July 23, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
33*-36  ?
44%
40%
14%
0%
0%
Total votes: 222
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:13 AM
This position is an excellent example of what appears to be an essentially tied game in which we are the Dealer, and yet Pone may have the positional advantage.

For it is always the FIRST player who becomes the Dealer at or beyond the Par Holes of Hole 18, 44, 70, and 96, for First, Second, Third, and Fourth Streets, respectively, who has the Positional Advantage.

Notice that when Pone is within Ten Holes of such a target, this may indicate that, as the Dealer, we may already not hold the Positional Advantage, and as such, we are probably not in control of this game!

With Pone at Hole 36 and having a potential known average of about Ten Points coming, this means our Opponent is within "easy striking distance" of the next positional target or Second Street Par Hole 44.

Assuming Pone reaches this target, we would like to then reach Ten Holes shy of the Third Street Par Hole 70 (Hole 60, or further along) by the completion of this deal. And yet this goal of ours is nearly a whole street in the distance!

The hand initially looks rather mundane, and either we Toss (2 6), or Toss (2 Q), or Toss (6 9), but choosing between these three ideas is a bit more intricate than it might immediately appear.

I am generally fond of retaining the longer RUN in most cases, as it extends our available helpful Cuts a bit further, so I am drawn toward Keep (9 T J Q) and Toss (2 6).

As far as Toss (6 9), we know that in his "Star Power" Treatise, RAS "lumps" this discard into the "Also Ran" category, and I tend to agree with this. Another way to begin with a 'static' Five Points is after Toss (2 Q), but this seems to both weaken our Hand and negate our Crib.

And so, let's Toss (2 6), and try to prevent this positional crisis from becoming too much worse. That's not a very lofty goal, but it may be realistic.

After the King of Diamonds Cut, we hold a King-High Straight, which beats any three-of-a-kind. (And if that didn't make you laugh, then our eventual Crib probably will.)
JQT says: I think that Toss (2 6) is superior to Toss (2 Q) here, and I would definitely put Toss (2 Q) into the 'Runner-Up' place today. Therefore, of the top three choices, I would thus allow Toss (6 9) to (perhaps uncomfortably with many other players) slide into third place today. Just as those Three Cousins we know as Toss (3 4), Toss (6 7), and Toss (J Q) are probably the best way to profitably discard "No Points," I similarly believe that Toss (6 9) is perhaps the worst way to discharge or 'dispatch of' Two Points into our Crib. If you train with the Max Kassler Cribbage Solitaire Tool, you learn to love the abundant potential "energy" that is often contained, bound up, and often unleashed when throwing "small" cards as Dealer into the Crib, and so a discard such as Toss (2 6), which interestingly starts off with a Crib Value of only about One Point less than Toss (6 9), can often surprise us beyond our expectations. What do we "give up," and more importantly, what might we gain by such a discard? We start with Zero Points in the Crib after Toss (2 6), so in a way, it cannot get any worse! What we "give up" is really not a whole lot, considering that we are starting with a known 'dud' to begin with! But what we may gain in the Hand from the four-card RUN is that now Sixteen Cuts (5555, 999, TTT, JJJ, QQQ) or 16 DIV 46 equals 0.348 or about 35% of the time, we shall more-than Double our Hand, and boost it to a solid Ten Points. If we Toss (6 9) however and produce just One Point more in the Crib, now we have Seventeen Cuts (3333, 5555, TTT, JJJ, QQQ) that can boost our Hand but only up to Eight or Nine Points, so it seems about equal if we look at everything except the pegging. Here is where it gets very interesting! The harsh reality is that the four high-ranking cards may actually peg better than the hand with the Lone "small" card, as this is a known liability. There are some real quirks in Cribbageville when it comes to the pegging, and this gets expressed in some bizarre ways. For instance, when we hold four cards that all have a high pegging value such as (A 2 3 5), it's sometimes astonishing how poorly a hand such as this can perform during the pegging. And at the other extreme we see that sometimes four high-ranking cards such as (9 T J Q) or even a Double Run of "X" Cards, cards which all have a low pegging value, can often endure surprisingly well during the pegging! And it's not easy to understand and grasp this finicky facet of Cribbage, nor have I seen anyone or any place that teaches this intricacy, for it is very subjective and also difficult to comprehend. I suppose if someone were to author an article on pegging tips or add a chapter to a book and categorize specific Cribbage Hands and show examples of pegging demonstrating this phenomenon, it would become the first article or book to do it.
MiketheExpert says: Hi JQT. Your comment about all cards of high pegging value rings true with me as dealer. Something like (A 2 3 5) can definitely put up a lot of points, but it is not a very good defensive holding...it has the potential to give away a lot of pts as well without having a satisfactory response in many situations, so pegging "value" as a whole should most definitely take this into consideration in many different positions, especially when you are talking about "optimal" value.
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 3:16 AM
I'll keep all five points together, rather than spread them with 2-T-J-Q (6-9).
mrob2199
1435 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 3:24 AM
I like spreading the cut options out here-a 3,5,10,J or Q give us at least 8 in our hand ,and a 6 or 9 give us at least a 6 point crib,while a 7 or 8 gives us crib potential
SallyAnn3 says: I flipped..agree with you today, but not Fetch. Need balance lol
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Friday 3:56 AM
I like splitting the cards by holding 3 points in the hand and 2 points in the crib.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:13 AM
I seem to be lucky as far as face card pegging. Expansion and potential . dec
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:35 AM
chance for a 12 hand
scottcrib
1636 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Friday 5:24 AM
For me it's either all the points in my hand and none (a Covid 19 if you will) in my crib or some in my hand and some in my crib. I don't like Covid 19 cribs, so split it up.
SkyView
51 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Friday 6:02 AM
Straights always have higher odds of getting a favorable cut, but giving up one end of the straight to ensure that extra point if the cut isn't favorable. Need to keep the 9/6 and 9/10/J straight... so the lady has to go, along with the 2 that doesn't benefit the hand.
SkyView says: My bad ... I didn't see it was my crib. I probably would have thrown the 9/6 to the crib. Keeping the 2 for counting ... and the straight.
Eolus619
1342 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Friday 6:08 AM
The crib is an extension of my hand. I am familiar with the concept of “synergy” discards to one’s own crib but I do not see the discards of either 2-6 or 2-Q having synergy potential. Keep + crib starts with five and gets cut help from 9/13 ranks ( hand or crib)
Eolus619 says: upon further review …the three choices so far all have a max potential of 17 ( hand + crib) ..so I predict Ras will consider pegging values to break the tie..I have no idea which of the three will peg best https://cliambrown.com/cribbage/?data=2S6D9CTCJHQDY
MiketheExpert says: Hi Eolus. Didn't look at this beforehand, but I figured 6 9 would be best for highest average, although I thought (2 Q) might work for the "Hail Mary" option because of your max hand score. However, it seems like (6 9) has been selected here for all 3 options, so I guess that is re-affirming :)
mfetchCT425
1399 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 6:12 AM
Debated back and forth on this between the 6-9 toss (better crib discard, but weakened hand) or 2-Q toss (weakened crib toss, but better hand potential). Decided to keep the points in hand today for chance of 10/12 points.

Nice puzzle by Ras today as this seems to be a common theme/predicament in many games.
Eolus619 says: Mike..from this keep what would be your response to an Ace lead? & would you pair a six lead ? thx
Eolus619 says: or reply with a nine for 15-2 or do something else ?
MiketheExpert
1122 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 6:49 AM
Debated between keeping 5 pts in my hand (tossing 2 Q), or throwing the "soft" 2pts (6 9) in my crib. I am VERY unlikely to make it to hole 50 after this deal, so I would like to at least try to make it to hole 44. Let's toss the (6 9) into the crib while maintaining a run and one small card in our hand, which has slightly better defense as well as better scoring potential for the play. Having only 1 small card is more of a liability when you are playing as pone than dealer. The K cut is neither here nor there, only adding a meager 1 pt to our run and not appearing to help our crib toss anyway, so it may be a struggle just to get to that new goal. In most cases I will try to follow with the 2 early in the play, including pairing a 2 opening lead, and I would take a chance and pair the opening lead of a face card as well.
MiketheExpert says: There must be at least one voter who thought they were keeping a flush! (2 9 T Q)?? Actually surprised there are not more, I just about did it again too....I really should make my screen larger, one of these days it is going to happen to me :)
RubyTuesday
914 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Friday 6:54 AM
I felt that the possible advantage accruing from having 6 9 in my crib outweighed keeping 6 9 10 J in hand and throwing 2 Q.
zeke76
1396 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Friday 7:15 AM
Seems like a pick’em no?
MiketheExpert says: I consider the 2 top votes to be very close, since keeping the 5 pts gives you a better high-end hand potential (10/12 pts) and maybe a better shot to get to hole 50, but I don't like the pegging hold as much...so I will go for the spread of a "modest" point total and better pegging hand, only by a very slight margin.
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Friday 7:26 AM
6-2 looks like something I'd like to throw in my opponent's crib and the 6-9 need to stay together. I threw Q-2 in hopes of a 3 magically appearing.
Fender Bass says: Hmmm...I wonder why my hand didn't appear next to my comment?
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Friday 7:30 AM
Let's try this to see if it comes up now.
Fender Bass says: There we go.
SallyAnn3 says: Hi Fender, I learned (finally) that when you go to see the results right after you've made your choice, you have to choose "on to the results" right under the cards, not "Today's results.
Fender Bass says: Thanks!
SallyAnn3 says: You're welcome :)
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Friday 8:16 AM
Kept all of the points intact with this toss
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Friday 8:35 AM
Same comment as mfetch. Is 5+0 better than 3+2? I'm not a great pegger but I think 6-9-T-J will peg better than 2-T-J-Q based on what I have learned here.
MiketheExpert says: I think it will work better against some leads (certainly against a 7 or 8 lead I would rather have 6-9-10-J), but not against most leads.
wasa says: Hmmm. On the lead of an A,2,3,4 I'd play my 9. On a 5 lead the J (as RAS says it's the one dealer is most likely to put into crib). 6 lead I again play 9. 7 or 8 lead gets the J. 9 lead gets my 6. T or J lead I'd probably double it (although maybe that would be a bad decision if I get tripled I have no reply). Q or K lead gets my 9.
MiketheExpert says: Almost the same, but what I was thinking against 7 or 8 is actually to respond with the 9 on a 7 lead, and maybe the 6 on an 8 lead, although I think the J is a decent reply as well to an 8 lead. Playing (2 T J Q), I think I would actually play my 2 next for safety on a 7 lead, but probably still the Q on an 8 lead.
MiketheExpert says: Maybe play a face card over the 3, because you have already thrown a 2 in the crib, and he will likely lead the 3 from a pair :-)
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Friday 12:40 PM
Lots of 6's and 9' get thrown into dealers crib by pone.
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Friday 10:38 PM
With opponent already at hole 36, needing to reach 2nd Street CPZ 43-47, am choosing offense strategy to include the pegging. That being the case, the four card sequence has the greater combined value. Why might that be? Individually 9, 10, J, or Q are not cards of high pegging value. Collectively they are the best of the lot among these six cards as can pair or score a run on either end of the hand. That adds nearly 3 peg points for dealer. In addition 2-6 average to own crib is 4.154 (628) and 2-Q average is 3.859. Although 6-9 scores a bigger crib on average than does either the 2-6 or 2-Q, four consecutive cards allow for 16 cards for a hand score of ten points. The edge on pegging, potential hand value, and the + margin of 2-6 to crib is enough to overcome the crib average for 6-9 of 5.114.