June 15, 2021
35% | |||||
33% | |||||
26% | |||||
2% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
| Total votes: 235 | |||||
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james500 3922 votes Joined: June 2013 |
Tuesday 3:38 AM
Want to keep the Jacks together, so I need to pick two from 2,4 and 7.
2-4 is tempting, but the 7 doesn't work with the Xs. 4-7 suffers a wee bit from negative delta as there are only three fours left in circulation. |
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JCM 910 votes Joined: April 2019 |
Tuesday 3:51 AM
Because of the negative delta involved in discarding 4-7 to own crib, I chose discard 2-7. |
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JCM 910 votes Joined: April 2019 |
Tuesday 4:00 AM
Heads-up:
Monica's tournament today(Tuesday Jun 15) 11am PDT. Fun, free, 6 games. Hard to win - but a friendly gang there - 70-ish players, typically. Go to bracketjd.com to sign up. Babs says: When signing up at bracketjd.com....
Today's tournament 11AM PDT is "Pilgrim's" Tournament. :o) Babs says: Come join the fun! |
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dec 6357 votes Joined: April 2008 |
Tuesday 4:28 AM
Keeping the four may be able to have a twelve or thirteen count to be able to parlay the Jacks. I was thinking of keeping four different ranks but still trying to play to win. If the count was 115 or higher I might have done that. dec |
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Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
Tuesday 4:34 AM
It was between tossing 2-4 or 2-7 for me. Although 2-4 is valued higher, this hand has more cuts for 12 or 13 points. |
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nieuwrode 162 votes Joined: October 2020 |
Tuesday 4:51 AM
At this point I think there is no way to reasonably win the game. However, if you are playing for points over a set of games, then go for it. Just keep them from winning before your counting? |
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zeke76 1395 votes Joined: August 2018 |
Tuesday 5:15 AM
We can't win. I'm just trying to peg a few points to avoid the skunk. If instead, you are doing total points over a few games like nieuwrode says, I'd hold the jacks and 2. |
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Gougie00 5729 votes Joined: March 2008 |
Tuesday 5:57 AM
Surprising that so many chose 2-7. I chose 4-7 because I think the closer to the middle is the best. Eolus619 says: Dan ..just to follow up on the drought and water shortage in the SW conversation we had last week. It certainly involves more people using more water but it also has been the driest 12 months in the last 126 years.. If you are inclined, here is an article that covers the crisis.
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-environment/2021/06/10/lake-mead-declines-new-low-colorado-river-crisis-deepens-arizona-drought/7621138002/ |
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MiketheExpert 1121 votes Joined: April 2021 |
Tuesday 7:01 AM
Don't know. It doesn't really matter after the 3 J's, then I just kind of lost consciousness. Just kidding, lol. But seriously, the game is essentially out of hand, so you are hoping 1.He is not able to count out on this deal, 2. Some serious prayers are next going to be answered going forward. So, give ourselves as much chance as possible to score the highest hand, and this would mean either keeping the 2 or 4 with the 3 J's. Which one? Well, we're going to be hard pressed to score a large crib with either toss really, but especially the (2 7). The pegging difference is fairly negligi ble, so just toss the "middle" (4 7), hope for a 3 or 5 cut and some unwarranted help from your opponent (you never know what he'll be forced to throw right..but if you are going to get some insane toss like 5 5 in your crib, he had better be counting out as a rule). |
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JQT 4143 votes Joined: October 2008 |
Tuesday 7:41 AM
I'm afraid I shall not be making many friends today.
In some ways, this Discard Decision echoes the choice we had yesterday, to plant the 'small' cards in our Crib. But yesterday we had near-equal chances, while today our odds of winning are probably around 5%. At least, this is the Discard Choice that most of the computers will make. If they are all wrong, we need to under WHY. JQT says: That should end: "...we need to understand WHY." MiketheExpert says: Hi JQT. I might venture to say this is the best toss for "giving up" based on the computer's calculations, as this is technically a safer keep than keeping ONE low card in you hand with a bunch of face cards, as I believe I alluded to a few days ago in one of the example hands. There is a chance you could drive your opponent to count out if the small card happens to become trapped during the course of pegging. But in this case, I may follow some of the people's example and just keep a completely safe pegging hand (such as 2 4 7 J) if you are just planning on avoiding the skunk. JQT says: We can debate whether Keep (2 J J J) with a Trey Cut is better or worse for getting an additional Six Points in Hand than Keep (4 J J J) with an Ace Cut; but meanwhile, Toss (2 4) is helped in our Crib by a Trey Cut to become at least Five Points better, and alongside Pone's Discard, after Toss (2 4), our Crib might also be further helped by any number of additional Cuts as well. Remember: our Hand only possibly gets help from One Card (the Cut Card), while our Crib gets helped by Three Times As Many, or Three Cards: Two Cards discarded by Pone, as well as the Cut Card. Eolus619 says: JQT..good reminder that the crib is an extension of the hand for dealer ..what Pone lead cards would you reply to with a J ? Eolus619 says: or of easier to answer with your seven MiketheExpert says: True, we have more potential for getting help by MORE cards in the crib. But I think we are beyond the point where we are counting the 2 or 3 additional expected point helpers...We are either going to "mail" it in to avoid the skunk, or go as big as we possibly can in an effort to win, however unlikely that may be. So in this case, I'll take the six point help with only 1 cut (the 3), rather than the moderate amount of help (maybe 2 or 3 additional expected points) with more cuts. MiketheExpert says: Your point about the trey is good..I think it does guarantee at least 5 points in crib. So you are left with (7 J J J), 6 pts (or 7 if nobs) plus the 5 pt crib, which is a minimum of 11 pts before the pegs. However leaving the 2 in hand (2 J J J) gives you 12 or 13 pts in hand plus whatever else you may score in the crib after your toss of (4 7), with the 3 cut. Not exactly sure what your crib expectation for this would be (I anticipate around 3.5 pts), however you're still putting yourself ahead on average, so I still say either go for the maximum in an effort to win, or don't :) MiketheExpert says: At least it is my thinking that you are putting yourself ahead by doing this...however if it does turn out that the 3 cut produces a higher overall avg by throwing the 2 4 in the crib, then I have learned something here today, and I would change my vote :) Albeit in what is very likely a losing effort anyway! MiketheExpert says: Did I hit on the "key learning" point in this deal...hmmm, I wonder? I am eagerly awaiting the calculations for these scenarios, all centering around the 3 cut now, :)) JQT says: After Keep (7 J J J), we still have Five Cuts (5555, J) that may boost the Hand up to a Dozen, or even Thirteen Points, and several Cuts could also boost Toss (2 4) to become a better-than-average Crib. The key feature of this puzzle might be the fact that our awful position at (88*-107) may actually be what causes many of us to attempt to grasp for that higher Hand Total, and do so at the expense of our Crib and thus our Overall Total. I now wonder if this had been posted at a score of say (72*-85), then perhaps a lot more people would have "found" Toss (2 4) to be the better Discard Decision. But it's *also* better (and perhaps better disguised) at the position given! Regarding the Pegging: Pone could have two low-ranking cards and two higher-ranking cards such as Pone Keep (2 4 9 9) vs. Dealer Keep (7 J J J), and thus pegging might proceed: 9 (9) 7! (16) 9 (25) 'go' 4 (29) 2 (31-2) . J (10) J (20=2) J (30=7) and thus Dealer could out-peg Pone 9-to-2. However, with either of the alternative hand choices, (2 J J J) or (4 J J J), after any high-ranking lead by Pone (9 Card or Higher), we might feel compelled to respond with our Deuce, and then later we may have to say "go" at a much more dangerous Count (anywhere at or above Twenty-Two) where Pone could then easily peg enough to go out and WIN with First Hand Show. Therefore, the higher Count Total of the hand with the 7 Card "kicker" when pegging is actually a bit more defensive if we decide to hold the Three Jacks. MiketheExpert says: JQT, to your point, the awful score position IS what led me to grasp for the higher hand, hence the all or nothing philosophy, as I think the difference between scoring 10 or 12 TOTAL points is rather moot here, I need well more than 20 TOTAL points to have a reasonable shot. If the posted score were different as in your example, then I WOULD be taking the best POTENTIAL into consideration, as I feel I would still have some chance later on...so it is an approach of putting all my eggs in one basket here. The "pegging" discussion to me is an interesting one, however, as admittedly keeping the (7 J J J) does offer you this chance that a small card would not. I knew that it was more defensive (safer) than keeping a small card, but overlooked the fact that on average it SCORES more points as well due to a scenario like this...RAS mentions that it increases from (1.8 to 2.1), so an additional 0.3 for pegging...It is still unlikely, but in times of desperation, I feel even this is worthy of taking into consideration. |
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wasa 3017 votes Joined: November 2014 |
Tuesday 7:58 AM
Agree with James and JCM - I need a cut, and if I tossed 4-7 there are only three 4s left. The 7 does not work with the jacks. I'm hoping for a 5 or 3 to be cut to get me down the board and a 16-24 point hand next deal. Slim odds, but as the famous smuggler once said (a long time ago in a galaxy far far away..) "Don't tell me the odds!" wasa says: Sorry - hoping for a 5 or 1 to be cut. I wanted the 2-7 in my crib due to the negative delta of the 4-7 wasa says: Actually, I'd also take a J cut, although puts my opponent that much closer |
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Ras2829 5153 votes Joined: November 2008 |
Tuesday 10:05 AM
Choosing an offense strategy at all points, the 2-4 goes to the crib and provides nearly full point advantage in combined values (pegs, hand, and crib scores). Will play the 7 on any lead of 5 or above. Some chance if doing that, n/d could play all cards, giving dealer chance to pair for two and triple for 6 pegs and a go. That could reduce the spread. Not much chance to win from hole 88; think that is likely about 5%. Eolus619 says: thx for your thoughts on dealer response to Pone lead MiketheExpert says: Hi Ras, so I see you and JQT are in agreement here, that will be a tough fight to overcome, lol. So I'm wondering how spread out the full point advantage is here, in other words it is many different scenarios of combined values (pegs, hand, crib) which sum up to give you (on average) the advantage, or whether it is confined to less cases (such as the 3 cut discussion in JQT's thread above) that give you a higher TOTAL score in these specific instances...For me, that is the key that I'm looking for that would change my vote here...less spread and a higher MAX...so I'm really only taking the max into consideration in this position...And echoing Eolus, your play of a 7 on the lead by pone here offers another possibility (though very small) for scoring a large pegging total that even I didn't think of, because he would have to play and hold cards in a very specific way in order for this to happen. Once again, a great learning hand, though! Ras2829 says: Here are the dealer averages for the three common discard choices this day: 2-4 4.636, 2-7 3.776, and 4-7 3.611. True holding one small card with the J-J-J does increase potential hand value though only by .3 of a point. So that full point lost in crib cannot be recovered by holding 2 or four in the hand. Ras2829 says: Hi MiketheExpert: There are quite a few n/d hands that will play out if dealer holding J-J-J intact. Dealer scoring such triples is not rare. Not much else to play for here. The pegging potential of ?-J-J-J increases with the presence of the larger card (7) and does break two points (Cribbage Prof shows the average offensive pegs for this hold as 2.15) whereas the presence of the deuce or four with J-J-J pegs on average 1.7-1.8. MiketheExpert says: At the very least, it seems that 4-J-J-J slightly beats out the 2-J-J-J cut keep, which I wasn't expecting, but maybe has to do with the negative delta of the 4 (I was still thinking 4-7 may have the higher average). So at the very least, I should change my vote from 2-J-J-J to 4-J-J-J, however negligible the difference is :) Ras2829 says: Hi MiketheExpert: the average shown for 2-4 4.636 (1,696), 2-7 3.776 (823), and 4-7 3.611 (561) to own crib are from live play. Number in parentheses represents number of times discarded. All averages are higher on the other side of the board and the 4-7 4.997 (695) does have a higher average than 2-7 4.804 (1,481) when tossed on the other side of the board. To own crib, the 2-7 benefits from the very frequent 6-X n/d discards. MiketheExpert says: Ahh, I see, so empirical data, and that would make sense based on the frequency of 6-X discards into your crib from these live events. It sort of goes back to the same thing for me though on this particular deal...the benefit of those 2 extra points for 15 with this discard most likely doesn't do that much for you on this particular hand unless you're scoring a lot of total points, even if your crib happens to score higher, so I would like to discard the one which gives me the best chance of scoring the highest crib, not the highest average here. MiketheExpert says: This would bring me to the ultimate question of utmost importance then with this deal :) Debating between keeping the (2 J J J) or the (7 J J J). We can ignore the 5 and J cuts, as this provides equal help in the hand if either of these are cut, and between the (2 4) or the (4 7 toss), it is debatable as to which toss will be helped more by the 5. Are the odds higher of cutting the 3 (4 additional cuts of 46) to score your 12 or 13 pt hand? Or of PEGGING your 6 (or 8 additional pts) by running your 3 J's IF you keep the 7. That would be of prime interest to me in the decision. And I know we're pretty much debating a losing cause anyway, but still makes for a very interesting discussion on odds and extreme strategy in what would seem to be a hopeless situation :) MiketheExpert says: I can also make an argument in your favour now of keeping the (7 J J J). If the 3 happens to be cut, you have a better crib toss (2 4) even though you have diminished your hand by 6 pts...BUT, you still have the pegging possibility left intact by keeping the 7 in your hand. So whether you cut the 3, 5, or J, you still have the PEGGING possibility...so, I'm inching a little closer having my mind changed (or blown, if you want to put it that way here, lol!) |
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SallyAnn3 908 votes Joined: March 2020 |
Tuesday 10:40 AM
I kept a card that can help the Jacks..the 7 went, and the 4 helps the 7, and the 2 might help a GO SallyAnn3 says: kept 2 JJJ Gougie00 says: Nice meeting you on Sunday. dec says: Same here again. Very commendable that you are assisting Dave. SallyAnn3 says: ditto! I forgot to ask if got back on ecribbage...left you options last week or email me at accjudgetest@gmail.com SallyAnn3 says: Dave is like my little brother, Dan lol |
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Andy (muesli64) 2223 votes Joined: August 2009 |
Tuesday 3:34 PM
Can think too much about all this. 2-4 in the crib will yield more points. Better than chasing the long shot of trying to improve on the three jacks by keeping the 2 or the 4 in hand. Ras2829 says: Hi Andy (muesli64): Said very well in a mere two sentences. It took me a lot more ink to demonstrate the same points. |
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HalscribCLX 5317 votes Joined: February 2008 |
Tuesday 4:37 PM
At 88*-107 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Win %s and Loss %s are:
__________________Our Offense______Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W1 %____W2 % 7-J-J-J_______7.72+2.15+4.47=14.34____0.0_____5.5 4-J-J-J_______8.07+1.83+3.96=13.86____0.0_____4.9 2-J-J-J_______8.07+1.74+3.75=13.56____0.0_____4.8 Offense______________L1 %____L2 % 7-J-J-J_______________11.9____91.6 4-J-J-J_______________11.7____92.2 2-J-J-J_______________11.2____92.2 7-J-J-J is slightly best for Win %s and over the two deals slightly lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 2-4 to discard. After the 2C cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead. MiketheExpert says: The only point I would disagree with here is the very last sentence....Don't think there is any room for caution here, so it's all out score as much as you possibly can...of course, maybe it is being said because the skunk possibility is still on the table? But here you only need to score 3 pts before he pegs out to make it over if it is during the play. |
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jmudge 701 votes Joined: July 2020 |
Tuesday 4:51 PM
Was hoping for a good cut for pegging. Blech. JQT says: If the stakes were *doubled* for SKUNKS, or if securing a Tournament Game Total demanded that we avert the SKUNK, then jmudge and zeke76 probably have the correct idea, which is to hold a wide variety of cards that has a much better chance of guaranteeing that we get to Hole 91 or beyond; none of the (? J J J) hands can do this quite as well with the same certainty. This hand can score immediately during the pegging after Pone leads Seventeen Cards (22, 444, 5555, 777, 8888, J). |
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