June 7, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by MiketheExpert
0-0*  ?
40%
23%
9%
5%
4%
4%
3%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 242
MiketheExpertwhat a throw decision to start off the game into your opponents crib. What would you do here?
james500
3921 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 3:16 AM
Tough one, I'll try A-4.
Plenty of helpful cuts.
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Monday 3:17 AM
Goatman says: Don’t like ANY toss. Early enough not to worry tossing that pesky five. Like the AA42 combo, may get the 3. Prefer 25 rather than 22 to dealer.
MiketheExpert says: Hi Goatman...(2 5) would be a consideration for me too, but I think the benefits of holding the (AA45) combo hand and pegging slightly outweigh the increased distaste of tossing the (2 2) pair. And you are quite correct, I don't like ANY toss here to begin the game. With (4 5), you are giving away 7 pts on average while only holding 4 pts with relatively sparse chances to improve, although as you have seen in my comments, I did toss and get the 3 cut...But with (2 2), you are giving away 6 pts on average, while only holding TWO, granted with much better chances to improve...So as I said, what a decision to make on the very first deal!
JQT says: We often look at Negative Delta, not as the Primary or even the Secondary Factor when discarding "overseas," but often as a Tertiary Factor, or i.e., when all other themes are exhausted! And while the Negative Delta of Toss (2 2) is boosted by the presence of a few "small" cards, it's rather tiny as all the Treys are still unaccounted for. However, in today's arrangement, the Toss (2 5) idea actually suffers from Positive Delta, and what we look for as Pone is the higher Negative Delta! This is because our solitary 5 Card has NO "helpers" today, and thus not only are Ten Cards (or "X") more likely than usual to find their way into the Enemy Crib, but any of four 8 Cards as well. This "span" between the slight amount of Negative Delta after Toss (2 2) as opposed to the fair amount of Positive Delta after Toss (2 5) tends to place a bit more favor toward 'ditching' the PAIR of Deuces today, and while it may not determine our decision completely, it should and does at least place its thumb on the scale.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:36 AM
You were dealt WHAT?! Shall we (gasp!) Toss (4 5) "hunt down" one of those four Treys?

Yeah, Cribbage can be a cruel mistress sometimes. We retain the most possible potential after the absurd Toss (4 5), and we perhaps give away the least after Toss (2 4) or even Toss (2 2). Crazy!

It seems like as long as we give our Opponent a PAIR, or our 5 Card, or cards that 'add up' to Five, all will be well (I think I am joking). Or perhaps not.

Seriously, Toss (2 4) might be a good compromise; because then, even if we get a Trey Cut, it would help BOTH sides of the board. Even Toss (2 2) could fall into this similar category. I've often said that Deuces and 5 Cards are like "Water and Oil" and as such, they do NOT mix. (Or was it Piss and Vinegar? Sorry!)

If we were Dealer, I'd be more inclined to peg those Aces, but as Pone, since we must lead during the pegging, we may wonder if those two Deuces might work better for us. Probably not, since the Total Count of any hand we choose today is so low. Shall we 'ditch' them?

We're so far 'down the rabbit hole' we might now think of Toss (A 4) or even Toss (A 5), but then here we are, back where we began our thinking: why not then Toss (2 4) or Toss (2 2)? Yes, I better stop before my head explodes: it's Toss (2 2), and after the 9 Card Cut, I'll lead the 4 Card.

I sure wish I had thought of Toss (A A) instead, but: too late!
Ras2829
5151 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:56 AM
If choosing an offense strategy to include the pegging (as a good non-dealer of hand one should), it's goodbye 2-2. Only considered discards of 2-2, 2-4, or A-A. Will lead the four, if dealer response is a 10, will drop the five for count of 19, and you can follow that to see where it often leads to a whopping 31-4. When choosing defense, would take the 15-2. The 2-2 choice results in an edge in combined values of nearly .6 of a point. The A-A-4-5 has the largest potential hand value of those choices and is the only to break two offensive pegs. Those two advantages more than offset the crib value of the 2-2 at 6.186 (higher than 2-4 5.207 or A-A 5./592. Just may be that 2-2 will score a mere two points which it does about once in five.
Goatman says: Hi Ras…still a lot to learn in this game we call cribbage for this old goat(z). What does 2 5 average across the board to dealers crib?
Ras2829 says: Hi Goatman: Your suspicions were correct that A-5 5.811 or 2-5 5.794 have lower averages to opponent crib than does 2-2 at 6.186. If that were all to consider, the 2-5 would be correct choice. In low scoring hands such as this when discarding a five, n/d removes a card that scores points with all of those X-pointers. So n/d this day would lose about two points in hand potential to save .4 of a point in crib. In addition to the loss of hand potential score, a few tenths of a point is lost in pegging potential. Always nice to hear from you. Please also know that I have "a lot to learn in this game...". Cribbage cannot be learned in a single lifetime - so guess the key to continued learning is to believe in reincarnation. Like the (z) following goat.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 5:03 AM
Tossing a pair of twos to dealer and holding AA45 (4 card magic eleven) with today's hand. Best hand for expected averages. There are no two low value cards to toss to dealer as I look at 2-2-, A-4 or A-A.
glmccuskey
4098 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Monday 5:25 AM
Agree with RAS. Would have taken the 15 after the 4 lead but I like his thoughts on saving the aces.
mfetchCT425
1397 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 5:29 AM
Tossing 2-2 and keeping the “triple-5” hand which improves to 8 on any 5, 9, or “face” cut.
Eolus619 says: Mike…This question is from the perspective of games first n/d. I have now played enough to know how difficult it is for games first /n/d to be first to deal @ 18+ . I also appreciate each hand / board position influences a player’s strategy. My question is ..as games first n/d are you striving to be first deal @ 44+ or is it more realistic to put together an overall strategy to have the deck 1st @ 70+. Maybe it is to attain both and the dealt hands make the difference as to whether 44+ is doable..but 70+ is almost a must ..thx
JQT says: The two "Guiding Lights" of Positional Play in Cribbage are to: Try to become the FIRST player to deal from those 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Street 'par' Holes, 18, 44, 70, 96, respectively, and; simultaneously to attempt to prevent our Opponent from achieving that same goal. Mathematically, the way this works out on a 121 Point Board is that First Non-Dealer can best improve his/her odds by playing aggressively at the start of the game, and seek to win in a game of odd-numbered deals (usually nine), whereas the First Dealer should begin with a defensive posture, and thus attempt to win the game in an even number of deals (usually eight or ten). After each subsequent deal, we reassess the relative position, and decide whether trying to speed up or slow down ourselves, or do the same to our Opponent, will have more of a chance of keeping us on target, and/or inhibiting our Opponent from doing the same.
JQT says: Incidentally, for those who enjoy thinking about the Mathematics of Cribbage: For the concept stated just above, the First Dealer Advantage in Cribbage is the reason why, in 2012, I came up with a design for a "Modulo Twenty-Six" or what I called the "Fair Cribbage Board" of length 130 holes (26 times 5 equals 130), which should therefore not convey any advantage to either the First Dealer or the First Non-Dealer! I even mailed (physically) my idea to the ACC, but I'm sure it ended up in a large 'Spam' Drawer of impractical or quixotic ideas. Of course, this idea would require a program to test its robustness (I remember the ACC Board suggested that I should try it out on a few dozen games; actually, I believe a program would rather wish to test it on several MILLIONS of games, which might take a while ... perhaps fifteen minutes! This board, which I have completed the drawings for its composition, involve one addition bracket of Five Holes, and then another bracket of an irregular set of Four Holes, bringing the total up to 130. Since Dealer Average is Sixteen Points, and Pone Average is Ten Points, the three-count "cycle" is 26 (hence Colvert's 'Twenty-Six Theory'), and 26 times 5 equals 130 or 5 complete cycles (it's equally divisible by five, and thus defined mathematically as a "Modulo Twenty-Six" board). Maybe they can etch this Cribbage Board idea as an epitaph into the stone that gets placed above the ground where I am ultimately buried!
Eolus619 says: thx John..as always …valuable input
scottcrib
1634 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Monday 5:32 AM
Ugh. Almost tossed A-4 unsuited, but instead chose 2-2. Glad to see I have good company. Self-doubt is a killer.
dec
6356 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 5:34 AM
Hand improves on A 4 5 6 8 9 and faces quite a few cuts. I also like to try to keeping the aces for a 31/4 pegs. dec
dec says: and the three. dec
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Monday 5:39 AM
I'm keepin' the pair.
scottcrib says: You mean the pair of pairs? :-)
Eolus619
1339 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Monday 6:29 AM
The problem of Pone tossing pairs to dealer crib never changes. Only the Q-Q & K-K average less than six. The 4-5 averages 7.26 (Schell) Sending “seven” to hold “four” ..nope. Need pegs for sure ..so toss the 2-2 based on the logic from comments above. This is another example of how difficult it is for Pone to deal first from 18+.
MiketheExpert says: Hi Eolus, as far as your comment. You're absolutely right (it would seem this to me from appearances after having played HAL enough)...and I did toss the 45, almost half expecting a 3 to show up on the cut, which it DID (this part is not false, believe it or not...) And so, there was a wild 1st hand score with him scoring a big crib as well...even with my 16 pt hand, he was ahead after the 1st deal, but I ultimately ended up winning the game. :)
JQT says: The propensity of getting dealt Double Runs, and of getting a Cut to obtain a Double-Double Run on eCribbage back in circa 2008 was something Hal Mueller and I used to shake our heads at, and for a while we were collecting samples of Dozen-Point (or more) hands and testing their absurd frequency. Finally, I introduced Hal (via email) to Damien of eCrib, and the Random Number Generator was suspected and worked on as a cure. It got fixed somewhat, but the RNG craziness continued, and allowed players to speculate, gain ratings, and learn bad habits, and this is frankly one of the reasons why I stopped using a few online Cribbage sites about a decade ago. Those large numbers of Double Runs just do not, and should not, occur in Cribbage, and this does NOT occur in real, live play, nor does it occur in the Halscrib family of programs, which since REX employ the Twists Algorithm for the RNG. Every so often, I still hear that some of the popular Cribbage sites still exhibit this problem with using a biased RNG that has exploitable patterns, which is sad, since generating a truly (at least pseudo) random number is necessary for a real, and fair game. It's a bit like playing with a deck that has a few "bent" cards in it in real life, only in this case, what is "bent" is the propensity to both deal (and 'Cut into') Double Runs and Double Double Runs!
RubyTuesday
911 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Monday 6:55 AM
I had no idea what to throw - 4 5? A pair? Ended up throwing dealer 2 2 and am a little surprised to see that it’s the most popular choice.
MiketheExpert
1119 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Monday 7:29 AM
As much as it pains me, I bit the bullet and tossed 4 5 being the first hand. I felt I needed to keep my AA22 combo for the double run possibility, and I'd least I'd be compensated if a 3 or face card was cut for my hand score. I also looked very closely at the (2H 5C) and (A A) discards as well. Then I decided on (4 5), since, with one I was already tossing a 5, and I badly wanted to keep my 2 A's for the pegging. You may be shocked to know that a 3 actually did hit the cut, but for those of you who frequent ecribbage, maybe this does not come as that much of a shock, either!....I wish I could remember how the game went from there, I'm pretty sure I won but needless to say I was in for a wild adventure...lol
MiketheExpert says: and correction...by double run I meant QUADRUPLE run obviously!
MiketheExpert says: oh yes, I also looked at the (2 2), which seems to be another popular (if that's the right word, I don't think so!) choice.
MiketheExpert says: If I was playing in a "live game", I think I would have also ended up tossing the (2 2) to be honest, and thinking it over, I really believe it is the better decision. I'm keeping 3 5's in my hand (the 5 and 2 A4 combos), and excellent pegging hand, and and a lot of cuts to improve as well ( the As, and any card from 3 to K except the 7 improves this....yup, definitely a better choice! But seeing as it was a computer game, I also really wanted to tempt fate to see what would happen here!.....
Eolus619 says: Hello…I have now played enough ecribbage games to say that Hal as games first dealer frequently earns more than 16 points from first hand…also often enough to notice Hal is 20+ way more than in a live in person game ..so 4-5 to dealer crib in an ecribbage game is really asking for it imo
MiketheExpert says: Another thing to add, as good as you'd think keeping A's would be in your hand, as n/d they lose their effectiveness when you hold them together with 2's....you are very unlikely to be able to score them together for a nice peg, and I'm sure the (A A 2 2) holding would average under 2 pegging pts as N/D... So, you guys caught me! I discarded (4 5) anyway, knowing there were better decisions out there, just to see if would catch a 3 with this hand :) For illustrative purposes, I did catch the 3, but this is an example of what not to do (even on the 1st hand, where I felt it was the only place I'd be willing to give it a shot!) RAS and JQT, you probably smelled a rat and caught on to me right away, lol :))
Jazzselke
2584 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Monday 9:04 AM
Like the triple nickels also. Deuces no bargain but better than 45 IMO.
Gougie00
5728 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 9:18 AM
Looking for a 3, but a 3 helps 2245 as well. Not tossing a 45 in the other guy's crib. Lead a 2.
scottcrib says: Hey Greg. I thought about tossing the A-A since every cut helps the hand except for an A, but I didn't want to give up on maximizing an X cut since I am first n/d.
warquaker
238 votes

Joined: July 2020
 
 
 
Monday 1:42 PM
Colvert was fearless in giving up points in order to keep points at the start of the game when not having the advantage of first crib: so i threw 45.
Coeurdelion
5592 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 5:09 PM
I think it's probably between A-A-4-5 (2-2) and A-A-2-2 (4-5):

A-A-4-5: 2pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.38) = -4½pts

A-A-2-2: 4pts - 7¼pts (Schell: 7.26) = -3¼pts

Potential:

A-A-4-5: Improves with AA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 9999 + 16xXs = 36 cuts.

A-A-2-2: Improves with AA, 22, 3333, 9999 + 16xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/16pts with AA, 22, 3333 + 16xXs = 24 cuts.

Position:

We're First Pone so will be trying to reach 18pts or more and playing Offense.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg well but A-A-4-5 is a 4-card magic eleven so I think will peg better.

Summary:

A-A-2-2 is better for starting value by 1¼pts but A-A-4-5 has more cuts for improvement and 36 cuts for 5-8pts compared to 24 cuts for 8/16pts.
HalscribCLX
5315 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 5:18 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-A-4-5____6.30+2.20+(-5.84)=2.66____24.0____19.9
A-A-2-5____4.83+1.83+(-4.75)=1.91____24.7____21.6
2-2-4-5____5.65+1.87+(-5.66)=1.86____22.2____19.0
A-2-4-5*___4.00+2.17+(-4.35)=1.82____19.9____19.6
A-2-2-5____5.48+1.89+(-5.62)=1.75____36.3____27.7
A-2-2-4____5.52+2.09+(-6.09)=1.52____23.5____19.5
A-A-2-2____6.96+1.50+(-7.25)=1.21____23.4____17.2

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
A-A-4-5_______42.4____55.3
A-A-2-5_______38.9____52.1
2-2-4-5_______41.5____55.8
A-2-4-5*______38.0____53.9
A-2-2-5_______41.2____47.2
A-2-2-4_______42.0____55.6
A-A-2-2_______45.9____58.5

A-A-4-5 is best for expected averages by 0.75pt and although A-2-2-5 is very much best for Win %s while A-A-2-5 and A-2H-4-5 are much lower for Loss %s. However as it's at the very beginning of the game I'll decide based on expected averages and select 2-2 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead an A and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
A_____________________2.22
4_____________________1.96
5_____________________1.94