June 9, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by bearbait
114-113*  ?
60%
21%
6%
4%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 248
JQT
3111 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 3:03 AM
Needing Seven Points as Pone to WIN, today we shall probably lose.

But we can still try to optimize our chances, and I believe this comes after Toss (Q K). This discard decision should still allow a few Cuts to give us some remote form of hope.

The important thing is to not make our situation any worse than it already is, and to at least give this remote shot our best effort, although after the King Cut, it looks dire indeed.

I'll lead the 7 Card and peg as much as possible.
james500
2884 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 3:12 AM
Two thirds or so of the deck are not X cards, so I've a fair chance of a helpful cut.

7 lead is covered by both the Ace and the 9, but I doubt Dealer will take the bait.
mrob2199
678 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 3:21 AM
I think this hold gives us the most chances to peg over the finish line-a 3 puts us out,a 2 leaves us 1 peg short,and a 4 or 5 cut leave us 3 short
Rosemarie44
1894 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:35 AM
I believe this would be the best hold even though we will probably lose. A cut of 3 (3333) gives us 7 points that we need to go out and a cut of 2 (222) gives us 6 points requiring us to peg 1 and a cut of 4 (4444) or 5 (5555) gives us 4 points leaves us 3 short.
Just a repeat of Rob's comments I see.
dec
5280 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 4:11 AM
Seeing opponent is going to play D the best they can lets go for the game cut hold. Pegging not impossible either count could be twenty five and perhaps they hold a three. Lead the King. dec
JCM
642 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Wednesday 4:23 AM
Correction to yesterday's tourney announcement. Its start time is 4pm(today), not 11am, as I said yesterday. I have to help my wife out with a doctor's appointment at 4pm - so probably I will not be at the tournament.

Edited announcement:

Heads-up:

Monica's tournament today(June 9) 4pm PDT

Fun, free, 6 games.

Hard to win - but a nice group there, usually 70-ish players.

Go to bracketjd.com to sign up
Gougie00
4669 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 4:34 AM
Put a fork in me, I'm done. Looking for a 3.
jmudge
203 votes

Joined: July 2020

   
Wednesday 5:12 AM
Ugh.
Jazzselke
1817 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Wednesday 5:24 AM
"On a wing and a prayer".
dec
5280 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 5:43 AM
Joey Scarbury... Believe it or not . dec
Eolus619
372 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Wednesday 6:21 AM
First things first..Mike Fetch earned Gold last night in ACC 9 game and Jazz went 6-3 to earn 12 points. Congrats to both. Also safe travels and GL to all those playing in this weekends tourney. Lots of CHOD involved. As to this puzzle, need to play my position first. Tossing the Q-K gets cut help from 9/13 ranks but maxes out @ 5. Sending the 7-9 gets cut help from 8/13 , but can earn a max of seven. Pegging for two @ the end tough to do. Dylan song..it’s not dark yet but it’s gettin there.
JQT
3111 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 6:24 AM
June 9, 2021 Hand Mapping - j q t -

(114-113*) (Ah 2d 7c 9s Qc Kh)

Today let's compare the two most obvious choices that might allow us to cover the spread of Seven Holes and WIN as Pone. We see that it's likely a battle between Toss (Q K) and Toss (7 9). The actual Crib Values and even the NET Expected Values mean absolutely nothing if we don't get our Seven Points, because the Dealer is very likely to WIN from Hole 113 if we don't get there FIRST with First Hand Show.

The Knowns: As Pone, we tend to average pegging about Two Holes, and we should see that after Toss (Q K), we can retain a slightly better pegging hand. And if we hold this better pegging hand, we should tend to peg those average Two Holes more often than not!

Thus, we might wish to look for the discard choice that can BEST give us AT LEAST Five Points in a reliable fashion, and not simply seek the MOST points. Let's look at the map:


Keep (A 2 7 9) Toss (Q K)

Expected Hand Average is 110 DIV 46 = 2.391
Expected Crib Value (Hessel) is 4.590
Total is -2.199

08x05= 40 - 3333, 8888 (Maximum Hand, 8 cuts = 5 Points)
11x04= 44 - 5555, 6666, 777 (19 cuts >= 4 Points)
13x02= 26 - AAA, 222, 4444, 999 (32 cuts >= 2 Points)
14x00= 00 - TTTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKK (Minimum Hand, 14 Cuts = 0 Points)
46 ___ 110

= = =

Keep (A 2 Q K) Toss (7 9)

Expected Hand Average is 108 DIV 46 = 2.348
Expected Crib Value (Hessel) is 5.500
Total is -3.152

04x07= 28 - 3333 (Maximum Hand, 4 cuts = 7 Points)
03x06= 18 - 222 (Maximum Hand, 7 cuts >= 6 Points)
08x04= 32 - 4444, 5555, (15 cuts >= 4 Points)
04x03= 12 - JJJJ (19 cuts >= 3 Points)
09x02= 18 - AAA, QQQ, KKK (28 cuts >= 2 Points)
18x00= 00 - 6666, 777, 8888, 999, TTTT (Minimum Hand, 18 Cuts = 0 Points)
46 ___ 108

= = =

Hessel Data:

C:\Users\jqt>ds A279QK
Pone/dealer discard info (Hessel) for cribbage hand: KQ972A

Held HnAve Dscd PnAve Delta PnTot
---- ----- ---- ----- ----- -----
Q72A 2.09 K9 4.18 0.08 -2.10
K72A 2.09 Q9 4.24 0.10 -2.15
972A 2.39 KQ 4.59 0.03 -2.20
Q92A 2.13 K7 4.38 0.05 -2.25
K92A 2.13 Q7 4.51 0.10 -2.38
Q972 1.83 KA 4.36 0.06 -2.53
K972 1.83 QA 4.49 0.10 -2.66
Q97A 1.78 K2 4.55 0.06 -2.77
K97A 1.78 Q2 4.69 0.11 -2.91
KQ72 1.83 9A 4.81 0.18 -2.98
KQ7A 1.78 92 4.92 0.14 -3.14
KQ2A 2.35 97 5.50 0.10 -3.16
KQ92 1.83 7A 5.03 0.13 -3.21
KQ9A 1.83 72 5.23 0.15 -3.40
KQ97 1.74 2A 5.15 0.10 -3.41


After Toss (7 9) it may appear that we have more 'immediate' winners, but if we first assume that we shall peg Two Holes AND DO SO MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, then it becomes a very close race indeed! In fact, if we peg Three Holes, the after Toss (7 9) we only have Fifteen Cuts that gives us Four (or more) Points, while after Toss (Q K) we have Nineteen Cuts that give us Four (or more) Points. Furthermore, Toss (7 9) has four more Cuts that produce a Zero-Point Hand than Toss (Q K)!

The fact that we hold a much better pegging hand after Toss (Q K) gives this particular choice some real merit, in spite of the harsh fact that virtually NO Cuts will guarantee that we shall go out and WIN without any pegging. But should we assume Zero Pegging or should we assign some VALUE to the fact that we do tend to AVERAGE to peg Two Holes as Pone.
zeke76
946 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Wednesday 6:41 AM
Yuck
RubyTuesday
735 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Wednesday 7:00 AM
“drowning sounds”
joekayak
1397 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Wednesday 8:19 AM
Keep high-low, toss middle. Hope for a low card cut. Slim pickins'.
SallyAnn3
369 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Wednesday 9:37 AM
Went wide to have out cards and possible runs cut.

MiketheExpert
76 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Wednesday 10:17 AM
Terrible hand, have to go with the QK toss here. What you're throwing into the opponent's crib is obviously not what is important here, but it is 100% on what cards you are retaining. the (A 2 7 9) gives by far the best opportunities for pegging (face value cards are lowest return on investment here), and you are most likely going to need some pegs no matter what is cut here. There is no cut that will give you 7 hand points, but you may be able to win with a 4 or 5 pt hand if keep the right cards that will give you a chance to peg a couple. (A 2 Q K) is frankly not very good, even with the wide separation of low and high cards. What are your odds of even pegging 2 pts with this hand? Not very good at all. You will have to lead one of the face cards and hope he pairs it so you have a shot at getting 31...Do you think he is likely to do that from this position? You have to keep your 7 in order to lead it here in my opinion, and then you are going to follow that with the 9, 2, or A depending on his next response. Ideally you'll be able to retain your 2 small cards for a score at the end, but this is really an ugly hand to get at this stage, so you are going to need some fortune here no matter what you hold if dealer plays the proper way here.
Coeurdelion
4584 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 3:46 PM
I think it's between A-2-7-9 and A-2-Q-K:

A-2-7-9: Scores 5pts with 3333, 8888 = 8pts and 4pts with 5555, 6666, 777 = 11 cuts.

A-2-Q-K: Scores 7pts with 3333 = 4 cuts, 6pts with 222 = 3 cuts and 4pts with 4444, 5555 = 8 cuts.

A-2-Q-K has four cuts to score enough and three more to take you within pegging 1pt.

So I'll throw 7-9.
HalscribCLX
4322 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 3:52 PM
At 114-113* playing a BOLD strategy for the pegging the Win %s are:

Offense_________Win %
A-2-7-9_________24.4
A-2-Q-K_________20.9
A-2-9-K_________20.6
A-2-9-Q_________19.7
A-2-7-K_________16.8


After the K cut I'll lead the 7 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
7____________________1.80
9____________________1.61
2____________________1.12
A____________________1.10
Ras2829
4131 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 9:36 PM
HalscribCLX analysis directly above makes all the points that I would wish to express. Top to bottom that works for me as just an echo this day.
travelingman2019
422 votes

Joined: December 2018

   
Wednesday 11:46 PM
this one seems to be the only way to go in this scenario......you will have 0 pts in hand, and the magic 11 combo 92 is there....but the cut given puts waiting for the next game......best rec is to get as many peg pts as you can get to save your pt spread if your card is good.