May 5, 2021
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| Total votes: 240 | |||||
| SallyAnn3 | Playing Gougie in ACC tourney--he cut a Jack! |
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glmccuskey 4100 votes Joined: April 2011 |
Wednesday 3:15 AM
I’ll keep the five points. I’ll lead the eight and ether pair a seven response or play my three if the eight is paired. |
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JQT 4143 votes Joined: October 2008 |
Wednesday 3:34 AM
This is a very difficult Relative Position, but sometimes such a predicament can actually simplify the Discard Decision.
I's Toss (T Q) and hope that we don't get that dreaded Jack Cut, which WILL occur about 9% of the time! It appears that it happened in the actual game, too. A Dealer can usually peg close to Four Holes on average, and pegging half that much will almost be impossible to prevent. While the Trey is the safest card to lead *in isolation* today, I think it will not hold back the Dealer, or allow us to peg out, as often as leading from the three-card RUN. I'll lead the 8 Card. If the Dealer 'baits' me with a 6 Card Reply, I will PAIR it and not jump on the RUN right away. If we can get to Hole 118 with our second card played, then we are within *striking distance* to WIN with a PAIR and "go" combination, which might occur on either of our last two cards. If Dealer holds any matching card, the game is likely over, unless we can get past the lead card and match the Dealer's Cards. And the Trey might help us peg out on some rare occasions. Note: Had a Jack Cut occurred, I would probably lead the 7 Card, from the middle of our RUN. But a Dealer who starts at Hole 119 is very tough to defeat! JQT says: If we Toss (T Q) and if we do NOT Cut a Jack, we might win such an endgame anywhere from 20% to 25% of the time. As I state above, while we know that the Trey is the safest lead, I believe out chances of winning can be maximized by leading either the 8 Card or the 7 Card. This is due to a few reasons: Dealer needs Four Holes, thus we can afford to take a degree of calculated risk with our Lead Card, since the initial response can only score Two Points. But in addition, a certain percentage of those potential wins for us will involve us pegging out, and thus by NOT leading the Trey, we can use it either defensively or offensively, as the situation dictates. Out-pegging a Dealer 5-to-3 is not unreasonable with such an arrangement as Pone, and it might occur 5% of the time, and yet leading the "safer" Trey will most likely diminish those specific instances from occurring. |
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mrob2199 1434 votes Joined: February 2009 |
Wednesday 3:48 AM
Obviously keeping the 678 together-I think the Q can benefit us more than a 3 or 10 in escaping trouble-if dealer was dealt a 3 odds are very high he is keeping it,so a 3 in our hand would be detrimental here-lead the 8 and play off as best as you can SallyAnn3 says: I almost kept the Q as an out card, but then thought the magic 11 might help me more. mrob2199 says: The magic eleven as pone is actually more detrimental than helpful Sally mrob2199 says: Unless you have a 3 card magic 11, such as 2/3/6 where you can possibly garner a 15 and a 31 SallyAnn3 says: Duh...ty..
have to engrave that in my mind....still!
JQT says: Yes: as Pone, the "Magic" is limited to either a three-card or a four-card "Magic Eleven" *or* occasionally when you have a Ten Card (or "X") to go along with that two-card Eleven (thus it is essentially a three-card "Magic Twenty-One." Basically, the "Magic Eleven" is an attempt to benefit off of an Opponent holding one or more Ten Cards (or "X") and a "Sweet Sixteen" is trying to exploit our Opponent holding a 5 Card along with a Ten Card (or "X"). If we are Dealer, Pone may lead a card rank valued at a count of Ten and thus all we need are two cards that 'add up' to Eleven to target Thirty-One. As Pone, if we lead a Ten Card (or one of any three cards that 'add up' to Twenty-One), now we might ultimately obtain a "go" and collect the desired (31-2). For example, if we held (3 7 8 T) today, we could lead any card except the 7 Card, and if Dealer has all Ten Cards, we are CERTAIN to get a "go" and score (31-2). So, in summary, remember: as Dealer, two-card, as well as three-card and four card "Magic Elevens" and "Sweet Sixteens" are all viable, while as Pone a two-card variant of EITHER can *only* work if we hold an additional Ten Card (or "X"). Play out the different possible scenarios with a deck of cards, and you can become familiar with how these all can be tallied whether you are Dealer or Pone. |
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wasa 3017 votes Joined: November 2014 |
Wednesday 3:49 AM
Have to keep 5 points. |
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dec 6357 votes Joined: April 2008 |
Wednesday 4:13 AM
Keep the fin and lead the eight . Odds are very low to pull this off. dec |
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Jazzselke 2586 votes Joined: March 2009 |
Wednesday 4:32 AM
Q is our best out card if the dealer also has middle cards, which seems to happen way too often.
Miss Sally, don't cut a Jack! SallyAnn3 says: Wellllllllllll if only lol. This is why I urge everyone to post in the green box what the real cut was when you submit the puzzle :) |
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james500 3922 votes Joined: June 2013 |
Wednesday 5:09 AM
6-7-8 for the points I need, the 3 for a safe lead. |
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mfetchCT425 1398 votes Joined: February 2009 |
Wednesday 6:02 AM
Kept the low cards but I see the reasoning to keep the Q. Will lead the 8. |
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Gougie00 5729 votes Joined: March 2008 |
Wednesday 6:36 AM
I kept the 3 to lead it. If the dealer has one, I am dead anyway.
As I recall, that's what happened. A jack was cut and I paired what she lead. Extreme cribbage talent was exhibited. SallyAnn3 says: CONGRATS on being the ACC Player of the Month for April! For those unaware, this distinction is earned by the played who earns the most IRP's in the previous month. Wtg :) Gougie00 says: I mentioned this to my wife. She replied "what a waste of time." Very supportive. Raises the question of how many other wives put up with us playing so much cribbage. Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: If you are waiting on a wife to say "congratulations" might as well take a nap in that long Rip Van Winkle tradition. Have been married 61 years and have not heard such yet. She seems to think cribbage is a waste of time as she watches many hours of TV daily which seems a waste of time to me. They say opposites attract! So be it. In any case, such performance on the crib board merits a hearty "well done"! Does that work as well as CONGRATS? JQT says: Legend has it that Ernest Hemingway, in a bet or contest, once penned the six most sad words ever written in succession: "For Sale, Baby Shoes, Never Worn" -- and yet with merely five words: "What a waste of time," you've been linguistically demolished in what we can only admire as perhaps an even more economical use of language. Walter Scott once wrote that: "Chess is a sad waste of brains" which, in spite of utilizing seven words, is a well-known phrase uttered by the partners of many Chess players. One of my favorite sayings is that, "Chess does not produce madness; Chess reveals madness." It works for Cribbage, too! Maybe you could use this phrase by substituting the favorite pastime or hobby of your spouse or partner, whether it be shopping, or knitting, or watching "The Price Is Right"! |
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Eolus619 1341 votes Joined: June 2020 |
Wednesday 7:13 AM
Keeping the run seems best to me since it allows me to count out if dealer doesn’t do it first. The Q was my escape. For anyone who would like to brush up on pegging strategy, I recommend Barlow ..Cribbage for Experts ... starting on page 19. The what to lead decision we face today is directly addressed as well as what to do with other keeps. As Ras has mentioned often, have a pegging plan for every hand . btw..as I am learning to improve my pegging , the thing I am most pleased about so far is the rules only allow me four cards with which to self destruct. |
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Goatman 2502 votes Joined: March 2017 |
Wednesday 7:48 AM
Kept the Q to escape. Rob has said it all for me.
Sally...never every cut the Jack when the dealer is this close to 121. SallyAnn3 says: I will try harder next time lol |
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joekayak 1873 votes Joined: May 2016 |
Wednesday 9:04 AM
kept the Q as an out card. Like it way better than the 3. What does Hal like? |
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RubyTuesday 913 votes Joined: January 2019 |
Wednesday 10:24 AM
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Ras2829 5153 votes Joined: November 2008 |
Wednesday 10:24 AM
Only way dealer can win this game is to peg four holes. How best to avoid pegs ought to be n/d main strategy, Play SAFE. Two-car magic elevens for non-dealer seldom show any sign of magic. The trey is a potential pegging liability. Best ditch a lone small card here as long as we can retain five points for first count. Lead the 7 to split the sequence and escape with the Queen. If retaining the trey is your plan to lead it or escape with it. Have queried this hand in prior times in this position on Cribbage Prof, and the Prof shows to retain 3-6-7-8. Without all the gears in my gearbox that the cribbot thas, it seems that 6-7-8-Q must give a better chance to limit dealer to three pegs and for n/d to win this game. Am anxious to see HalscribCLX choice this day. Ras2829 says: BTW when looking at these six cards the 3-6-7-8 have the greatest pegging value. If choosing peg avoidance the 7-8-10-Q would be a better choice. That's only two points- so got to hold 6-7-8 to have five to win with first count. So the 10 spot is too close to the 6-7-8 for an escape card. Hello Queen! Ras2829 says: Ti chime in a bit with the discussion about magic elevens, 2 card "elevens from heaven" are of benefit to dealer, three card 11's benefit either dealer of n/d. and four card 11's are very strong for dealer - not so much for non-dealer. Those are A-A-A-8, 2-2-2-5, 3-3-3-2, dynamite for dealer against X-point double runs, frequent. As dealer I qualified for the All-American team a couple of times because of scoring the A-A-A-8They hand. On any ten lead, drop the 8, in the latter two take the 15-2 with 2-2-2 5, and drop the 1 on any X-point lead with 3-3-3-2. So you can see dealer in each case pegging two for the pair, 31-8 for the triple. Ten unanswered pegs anywhere on the board is big. On fourth street it will most often turn a potential loss into a win. If non-dealer the correct lead from these four card 11's is from the triple; so you see the scoring opportunity is much less for n/d. Ras2829 says: What a screwed up message-guess will have to start preparing them in document space, cut, and past here. "Ti" should be "To", delete "They hand", "drop the 1" should be "drop the 2". |
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RubyTuesday 913 votes Joined: January 2019 |
Wednesday 10:25 AM
I kept the run and the 3+8=11. |
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MiketheExpert 1121 votes Joined: April 2021 |
Wednesday 11:15 AM
well, our obvious only concern here is that dealer not peg 4 points before we can count our hand/ None of the holdings are fantastic in our efforts. Really it seems no matter what we hold, we are going to have to lead the 3 and hope he does not pair it. Thus I chose to keep 6, 7, 8 as my next cards, thinking that he would more likely keep a face card together with a 3, and thus are more dangerous options for him to score 4 and peg out. Also, the most I can keep in my hand is 2 points if I am holding onto the 3, and even though it is dangerous, I really don't see a lot of options. MiketheExpert says: I meant to say any other holding than this while keeping the 3, means you can only hold on to a max of 2 points :) MiketheExpert says: I do see where holding the Q as an out card may be, but in this case you are really going to have to hold dealer to just 3 points, as it is very likely leading from 6-7-8, he will get 2 points out of the gate. (3 for the automatic one.) The Q is then the only possible out for this happening. I could be wrong, but although the 3 seems to give you more chances to prevent the dealer from scoring 4, if he pairs the 3, this pretty much guarantees the loss, whereas you still have an outside shot to hold dealer to 3 as an example if you lead the 8 and he makes 15 for 2. |
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JCM 910 votes Joined: April 2019 |
Wednesday 6:17 PM
I kept the run and 3, inspired by JQT who suggested leading the 8, not the 3.
Permission to crow a little? I won all 5 games in the 4pm tourney. First time I've won all 5. But I didn't skunk anyone so I got 2*5 = 10 points. Uni-Boss also won all 5, but he skunked 1 player, so he got 2*4 +3 = 11 pts. I came 2nd to Uni in the tournament. Thing is, in one of my games I tried really hard to skunk my Opp, but he just managed to find 91 pts before I went out. Would have tied with Uni for first if I had succeeded there. Uni and I would have had a run-off match then. Have a great day, everyone! JCM says: Just checked Uni-Boss' game record. He actually lost a close game but he skunked 3 Opponents and won a regular game for 3*3 +2 =11 points. --- Impressive, Uni-Boss! |
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