July 22, 2021
37% | |||||
22% | |||||
7% | |||||
7% | |||||
5% | |||||
5% | |||||
3% | |||||
3% | |||||
2% | |||||
2% | |||||
1% | |||||
1% | |||||
0% | |||||
| Total votes: 240 | |||||
| guideontheside | Had this situation twice last night. Ugh! |
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JQT 4143 votes Joined: October 2008 |
Thursday 3:03 AM
When we have two PAIRS, and when we ignore suits (as we can do during our investigation today), we shall have Eight Discard Choices.
We'd like to become the Next Dealer from well beyond Hole 70, the Third Street PAR Hole, and this looks readily achievable. Since we are so close, I think we can adopt a *defensive* posture here. Three of these seem to be viable today: Toss (A 4), Toss (4 Q), and Toss (A Q). The other five choices involve giving away a 5 Card or a PAIR, and there's no profit in that! The risk of Toss (A 4) allows use to begin with Six Points, while the other two discards have us start with just Four Points. Since we have decided to defend, let's look at the last two ideas. Of course, we shall probably throw unsuited cards when we decide, unless we are wanting to hone our Fake Flush pegging acumen. Toss (4 Q) probably has some Negative Delta, as we have a PAIR of each rank, and we were also dealt an Ace and a 5 Card. But Toss (A Q) seems even safer. On the surface, it would seem that Toss (A Q) is simply better. When we combine this thought with the desire to be defensive, that clinches it! After the 7 Card Cut, let's lead a 4 Card from our PAIR. |
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james500 3922 votes Joined: June 2013 |
Thursday 3:19 AM
A different decision, but the same observation as John: I have a Queen and a 4 in my hand, so the Q and 4 I discard are less likely to be matched in the crib. I also have an Ace and a 5 further reduces the number of crib friendly cards in circulation.
4 lead from 4A combo. |
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mrob2199 1434 votes Joined: February 2009 |
Thursday 3:39 AM
All out offense here from this position-we want to get as far as we can over 70 to guard against that potential poor hand we seem to deal ourselves on fourth street way too many times-dealer is only at 53 so not too concerned with the A4 toss JQT says: Given that we have nearly Half a Street Lead, and that the Dealer is way back at Hole 53, it probably does make sense to play OFFENSE and seek a SKUNK here. I opted instead for a defensive approach, but that was after mostly looking at just our own position. This defense vs. offense issue relates to many relative scores, and whether we seek to merely defend our lead, or whether we wish to opt for the more aggressive approach and maybe even go for the SKUNK, which is well within our grasp today. mrob2199 says: JQT I don’t really see a skunk as a very realistic possibility here-we are only 14 ahead and it is THEIR crib,and we only have a 6 point hand while discarding at least 2-I’m just trying to build a little equity in case I deal myself a poor hand in one of my last 2 deals MiketheExpert says: I did not have the skunk in mind per se either, but I am already so close to the hole 70 mark, and I consider him to be only 7 points off from his 3rd street hole 60 position, where an average score for him would be 15-16 pts with it being his crib. The 14-point gap is not as "BIG" as it looks here...and so I think defense to "PROTECT" our lead is the proper way to go. fentesk says: I don't have anything to add, but appreciate this discussion as this was going to be my question, at what point do we look forward to fourth street and jump to offense. I chose the Q-4 defensive hold, but the comment about defending against the eventual poor deal resonates with me. It's a different kind of defense than we usually talk about, but I think I'm convinced I should be thinking about defending against the whims of the deck here and giving myself some cushion. fentesk says: That was supposed to say Q-A discard was selected... MiketheExpert says: If I had gotten a better cut with this particular hand, such as filling the double run, or even cutting another ace....my mindset is shifting to offense now to try and run away as I already have a big hand. The 7 only adds 2 pts, and so dealer can come close to catching me with just a little more than an average deal here...so I'm still leaning towards preventing his score after this cut. cribbagepogo says: But an A4 in dealer's crib? MiketheExpert says: no, meant with the (A Q) toss, sorry. SallyAnn3 says: hmmmmm..second day in a row that both Fetch and I went against you!
mrob2199 says: This was a very good example of positional cribbage Sally-if I weren’t going all out offense the 445Q is almost a no brain keep SallyAnn3 says: Drives me nuts that I cant learn position. I looked at this as defense....dont let them get closer since I have a decent enough lead :( MiketheExpert says: Sally, that's the way I am looking at today's position as well....But as you can see, there are some positions, including today, where MORE than one strategy is feasible, and mrob's strategy of all-out offense also has a certain logic and sense behind it....Ras seems to agree, however it so happens that in either case, it seems as if the (A Q) would be the preferred toss here, because of the increased potential for a high score and a better pegging hand anyway by tossing the more DEFENSIVE (A Q)....so you get the best of both worlds here today by this toss, and the flexibility to change your strategy as well during the course of the hand! JQT says: Both winning SKUNKS and avoiding being SKUNKED are what "pay the rent" for the Cribbage Player who pursues this game for stakes. If we add up all of our winnings from "normal" games, it is not uncommon to find that just a few additional SKUNKS in our favor will usually be equal to or exceed all of the winnings from those "typical" games. In fact, the only way to "Make Cribbage Pay For Itself" is to rack up those SKUNKS! And recognizing when an opportunity first legitimately presents itself is crucial. If we can become the Dealer with an appreciable lead in Cribbage, a condition that I based my first-in-a-series of unpublished (being as they are also as-yet unwritten) Cribbage Novels called, "Ahead and Dealing" . . . then we shall want to press this advantage AS SOON AS it becomes readily apparent that such a SKUNK victory is possible. Prior to arriving on Second Street, this is very difficult, for we can find that in games we have lost, in a significant number of these, we shall have once been ahead by half a street (or about Fifteen Points) or even more in many of them. But in terms of taking on added risk, this does become the ideal Relative Position in which acting upon even a small advantage in our positional struggle can begin to show some concrete results later on down the road. The key, I believe, is to "lean into" the risk in proportion to the perceived possible advantage (and of course we should begin to hedge or defend if the opposite condition becomes the case), and in this way it becomes like any other investment strategy. Thus, as Pone at a score such as (67-53*), this becomes one of those possible early moments in which switching from a Defensive Posture to an Offensive Approach may begin to be justified by its much larger pay-off. We can accept the added risk of turning our significant advantage back into a "normal" game, with perhaps once again having only equal chances of winning and losing, if it can indeed give us some higher probability of becoming a successful SKUNK in-the-making. And while I agree with what has been said with the small likelihood of this game actually becoming a SKUNK, what I meant to point out is that such an early indication of trying to anticipate turning this game into a SKUNK win would be my reason for switching, if I then decided to change from Defense to Offense PRIOR to my discard decision. Based on the Cut Card, we could then either *press* our Offensive maneuver, or we could switch back and peg Defensively if it became warranted. SallyAnn3 says: Thanks for making me feel better, Mike :) |
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Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
Thursday 4:05 AM
I tossed the safer cards A-Q to dealer. This hand starts with 4 points and has a maximum of 14 points. Only 8 cards keep the hand at 4 points (8888,9999). At this moment we have a good lead, I'd like to keep it. |
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zeke76 1395 votes Joined: August 2018 |
Thursday 4:15 AM
What Rosemarie said.
Sky is less smoky today. Eolus619 says: Morning…i am taking a guess that the smoke you refer to is from the wildfires out west that has been pushed , by aloft easterly winds, as far east as NY state. The Bootleg fire in Oregon is so large now it is creating its own weather pattern. Here is a link showing the pyro cumulus cloud generated by it. The “stem” is the rising smoke and the “mushroom” is the Weather cloud. All this makes the fire’s intensity and ability to spread rapidly quite unpredictable .
https://apnews.com/article/science-fires-environment-and-nature-oregon-wildfires-3255d07c698462a9221c090f212ac98e |
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Gougie00 5729 votes Joined: March 2008 |
Thursday 5:03 AM
I went wide as possible. Lead the 4. |
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scottcrib 1635 votes Joined: August 2019 |
Thursday 5:16 AM
Echo. |
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mfetchCT425 1398 votes Joined: February 2009 |
Thursday 6:20 AM
Like to keep the touching cards 4-4-5 together here for a chance to break this game open with a 6 or 3 cut. A-Q is a top 10 defensive discard. Rob’s write-up above is very interesting and food for thought. Will lead from power today with a 4. mfetchCT425 says: Also lots of negative delta today for the A-Q toss with us having two of the 4s out of circulation. SallyAnn3 says: Congrats on SILVER in last night's ACC tourney, Mike. You're sneaking up to first. Only 8 days to go! dec says: I played in the room that Jim Correa notched first but I did manage 3rd with fourteen game points. Mike and me have six opportunities as now to play with eight tourneys left on the season. I will just say I am in the top three at least. dec SallyAnn3 says: You're both excellent players, both live and online--so is Jim. It will be a battle, and I 'm glad that I know all of you (and several on here) in real life. I can "hear" and 'see" you when you comment! |
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MiketheExpert 1121 votes Joined: April 2021 |
Thursday 6:34 AM
With this relative position and score, I am perfectly content with slowing the game down as much as possible. Let's discard the (A Q) (different suits, of course, with everything being equal). I'm even content with (4 Q) as my second choice, but why not give myself a better chance at a cut that will improve my hand anyway if I can discard such a defensive throw relatively safely, which is made better by the fact that I hold a pair of 4's and another Q in my hand. Lead a 4 and only take relatively safe pegs....This is one of those situations where you may not even want to triple a 4 if he pairs it as your response....Not even sure it is worth risking the very low chance that he might have the "Fourth" Four here! MiketheExpert says: If I was playing the "bot", I definitely wouldn't triple the 4 here....lol. fentesk says: Good to know the bot's tendency to play a quad four isn't just for me. Of course, it seemingly holding 4-4-5-6 once a game makes that more likely. MiketheExpert says: It may just "seem" to me that it happens more often than it should, but I'm not strictly sure if this is based on fact or just a feeling. I "sense" that a quad seems to happen about twice as frequently as it "should" when playing the bot online...let's say once every dozen or so games, whereas in reality maybe it should happen 1 in every 25, but I don't have any facts to back it up, or even any evidence to know how frequently it SHOULD happen on a per deal basis. JQT says: When we go from being on foot, to horse and buggy, to a Cadillac doing one hundred and five, those telegraph poles (telephone, cell towers) do seem to go by like a picket fence! Realize that when we play a Cribbage Program or play Cribbage online, we no longer have the burden of human dealing of the cards, and we might also often use an "auto-count" feature, which further 'speeds up' the game. And thus, in the realm of spotting peculiar plays or rare occurrences, it is only natural that a Cribbage Player who is used to human play will begin to experience more possible anomalies when playing the game online or via a program. It is often 'going by' at twice the rate of speed, and so some of this effect of feeling like the program has an unnatural amount of rare plays or hands is to be expected, as we are consuming each game at about twice the rate or speed as we have grown accustomed to. What Hal and I did (and it was his idea) back in those early days was to note not just how often, but what percentage of the time you or your opponent would either pick up or end up with say a Dozen-Point Hand! Now we are really measuring something. But it also doesn't take long for an experienced and seasoned player to first recognize that something is amiss when an exorbitant number or amount of high-scoring hands are occurring! But even if this is not the case, it could seem that way if we are not used to the higher pace of play. MiketheExpert says: This is a very good point JQT...If you play games at twice the normal rate (which I'm sure is much faster than doing live play), just having more of those experiences occur in the same amount of TIME can make it seem like it is happening more frequently than it should....More craziness abounds today at ecribbage! I am just on my 2nd game, and I already had pegging quad occur (in my favour.) Plus, I tossed AA into the computer's crib, cut a 6 to get a 24-pt hand, and on the same deal he tossed AA, and scored a 12pt hand AND a 12pt crib...Go figure! |
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wasa 3017 votes Joined: November 2014 |
Thursday 7:14 AM
Toss wide A-Q and keep the potential for the double run with a 3 or 6 cut. Briefly considered keeping A-4-5-Q in case a T or face card cut but like the potential killer hand with a 6 cut |
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SkyView 51 votes Joined: July 2021 |
Thursday 7:14 AM
Considering the potential of a double run, and choosing what not to put into the opponents kitty, there really is one choice...one of the ladies has to go...which leaves the Ace , so back to the lady card ... not going to be the same suit as the ace. scottcrib says: Welcome to CHOD! SallyAnn3 says: Welcome Sky View :) Ras2829 says: Hi SkyView: Always nice to welcome a new rider on this speeding train. Hang on and enjoy the ride! |
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Ras2829 5153 votes Joined: November 2008 |
Thursday 7:58 AM
Looking at the pegs, seeing these six cards, and after the cut am choosing offense to include the pegging. Will lead a four, would triple if paired, would take the five pegs if dealer responded with a six on my four lead. Would not pair a five if dealer played a five on my four spot. Would advance the count by playing the Queen on most other responses. Am not thinking of a skunk win at this point. Would be doing so if 24 points up. The discard choice would remain the same in any case. Goodbye A-Q! MiketheExpert says: I would also play the 5 for 15 if dealer responded with a 6 on the 4 lead, and I "might" triple the 4 as well because it is probably the % play, but I wouldn't feel good about it :) Eolus619 says: Hi Ras..You choosing offense from this board position makes me think it is worth pointing out the importance of being 1st deal from 70 plus ( more plus the better !) To make the point, I suggest a player keep track ( for at least ten games ..more is even better ) of who deals first from 70+ and then who ends up winning the game. Those W/L numbers will tell a tale. Today..if the score ends up after this hand 77*-69 the dealer then has a 75% ( some might say closer to 80%) chance to win this game. Also, Thx for the pegging advice. Eolus619 says: btw….even if the score ends up 73*-69 for next hand the then dealer still retains approximately a 70% chance of winning the game Ras2829 says: Hi Eolus619: Best chance I have to win is to improve my position even when looking at a small hand. Two or three pegs would put me at hole 75-76 with the deck. Dealer of this hands needs about 30 points to have a chance at taking away my positional advantage. Have no argument with those choosing defense. That might work to their advantage. Think the cribbot might choose defense as more cautious than I. Will have to wait and se on that. RAS chooses offense or optimal quite often when HalscribCLX recommends defense. That might have something to do with why I'm up 20 games with Hal in this present series. Was up 30 though the cribbot has been on a tear recently. MiketheExpert says: Interesting analysis RAS, and I can see one or the other working in your favour, because this is one of those I am "chomping at the bit" so to speak to run, but feel at least I should initially be cautious because he is far enough behind that it could be the wisest course...perhaps counterintuitively, if he happened to be a little "closer to me", maybe only 10 pts behind, I actually might have a MORE aggressive frame of mind, thinking every hole I can get past 70 and "widen" the gap is that much more valuable. But on this hand, if I cut an A,2,3,4,5,6, or Q...I'm switching to offense as now I might have "skunk" aspirations in mind :) |
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dec 6357 votes Joined: April 2008 |
Thursday 2:45 PM
Late night last night, long day for work. So defense here with a fourteen point play still possible. Four pick a four leade. dec SallyAnn3 says: Congrats on BRONZE last night. Tell me that you are happy that I am moving up Wednesday nights to 10 pm :) So far, no one has complained lol. That will likely change when the change actually happens on Tuesday the 2nd and Wednesday the 3rd (my 42nd anniversary!) |
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Coeurdelion 5594 votes Joined: October 2007 |
Thursday 3:46 PM
We only need 3pts to reach positional hole and opponent is a good way behind. I think we should play Defense here and the most Defensive throw is the unsuited A-Q. A close next best is unsuited 4-Q:
4-4-5-QS: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.33) = -½pt A-4-5-Q: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.46) = -½pt Potential: 4-4-5-QS: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/10/14pts with AAA, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, QQ = 18 cuts. A-4-5-QD: Improves AAA, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 9999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 3333, 44, 555, 6666 + 14xXs = 30 cuts. Position: We're 3pts short of 3rd street positional hole and Dealer is well behind so I'll play Defense. Pegging: I think probably A-4-5-QD will peg slightly better than 4-4-5-QS with 3 low cards and a high card. Summary: The starting value for each hand is the same (although Schell puts A-Q at 0.13pt better) but 4-4-5-QS has more cuts for improvement and 18 cuts for 8-14pts although A-4-5-QD has 30 cuts for 7-10pts and should peg slightly better. Both hands will have negative delta as we hold another Q and another pair and 15-2pts potential. So I'll throw the A-QD. |
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HalscribCLX 5317 votes Joined: February 2008 |
Thursday 3:52 PM
At 67-53* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Dlr's Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total___W4 %____W5 % 4-4-5-QS___7.13+(-2.37)+(-3.88)=0.88____35.3____73.6 A-4-5-Q*___7.00+(-2.74)+(-3.93)=0.33____34.7____73.5 4-5-Q-Q____8.22+(-2.63)+(-5.51)=0.08____38.6____76.4 Defense______L4 %____L5 % 4-4-5-QS______3.2_____6.4 A-4-5-Q*______3.7_____6.9 4-5-Q-Q_______4.1_____6.3 * unsuited 4-4-5-QS is best for expected averages by 0.55pt. and although 4-5-Q-Q is appreciably best for Win %s4-4-5-QS is slightly lowest for Loss %s so I'll select A-QD to discard. After the 7 cut I'll lead a 4 and play Defense: Lead_____________Dealer's Pegging Pts. 4______________________(-1.99) Q______________________(-2.63) 5______________________(-2.92) |
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