June 12, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by JQT
47*-63  ?
39%
30%
11%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
Total votes: 188
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 4:38 AM
I believe position requires. bold strategy with pone sixteen holes ahead and in line to be first at the next CPZ of 69-73. Keep the peggers with the 2 card eleven and toss the 5-K to our crib.
Rosemarie44 says: Guess I need to review Ras's videos.
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 4:41 AM
The most we can hold with this mess is four points. May as well toss the 5K to myself to generate some crib points…along with a prayer. A279 aren’t too bad for pegging.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 5:01 AM
2-7 isn't too exciting, but I'll keep all four points in hand.

Quick query, should I reply to a led X with my 5 from the 5-X-A sixteen, or X reply from the X-A eleven? Is it realistic for Pone to have 6 points or fewer?
JQT says: I usually like to play the *safest* "card in common" to both the "Magic Eleven" and the "Sweet Sixteen," which in this case is our Ace, although I might PAIR a King Lead. And Ace reply rids us of the "Lone Ace," and keeps BOTH of the aforementioned pegging plays alive (see my expanded comments on the pegging beneath my posting below).
mrob2199
1436 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 5:14 AM
This is one of those hands where you just have to take what little you have and make the best of it-the A59K should give us at least 6 and provides pegging flexibility to hold pone down as much as possible
Eolus619 says: morning ..if Pone lead a three ..dealer reply is? thx
mrob2199 says: Bruce I would have to gauge the cut and the pones reaction to it-normally I would play an ace on a 3 lead and put the ball in the pones court-but with him at 63 already I don’t wabt to get into a pegging war-caution is the best course of action here-so my answer is variable lol
Eolus619 says: wait a minute ..I AM the one with the variable pegging strategy..but thank you for your reply
Eolus619 says: on a more serious note…i would have thought a K…but all that you have said you evaluate is valuable for me ..ty
RubyTuesday
915 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 5:44 AM
I’m with Rosemarie and Goatmen here, 5 K to my crib.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:53 AM
Hard to be optimistic with this hand and being 16 down. I held the 4 points with a shot at 10 if a 5 is cut, or a chance of 8 or 6.

Its supposed to be a gentleman's game, so smile politely. Sometimes it just isn't your day.

It was 96 last Monday, and 48 last night with rain in Northern Massachusetts. It seems Mother Nature is is off her meds.
Eolus619 says: Hello, from the West which is in the midst of a terrible extended drought. Lake Mead , created by the famous Hoover dam, reached an all time low point in elevation this past Wednesday. Life style changes now seem inevitable.
Gougie00 says: Just curious but has California's water consumption risen? All that water has to go somewhere.
Eolus619 says: hi..long and involved story starting in 1921..the short answer is yes ..more consumption in the SW and Az. and Ca. in particlular from the very beginning , by mistaken analysis of the historical snow pack, the Colorado river water was over allocated ..more was awarded than was ever in the river after 1921 ..the bulk of the consumption goes to agriculture..but massive population growth in the SW has increased total consumption for sure
Eolus619 says: the last BIG snow pack in the Colorado River headwaters was in 1985…
Eolus619 says: seven states have rights to river water usage..it will be contentious
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 6:12 AM
Can't see a better option. Most points this way.
mfetchCT425
1400 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 6:16 AM
Like Rob’s ideology above today. Per small hand rule, I don’t think we break up the points we have today. Keep the 4 and hope we catch something with the cut in either the hand or crib.
Eolus619 says: Mike has made an excellent point about the small hand rule & Ras’s discussion about it can be found here http://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen10.asp The closing paragraph in his tutorial is …. “Play the game without a favorable starter card. You're likely to miss more cuts than you receive and don't believe you can improve your cutting ability. Most strong tournament players plan their hand, strategy, etc. without the benefit of the starter card. If the starter card is favorable, that is an unplanned bonus.”
Rosemarie44 says: Hi Bruce, I learned that rule a long time ago. I never base my decisions on retention and discard knowing the starter card.
Eolus619 says: a valuable lesson for us all…not surprised you learned it early in your playing
Eolus619
1343 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 6:21 AM
ah JQT..you have us hunting for the best part of a bad bargain. Dealer board position is dire with current Pone likely to deal first above 70. Thinking my options are ..toss 2-7 to keep A-5-9-K. This hand starts with four and gets cut help from 8/13 ranks. Two more ranks , a deuce or seven immediately help my crib. Tossing the 5-K & keeping A-2-7-9 starts with zero and gets cut help from Ace thru nine…and all face/tens help the crib. Don’t like starting with zero in my hand and no cut gets me more then five points in hand when tossing 5-K. Holding an Ace and five should be ok for pegging. Trying to eke out at least 12 total points. This hand plus three more and current dealer could easily end up in the area of 89-99*……GRIM
fentesk says: For this hold, I believe we can say the hand + crib combined gets help (or at least guaranteed points) from every starter rank (for what little that's worth today). The four that don't help the hand directly (2, 3, 7, 8) all guarantee at least 2 in the 2-7 crib (the 3 may not be part of the points, but no two other cards can make a 2-3-7 trio score zero). Small victories I suppose.
Eolus619 says: very good point on the three
Eolus619 says: upon further review ..the nine adds to the hold and the eight to the crib..12/13 and the three as you pointed out ..thx
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 6:25 AM
oops I did a Sally here meant the nine instead of the seven better watch my discarding tomorrow. dec
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 8:07 AM
Decided to put the K5 in crib and hope for better things there. We are seriously behind - have to be aggressive now.

Heads-up:

Monica's tournament tomorrow(Sunday Jun 13) 11am PDT.

Fun, free, 6 games.

Hard to win - but a friendly gang there - 70-ish players, typically.

Go to bracketjd.com to sign up.

JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 8:20 AM
We begin with RAS Class and the "Small Hand Rule" because, even though we might sadly be trying to salvage the SKUNK today (and maybe especially because of this), we only make things worse sometimes by trying to pull a 'Hail Mary' when plain old solid discarding tactics often work best.

Our primary thought today should therefore be simple and twofold: "Is this Hand an 'Exception to the Rule?'" and "Does this Position call for a Special Pegging Hand?" The answer of course is an affirmative "NO" in both cases, and therefore we Toss (2 7) automatically.

ACC 'Small Hand Rule' - http://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen10.asp

RAS Class Week 3 - Part 01B: Review of Small Hand Rule: https://youtu.be/b-qwT6Nsie4

And if you've never taken the classes, maybe it's best to start at the beginning.

RAS Class 1 - Part 1: https://youtu.be/NXXnmsNkgVg

And Please, REFER to the SLIDES when taking the Class! It's best to either load all of these on a separate laptop screen, and/or print them out ahead of time. Or maybe you can get lucky and get RAS to mail you his entire Cribbage Teaching Binder as he did for me in 2012, and then spend the better part of 18 months before sending it back to him. Many of these original pages are NOT in electronic form, and it took nearly a month for me to finally complete making an entire series of copies using my duplex laser printer. I suppose that, in addition to 'vashoncribbage,' I am now a good backup source if those originals ever get lost or misplaced!

https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/strategy.html

We now also have well over a dozen years of data right here on "Hand of the Day"! If you search through the archives, you can find discussions about virtually any Cribbage topic, and Dealer Discards come up frequently. For some very good sources of Cribbage Information that I have posted, for example, try looking under the entry for February 18, 2012:

https://www.dailycribbagehand.org/show.php?date=2012/02/18
Eolus619 says: well said on the Ras class..each video segment is approximately ten minutes…so paying attention should NOT be a problem
JQT says: This is a fairly decent Dealer Pegging Hand: If Pone leads an Ace, I'd probably reply with the 5 Card, just to be rid of it; if Pone can then make (15-2), then I can take a chance and PAIR the 9 Card and parry Pone, bringing the Count up to Twenty-Four. I'd probably also unload the 5 Card if a Deuce is led. After a Trey Lead by Pone, I would reply with the 9 Card, a 'percentage play' that another Trey is not being held, but also minimal damage if one or more is held. If Pone leads a 4 Card, I'll reply with the King, and if Pone scores (15-2), then I'll probably play the 9 Card to bring the Count up to Twenty-Four; when you see One Ace, often there are more! Having patience with Aces is often a rewarding enterprise in Cribbage. After a 5 Card Lead, I'll jump on the easy (15=2) with the King, and I'd probably also reply with the King after a 6 Card, 7 Card, 8 Card, and 9 Card Lead by Pone as well. After a Ten "T" Card, Jack, or Queen Lead, I'd probably reply with the Ace, since Pone may often lead such a card if he/she has all Ten Cards (or "X"), or maybe a combination of "Nickels and Dimes" such as (5 5 X X) or (5 X X X), and so I would attempt to grab (31=2). If they unloaded a 5 Card, bringing the Count up to Sixteen, then I'd play the 9 Card and hope to score (31=2) with either Pone's 5 Card or my own, followed by my Ace. If we face all Ten Cards (or "X"), then we can score (31=2) with certainty (maybe even with a PAIR!) followed by an easy (15=2). However, if Pone leads a King, I might risk PAIRING it right from the start, since it’s often led by Pone as a "Lone King" lead; if Pone has all Ten Cards (or "X"), I'll *still* get the (31=2), and if they hold "Nickels and Dimes" as above, I might even get a PAIR 'thrown in' for good measure!
Eolus619 says: John…a very valuable pegging perspective…in the future , if you have the time and inclination posting more about pegging leads and replies would be appreciated by those of us wandering in the cribbage pegging desert ..these 40 year walk about are tiring
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Like this puzzle as it reflects a common combination of cards found in live or electronic play; there are many opportunities to apply gained insight to actual game situations. This or the similar A-2-5-7-9-Q make frequent appearances.
JQT says: Most of our ideas merge well today: I would also play the 9 Card after a 6 Card Lead by Pone as you describe (below), and I messed this up (above). But I like to unload the Ace after a Ten, Jack, Queen Lead as I described, and so here is where we tend to differ today. More of my puzzles are coming soon; in July ... but also a few more in June; (Yes, even before the Next Full Moon!); some are difficult and will make people Hum a Tune; or perhaps Become as Crazy as a Loon.......
JCM says: Hi JQT - can you explain more why you reject the K5 discard to your own crib here? Thanks!
JQT says: The essence of what RAS has codified as the "Small Hand Rule" comes from careful analyses of just how much certain Dealer Discards can "boost" our Total "Hand plus Crib" and thus 'make up for' any possible sacrifice. For example, Toss (5 5) can 'make up for' a sacrifice of Four Points! Most of those other "Top Tier" discards such as Toss (2 3) and Toss (5 J) and even including Toss (5 X) can 'make up for' a loss or sacrifice of Two Points. Today, we can hold a Hand of Four Points with Keep (A 5 9 K), and in order to Toss (5 K), we must begin with a Hand of Zero Points! That means we shall exceed the sacrifice limit of Two Points, which applies to about the Top Seven Dealer Discards. There are some exceptions to the "rule," but RAS determined that it does apply a huge percentage of the time. You just shall not tend to average 'making up' for those 'lost' points with a Toss (5 X) discard. And if we were really reaching for the highest maximum, we could probably do better a very small percentage of the time after Toss (7 9), which has a greater 9but still extremely remote) chance of scoring Sixteen Points in our Crib. But Toss (2 7) produces the best Expected Average of "Hand plus Crib" TOTAL, and it should also peg quite well.
JQT says: https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/uploads/5/6/7/4/56741021/chart_11.pdf
JCM says: Thanks, JQT! I missed that my keep began with 0 points - I really do need morning coffee before voting on these problems. I hadn't had any yet when I responded. That's one of the morals I take from this - aside from paying more attention to the small hand rule:-)
JQT says: Here's what often happens: We confuse the addition of 'static' points in Hand and Crib with "Sacrificial Points" when applying the "Small Hand Rule" and it happens frequently. The two concepts are different! I often look at the Hand plus Crib BEFORE the Cut as a general guideline, and if we discard either a Five Card, or two cards that 'add up' to Five, we KNOW that our Crib shall have at least Two Points. But don't compare this Toss (5 K) and its eventual (and certain) Two Points with the alternative Keep (A 5 9 K) of Four Points, and calculate that its difference of Two Points is meeting the Sacrifice Limit! When we apply the "Small Hand Rule," we just look at the potential "cost" of our alternate Hand, and what is the "cost" or the "sacrifice" in order to make the associated discard. And as you said, it goes from Four Points down to Zero Points: we've EXCEED the limit (unless we could stow two 5 Cards in there) if we Toss (5 K) today!
wasa
3019 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Saturday 9:35 AM
Keeping the points
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 10:19 AM
Small hand rule covers about 96% of all hands of less than 8 points. Apply it here for good results. Giving up four points in direct hand score to gain three points in crib. With a press agent like JQT, hardly a need for me to mention. Don't fret the crib with such hands. Dealer can do nothing to build the crib about half of all hands dealt. Those who just toss the two cards that don't work in the hand are right about half the time. That's not a bad average in this game of multiple decisions in every deal. Have to be in an offense mode to include the pegging and will likely be choosing an offense strategy for the rest of this game. Would play the Ace on leads of A, 2, 3, 7, and 9. Would 15-2 10, J, or Queen, and pair a King. Would make the count 14 on four lead; on a five lead, play the King for 15-2. Score 15-2 on a 6 lead and play off other middle card leads. Combined values (pegs, hand, and crib scores) favor this hold by about half point. That's about it.
MiketheExpert
1123 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 11:57 AM
So...just as my first comment. Although my holding reflects differently today, I agree with the people who say they should toss (2 7), because in the law of averages, keeping your 4 pts in this situation will give you the overall highest expected average when it comes to all 3 scores (hand, pegging, and crib). And I would not sacrifice 4 pts in hand score by tossing the (5 Q) here in order to gain what I believe would be slightly less than 3 pts as compared to the (2 7) toss....But, considering my situation is so dire anyway, I wanted to try the 3rd option here just for the heck of it and try to MAKE something happen...toss (7 9) and keep 2 pts (A 2 5 K), which gets help in the hand from 12/13 cuts, and also leaves better crib options than the (2 7). I figure I'm that far behind and with such a poor showing anyway, all be "damned", lol. And just because my throw will probably end in a better result with the cut of 3, doesn't make it the proper thing to do, okay! :)
MiketheExpert says: sorry, toss (5 Q) above I obviously meant toss (5 K)!
MiketheExpert says: Fair enough, that no one considered the (7 9) toss after all the results are in. After all, the expected averages are almost a full point lower than the (A 5 9 K) keep, which is about what I would have predicted...However, I will note that based on the HAL evaluation, it actually has the 2nd best overall stats for Win/Loss%, ahead of the (5 K) toss with the 0 pt keep. And, rightly speaking, no matter what you end up doing, you are already partially up the creek without a paddle so to speak! :) So just wanted to provide something different for a fresh perspective here...but not straying from the proven cribbage theories which DO work most of the time as all my fellow colleagues have duly noted today.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 5:12 PM
I think it's between A-5-9-K (2-7) and A-2-7-9 (5-K):

A-5-9-K: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 8pts

A-2-7-9: 0pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 6½pts

Potential:

A-5-9-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 8/10pts with AAA, 555, KKK = 9 cuts.

A-2-7-9: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 999 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 4/5pts with 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 = 18 cuts.

Position:

We're 3pts past 2nd street position hole and Pone is 3pts past where they need to be to reach 3rd street positional hole at 70 pts for next deal, on average. So I think I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg quite well but perhaps A-2-7-9 somewhat better as it has two low cards, a middle card and a high card and a magic eleven.

Summary:

A-5-9-K has a starting value 1½pts more than A-2-7-9 and A-5-9-K has more cuts for improvement and 9 cuts for 8/10pts. compared to 18 cuts for 4/5pts with A-2-7-9. Although A-2-7-9 should peg slightly better I'll keep the 4pts and throw 2-7.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:21 PM
At 47*-63 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %___W5 %
A-5-9-K____6.04+2.98+3.89=12.91____0.4____4.4
A-2-7-9____2.30+3.37+6.63=12.30____0.3____3.6
5-7-9-K____4.48+3.46+4.14=12.08____0.3____3.3
A-2-5-7____5.17+3.83+3.00=12.00____0.2____2.9
A-2-5-K____4.48+3.39+4.10=11.97____0.4____3.6
A-5-7-9____4.87+3.65+3.41=11.93____0.2____3.1

Offense_______L4 %___L5 %
A-5-9-K________22.5___61.3
A-2-7-9________23.5___62.5
5-7-9-K________24.4___63.6
A-2-5-7________25.6___65.0
A-2-5-K________23.9___63.0
A-5-7-9________24.3___63.5

A-5-9-K is best for expected averages by 0.61pt and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-7 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.