July 18, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by fentesk
103-95*  ?
58%
21%
12%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 202
fenteskThis type of score looks deceptive to me. How should I maximize my chances of winning? Actual cut was nine of clubs. (Dealer discarded K-10)
JQT
3149 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 3:00 AM
Eighteen Points is a long way off for us as Pone, so we are almost certainly going to need another deal in order to WIN this game. And meanwhile, the Dealer sits exactly "Three Counts" away from possibly winning.

Therefore, we need a very *defensive* posture in order to attempt to boost our odds of winning today. Toss (A T) is perhaps the most defensive, but it obliterates our hand! Is there a better alternative?

I like Toss (4 8) here, as it permits us to retain a hand of Four Points, while still being defensive. This discard also leaves us with a very w-i-d-e assortment of cards, which is ideal for defensive pegging.

After the 7 Card Cut, let's lead our Ace.
james500
2923 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 3:20 AM
Looking for something defensive here. Thinking about how to minimise their score, rather than scoring myself.

4-5-8-T (A-9) caught my eye, 1+9=10 and I hold a 5 card, for the 9 to feature in a run it needs an 8/T or both, and I hold one of each.

A-5-9-T (4-8) seems safe enough though, and features a 16 combo to peg with.
Rosemarie44
1931 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:38 AM
I am probably off today based on previous comments but I am tossing A-4 to start with 5 points and a possible 12. Based on Ras's comments yesterday, I believe this hand is more defensive but this hold allows the hand to increase in value.
dec
5319 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 3:47 AM
I went defense it matters more what they gain here. Leading the ace and play twister with the pegging. dec
Gougie00
4709 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 6:07 AM
Not seeing anything I like on the menu again. I tried the 48 to keep 4 points. What card am I hoping gets cut though? Ugh. I dont want to peg and I want the dealer backed up to hole 105 if I can. Lead the A and play dodge.
scottcrib
629 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Sunday 6:25 AM
Well, we have references to twister and dodgeball above, so I'll keep a wide assortment and play hide and seek with the dealer.
MiketheExpert
115 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Sunday 6:57 AM
Defense, defense, defense! At least as much as I can muster...I really don't care how much I score in the hand here. You cannot discard A 4 to the opponent's crib here. So because I don't have a GREAT throw, the best I can do is (4 8). It may not be the absolute safest throw, but when you combine what cards are left in my hand (A 5 9 10), I think I can most effectively prevent his movement with this by leading the ace. I am leaving 4 points in hand, but again, this is really not my concern at all in this board position.
Fender Bass
20 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Sunday 7:04 AM
Well...defense only goes so far in this game and if you don't get there in the next round it's prolly not gonna work out. I'm gonna hold for points and hope we don't cut a 10 card. I'll play defense next hand.
Ras2829
4165 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 10:43 AM
Sure don't like that 7H as a starter card with my suited 4-8 discard. The 7 is often the card that makes a 4-8 work for a nice crib. Agree with others as to choosing defense, limiting dealer movement down the board. Dealer has minimum position at hole 95 (4th street CPZ 95-99). Want dealer to be no more than hole 109 at the end of this deal as chances for n/d to score 12 are one of four. Will lead the 9 breaking the upper sequence and escape with the Ace. Don't like to lead my escape card when choosing defense strategy to include the pegging. The worst that can happen on the 9 lead is for dealer to peg two points. If had not retained in this manner, would have discarded 8-9, and really cringed when cutting that 7. More later!
Coeurdelion
4620 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 6:16 PM
We could keep 5pts with 5-8-9-10 (A-4), 4pts with A-4-5-10 (8-9) or play Defense for 0pts with 4-5-8-9 (A-10):

5-8-9-10: 5pts - 6pts (Schell: 5.72) = -1pt

A-4-5-10: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = -1¾pts

4-5-8-9: 0pt - 4½pts (Schell: 4.48) = -4½pts

Potential:

5-8-9-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 555, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 20 cuts.

A-4-5-10: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 9999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666 + 15xXs = 32 cuts.

4-5-8-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/7pts with 3333, 6666, 7777 = 12 cuts.

Position:

Opponent is dealing just 1pt short of 4th street positional and we only need a few points to get into position for our deal. So I'll play all out Defense.

Pegging:

A-4-5-10, I think, will peg best but playing Defense I think 4-5-8-9 will peg well too.

Summary:

5-8-9-10 has the best starting value by ¾pt over A-4-5-10 and 5-8-9-10 has more cuts for improvement over A-4-5-10 and 20 cuts for 8-12pts compared to 32 cuts for 7-10pts. 4-5-8-9 has guaranteed improvement but with a starting value 3¼pts behind I think this is too much to consider it. So on balance with the better starting value, more cuts for improvement and the better maximum I believe I'll risk the A-4 throw.
HalscribCLX
4357 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 6:31 PM
At 103-95* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W1 %___W2 %
A-5-9-10___6.46+(-2.85)+(-4.64)=(-1.03)____0.0____49.2
A-4-5-10___7.17+(-2.89)+(-5.37)=(-1.09)____0.2____45.1
5-8-9-10___7.72+(-3.11)+(-5.86)=(-1.25)____0.8____47.2
A-4-5-9____5.52+(-2.76)+(-4.58)=(-1.82)____0.1____47.8
4-5-8-10___4.85+(-2.65)+(-4.30)=(-2.10)____0.0____49.8
A-5-8-9____4.85+(-2.87)+(-4.10)=(-2.20)____0.0____48.3
4-5-9-10___5.07+(-2.74)+(-4.54)=(-2.21)____0.0____49.7
A-5-8-10___4.41+(-2.83)+(-4.43)=(-2.85)____0.0____44.4
4-8-9-10___5.24+(-2.91)+(-6.04)=(-3.71)____0.0____40.7
4-5-8-9____3.33+(-2.91)+(-4.16)=(-3.74)____0.0____44.0
A-4-5-8____3.78+(-2.59)+(-5.22)=(-4.03)____0.0____41.1
A-4-8-10___4.46+(-2.52)+(-6.14)=(-4.20)____0.0____38.1
A-4-9-10___4.63+(-2.65)+(-6.31)=(-4.33)____0.0____37.4
A-8-9-10___5.20+(-2.74)+(-7.32)=(-4.86)____0.0____32.9

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
A-5-9-10_______2.7____40.1
A-4-5-10_______6.5____46.9
5-8-9-10_______3.3____47.2
A-4-5-9________3.1____43.0
4-5-8-10_______2.2____39.9
A-5-8-9________2.2____40.0
4-5-9-10_______2.7____49.7
A-5-8-10_______2.7____43.0
4-8-9-10_______2.9____49.8
4-5-8-9________2.2____40.1
A-4-5-8________4.1____46.6
A-4-8-10_______3.6____50.7
A-4-9-10_______3.7____51.0
A-8-9-10_______6.5____56.1

Although A-5-9-10 is best for expected averages by 0.06pt but 4-5-9-10 is slightly best for Win %s and very slightly best for Loss %s so I'll select A-8 to discard..

After the 7 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Defense:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
4______________________(-1.97)
10_____________________(-2.56)
9______________________(-2.61)
5______________________(-2.89)
SallyAnn3
405 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Sunday 7:34 PM
defense