Sunday 4:21 AM

Was thinking offense to include the pegging until seeing the starter card, knowing that I have a nifty 14 points, will now down shift to optimal (cautious offense). Will break the 3-card sequence, lead the deuce, and proceed from there. Will be at hole 98 without pegs with the deck well into 4th street CPZ (95-99). A couple of safe pegs would be icing on the cake. Needing minimum of 11 points out of this hand, n/d should risk the 6-8 toss. Tossing 8-8 will always cost two points as a minimum. The 6-8 does score zero with quite a few 3-card additions. Check it out. The 6-8 scores 0-2 33.896% of the time on the other side of the board and the deuce cut seems of no direct benefit. Should be on our way to chalking up a win and RAS is not kidding. You gotta watch out for the Goatman though as an important part of his life is kidding.

   

Sunday 4:32 AM

How confident are you that you can cut a 7? Every time I toss the opponent 6-8, I can cut a 7 almost every time.

Doing it anyway and holding the flush. Lead the 3.

Summer arrived early and its over 90.

   

Sunday 5:08 AM

These kind of situations come up every so often. It feels like to me this goes bad maybe one percent of the time. That 95-97 zone so important. dec

   

Sunday 5:20 AM

No choice in the matter here, you got to discard (6 8S), keeping the A-2-3 run and the 4-card flush. Before the deal, we are in dire straits and I would have looked to try and hold a hand for maximum score if I could also discard safely enough that I would live to fight another day. The A-6-8-8 has good offensive pegging potential and a few more cuts for maximum-scoring hand, but it cannot be done at the cost of throwing (2 3) into the crib here, for which you close to signing your death warrant. You start with an additional point (7 points), and boy am I glad to see that 2D cut. This doubles our hand score to 14 pts, and all of a sudden things might not be looking so grim. I am certainly going to switch to defense now and try holding him back as long as we can play this way. If he has a great hand also, there is nothing much we can do, but lead the 2 and only take relatively safe pegs here. I'd love to limit him to his 1 pegging pt if at all possible.

   

Sunday 5:25 AM

Seems I'm out of step with the group.

   

Sunday 5:58 AM

Really valuable insightful comments above. dec’s point about dealing 1st from 96+ spot on. I am going to play my position first. I really DO NOT like discarding 6-8 to dealer crib, but today I will as the goal is 96+. My flush keep , also containing a run for a potential eight + four, gets help from 13/13 ranks & the cut starts me with 12. Three card “11” for n/d pegging may help too.

   

Sunday 5:59 AM

I, too, chose to keep the flush of A238. I'm just an echo of the above. Safe pegs now. Dealing from at least 94, we can win this game - provided Opp hasn't gotten a big hand himself here.

Reminder - today(June 6) - is the 77th anniversary of D-day. Anyone here have a relative involved in that? If, so, give them some recognition/appreciation today. My own dad, deceased now, was at the time a Lieutenant in the Canadian Navy, and indirectly involved by participating in protecting the transport convoys that were keeping England supplied. He was on a "baby aircraft carrier"(acronym CVE) escorting the convoys in the Battle of the Atlantic. I think CVE stands for 'Carrier Vessel Escort" though the sailors cynically said it stood for "combustible, vulnerable, expendable". A CVE carried about 20 planes and was not a fast boat, since the convoys themselves were not fast. The planes hunted for German U-Boats and tried to take them out.

Heads up:
Monica's tournament at 11am PDT today(about 6 hours from this writing).
Fun, free, 6 games. Hard to win - but a friendly crowd there. It seems to have become glitch-free with Monica running it. Typically 70-ish players.

Go to bracketjd.com to sign up.

   

Sunday 6:40 AM

As Pone at Hole 84, we *really* wish to get to Hole 96 (or thereabouts) by completion of this deal, by virtually ANY MEANS NECESSARY.

This does *not* however mean that I shall consider Toss (2 3), so what else is available to us on our colorful palette of choices today?

The most obvious and logical theme is to consider starting with Seven Points by retaining BOTH the FLUSH with the RUN and Keep (A 2 3 8) and Toss (6 8).

Another idea to maybe consider as we could begin with a healthy Six Points involves two (other) ideas, since we could either Toss (2 8) or Toss (3 8), unsuited discards of course.

Toss (2 8) is slightly safer than Toss (3 8), and either of these are safer than Toss (6 8), so it would seem that today's main struggle is to ascertain whether the safety of the unsuited Toss (2 8), as compared and contrasted with the relatively more dangerous Toss (6 8), is worth starting with one fewer point.

Our board position *screams* for us to achieve the Average Total of Pone which, after Pegging and Hand Score Total is about Ten Points, and so I am inclined to start with the hand that begins with Seven Points rather than the hand that begins with only Six Points.

And this is true even if the Toss (6 8) discard does tend to 'give up' most or all of that single point and possible even more, because the harsh reality is, we need that extra point *so much more* than our Opponent needs it! We cannot risk Toss (2 3), but we CAN AND SHOULD risk Toss (6 8)!

Therefore, let's Keep (A 2 3 8) and Toss (6 8) today. After the very helpful Deuce Cut, we now have a splendid hand of Fourteen (Wonderful) Points, even prior to any Pegging! I'll lead the Trey, since it 'chases' off any 5 Card reply, and with the Deuce Cut, it may convince the Dealer that a Ten Card (or "X") reply is safe, as the odds of us now holding a Deuce are somewhat diminished.

Leading the 8 Card is an idea that is much more aggressive, but after a Count of Eighteen, since we cannot *boost* the Count over Twenty-One, it leaves us much too vulnerable, in my opinion, and as we already have Fourteen Points (or Four Points MORE than our much-needed Ten Points) coming via our Hand Total, it's perhaps wise to tread more lightly during the pegging.

   

Sunday 6:42 AM

Playing max offense with the discard so as to get as far down the board as possible. Tossing 2-3 is not an option. Tossing A-8 gives up too many points in my hand, so I'll keep 7 and see what happens.

   

Sunday 2:46 PM

At 84-84* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W3 %___W4 %
A-2-3-8H___10.41+1.80+(-5.16)=7.05____8.5____53.7
A-2-3-6____10.41+1.76+(-6.17)=6.00____8.9____53.6
A-2-6-8H____8.46+1.61+(-4.48)=5.59____4.3____42.9
A-3-6-8H____8.41+1.57+(-4.47)=5.51____4.2____43.5
2-3-6-8H____7.50+2.17+(-4.29)=5.38____3.9____42.1

Offense______L3 %___L4 %
A-2-3-8H______7.2____28.2
A-2-3-6_______9.0____30.0
A-2-6-8H______4.4____34.9
A-3-6-8H______4.6____34.5
2-3-6-8H______4.5____35.7

A-2-3-8H is best for expected values by 1.05pts and although A-2-3-6 is very slightly best for Win %s A-2-3-8H is lower than A-2-3-6 for Loss %s by an appreciable amount. So I'll select 6-8S to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead the 2 and play Defense:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
2____________________(-1.85)
3____________________(-2.01)
A____________________(-2.01)
8____________________(-2.50)

   

Sunday 4:45 PM

The only hope

   

Sunday 4:56 PM

Good puzzle today! Relieved to see that I made a popular decision.