September 13, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by MiketheExpert
89-95*  ?
37%
30%
7%
7%
5%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 210
JQT
3215 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 3:08 AM
We awake to suddenly discover ourselves Pone at Hole 89, on track to reach well past the Fourth Street Par Hole 96 by completion of this deal.

But Houston, we have one Heck of a Problem! The Dealer now sits at Hole 95, at just about that same, aforementioned Fourth Street Par Hole 96. And so, what does this mean?

It means nothing good for us! It means that our *actual* goal in a Positional Struggle here is probably not Hole 96 after all, but possibly Hole 121, or, the Finish Line! That is, unless we can really s-l-o-w d-o-w-n the Dealer, such that this Dealer DOES NOT attain the desired position!

To spell-it-out more clearly and concisely: As Pone, we either need a Thirty-Two-Point total during This Deal, or we need to 'Spike the Dickens' out of the Dealer's Crib with the best "Boat Anchor" we can find!

The worst problem is that we have neither option at our disposal this morning, since even the best possible Cut will not give us Twenty-Eight Points, making an Offensive Attempt virtually useless.

And furthermore, the best Defensive Discard we have at our disposal here is probably Toss (8 9), although Toss (6 8) and even Toss (5 9) should perhaps be considered as well. It just seems untenable.

Since a 7 Card Cut would help us after Toss (8 9) nearly as much as it would after Toss (5 5), this makes Toss (8 9) not just our best option today, but it's really our *only* option.

If you enjoy risky play, we could even consider Toss (8 8) or Toss (5 5) and just try to dodge the likely fallout, but it's simply not in me to play such a style of Cribbage, and I hope it never will be!

But regardless, we're going to need the Dealer to "stumble" in order to have any chance of actually winning this game, so after Toss (8 9), we really do not want a 7 Card Cut! After the King Cut, we got some help, so let's play as defensively as possible, and lead our 8 Card.

If we had Cut something that might have energized the Dealer's Crib, such as that 7 Card or a Ten "T" Card, I might have decided to peg more aggressively today, in order to merely try to reduce the Spread Points by which we are almost certain to lose.

But the King Cut is perhaps our first, albeit small, glimmer of hope!
james500
2988 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 3:21 AM
6-8 seems to be the least bad option, but that's not much of a recommendation.
Relieved with the cut.
glmccuskey
3453 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Monday 4:15 AM
8-9 and hope it misses. I’ll lead a five and peg as defensively as possible. I don’t want to lead the eight and have the dealer play a seven. Then we would be in a world of hurt.
Gougie00
4775 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 5:22 AM
Looking for an ultimate defense strategy here. Not seeing anything obvious like King nine. Definitely not parting with my fives. Taking a chance on 89. Sometimes a king is a card that you're looking for. Lead the eight ditch the fives and hope to live another Day.

Raining like crazy again here in Northern Massachusetts.
dec
5385 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 5:46 AM
Cut a face not a seven. Its some kind of plan anyway. dec
Jazzselke
1890 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 6:13 AM
89 the best defensive throw available unfortunately.
fentesk
279 votes

Joined: January 2021

   
Monday 6:17 AM
I went as defensive as I could here (6-8). We're far more likely to win by slowing the game down at this position than score enough to win by playing offense.

I would not be surprised if 8-9 is a bit better play by the numbers, but I decided to give up ~1 point for my own scoring average to avoid a double ended straight possibility in the crib.
scottcrib
692 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Monday 6:40 AM
No matter whose crib it is, when you have two sets of three cards that go together, it's an educated guess which three to keep together. But that's cribbage - one educated guess after another.

I don't like "cutting both feet off" and tossing one card from each set of three, so that leaves me with tossing two from one of the sets. Therefore, 8-9 is my defensive toss in order to keep the 5-5-6 together.
Eolus619
475 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Monday 6:53 AM
It’s an Eisenhower D Day discard puzzle…best part of a bad bargain. Playing defense ..Some how I would like to end up

..89-95..99*-107..111(+-) - 117* (-) or there about..so 8-9 across the board …”it’s not dark yet but gettin there “
Fender Bass
84 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Monday 9:22 AM
Same
MiketheExpert
180 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Monday 11:00 AM
Echoing most of JQT's comments above on this day...We find dealer right at the "cusp" of 4th street CPZ (95-99), and the big debate is how do we best play this hand. Either "maximum aggression" or "maximum defense" would seem to be appropriate depending on the type of cards we are dealt, and unfortunately this hand seems to enable NEITHER possibility. By a pre-ponderance of the evidence, it would seem we HAVE to play defense, but there is no good way to do it. Thus, if I was going to go "all the way", the safest of ALL tosses we can probably throw here is the (6 8), and is probably what we "should" toss... Only the difference between (6 8) or (8 9) doesn't seem to be quite enough to diminish your hand as much by breaking up the (5 5 6) combo. So I'll play "as much defense as I can reasonably afford" in this instance, which means tossing (8 9) as opposed to the pair (8 8). The K cut is somewhat of a relief to me, as it does not appear to help his crib, at the same giving me a good chance to barely be able to deal from hole 96 starting on next hand. Defense on the pegging, which means not leading a 5, but an 8. I may forgo playing the 6 here, and actually play a 5 next if he responds with 7 for 15-2. If I can't stop him from scoring further, at least I have a chance for rebuttal (by playing my next 5 for 31 or even triples if I'm fortunate enough).
wasa
2099 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Monday 11:12 AM
I want to keep the 6 with my 5s. So either 8-8 and keep 4 points or 8-9 and keep 2 points. Both tosses can result in a 24 point crib (ouch) but I need the extra 2 points now I think. I recall RAS showing that a pair of 8s is often only 2 points. Fingers crossed!
SallyAnn3
462 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Monday 12:19 PM
I figured everything was dangerous, so kept the points.
joekayak
1485 votes

Joined: May 2016

Monday 12:39 PM
DEF as best I can. Will not toss a five. Toss 8-9. Hope it misses-I do have some of the companions to 8-6 in my hand. And hope for a 4 or X cut.
Ras2829
4225 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 9:57 PM
MiketheExpert says nearly all for me. Except RAS will lead the 6 to put a bit of space between remaining cards and since holding a 9. Otherwise would lead a five and try to dump the second five as next card down.