Friday 3:06 AM

Want to slow the dealer to retake the advantage.

   

Friday 3:38 AM

Starter card doesn't help us but it does dealer with our toss of 9-K which I had hoped will balk their crib. Seventeen cuts increase the value of the hand to 8 or 12 points. Two cuts (77) gives this hand and A-7-7-9 twelve points. Four cuts (8888) gives this hand 14 points. Expected averages favor A-3-7-7 by almost 1/2 point.

   

Friday 4:20 AM

Regardless of strategy chosen to include the pegging, this keep has the edge for three reasons. Potential hand size is greater by about .6 of a point, pegs better whether choosing offense or defense, and potential crib size is smaller. Best thing we can do this hand is to slow the dealer.

   

Friday 4:22 AM

Once in a great while that might turn into a six point crib. A,2,3,4,5,7,8 a few cuts to hope for dec

   

Friday 4:32 AM

I didn't feel like an 8 would be cut. Tossing the dealer a 3 might prove disasterous. Lead the 3.

   

Friday 4:46 AM

Playing offense would hold A779; like the balking toss here with dealer at 43. We will be dealing from at least 45.

   

Friday 5:11 AM

Unhelpful (I hoped) throw of 9K to dealer.

   

Friday 5:11 AM

With the gang above. One of strongest balking discards to opponent’s crib. Let’s try to slow them down.

   

Friday 5:11 AM

Dan sums it up pretty good.

   

Friday 5:52 AM

pencil out the cycle averages and you will see current dealer retains a slight positional advance by having the deck 1st @ the threshold of CPZ 3 & 4. Balk the crib with a 9-K. Keep the connectors and start with four. Get cut help from 7/13 ranks

   

Friday 6:09 AM

As stated above, keep the points, the peggers, and hopefully balk opponent's crib.

   

Friday 7:25 AM

What I would say has been already said. I think there must be a parrot in this room :-)

   

Friday 7:41 AM

There looks like there is really only 2 options worth considering here, either you are going to toss (3 K), or (9 K). I suppose there are certain situations where you might feasibly look at the (A K) toss, but I don't believe it is warranted in this situation. Dealer is JUST short of where he would like to be, but after we are dealt these cards, we are going to be hard-pressed to take advantage here. The (A 7 7 9) keep does not offer too many additional cuts, however it will yield the maximum if you happen to cut an 8 here (14 points). The (A 3 7 7) keep only has a maximum score of 8, however there are a few more cuts to improve. So, it boils down to which is more important here...going for a maximum score, or preventing your opponent's desired movement up the board. I think I would rather score a modest amount with a not-so-good hand while limiting the scoring of opponent, than scoring more, but at the same time pushing up the pegs of our opponent more. Also, (A 3 7 7) will give you a slightly better DEFENSIVE hand, although it is not likely to score as many TOTAL pegs as the (A 7 7 9). But in order to score a lot, you most likely have to give up a lot as well, and herein lies the problem. So I will choose to keep the more defensive (A 3 7 7). After the disappointing K cut, I will focus on trying to minimize his score, and we cannot get our deficit back all at once. I am not a fan of leading the 7 here...Even if he so happens to pair this lead, I'm not even sure I'd be comfortable playing the 3rd 7 here to make the count 21...I REALLY cannot afford for him to play a 4th 7, plus there is a very good chance he will come back with a score. I think I will go ahead and lead the A here, and play off as much as possible to try and prevent any large scores here.

   

Friday 7:51 AM

Agree with most of my colleagues today

   

Friday 9:05 AM

Okay, it's about time I contributed a few puzzles to "Hand of the Day" in 2021, and so I recently placed around half a dozen or so puzzles into the queue, and this is the first of them.

It's an easy one, as all who have posted comments thus far today have commented upon, but we must take notice that the votes still include a lot of folks who will Toss (3 K) from such an arrangement.

Some of the other puzzles I have 'placed into the hopper' for June and July may not be as simple and straightforward as this one, but even though we are starting out easy, it's worth seeing that as of 11a ET this morning, nearly 50% of the votes have been tallied in favor of Toss (3 K), and only just slightly over 40% of the votes are for Toss (9 K).

Hopefully, many of those 50% will take the time to learn; and yet realistically, you should be aware that many of those players are your Opponents! If nothing else, let this basic puzzle show you that your time spent studying and learning Cribbage, "This Game of Ours," can and will ... and do pay off.

As a very basic and simple puzzle, I like this one, because it does not involve any Endgame Battle, and after either main discard choice, both hands shall tend to average about Six Points. But the Relative Position does take place near the Second Street 'par' Hole 44, and there are notable differences in the two major discards.

Toss (9 K) is much safer in the Opponent's Crib, and thus we'll end up with perhaps half a point better Relative Score after this discard. That isn't much, but since most games tend to average about Nine Deals, making the proper choice such as this will often add about Four or Five NET Points to your overall Game Score. And that is significant!

What I would especially take note of with this simple puzzle is not what might be "missed" if an 8 Card does indeed turn up as the Cut Card, which will of course occur 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 or precisely 8.7% of the time. But notice also that a 5 Card Cut will also tend to occur EXACTLY as often.

The Dealer gets to 'use' the Cut Card TWICE: once for the Hand, and once for the Crib, and so unless we are in an Endgame Battle, a 5 Card Cut can usually help the Dealer more than Pone in Cribbage. But if we Keep (A 3 7 7), we have what I have often called: "Five Card Insurance." The fact that a 5 Card Cut DOUBLES our Hand and gives us Eight Points is comforting to know, and it protects us from falling behind catastrophically right as we 'straddle' the Second Street 'par' Hole 44.

The fact that we are protected against what can hurt us the most, and the fact that our Discard Decision will ALSO produce a result with a higher Expected Average, makes this a clear-cut case for Toss (9 K), and this is due to several combined factors.

If you understand probability, you will understand that if you Toss (9 K) at this position in this game and in this scenario, and do it numerous times over your Cribbage Career, you will gain an average of about a half of a point each time you do it. The beauty of Cribbage is that you do not even have to understand the mathematics of probabilistic theory in order to make the proper discard, as long as you TRUST AND UNDERSTAND that it WORKS and that it is correct and that it can be learned.

   

Friday 3:54 PM

I think it's a choice between A-3-7-7 (9-K) and A-7-7-9 (3-K):

A-3-7-7: 4pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.03) = 0pt

A-7-7-9: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.48) = -½pt

Potential:

A-3-7-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 5555, 77, 8888 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 7/8/12pts with AAA, 2222, 4444, 5555, 77, 8888 = 21 cuts.

A-7-7-9: Improves with AAA, 5555, 6666, 77, 8888, 999 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 77, 8888 = 9 cuts.

Position:

Opponent is 1pt short of 2nd street positional hole as Dealer and we're well behind so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

A-3-7-7 has two low catds and two middle cards while it also has a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

A-3-7-7 is better for starting value by ½pt and it also has more cuts for improvement. A-7-7-9 has a higher maximum at 14pts but A-3-7-7 has 21 cuts for 7-12pts compared to only 9 cuts for 8-14pts for A-7-7-9. A-3-7-7 also should peg better so I'll throw 9-K.

   

Friday 3:57 PM

At 41-43* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total_____W6 %____W7 %
A-3-7-7____6.04+(-2.67)+(-4.12)=(-0.75)___30.7____40.5
A-7-7-9____5.96+(-2.52)+(-4.54)=(-1.10)___29.4____37.9

Defense________L6 %____L7 %
A-3-7-7_________39.0____40.8
A-7-7-9_________40.6____43.7

A-3-7-7 is 0.35pt higher for expected averages and appreciably better for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 9-K to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead a 7 and play Defense:

Lead___________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
7_____________________(-2.32)
A_____________________(-2.39)
3_____________________(-2.41)