected averages by 0.60pt over 5-5-8-8 and 0.95pt over 5-5-6-8H. However in this critical board position 5-5-6-8H is slightly best for Win %s and is second best lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 8D-9 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 6 and play Defense:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
6_____________________(-3.12)
8_____________________(-3.15)
5_____________________(-3.20)
dgergens says: I think I'm getting my head around the Halscrib numbers. With 5568H you have a very small, 5%, chance of winning this hand. And 5588 has no chance, which is consistent with what JQT and I said, we're in it for the second deal. But... your choice has nearly DOUBLE the chance of losing this hand than 5588. Sounds horrible until you remember we're only talking about 2.8 vs 1.5% chances of losing. I love stats and how you can present the same data to make opposing points. Anyway, hese two hands have the same chance of winning the second round, and 5558 has a tiny less chance of losing the second round. So, all I'm trying to say is these hands are really really really close and there is no shame in 5588, despite its limited popularity.