July 18, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by fentesk
103-95*  ?
58%
21%
12%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 202
fenteskThis type of score looks deceptive to me. How should I maximize my chances of winning? Actual cut was nine of clubs. (Dealer discarded K-10)
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:00 AM
Eighteen Points is a long way off for us as Pone, so we are almost certainly going to need another deal in order to WIN this game. And meanwhile, the Dealer sits exactly "Three Counts" away from possibly winning.

Therefore, we need a very *defensive* posture in order to attempt to boost our odds of winning today. Toss (A T) is perhaps the most defensive, but it obliterates our hand! Is there a better alternative?

I like Toss (4 8) here, as it permits us to retain a hand of Four Points, while still being defensive. This discard also leaves us with a very w-i-d-e assortment of cards, which is ideal for defensive pegging.

After the 7 Card Cut, let's lead our Ace.
JQT says: As fentesk reported, a 9 Card was Cut in the original game. Boosting this hand up to Eight Points might have urged me to peg a bit more optimally, and therefore, I may have led the Ten Card in that 'alternate' game. The difference is that a Cut such as a 9 Card doubles our hand, and thus it may allow us to get close enough to peg out as Next Dealer. Still, we must remain mostly defensive-minded due to Dealer's Position!
JQT says: Either way, if we did get a better Cut, and if we do lead the Ten "T" Card, we should avoid PAIRING a 5 Card Reply should the Dealer grab the (15-2): play off here and 'dump' the Lone Ace. Incidentally, that is the main reason I have for leading the Ace today; it's less of a defensive tactic, and more of a simple means of getting rid of the 'Lone' Ace.
MiketheExpert says: I agree, whether leading the T or 9 if you choose, my next play is the Ace, even if makes 15-2 on your T lead.
fentesk says: Thanks, it's great to see "how defensive" people feel is the right amount of defensive here. I'm surprised the A-4 pulled 60% of the popular vote, way too dangerous for me.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 3:20 AM
Looking for something defensive here. Thinking about how to minimise their score, rather than scoring myself.

4-5-8-T (A-9) caught my eye, 1+9=10 and I hold a 5 card, for the 9 to feature in a run it needs an 8/T or both, and I hold one of each.

A-5-9-T (4-8) seems safe enough though, and features a 16 combo to peg with.
Eolus619 says: James..nice analysis . To add a bit ..if one decides to play defense & one knows A-4 discard to own crib makes Ras’s star rating system ( although only one) then it surely is worth even more value across the board fo my opponent. Also touching 8-9 across the board will average well above five. A 4-8 averages under five across the board ..let us hope this comes true in this defensive scenario.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:38 AM
I am probably off today based on previous comments but I am tossing A-4 to start with 5 points and a possible 12. Based on Ras's comments yesterday, I believe this hand is more defensive but this hold allows the hand to increase in value.
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:47 AM
I went defense it matters more what they gain here. Leading the ace and play twister with the pegging. dec
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 6:07 AM
Not seeing anything I like on the menu again. I tried the 48 to keep 4 points. What card am I hoping gets cut though? Ugh. I dont want to peg and I want the dealer backed up to hole 105 if I can. Lead the A and play dodge.
scottcrib
1637 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Sunday 6:25 AM
Well, we have references to twister and dodgeball above, so I'll keep a wide assortment and play hide and seek with the dealer.
MiketheExpert
1123 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Sunday 6:57 AM
Defense, defense, defense! At least as much as I can muster...I really don't care how much I score in the hand here. You cannot discard A 4 to the opponent's crib here. So because I don't have a GREAT throw, the best I can do is (4 8). It may not be the absolute safest throw, but when you combine what cards are left in my hand (A 5 9 10), I think I can most effectively prevent his movement with this by leading the ace. I am leaving 4 points in hand, but again, this is really not my concern at all in this board position.
MiketheExpert says: I still care a little bit about my hand score, I was maybe being a little bit overdramatic for effect...that's why I am not tossing A 10. He is still at hole 95 after all, so at least I'd like to be in a decent position to go out on the next deal..If he were at hole 92, then I can say throw all scoring out the window...!
MiketheExpert says: For your curiosity...You may want to "refer" back to a CHOD dated June 16th, with a VERY similar board position to this...I believe it was 102-95*. But on this day, I chose an even much MORE dangerous crib throw into the OPPONENT's crib (4 5). Why the big difference in my choice of strategy on this deal today? The difference is in the STARTING hand and potential cuts for your MAXIMUM score here. On that day, I STARTED with a flush and 9 pts in the hand, which could get a maximum score of 14-16 on several cuts, and leave you VERY close to pegging out on the next deal before he even had a chance to count his hand. Your MAXIMUM score here is only 12, with only 3 cuts (10,10,10) which STILL does not leave you in a good position to peg out on the following hand. So you have to face the fact that he is going to get his next count, and do everything you can to prevent his movement in preparation for this inevitability.
MiketheExpert says: I think the one person who voted for (4 5 8 10) today deserves a prize if he wants to reveal himself, lol! This is the only person to match Hal on this day.
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021
 
 
 
Sunday 7:04 AM
Well...defense only goes so far in this game and if you don't get there in the next round it's prolly not gonna work out. I'm gonna hold for points and hope we don't cut a 10 card. I'll play defense next hand.
MiketheExpert says: Hi Fender..remember though, you only need to score 2 or 3 to in better than an ideal position to go out on the next round...but he is just about where he needs to be already, and anything extra you give him reduces your chances considerably with his first count on the next deal.
MiketheExpert says: When you say 10 card above, I would imagine you are referring to any X-card, not an actual "10". I would think you are really hoping for a 10 to give yourself 12 points now :)
Fender Bass says: Yes, an X-card. Thanks.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 10:43 AM
Sure don't like that 7H as a starter card with my suited 4-8 discard. The 7 is often the card that makes a 4-8 work for a nice crib. Agree with others as to choosing defense, limiting dealer movement down the board. Dealer has minimum position at hole 95 (4th street CPZ 95-99). Want dealer to be no more than hole 109 at the end of this deal as chances for n/d to score 12 are one of four. Will lead the 9 breaking the upper sequence and escape with the Ace. Don't like to lead my escape card when choosing defense strategy to include the pegging. The worst that can happen on the 9 lead is for dealer to peg two points. If had not retained in this manner, would have discarded 8-9, and really cringed when cutting that 7. More later!
MiketheExpert says: Absolutely, don't like the starter card at all. I was debating between either the A or 9 lead, but ultimately I chose the A, as I felt the spacing from high to low was wide enough that I might be able to escape with a high card (9 or 10) if needed, and wanted to lessen the chances of dealer even scoring 2 on my opening lead. If he had paired the A, I was ready to drop the 9 to make the count 11, being left with my 5 and 10. Might end up getting trapped or stuck with a 5 then.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 6:16 PM
We could keep 5pts with 5-8-9-10 (A-4), 4pts with A-4-5-10 (8-9) or play Defense for 0pts with 4-5-8-9 (A-10):

5-8-9-10: 5pts - 6pts (Schell: 5.72) = -1pt

A-4-5-10: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = -1¾pts

4-5-8-9: 0pt - 4½pts (Schell: 4.48) = -4½pts

Potential:

5-8-9-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 555, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 20 cuts.

A-4-5-10: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 9999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666 + 15xXs = 32 cuts.

4-5-8-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/7pts with 3333, 6666, 7777 = 12 cuts.

Position:

Opponent is dealing just 1pt short of 4th street positional and we only need a few points to get into position for our deal. So I'll play all out Defense.

Pegging:

A-4-5-10, I think, will peg best but playing Defense I think 4-5-8-9 will peg well too.

Summary:

5-8-9-10 has the best starting value by ¾pt over A-4-5-10 and 5-8-9-10 has more cuts for improvement over A-4-5-10 and 20 cuts for 8-12pts compared to 32 cuts for 7-10pts. 4-5-8-9 has guaranteed improvement but with a starting value 3¼pts behind I think this is too much to consider it. So on balance with the better starting value, more cuts for improvement and the better maximum I believe I'll risk the A-4 throw.
Rosemarie44 says: I chose this hand. Not quite sure how 459T for 2 points is Hal's choice.
MiketheExpert says: It looks like he was actually supposed to pick (4 5 8 10), which is still a 2 pt hand (discard the A 9). I think the best choice should be the one that has lowest negative score between Dlr's pegs and Crib, and more or less ignoring the hand score here. Didn't think about all these possibilities quite to that level, but in some way it may make sense because the lone ace can also sometimes be somewhat dangerous. The 4 lead also makes me a bit nervous, however with some of the common responses (7 or 8) from this, even a face card response is not that great. It is certainly a somewhat surprising choice.
MiketheExpert says: That would have worked pretty well today after the 7H cut :)
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 6:31 PM
At 103-95* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W1 %___W2 %
A-5-9-10___6.46+(-2.85)+(-4.64)=(-1.03)____0.0____49.2
A-4-5-10___7.17+(-2.89)+(-5.37)=(-1.09)____0.2____45.1
5-8-9-10___7.72+(-3.11)+(-5.86)=(-1.25)____0.8____47.2
A-4-5-9____5.52+(-2.76)+(-4.58)=(-1.82)____0.1____47.8
4-5-8-10___4.85+(-2.65)+(-4.30)=(-2.10)____0.0____49.8
A-5-8-9____4.85+(-2.87)+(-4.10)=(-2.20)____0.0____48.3
4-5-9-10___5.07+(-2.74)+(-4.54)=(-2.21)____0.0____49.7
A-5-8-10___4.41+(-2.83)+(-4.43)=(-2.85)____0.0____44.4
4-8-9-10___5.24+(-2.91)+(-6.04)=(-3.71)____0.0____40.7
4-5-8-9____3.33+(-2.91)+(-4.16)=(-3.74)____0.0____44.0
A-4-5-8____3.78+(-2.59)+(-5.22)=(-4.03)____0.0____41.1
A-4-8-10___4.46+(-2.52)+(-6.14)=(-4.20)____0.0____38.1
A-4-9-10___4.63+(-2.65)+(-6.31)=(-4.33)____0.0____37.4
A-8-9-10___5.20+(-2.74)+(-7.32)=(-4.86)____0.0____32.9

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
A-5-9-10_______2.7____40.1
A-4-5-10_______6.5____46.9
5-8-9-10_______3.3____47.2
A-4-5-9________3.1____43.0
4-5-8-10_______2.2____39.9
A-5-8-9________2.2____40.0
4-5-9-10_______2.7____49.7
A-5-8-10_______2.7____43.0
4-8-9-10_______2.9____49.8
4-5-8-9________2.2____40.1
A-4-5-8________4.1____46.6
A-4-8-10_______3.6____50.7
A-4-9-10_______3.7____51.0
A-8-9-10_______6.5____56.1

Although A-5-9-10 is best for expected averages by 0.06pt but 4-5-9-10 is slightly best for Win %s and very slightly best for Loss %s so I'll select A-8 to discard..

After the 7 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Defense:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
4______________________(-1.97)
10_____________________(-2.56)
9______________________(-2.61)
5______________________(-2.89)
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Sunday 7:34 PM
defense