June 9, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by bearbait
114-113*  ?
60%
21%
6%
4%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 248
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:03 AM
Needing Seven Points as Pone to WIN, today we shall probably lose.

But we can still try to optimize our chances, and I believe this comes after Toss (Q K). This discard decision should still allow a few Cuts to give us some remote form of hope.

The important thing is to not make our situation any worse than it already is, and to at least give this remote shot our best effort, although after the King Cut, it looks dire indeed.

I'll lead the 7 Card and peg as much as possible.
james500
3921 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:12 AM
Two thirds or so of the deck are not X cards, so I've a fair chance of a helpful cut.

7 lead is covered by both the Ace and the 9, but I doubt Dealer will take the bait.
mrob2199
1433 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:21 AM
I think this hold gives us the most chances to peg over the finish line-a 3 puts us out,a 2 leaves us 1 peg short,and a 4 or 5 cut leave us 3 short
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:35 AM
I believe this would be the best hold even though we will probably lose. A cut of 3 (3333) gives us 7 points that we need to go out and a cut of 2 (222) gives us 6 points requiring us to peg 1 and a cut of 4 (4444) or 5 (5555) gives us 4 points leaves us 3 short.
Just a repeat of Rob's comments I see.
dec
6356 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:11 AM
Seeing opponent is going to play D the best they can lets go for the game cut hold. Pegging not impossible either count could be twenty five and perhaps they hold a three. Lead the King. dec
SallyAnn3 says: Congrats on SILVER last night in ACC DAN--one Dan per lounge!
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:23 AM
Correction to yesterday's tourney announcement. Its start time is 4pm(today), not 11am, as I said yesterday. I have to help my wife out with a doctor's appointment at 4pm - so probably I will not be at the tournament.

Edited announcement:

Heads-up:

Monica's tournament today(June 9) 4pm PDT

Fun, free, 6 games.

Hard to win - but a nice group there, usually 70-ish players.

Go to bracketjd.com to sign up
Gougie00
5728 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:34 AM
Put a fork in me, I'm done. Looking for a 3.
SallyAnn3 says: I posted to you yesterday about getting on eCribbage.....
jmudge
701 votes

Joined: July 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:12 AM
Ugh.
Jazzselke
2585 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:24 AM
"On a wing and a prayer".
Eolus619 says: Nice effort last night in ACC 9 game earning 12 points by going 6-3.
SallyAnn3 says: Congrats on SILVER last night in ACC DAN--one Dan per lounge!
dec
6356 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:43 AM
Joey Scarbury... Believe it or not . dec
Eolus619
1340 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:21 AM
First things first..Mike Fetch earned Gold last night in ACC 9 game and Jazz went 6-3 to earn 12 points. Congrats to both. Also safe travels and GL to all those playing in this weekends tourney. Lots of CHOD involved. As to this puzzle, need to play my position first. Tossing the Q-K gets cut help from 9/13 ranks but maxes out @ 5. Sending the 7-9 gets cut help from 8/13 , but can earn a max of seven. Pegging for two @ the end tough to do. Dylan song..it’s not dark yet but it’s gettin there.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:24 AM
June 9, 2021 Hand Mapping - j q t -

(114-113*) (Ah 2d 7c 9s Qc Kh)

Today let's compare the two most obvious choices that might allow us to cover the spread of Seven Holes and WIN as Pone. We see that it's likely a battle between Toss (Q K) and Toss (7 9). The actual Crib Values and even the NET Expected Values mean absolutely nothing if we don't get our Seven Points, because the Dealer is very likely to WIN from Hole 113 if we don't get there FIRST with First Hand Show.

The Knowns: As Pone, we tend to average pegging about Two Holes, and we should see that after Toss (Q K), we can retain a slightly better pegging hand. And if we hold this better pegging hand, we should tend to peg those average Two Holes more often than not!

Thus, we might wish to look for the discard choice that can BEST give us AT LEAST Five Points in a reliable fashion, and not simply seek the MOST points. Let's look at the map:


Keep (A 2 7 9) Toss (Q K)

Expected Hand Average is 110 DIV 46 = 2.391
Expected Crib Value (Hessel) is 4.590
Total is -2.199

08x05= 40 - 3333, 8888 (Maximum Hand, 8 cuts = 5 Points)
11x04= 44 - 5555, 6666, 777 (19 cuts >= 4 Points)
13x02= 26 - AAA, 222, 4444, 999 (32 cuts >= 2 Points)
14x00= 00 - TTTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKK (Minimum Hand, 14 Cuts = 0 Points)
46 ___ 110

= = =

Keep (A 2 Q K) Toss (7 9)

Expected Hand Average is 108 DIV 46 = 2.348
Expected Crib Value (Hessel) is 5.500
Total is -3.152

04x07= 28 - 3333 (Maximum Hand, 4 cuts = 7 Points)
03x06= 18 - 222 (Maximum Hand, 7 cuts >= 6 Points)
08x04= 32 - 4444, 5555, (15 cuts >= 4 Points)
04x03= 12 - JJJJ (19 cuts >= 3 Points)
09x02= 18 - AAA, QQQ, KKK (28 cuts >= 2 Points)
18x00= 00 - 6666, 777, 8888, 999, TTTT (Minimum Hand, 18 Cuts = 0 Points)
46 ___ 108

= = =

Hessel Data:

C:\Users\jqt>ds A279QK
Pone/dealer discard info (Hessel) for cribbage hand: KQ972A

Held HnAve Dscd PnAve Delta PnTot
---- ----- ---- ----- ----- -----
Q72A 2.09 K9 4.18 0.08 -2.10
K72A 2.09 Q9 4.24 0.10 -2.15
972A 2.39 KQ 4.59 0.03 -2.20
Q92A 2.13 K7 4.38 0.05 -2.25
K92A 2.13 Q7 4.51 0.10 -2.38
Q972 1.83 KA 4.36 0.06 -2.53
K972 1.83 QA 4.49 0.10 -2.66
Q97A 1.78 K2 4.55 0.06 -2.77
K97A 1.78 Q2 4.69 0.11 -2.91
KQ72 1.83 9A 4.81 0.18 -2.98
KQ7A 1.78 92 4.92 0.14 -3.14
KQ2A 2.35 97 5.50 0.10 -3.16
KQ92 1.83 7A 5.03 0.13 -3.21
KQ9A 1.83 72 5.23 0.15 -3.40
KQ97 1.74 2A 5.15 0.10 -3.41


After Toss (7 9) it may appear that we have more 'immediate' winners, but if we first assume that we shall peg Two Holes AND DO SO MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, then it becomes a very close race indeed! In fact, if we peg Three Holes, the after Toss (7 9) we only have Fifteen Cuts that gives us Four (or more) Points, while after Toss (Q K) we have Nineteen Cuts that give us Four (or more) Points. Furthermore, Toss (7 9) has four more Cuts that produce a Zero-Point Hand than Toss (Q K)!

The fact that we hold a much better pegging hand after Toss (Q K) gives this particular choice some real merit, in spite of the harsh fact that virtually NO Cuts will guarantee that we shall go out and WIN without any pegging. But should we assume Zero Pegging or should we assign some VALUE to the fact that we do tend to AVERAGE to peg Two Holes as Pone.
Eolus619 says: Thx John for this effort …insighfull & informative ….pegging two near the end is a BIG chore ..especially when dealer is all out defense trying to prevent Pone from doing so ..
JQT says: If I said that every time I looked out my window for my entire lifetime, that I tend to see an AVERAGE of about Two Birds, should you bet that if I now take a look that I'll see NONE?
Eolus619 says: depends on the season and time of day …in this cribbage board position …dead of winter and late in the day ..but your analogy is clever
Eolus619 says: and dealt hand I might add
JQT says: Assuming we Toss (Q K) today, after the King Cut, if we lead a 7 Card, we can score Two Points after Twenty Replies (AAA, 222, 6666, 777, 8888, 999) or 20 DIV 45 equals 0.444 or about 44% of those possible responses by the Dealer. Of course, perhaps the majority of these will be avoided if possible, such as (6666, 777, 8888, 999). But the Dealer will likely also avoid responding with (3333, 4444, 5555) and therefore those beneficial reply odds might more realistically be Six Cards out of Thirty-Three or around 18%. If we cannot score, we'll likely unload our 9 Card, and thus we'll be half way through the pegging, still holding TWO High-Value Pegging Card, an Ace and a Deuce. The odds that we shall NOT score at all are therefore quite low, I believe. It would be a highly-beneficial exercise to pull these six cards from a deck, and pull the King Cut Card, and then deal out any six of the remaining cards, and discard AS IF you were the Dealer here. Then lead a 7 Card and try to hold Pone to Zero Points Pegging. Then repeat the shuffle of those 45 remaining cards, and try it again, and again. Your questions about my "average" statement of seeing an average of two birds each day are good ones! What if I lived near a concrete parking lot with not even a song sparrow stopping by, but it was beneath a migration route: I might see a thousand geese fly overhead just ONE day a year, and meet the definition of seeing an AVERAGE of two birds per day! Therefore, in Cribbage, it would be nice to know the mean and the standard deviation, and just how often Pone is held to Zero Points Pegging. Those tables toward the end of "Play Winning Cribbage" by Colvert are very good for ascertaining a wealth of exactly this kind of information, and RAS covers such data in his Cribbage Video Series. Many players (and people!) tend to use remembrance of catastrophic data rather than employ probabilities, but Cribbage is a probabilistic endeavor! If we assume we shall not peg here because we recall those times we lost without pegging, and retain the wrong hand, losing 90% of the time (or even winning!) the game won't teach us anything; even if we choose the best discard, we may lose 80% of the time and think we did it incorrectly. This is one of the main reasons why Cribbage is so difficult: proper play is sometimes only rewarded by a deep understanding of the odds, statistics, and probabilities. And sometimes, winning or losing can reinforce bad behavior, too! Yesterday we had a puzzle in which the SECOND-BEST answer still wins 60% of the time, according to the computer program. Those players who never grasp the probabilistic nature of why it is possible to boost that to over 65% will still be rewarded six out of ten times for NOT understanding that there is a better solution! Therefore, self-correcting behavior (which occurs when for example we learn to ride a bike or drive a car) is not always the case in a probabilistic game like Cribbage. That knowledge must come from real study and deep understanding.
zeke76
1394 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:41 AM
Yuck
RubyTuesday
912 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:00 AM
“drowning sounds”
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:19 AM
Keep high-low, toss middle. Hope for a low card cut. Slim pickins'.
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:37 AM
Went wide to have out cards and possible runs cut.

MiketheExpert
1120 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 10:17 AM
Terrible hand, have to go with the QK toss here. What you're throwing into the opponent's crib is obviously not what is important here, but it is 100% on what cards you are retaining. the (A 2 7 9) gives by far the best opportunities for pegging (face value cards are lowest return on investment here), and you are most likely going to need some pegs no matter what is cut here. There is no cut that will give you 7 hand points, but you may be able to win with a 4 or 5 pt hand if keep the right cards that will give you a chance to peg a couple. (A 2 Q K) is frankly not very good, even with the wide separation of low and high cards. What are your odds of even pegging 2 pts with this hand? Not very good at all. You will have to lead one of the face cards and hope he pairs it so you have a shot at getting 31...Do you think he is likely to do that from this position? You have to keep your 7 in order to lead it here in my opinion, and then you are going to follow that with the 9, 2, or A depending on his next response. Ideally you'll be able to retain your 2 small cards for a score at the end, but this is really an ugly hand to get at this stage, so you are going to need some fortune here no matter what you hold if dealer plays the proper way here.
MiketheExpert says: If you end up getting a 3 cut, you may regret it if you don't keep the (Q K), but this is really the only cut that have to have a legitimate chance with this keep, while this same 3 will still give you a legitimate shot with the (A 2 7 9) even though you are only holding 5 pts, plus there are quite a few additional cuts in which you will still have some chances.
JQT says: Very Good Explanation, Mike!
MiketheExpert says: Thanks JQT. One other comment, and that is with the 2 cut. This is the one you may actually regret more by not keeping (A 2 Q K), because NOW the difference is you would be holding 6 pts as opposed to only 2, and the game is essentially over for you. But even if you think about this worst case scenario, you still DO need to peg 1 point, EVEN with keeping the Q K. This is very doable, but REALLY speaking, it is not that much easier to peg 1 point than 2 points out of this. So most of the time you will peg 2, or NONE, rather than be limited to ONLY 1...but there are still some scenarios on particular dealer holdings that will give you the 1 point go. And, obviously with the 3 cut it will then be an automatic win with your 7 hand score, but in this case you still have a fairly good chance with our choice of retention. So I would actually rate the deuce as the most regrettable cut with our choice today, but suffice it to say, it is very difficult to cover EVERY single base with this, and it still leaves you by far your best chances to win taking every cut possibility into consideration.
JQT says: Our human tendency is often to catastrophize or embellish history: Yes, four Treys produce a WIN after Toss (7 9), but as I showed above, Toss (7 9) has four more Cuts that produce a Zero-Point Hand than Toss (Q K)! This means we need to dig deeper, as you have indicated.
Coeurdelion
5593 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:46 PM
I think it's between A-2-7-9 and A-2-Q-K:

A-2-7-9: Scores 5pts with 3333, 8888 = 8pts and 4pts with 5555, 6666, 777 = 11 cuts.

A-2-Q-K: Scores 7pts with 3333 = 4 cuts, 6pts with 222 = 3 cuts and 4pts with 4444, 5555 = 8 cuts.

A-2-Q-K has four cuts to score enough and three more to take you within pegging 1pt.

So I'll throw 7-9.
HalscribCLX
5316 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:52 PM
At 114-113* playing a BOLD strategy for the pegging the Win %s are:

Offense_________Win %
A-2-7-9_________24.4
A-2-Q-K_________20.9
A-2-9-K_________20.6
A-2-9-Q_________19.7
A-2-7-K_________16.8


After the K cut I'll lead the 7 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
7____________________1.80
9____________________1.61
2____________________1.12
A____________________1.10
Ras2829
5152 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:36 PM
HalscribCLX analysis directly above makes all the points that I would wish to express. Top to bottom that works for me as just an echo this day.
travelingman2019
513 votes

Joined: December 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 11:46 PM
this one seems to be the only way to go in this scenario......you will have 0 pts in hand, and the magic 11 combo 92 is there....but the cut given puts waiting for the next game......best rec is to get as many peg pts as you can get to save your pt spread if your card is good.