July 19, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by MiketheExpert
0-0*  ?
54%
17%
13%
6%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 245
MiketheExpertWe've got a problem here on the first deal. Most are taught to be aggressive as pone at the outset of the game, but can we really afford to toss 5 5 here?
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:00 AM
I see no reason to start the game off with either Toss (5 5) or Toss (7 8), not when we can Keep (5 5 6 7) and Toss (6 8).

In fact, I would sooner Toss (5 8) or even Toss (5 6) here than Toss (5 5)!

After the 7 Card Cut, it's crazy to think that we might have actually *minimized* the Dealer's Crib.

Let's stun our Dealer Opponent and lead a 7 Card!
MiketheExpert says: I might rate (5 5) discard at just a notch above (5 6), especially if you chuck both diamonds, but just barely!
MiketheExpert says: As of 6pm ET though, there are still approximately a dozen voters who tossed (5 5), who probably have ill will towards me, since I essentially called it out as unthinkable, lol...But people may legitimately have some reason as why they believe it is the best toss, so this can still be a learning experience for many.
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 3:04 AM
Not sure who that cut benefits more.
I agree with John, "see one, play one".
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Monday 4:09 AM
We still have cuts for 16, vs a possible 20 by throwing the fives. Seems like a favorable offset to me.
SallyAnn3 says: ditto..plus holding a 7. Thanks again for the awesome tournament and socializing--was fun :)
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 4:36 AM
I see no reason to toss 5-8 or 5-5 to dealer. This hand starts with 8 points has a maximum of 17. Only one cut (AAAA) does not add value of the hand. Expected averages favor this retention and discard.
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:45 AM
Me first. Not sure I like the 7 starter. Might be the case where I get 16 but the crib has 12. Lead the 7.

More rain in northern Massachusetts.
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 5:04 AM
Its the most logical choice here as being first non dealer. Now if you rea1ly needed 20 plus on fourth street that's a real call there. Twelve might not be the case in crib if faces thrown. dec
scottcrib says: Good match last night Dan. I'll get you next time (maybe).
mfetchCT425
1398 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 5:23 AM
Keep the double run with the nickels. Too many cuts help this hand. If we toss the 5s, we take away all the “10”/face card cuts from helping us. 6-8 toss with 7 in our hand is way safer than 5-5 with no faces showing.
Jazzselke says: See Sally's comment below...
SallyAnn3 says: Hey....come to Dan's tourney next year with Rob. Mid-July--we'll take care of you :)
mfetchCT425 says: I’ll definitely have to try and get out there next year for this tournament. 91 players! Nice showing. And with Dan and Sally organizing things, I’m sure it was a great tourney.
MiketheExpert
1121 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Monday 5:29 AM
Have to apologize for my comment and the lack of challenge on this one...I don't think any "serious" player in their right mind is going to throw (5 5) to the opponent's crib here, unless they misread the deal. This hand looked a lot more puzzling at the time it was posted, I think I posted it before actually making the discard, and now it seems quite apparent what the proper discard should be (6 8). What makes it even more strange is that an actual 7 was cut here on CHOD (I forget what was cut in the actual game). However, I notice several voters are choosing to toss (7 8) while keeping chances (5 5 6 6) for a max of 24, while the actual cut of 7 here will give you 24 IF you toss the (5 5)...So maybe CHOD is trying to mess with our heads a bit here!
MiketheExpert says: I posted some other hands which I believe are of a lot higher quality than this one, but probably will not appear for another month or so!
MiketheExpert says: Now that I'm looking at it, it looks like 1 has voted for (5 5), and so hopefully it was the mistake I mentioned above :) If not, I'm sorry if you feel insulted as you may have a reason why you tossed the (5 5), including my comment at the top.
MiketheExpert says: You know what, this puzzle would have been a lot more challenging had I made one of those 6's a 7!
MiketheExpert says: Maybe a good idea. If you change that 6c to a 7c..I think my comment at the top fits a lot better! As your (5 5) discard NOW leaves you with 12 pts in the hand. But a (5 8) or (7 8) only leaves you with 8 pts. This would've been the CHOD had I been given another chance, but in reality the hand above was what was dealt in the actual game. Would be interested to know in this new situation what your discard would be if you are so inclined.....
fentesk says: I agree this makes the decision much harder. I think I discard 5-8 since I know where two of the 7s are, and accept that any X cut benefits both of us equally regarding the single 5s. I'm using the 5 in hand as a hedge against the 5 in the crib. In essence, I lose net value from all X cards to keep the double run.
fentesk says: I have wondered the general question, which you're also getting at, what hand could you be dealt at 0-0* that you would discard 5-5?
MiketheExpert says: Probably (5-5-7-7-8-8) would be one of these...There are not very many. With (5-5-6-7-7-8), I think it would be a pretty close decision to toss 5-5, or reduce your starting hand by 4 pts while still tossing a 5 (such as 5-8).
MiketheExpert says: I guess a good rule of thumb is no matter how obvious an answer may seem, if 25% or more of the voters did not come up with the right answer, then it is not a waste! :) At this point, it is right at about 75% (assuming both variations are equal, which I am.)
fentesk says: Less important but interesting to me, there is a 3.6:1 split between which 6 to discard even though, as best as I can tell, there should be no preference for one vs. the other. If anything, I would think one would keep the 6-club on the off chance the opponent missed the 7 was a spade and not a club. (I imagine it's more based on the order the cards are shown in this case, with the diamonds closer together catching the attention of the "fake flush" crowd.)
james500 says: Hiya Fentesk, hope all's well. Not that it's especially enlightening with regards to your query, but for what it's worth, I personally tend to avoid discarding cards of the same colour if I can. The 8 was a red card, so I gave away the black 6 rather than 6d. Obviously I wouldn't alter my choice of which ranks I'm getting rid of because of colour, but where I have a choice such as today, I will choose black card and red card.
MiketheExpert says: It might look more aesthetically pleasing to keep the diamonds together, as it captures the eye more. I just took the first one on the left...maybe cause I'm left-handed, don't know? :)
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Monday 5:43 AM
Giving up the pair of 5s was tough. And getting the 7 turn card was just damn lucky. But the algorithm said to do toss the pair of 5s, and so I did.
usacoder says: Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs FIVE of CLUBs SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs if you discard these: SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs the average score is 9.63 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs FIVE of CLUBs SIX of DIAMONDs SEVEN of SPADEs if you discard these: SIX of CLUBs EIGHT of HEARTs the average score is 13.98 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs FIVE of CLUBs SIX of DIAMONDs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs the average score is 8.14 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs FIVE of CLUBs SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs if you discard these: SIX of DIAMONDs EIGHT of HEARTs the average score is 13.98 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs FIVE of CLUBs SIX of CLUBs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: SIX of DIAMONDs SEVEN of SPADEs the average score is 8.14 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs FIVE of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs the average score is 8.88 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs if you discard these: FIVE of CLUBs EIGHT of HEARTs the average score is 13.85 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: FIVE of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs the average score is 7.46 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs SIX of DIAMONDs SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: FIVE of CLUBs SIX of CLUBs the average score is 11.49 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: FIVE of CLUBs SIX of DIAMONDs the average score is 11.49 Cards to keep: FIVE of CLUBs SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs if you discard these: FIVE of DIAMONDs EIGHT of HEARTs the average score is 13.85 Cards to keep: FIVE of CLUBs SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: FIVE of DIAMONDs SEVEN of SPADEs the average score is 7.46 Cards to keep: FIVE of CLUBs SIX of DIAMONDs SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: FIVE of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs the average score is 11.49 Cards to keep: FIVE of CLUBs SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: FIVE of DIAMONDs SIX of DIAMONDs the average score is 11.49 Cards to keep: SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: FIVE of DIAMONDs FIVE of CLUBs the average score is 15.21 Best cards to keep: SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs and give to crib : FIVE of DIAMONDs and FIVE of CLUBs
usacoder says: That format is ugly I'll try again.
usacoder says: Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs FIVE of CLUBs SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs if you discard these: SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs the average score is 9.63 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs FIVE of CLUBs SIX of DIAMONDs SEVEN of SPADEs if you discard these: SIX of CLUBs EIGHT of HEARTs the average score is 13.98 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs FIVE of CLUBs SIX of DIAMONDs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs the average score is 8.14 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs FIVE of CLUBs SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs if you discard these: SIX of DIAMONDs EIGHT of HEARTs the average score is 13.98 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs FIVE of CLUBs SIX of CLUBs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: SIX of DIAMONDs SEVEN of SPADEs the average score is 8.14 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs FIVE of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs the average score is 8.88 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs if you discard these: FIVE of CLUBs EIGHT of HEARTs the average score is 13.85 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: FIVE of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs the average score is 7.46 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs SIX of DIAMONDs SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: FIVE of CLUBs SIX of CLUBs the average score is 11.49 Cards to keep: FIVE of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: FIVE of CLUBs SIX of DIAMONDs the average score is 11.49 Cards to keep: FIVE of CLUBs SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs if you discard these: FIVE of DIAMONDs EIGHT of HEARTs the average score is 13.85 Cards to keep: FIVE of CLUBs SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: FIVE of DIAMONDs SEVEN of SPADEs the average score is 7.46 Cards to keep: FIVE of CLUBs SIX of DIAMONDs SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: FIVE of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs the average score is 11.49 Cards to keep: FIVE of CLUBs SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: FIVE of DIAMONDs SIX of DIAMONDs the average score is 11.49 Cards to keep: SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs if you discard these: FIVE of DIAMONDs FIVE of CLUBs the average score is 15.21 Best cards to keep: SIX of DIAMONDs SIX of CLUBs SEVEN of SPADEs EIGHT of HEARTs and give to crib : FIVE of DIAMONDs and FIVE of CLUBs
usacoder says: Sorry about that; the formatter removes the new line character.
james500 says: Hi Coder, hope you're well. As you've discovered, the formatting in the "reply" boxes is different to that in the regular "comment" box. You're not going to want to type all that out a third time, but if you have anything like that in the future, post it as a new comment and it will have the line breaks and paragraphs that you desire, rather than being shown as one long continuous sentence.
usacoder says: Got it. Thanx.
fentesk says: For your own readability, have you considered coding your output as "FIVE-H" or "5-H" instead of "FIVE of HEARTS"? For the basic VBA based code I built, I found I liked 5 (H) for my output, but I'm also not generating a text field since I have Excel for easy row comparisons.
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 6:12 AM
Choosing offense to include the pegging as n/d of hand one, it's goodbye 6-8, lead the 7, and take any pegs offered. Plan to drop a five second card played dependent on dealer response to my opener.
Ras2829 says: After seeing the algorithm of usacoder above, queried on Cribbage Prof. The Prof shows if choosing offense as follow: (1) discard 6-8 results in potential hand of 12.13, offensive peg total of 1.17, minus average crib of 4.65 (12.13+1.17-4.65=8.65); (2) discard 5-8 results in potential hand of 11.7, offensive peg total of 1.67, minus average crib of 5.98 (11.7+1.67-5.98=7.39); and discard 5-5 results in potential hand of 13.09, offensive peg total of 1.33, minus average crib of 9.56 (13.09+1.33-9.56=4.96). Those look like very good figures to me and discarding 5-5 is a long ways off the pace and looks even worse if choosing a defense strategy to include the pegging.
fentesk says: Ras, when Hal's bots predict pegging like this, what all does it entail? For instance, the 6-8 discard has offensive peg points of 1.17. Is that saying we should expect ~1 point total in pegging and ignores opponent pegging? Or is it against some sort of baseline? Does offensive pegging care at all about opponent pegging for the reported values? I imagine some comparison of opponent's pegging is important and would be valued differently in different situations (e.g., offensive vs defensive).
Ras2829 says: Hi fentesk: The cribbot and self when choosing offensive pegigng show + always as pegs are those scored by offense (don't really care about what is being scored on the other side of the board). Offense to include pegging was chosen only because of own need. In optimal the peg total may be prceded by + or - as it is own pegs less those scored by opponent. If choosing defense pegging strategy, peg totla will always be prceded by a - as it reflects only the pegs scored on the other side of the board. So when choosing defense strategy to include the pegging, our goal is to avoid pegs. So only those scored by opponent are relevaant. Best way to see this in aciton is to review several days of HalscribCLX so that you can view peg totals (always + on offense; - on defense, and + or - on optimal/netpegs. Only in the optimal mode can pegs be preceded by either sign. Seems awkward at first to fathom this though once you recognize the choice of strategy was based on personal needs, the outcomes make a lot more sense.
fentesk says: That makes it clear in my head, much appreciated. One takeaway, as opening pone we want to factor in the crib (negative points) when choosing our keep, but selfishly care only about our positive (offensive) pegging points.
Ras2829 says: Hi fentesk: Logic and general math are real strengths for me though am an absolute zero in abstract thinking. Believe one with that abstract thought capacity can see potential peg patterns that it would take me a long time to recognize. No mortal can get the peg potentials down to hundredths of a point as does HalscribCLX; though believe it is possible after looking at many pegging analyses to estimate peg values within 1/4 point. Even if able to get within .5 point, that's a tremendous advantage when playing this game. The same set of cards may peg well offensively if opponent also chooses an offense strategy to include pegging and are likely to peg much less when opponent has chosen a defense pegging strategy to include the pegging. There is so much that goes into pegging values that developing an algorithm to approximate actual potentials must be a Herculean task.
fentesk
1202 votes

Joined: January 2021
 
 
 
Monday 6:49 AM
This combines the safest discard available to us today (6-8), with the second best hand for us, a point or so off of discarding 5-5.

It says something about our hand when 6-8 is "safe".

This puzzle gets at something I'm still trying to fully grasp. Where is the line between "too aggressive" and "the right amount of aggressive" on opening hand. Colvert reads to me as saying you focus on points for yourself. I believe the way Ras phrased it to me before is that the net points (hand - dealer crib) are generally the way to go on opening hand. I make a point of not knowingly going against Ras's suggestions.
Ras2829 says: Hi fentesk: Hal Mueller, developer of world's most advanced cribbage tutorials (Halscrib, REX cribbage, and Cribbage Prof) was way ahead of the game two decades ago when he measured movement on crib board by combining totals of hand score, + or - pegs, + or - crib. That makes sense anywhere on the board unless all that matters are peg points or win/loss %. For example, in todays puzzle it stands the test of reason that if 5.5 averages 9.65 to crib and 6-8 averages 4.65 that the latter will produce a greater number of combined points. Admittedly it's somewhat difficult to think in these broader terms compared to the more simplified approach of just calculating hand value and defining such as offense or defense.
fentesk says: Thanks as always Ras. I look forward to being good enough with pegging that it starts influencing my decisions on what to hold more often. Net points is generally the way I think about the game for hand/crib which has the benefit that with enough time they can be calculated or memorized. I imagine pegging probably could be, but that's a ridiculously huge data set and actually learning and practicing seems the way to go. I also need to get better at applying the cards I know to changing the "static" crib table values. On the plus side, there are plenty of online opponents and bots willing to "teach me a lesson".
mrob2199
1434 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 8:10 AM
Have to agree with most today on the 5567 hold-huge shout out to Dan and Sally for all their hard work hosting a spectacular tournament in Rockford this past weekend-it attracted 91 players from all over the country and it was possibly the toughest overall group of players I’ve ever played-Dan put 200 dollars of his own into paying out to players for crib flushes and a few other people offered other perks as well-if any of you non tournament players ever want to try a tournament I suggest this would be a great event to get your feet wet!
Jazzselke says: Thanks for the endorsement Rob and thanks for flying out!
mrob2199 says: In fact I suggest Dans tournament be an unofficial convention tournament for the members of Daily Cribbage Hand!
SallyAnn3 says: LOL...I'm just the helper outer and official hugger. Thanks for flying out, and the socializing. Was fun to do CHOD stuff live :) You'll have to bring Fetch with you next year !
mrob2199 says: I would love it if Mike came out too! See if you can use your persuasion skills on Dan and Sheila!
HaydenSr says: Sounds like a fun tourny. Which state was it in?
travelingman2019 says: Rockford IL........
travelingman2019 says: and I concur with Dan....good for you to fly out and join us.....it was also great to see Tammy Gibbons AND Roland Hall....I remember him saying to someone it was great to get out to cribbage again and see his good friends from across the country.....and he came back with an awesome runner-up finish in the Main, a great way to return....good double-dip for you as well MrRob, never a doubt..............
mrob2199 says: Kevin I’m still having nightmares about that 3 game whipping you gave me in the playoffs!!! Well done!
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 1:37 PM
I'd like to keep the two 5s and the least damaging discard is 6-8 so I'll keep 5-5-6-7 for 8pts.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 1:40 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
5-5-6-7____12.13+1.17+(-4.65)=8.65____36.6____31.7
5-6-6-7____11.70+1.67+(-5.98)=7.39____36.6____29.3
6-6-7-8____13.09+1.33+(-9.56)=4.86____39.3____25.9
5-6-7-8*____9.48+1.33+(-6.97)=3.84____30.5____22.7

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
5-5-6-7_______40.0____45.0
5-6-6-7_______42.9____47.6
6-6-7-8_______51.4____51.4
5-6-7-8*______45.8____53.8

* unsuited 5-6

5-5-6-7 is best for expected averages by 1.26pts and is slightly best for Win %s and appreciably lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select a 6-8 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.
7______________________1.24
5______________________1.19
6______________________0.97
travelingman2019
513 votes

Joined: December 2018
 
 
 
Monday 4:58 PM
absolutely not, Mike......based on the hand the 68 toss should be the least deadly....the pone could toss fives and start out with a fatal crib if 55 is tossed, we have a 7 so the odds are better that 678 will be the only connectors in the crib.....bottom line is it is only the first hand and if we are to trail because of this, better to be as close as possible for the comeback....