July 21, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
100*-110  ?
32%
24%
16%
14%
10%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 249
scottcribCribbagePro hand. I tossed 7-8. Cut was a 2h. Won the game 121-117 on my crib. Other toss options I considered were 5-5, 8-J, and 5s-Js.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:16 AM
Hold hand for 6 points and toss suited 5-J. Every cut increases the value of this hand to a minimum of 8 points to a maximum of 14.
JQT says: If Pone leads a 6 Card or 7 Card, I suppose this hand is really no more 'dangerous' than the Double Run of (5 5 6 7), but I do like the "safety in numbers" principle that we may derive from holding BOTH of the 5 Cards today. Thus, I would probably rate this hand as my second choice, perhaps tied with (5 5 6 J). We really have no 'good' defensive Pegging Hand today, and so we are forced to find one that is "so bad that it's good"!
Rosemarie44 says: I appreciate your comments. Since I have not engaged in actual play for quite some time, the pegging sequences of the game is not my strong suit.
Ras2829 says: Hi Rosemarie44: Your thinking matches mine! That might not be such a good thing. Who knows?
Rosemarie44 says: Hi Ras: I think that if you agree with me, that's always a good thing!
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:30 AM
Here we go, as Dealer needing Twenty-One Points, which is Five Points Less than our "Three Counts" average of Twenty-Six.

But wait! Pone only needs Eleven Points in order to WIN and Ruin Our Day! But still, that is One Point above Pone Average.

The main issue here is that we have just one way to slow down Pone, and that’s during the pegging.

Yes, the Cut Card indeed may determine who wins this game, and our Crib might (or might not) help us in the long run, but it is only during the pegging when we can actually have an influence over Pone's actual peg movements.

This would tend to suggest that we do NOT retain a hand such as Keep (5 6 7 8), which is rather bunched up. And it might also indicate that we NOT hold Keep (5 5 6 7), either, but more on this later.

We want an "out" card, with something such as Keep (5 6 7 J), but we also hate to Toss (5 8) while holding only Five Points; could we perhaps Keep (5 5 6 J) and Toss (7 8)? Or what about Toss (5 5)?

We also have the very interesting Toss (5 6), ridding ourselves of the "guts" of this otherwise very nice arrangement, while still retaining a nicely-spaced, Four-Point Hand of Keep (5 7 8 J).

The 5 Card is typically a Pegging Liability, but TWO of them as a PAIR do offer some interesting "safety in numbers" possible pegging behavior. Still, I am initially reluctant to the first idea which would have us Keep (5 5 6 J) today. Yet maybe an aggressive pegging stance via Keep (5 5 6 7) is the best way to play defense today?! (Apparently, I don't know if I'm asking or telling.)

Keep (5 5 6 7) and Toss (8 J) is a 'chameleon' of a hand, and is maybe a bit like arriving to the Pegging Party slightly inebriated; but it's not an entirely a crazy way to approach this, because if we peg aggressively enough, and maybe score a (15-2) AND a (31-2), it's a very fancy way to "defend" with "offense"!

One last but vital thing we should do is remember that it is Pone who has the BURDEN of coming up with Eleven Points today! Many of the hands that can "deliver" for Pone will probably consist of runs and/or attempts at Double Runs, and given the cards we were dealt, these will likely take the form of either "small" cards or "Ten" (or "X") cards, cards which may not be ideal for pegging against Keep (5 5 6 7).

Pone cannot likely therefore *afford* to retain the best Pegging Hand, not while sitting at Hole 110! And so it's even likely that a hand such as Keep (5 5 6 J) or Keep (5 5 6 7) could 'pass muster' and do the job for us today!

I'm inclined to retain the cards that are lower in rank here, even though Keep (5 5 6 7) would seem to be a dangerous pegging hand; it is, but perhaps it's not-so-dangerous, not when given Pone's Predicament. And to any onlookers, Toss (8 J) probably looks like we are attempting to 'spike' our Own Crib!

After the Deuce Cut, we are very happy this adds Points to our Hand (it could have been an Ace...), but, if you'll pardon my grammar, it don't add 'squat' to our Crib. But chances are, Pone had to "cough up" something "tasty" to go in there in our Crib in order to retain the best opportunity for winning the game.

Now, our only challenge is to 'peg bravely into that good night,' and make Pone EARN the victory at hand. The fact is, if Pone is 'short' after the Cut, then we can probably 'give up' a few points during the pegging: but certainly no more than a few!

The last thing I think I might say about this relative position is that, if Pone has enough 'oomph' to go out and win, at least we should not go down without a good fight, pegging a few points along the way, and thus reducing the number of Spread Points by which we lose. We are all 'amped up' with 5 Cards, ready to grab that (15-2), and also insanely ready to unload a 5 Card on any Ace or Deuce Lead. Let's Do This Thing!
JQT says: What do we dread here if we Keep (5 5 6 7) or Keep (5 5 6 J)? Pone could very well be holding a 5 Card with three Face Cards, such as Keep (5 J Q K), or Pone could even have Keep (5 5 X X)! In the first instance, assuming the Cut was the "wrong" suit, Pone needing to peg just Two Holes would likely lead the Lone 5 Card. And if we make the 'Percentage Play' and PAIR it, we might prevail against Pone. But in the second instance, if we PAIR the 5-Card Lead, now Pone will peg Pairs Royal and score (15-8), and Pone would now win the game even if actually holding Keep (5 5 9 9)! And as Dealer, we would have pegged Fourteen Holes to no avail, *still* losing the game, and perhaps by only Four Points!
mrob2199
1445 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:33 AM
Optimally we would like to go out here if we obviously hold the pone from 121-the 55 discard gives us a shot at a big crib,and a 6,7,or 8 cut give us a double run in our hand-the 678J should be decent in not getting trapped into unnecessary pegging
Gougie00
5742 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:42 AM
If I put in one 5, why not both?
dec
6373 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:15 AM
Hand kept for defensive purposes. Crib to hopefully put us over the top or real darn close. dec
wasa
3029 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:24 AM
I believe this passes RAS's test for tossing the 5s. Still have potential for 12 points with a 7 or 8 cut, max hand keep was 8 points with double run and I've kept 5 (so less than the 4 point reduction). Second choice was 5-J suited. Didn't really consider 7-8
mfetchCT425
1406 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:15 AM
Liked the magic 11 5-6 for defensive pegging and 3rd best toss to our crib. Only concern here is if pone leads a middle card, so I see the reasoning for keeping the 6-7-8-J so that we can stay away from runs during the pegging. Nice puzzle Scott.
SallyAnn3 says: Ditto :)
james500
3935 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:31 AM
A lovely hand for a different board position.

Plenty of helpful cuts and the 6-5 eleven. Keeping the Jack to escape with might have been prudent though.
Jazzselke
2594 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:41 AM
Pegging is crucial here with our opponent at 110. In a neutral position would hold 5678 and throw 5J,but we are in a precarious spot. In fact I was in a discussion this weekend about sometimes holding a face card to protect against a middle card lead. We are in one of those instances IMO.
SallyAnn3 says: True!
MiketheExpert
1134 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:03 AM
Scoring on this hand is not the primary concern. It is to prevent your opponent from pegging points. So, although my toss of (7 8) is throwing one of the better tosses into my crib, scoring is not my main reason for doing so. I believe it is crucial you keep the pair of 5's in your hand here, as well as the highest card (the J) in order to best prevent any runs from occurring. If you keep a hand such as (5 6 7 8), you have little to no protection if he leads a mid-card here. However, your pair of 5's are MOST effective defensively, and your large card should be enough to help you escape any major damage if he leads a small card. Even if he leads a face card and you hold 2 5's do not reply back with a 5 for 15-2. Reply with the 6 to make the count sixteen. It is all about prevention on this hand.
MiketheExpert says: Also, don't want to mislead you into thinking your score doesn't matter...you are at hole 100, which is approximately 5 pts ahead of pace for average score on your next 3-hand count (including pegging) to get out. We are actually BOTH happy and a little concerned as well to get dealt the hand we did. You are in a good situation, as LONG as you can minimize his scoring on THIS hand. The one thing you can't do anything about is if he is dealt a hand to send him out, so you can eliminate any of these possibilities. At best you have about a 60% chance to win this game no matter what cards you are dealt.
MiketheExpert says: That's probably a little on the optimistic side, considering he is dealer of next hand, and may easily be able to peg out before you get your next count..more like 54-55%
JQT says: There is a definite struggle that exists between playing the percentages vs analyzing the biases: Since we were dealt two 5 Cards but only one 6 Card, the chances that Pone was dealt a 6 Card vs a 5 Card are 50% higher (since three of the former are extant as opposed to two of the latter), and yet the bias for Pone to hold the 5 Card will often somewhat exceed the bias to retain a 6 Card, to wit: imagine if dealt (5 6 6 T J Q), Pone will Toss (6 6)! Therefore, the decision to respond to a Ten Card (or "X") lead with our 6 Card does have some merit. But, will the bias 'make up for' the percentage play? In the aggregate, I still feel that the 5 Card Response and (15-2) here may be correct; in many hands, Pone would also desire to hold a 6 Card, and if our 6 Card Response is PAIRED, we have no good follow-up, and it's a passive response. And as I alluded to in my post today: If we are going to lose anyway, why not 'rack up' as much offense as possible, and try to reduce the Spread Points? It's an interesting pegging dilemma, and yet my experience tells me to trust percentages as being a bit more reliable than player card retention biases.
MiketheExpert says: 2nd choice for me would be a toss-up between 5-5-6-7 and 6-7-8-J.
MiketheExpert says: It is true JQT, the one thing you are worried about is a pair of the 6, whereas at least you can still play your X card if he pairs the J, so it is interesting...The lead of the face card would indicate he should be much more likely to hold a 5 given the retention bias, but a tricky player could lead the face card from other holdings, and if he held BOTH a 5 and a 6 he would be likely to lead this holding a 4, and possibly a 7 as well.
MiketheExpert says: *pairs the J should read pairs the 5
MiketheExpert says: Assuming this cut of 2c as per CHOD...if n/d holds X-4-5-6, this is seven points, and he is currently 11 away from getting out. I will assume he is going to lead the X card here. So you, holding 5-5-6-J, if you reply with the 6, the game will be over as he will pair it and you have no reply. Let's say you reply with the 5 instead for 15-2. Follows X-5-5, I am quite sure again he will pair the 5 here. He is now 2 hole scores away from winning this game -- So clearly your triple of the 5's loses, as he still has his 6 to score 31. And if it went X-5-5-J go, you are left with a 5 and 6, while he has to lead from a 4 and 6 remaining. If he makes the proper lead of 4 here, it is over as he has a scoring response with any play. However, if he now leads the 6 and you pair it, followed by the 4 and another run...you should now probably WIN the game, as he is 2 holes short from getting out. Question: Would it be a mistake for n/d to lead the 6 rather than the 4 on the 2nd round of pegging here after you have shown 5-J? I would lead the 4 myself, but after this, replying with the 5 for 15 is the only way you would have had a shot to win.......
MiketheExpert says: Worst lead for you that pone can lead here is I think the 7...But the 7 lead is even worse for you if you hold (5 6 7 8).
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:41 AM
Funny, I don't see a lot of people defending the double run, despite knowing that we have to get 21 points in this round plus the next. It seemed like the obvious starting point for me and then consider if any other hold would give me some critical situational advantage. I didn't see it.
JQT says: If we get to score both our Hand and Crib as Dealer, we shall sometimes ALSO get to score our Hand as Next Non Dealer: Thus, the Dealer Net Average Total of Sixteen, added to the Pone Net Average Total of Ten Points, equals the "Twenty-Six Theory" of Cribbage, or what are often dubbed the "Three Counts." Should we get to tally our "Three Counts," this Average of Twenty-Six Points exceeds the distance we need to cover, and therefore it *might* be the case that our scoring need not attain those averages in order for us to win. The main risk would come if our Opponent, having failed to go out during This Deal, would peg out as Next Dealer, which is a very valid concern. Still, as the Dealer, we do have a chance of getting our entire "Three Counts" tallied during the course of the Current Deal and Next Deal combined.
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:31 AM
All true but the 26 theory assumes tallying the highest point totals. If we intentionally hold suboptimal hands for some perceived strategy we make it less likely to achieve the average.
Ras2829
5166 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 10:35 AM
This is one of the exceptions to the Big Hand Rule (about 5-7% of hands). It took me years to recognize that extending the 3-card run by the fourth card and discarding 5-X to own crib would be preferable to discarding 5-5, second choice this date. The combined values of 5-6-7-8 will out distance the 5-5 discard to crib. With opponent 11 points from winning on this deal, will choose an optimal strategy to include the pegging. A few reasonably safe pegs would be a good thing on this deal at the same time limiting opponent to no more than 7 points. It makes no difference the strategy chosen, the longer run will have the greater combined value (net pegs, hand score, and crib score) give the edge by a full point. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. The lure of those double runs had caused me to write a paper years ago titled "Double-run Hypnosis". If you would like to read that paper, it is available on www.cribbage.org or email raswino29@outlook.com.
Ras2829 says: BTW certainly the 5-J has the highest average of the 5-X discard choices to own crib. Even so, the 5-6-7-8 has the higher combined value with the discard of any 5-X combination. If not able to toss 5-J as here, 5-K and 5-10 because of the frequent 10-K discard have slightly higher value than does 5-Q.
SallyAnn3 says: I'm sticking with you lol!
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 12:27 PM
Nice puzzle. Several good options, but every one depends on luck to pay off, most on a good cut, but for me I'm gambling that pone sluffs off some X cards to facilitate his pegging. We do get to count first next hand, so we are all hoping pone gets much less than average. I see Ras' has some scant evidence he graciously shared; I will file for future. I'm also happy to see my choice was at least his second choice.
MiketheExpert says: I think this would also be my 2nd choice, also I chose the pair of 5's with the high card as my 1st :) Close between this one and the double run!
SallyAnn3
916 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 12:49 PM
I went with the long run, and a 5 face in my crib to go big if she didn't hit 121.
scottcrib
1648 votes

Joined: August 2019
Wednesday 2:10 PM
I'm glad to have contributed two good puzzles in a row. Keep 'em coming Scott (pep talk to self).
Ras2829 says: Hi scottcrib: This is a particularly good puzzle as it mirrors real game choices. This hand or similar shows up quite frequently; so any lessons learned this day have wide application.
Coeurdelion
5606 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:04 PM
I'll compare 5C-6-7-8 (5S-J), 6-7-8-J (5-5), 5-5-6-J (7-8) and 5-5-6-7 (8-J):

5C-6-7-8: 6pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 13pts

6-7-8-J: 5pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 13¾pts

5-5-6-J: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 12½pts

5-5-6-7: 8pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.52) = 11½pts

Potential:

5C-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/10/12/14pts with 2222, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 23 cuts.

6-7-8-J: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 55, 666, 777, 888, 9999, JJJ = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 8/10/12pts with 55, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 15 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

5-5-6-J: Improves with 4444, 55, 666, 777, 9999 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12/14/16pts with 4444, 55, 777 + 15xXs = 24 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

5-5-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/16/17pts with 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 888 + 15xXs = 34 cuts.

Position:

Pone only needs 11pts to go out so I'll play major Defense.

Pegging:

5-6-7-8 will normally peg best but playing Defense I think 5-5-6-J and 6-7-8-J will peg best.

Summary:

6-7-8-J is best for starting value by ¾pt over 5C-6-7-8 while 5C-6-7-8 has guaranteed improvement and 23 cuts for 9-14pts. 5-5-6-7 has 42 cuts for improvement and 34 cuts for 12-17pts but it would be difficult to peg Defensively with this hand. Even so I'll throw the 8-J and hope for a good cut.
HalscribCLX
5329 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:30 PM
At 100*-110 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %____W2 %
5C-6-7-8___9.57+(-2.13)+6.82=14.26____29.3____43.5
6-7-8-J____7.35+(-2.13)+8.62=13.84____26.4____41.2
5-5-6-J____9.59+(-2.11)+6.28=13.76____29.7____43.7
5-5-6-7___12.22+(-1.96)+3.09=13.35____23.5____45.6

Defense_______L1 %____L2 %
5C-6-7-8_______43.5____46.4
6-7-8-J________43.1____49.5
5-5-6-J________40.5____46.3
5-5-6-7________40.2____45.4

5C-6-7-8 is best for expected averages by 0.42pt. and although 5-5-6-J is very slightly best for Win %s and 5-5-6-7 is slightly lowest for Loss %s I'll select 5S-J to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play a Safe strategy to the lead
MiketheExpert says: Hmmm...the results here are very interesting indeed. (5C-6-7-8) and (5-5-6-7) are VERY close in win% for both 1st and 2nd deals...but (5-5-6-7) and 5-5-6-J) are close in loss% as being the better choices here. And (6-7-8-J) do not show as good numbers as I had anticipated....With the overall numbers, I think I'll stick with (5-5-6-J) as best for me:) Although what this tells me is that you are essentially talking to the gods and hoping for a little luck to go your way, no matter which one of these 4 holds you end up keeping!...Nice hand today Scott, as it has caused all our star quality played to go off in random directions here. But I would have chosen the same toss as you did in the actual game, so at least I'm satisfied that way :)
MiketheExpert says: first sentence - correct (5-5-6-7) to (5-5-6-J)!
scottcrib says: Thanks Mike!