July 19, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by MiketheExpert
0-0*  ?
54%
17%
13%
6%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 245
MiketheExpertWe've got a problem here on the first deal. Most are taught to be aggressive as pone at the outset of the game, but can we really afford to toss 5 5 here?
JQT
3149 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 3:00 AM
I see no reason to start the game off with either Toss (5 5) or Toss (7 8), not when we can Keep (5 5 6 7) and Toss (6 8).

In fact, I would sooner Toss (5 8) or even Toss (5 6) here than Toss (5 5)!

After the 7 Card Cut, it's crazy to think that we might have actually *minimized* the Dealer's Crib.

Let's stun our Dealer Opponent and lead a 7 Card!
james500
2923 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 3:04 AM
Not sure who that cut benefits more.
I agree with John, "see one, play one".
Jazzselke
1838 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 4:09 AM
We still have cuts for 16, vs a possible 20 by throwing the fives. Seems like a favorable offset to me.
Rosemarie44
1931 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 4:36 AM
I see no reason to toss 5-8 or 5-5 to dealer. This hand starts with 8 points has a maximum of 17. Only one cut (AAAA) does not add value of the hand. Expected averages favor this retention and discard.
Gougie00
4709 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 4:45 AM
Me first. Not sure I like the 7 starter. Might be the case where I get 16 but the crib has 12. Lead the 7.

More rain in northern Massachusetts.
dec
5319 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 5:04 AM
Its the most logical choice here as being first non dealer. Now if you rea1ly needed 20 plus on fourth street that's a real call there. Twelve might not be the case in crib if faces thrown. dec
mfetchCT425
898 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Monday 5:23 AM
Keep the double run with the nickels. Too many cuts help this hand. If we toss the 5s, we take away all the “10”/face card cuts from helping us. 6-8 toss with 7 in our hand is way safer than 5-5 with no faces showing.
MiketheExpert
115 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Monday 5:29 AM
Have to apologize for my comment and the lack of challenge on this one...I don't think any "serious" player in their right mind is going to throw (5 5) to the opponent's crib here, unless they misread the deal. This hand looked a lot more puzzling at the time it was posted, I think I posted it before actually making the discard, and now it seems quite apparent what the proper discard should be (6 8). What makes it even more strange is that an actual 7 was cut here on CHOD (I forget what was cut in the actual game). However, I notice several voters are choosing to toss (7 8) while keeping chances (5 5 6 6) for a max of 24, while the actual cut of 7 here will give you 24 IF you toss the (5 5)...So maybe CHOD is trying to mess with our heads a bit here!
usacoder
667 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Monday 5:43 AM
Giving up the pair of 5s was tough. And getting the 7 turn card was just damn lucky. But the algorithm said to do toss the pair of 5s, and so I did.
Ras2829
4165 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 6:12 AM
Choosing offense to include the pegging as n/d of hand one, it's goodbye 6-8, lead the 7, and take any pegs offered. Plan to drop a five second card played dependent on dealer response to my opener.
fentesk
212 votes

Joined: January 2021

   
Monday 6:49 AM
This combines the safest discard available to us today (6-8), with the second best hand for us, a point or so off of discarding 5-5.

It says something about our hand when 6-8 is "safe".

This puzzle gets at something I'm still trying to fully grasp. Where is the line between "too aggressive" and "the right amount of aggressive" on opening hand. Colvert reads to me as saying you focus on points for yourself. I believe the way Ras phrased it to me before is that the net points (hand - dealer crib) are generally the way to go on opening hand. I make a point of not knowingly going against Ras's suggestions.
mrob2199
715 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Monday 8:10 AM
Have to agree with most today on the 5567 hold-huge shout out to Dan and Sally for all their hard work hosting a spectacular tournament in Rockford this past weekend-it attracted 91 players from all over the country and it was possibly the toughest overall group of players I’ve ever played-Dan put 200 dollars of his own into paying out to players for crib flushes and a few other people offered other perks as well-if any of you non tournament players ever want to try a tournament I suggest this would be a great event to get your feet wet!
Coeurdelion
4620 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 1:37 PM
I'd like to keep the two 5s and the least damaging discard is 6-8 so I'll keep 5-5-6-7 for 8pts.
HalscribCLX
4357 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 1:40 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
5-5-6-7____12.13+1.17+(-4.65)=8.65____36.6____31.7
5-6-6-7____11.70+1.67+(-5.98)=7.39____36.6____29.3
6-6-7-8____13.09+1.33+(-9.56)=4.86____39.3____25.9
5-6-7-8*____9.48+1.33+(-6.97)=3.84____30.5____22.7

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
5-5-6-7_______40.0____45.0
5-6-6-7_______42.9____47.6
6-6-7-8_______51.4____51.4
5-6-7-8*______45.8____53.8

* unsuited 5-6

5-5-6-7 is best for expected averages by 1.26pts and is slightly best for Win %s and appreciably lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select a 6-8 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.
7______________________1.24
5______________________1.19
6______________________0.97
travelingman2019
442 votes

Joined: December 2018

   
Monday 4:58 PM
absolutely not, Mike......based on the hand the 68 toss should be the least deadly....the pone could toss fives and start out with a fatal crib if 55 is tossed, we have a 7 so the odds are better that 678 will be the only connectors in the crib.....bottom line is it is only the first hand and if we are to trail because of this, better to be as close as possible for the comeback....