September 10, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
89*-90  ?
33%
33%
27%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 202
mrob2199
770 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 3:24 AM
From 32 out I think we have to go for the big hand-a 2,5 or 6 cut will give us between 11 and 16-the 3466 has great potential in trapping a 5 versus an inexperienced player as well
JQT
3215 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Friday 3:51 AM
We could Toss (A 4) or Toss (6 6). We don't want Pone to score more than Five Points here, unless we can somehow score about Twenty-Two Holes as the Dealer, which is a real challenge!

Toss (A 4) seems a much better balanced idea today. After the Queen Cut, we can play defense to the lead, and we should NOT panic unless Pone has a Double Run in Face Cards or two or more 5 Cards.
glmccuskey
3453 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Friday 4:35 AM
We need a big hand with non dealer already at 90. With the queen cut adding nothing I think we’re forced to change to defense and hope opponent has a below average hand.
Gougie00
4774 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 4:42 AM
I might learn something today. I saw meh hand and thought maybe the two sixes in the crib might catch something.

Good luck to those playing in Brookline on Sunday. My mommy won't let me play. Something about covid and the Delta variant.
zeke76
1026 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Friday 4:59 AM
What Gougie said.
MiketheExpert
179 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Friday 5:21 AM
Today is the opposite situation of previous game in many respects. We are both over 30 pegs out, but I still have a positional disadvantage, as pone on this hand as a "great" chance of dealing from home 96+ on next hand. With these cards, it is almost assured I will need a full 3 deals including this one to be able to count out. If that is the case, I will not be able to stop n/d from getting "4" hand counts, including 1 crib based on expected averages, so I have to work HARD defensively starting from now. First goal towards this: Keep (3 6 6 K), tossing (A 4) into my crib. I'm not concerned about hand improvement here, I am most concerned about prevent n/d's movement in the pegging game. Although I could keep either (3 4 6 6) with much better max hand potential, or (A 3 4 K) while tossing a pretty good pair (6 6), both of them are much more suited towards an aggressive "pegging" exchange and score in which many pts are needed...I am looking for the opposite. I really want to SLOW the game down here and give myself every chance to get in my FULL hand counts over the course of the next 3 deals (i.e. 3 hands and 2 crib scores), before he gets out first.
scottcrib
691 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Friday 6:09 AM
Looking at the score and my hand, it's defense for me and maybe 6-8 points in the crib.
jdc_wolfpack
78 votes

Joined: June 2021

   
Friday 6:14 AM
Same thoughts as Mike. This hand is too weak to try and take the 32 points we need in our 3 scores, so we play defense here and hope to get to our next set of counts.
mfetchCT425
953 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 6:16 AM
I’m with Rob and Gary today. I think big hand potential of this hold gives us the best chance to steal this game.
james500
2988 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 6:33 AM
I'm in the (A-4) camp.
Eolus619
475 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Friday 6:48 AM
89*-90…105-100*…115*-116…i am on the wrong side of who gets to count first at the end game fulcrum point. I need 118 to be in position to peg out before n/d counts 1st. IMO best way to get 28 points in two hands is keep 3-4-6-6 with cut help from 2,3,4,5,6,7, & 9. Ace & K help my crib. The n/d only needs 21 points from this and next hand to be @ 111 counting first ..so 118 is a must be me and I need 18+ from this hand. 12+ from my hand ..3 from my crib & 3 pegging.
SallyAnn3
462 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Friday 7:08 AM
I'm with the heavy hitters as well. Going big
fentesk
279 votes

Joined: January 2021

   
Friday 7:15 AM
I'm playing defense and slow playing for the future instead of going for it now in search of the big hand. I'll take my chances of A-4 growing in the crib where it scores 8+ almost 1/4 of the time.

The A-K discard lets our hand score 10+ with 10 cuts, which is less often than the A-4 hits in the crib. A-K scores 4 or fewer 3/4 of the time (and 8+ under 10%).

I'm not thrilled with our position, but the fairly strong A-4 discard wins the day for me (and hopefully leads to a win).
jmath714
978 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Friday 7:56 AM
To me this is an easy hold. I want clarity on offense versus defense in the pegging. If I miss, I’m absolutely playing off here.
wasa
2099 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Friday 10:17 AM
Full on defence. Have to slow down my opponent. Not much chance of me going out on the next hand
Fender Bass
84 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Friday 11:49 AM
Well, this was my first impulse 'cause I like to invite all the cards to the party. If I hold the 3 and 6s the K gets left out. Also, it felt like there would be a lot of good cuts available, especially if you remember that you threw 6's.
dec
5385 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 1:23 PM
I like the full offense on cuts and pegging. Side story.. I had this hand during grass roots this week. Score was 112 non dealer them 110 for me. The cut gained nothing in the hand and the crib ended up being two points. I managed to peg on a 6-5-4. They ended up with only eight no cut on it. So this hand can be an excellent pegger. dec
Coeurdelion
4683 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 3:55 PM
I think it will be between 3-4-6-6 (A-K) and A-3-4-K (6-6) and perhaps 3-6-6-K (A-4):

3-4-6-6: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.41) = 7½pts

A-3-4-K: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.76) = 7¾pts

3-6-6-K: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

Potential:

3-4-6-6: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 66, 8888, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/11/16pts with 2222, 333, 5555, 66, 9999 = 17 cuts.

A-3-4-K: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 7777, 8888 + 15xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 6/8pts with AAA, 2222, 444, KKK = 13 cuts.

3-6-6-K: Improves with 2222, 333, 5555, 66, 9999, KKK = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 8/12pts with 333, 66, 9999 = 9 cuts.

Position:

We're 7pts short of positional hole while pone would like to reach 105pts or more this deal. So I'll try to keep Pone short but would like to score well myself. So I'll play cautious offense.

Pegging:

I think A-3-4-K will peg best with three low cards and a high card.

Summary:

3-6-6-K is 1½pts best for starting value but although 3-4-6-6 doesn't have as many cuts for improvement as A-3-4-K it has 17 cuts for 8-16pts with the best maximum at 16pts. So I think I'll throw the A-K.
HalscribCLX
4412 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 4:12 PM
At 89*-90 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W2 %___W3 %
A-3-4-K____4.87+3.39+5.68=13.94____7.7____19.6
3-6-6-K____5.43+2.54+5.33=13.30____6.2____23.9
3-4-6-6____6.91+2.98+3.19=13.08____8.3____20.5

Offense_______L2 %___L3 %
A-3-4-K________23.2___68.0
3-6-6-K________18.2___63.5
3-4-6-6________21.7___65.6

A-3-4-K is best for expected averages by 0.64pt but 3-6-6-K is slightly best for Win %s and appreciably lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select A-4 to discard despite the better expected averages for A-3-4-K,

After the Q cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Ras2829
4225 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 11:21 PM
Choosing offense strategy to include the pegging looking at the pegs, seeing the six cards, and downshifting to defense once seeing that Queen on the deck. Have a four point hand and the Queen seems to be of no help to 6-6 in crib. So limiting n/d movement down board seems best option. Will play off the lead although would play the King on a five lead.