September 24, 2021
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| Total votes: 204 | |||||
| jdc_wolfpack | We'll get the win if we can score our hand. Dealt a hand of middle cards all lined up in a run. What do you retain to peg defensively here? |
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james500 3923 votes Joined: June 2013 |
Friday 3:15 AM
Hide the 5 in my crib where it can't be trapped.
Keep the Jack to escape with if needs be during the pegging. |
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JQT 4143 votes Joined: October 2008 |
Friday 3:16 AM
It's difficult to study our POSITION when we're staring at a 5 Card, a Jack, a Run-of-Five, and a FLUSH! But we MUST do things in proper order in Cribbage.
Our Opponent sits at Hole 109, needing just a Dozen Points to beat us, and it's unreasonable to expect us, as the Dealer, to peg Seven Holes, even if we did Cut a Jack. It would be a mistake of the first order today to be concerned in ANY way with our points! There is probably no way we could find a discard here that would fail to get us to the Finish Line, providing that Pone does not go out FIRST! Thus, it's all about the pegging today. We need to DEFEND as best we can during the pegging, and this determines EVERYTHING about our discard. Our main difficulty is to determine which four of these six cards can best prevent Pone from pegging. Right away, I'm looking at ways of 'ditching' our Main Connector Cards, the 5 Card and/or the 7 Card. Therefore, we might Keep (6 8 9 J) or in desperation we could simply 'dump' our lowest two cards via Toss (5 6). Keep (6 8 9 J) and Toss (5 7) seems appropriate, in order to 'break up' the middle of our hand a bit, and allow for some safe(r) pegging. I really see nothing that compares to this in safety, so away we go. After the Queen of Spades Cut, as the Dealer, we will play as defensively as possible. We must assume that Pone has about Ten Points, and holds something such as Keep (A 4 5 Q), so for example, even if we did hold the 5 Card, after any "X" Card Lead, we should unload our 6 Card, NOT the 5 Card! If Pone leads a 4 Card, we can respond with our 9 Card, etc. The emphasis is on Pegging Safety, and NOT scoring points! Piano classics that we've probably all heard before are up this morning, the first pianist from the Dominican Republic who is still living at age sixty-seven, and the next from France, who died in 1999, and who was all of three feet tall, died a millionaire at age thirty-six, and played a stunning, one-minute, one-note interlude, the third a stride pianist also from France, and finally, none other than Art Tatum, who plays it so well he plays it twice, nine years apart: Michel Camilo "Take Five" https://youtu.be/ezkrkxg536o Michel Petrucciani "Take the A Train" (1998) https://youtu.be/elq5ra9IOBw François Rilhac - F Minor Stride (1987) https://youtu.be/kKAYmxW1gLE Art Tatum plays Tea for Two (1943 - 1952) https://youtu.be/kwk7wXwtjrI Eolus619 says: Fro a musical perspective, one of musics great gifts to the world was the connecting of life’s dots that lead to Strayhorn & Ellington meeting. AND ..the fact that when they f met the first time Strayhorn had the confidence to show Ellington how he would have arranged some of Ellington’s pieces! btw…Strayhorn’s high school also produced Ahmad Jamal & Errol Garner..yikes
Eolus619 says: hmmm..fro should have been from ..geeez ..and the random f…another geeez JQT says: Let's just do some thinking on what would have to happen in order for us, as the Dealer with (5d 6d 7d 8h 9s Jd), to NOT have enough points to go out from Hole 114 today. We can first posit the idea that, unless Pone pegs a Dozen Points, that Pone shall never be able to peg out, and so as the Dealer, we'll peg One Point for either a "go" or for Last Card, as Dealer ALWAYS does. Now, we need Six Points. Suffice it to say that, after a quick scan of these six cards, we should see that there is ALMOST NO WAY to retain less than a combined Hand plus Crib Total of Four Points, although this may be a worthwhile exercise to go through for the new player. Maybe Toss (6 8) or Toss (7 9) should be avoided on this basis, but there are very few ways to NOT ensure at least Four Points. Thus, all we would need is an extra Two Points to come from either: The Pegging; from Our Hand (via the Cut Card), or; from Our Crib (via the Cut Card AND those two cards discarded by Pone). We are trying to minimize pegging, and so it's reasonable to say that, other than our obligatory One Hole, we should not expect to peg as the Dealer. Yet with all of those Fifteen Possible Hands, let's now try to imagine a Cut Card that will not help us: there certainly are a few, if we just examine my chosen hand today of Keep (6 8 9 J), we see that Twenty Cuts (2222, 3333, 4444, QQQQ, KKKK) do not help the hand. Hold that thought. Now, for virtually ANY of the Fifteen Possible Discards, try to imagine two cards discarded by Pone, as well as the addition of a Cut Card, that would NOT add Two Points to this mess! In my own instance of Toss (5 7), we already know that a Dozen Cuts, or more than half of those I just alluded to above that would not help our Hand, will boost our Crib by the amount necessary to win! Thus, we have Eight Cuts remaining (2222, 4444) that so far, add zilch. But wait: we must add Two Cards from Pone's Discard! The combinations get somewhat complex at this juncture, but I dare you to find any Two-Card discard that does NOT make Four Points out of either (2 5 7) or (4 5 7). I'll readily admit that some do indeed exist! But this whole exercise is just to show how exceedingly difficult it would be to NOT get Seven Points as the Dealer with this arrangement of Six Cards today, EVEN IF WE TRIED NOT TO WIN! If you agree with this, you must then also agree that making ANY consideration for scoring enough points today is a misplaced strategy! Summary: We should be entirely focused on inhibiting Pone's Pegging today. Additional Thoughts or Ideas? Eolus619 says: John…your last comment is a point well made and a very worthwhile discussion topic.The subject of board position and relating it to deciding to choose “ O” or “D” has core relevancy to a players success. Yesterday is another good example ..in the face of it being clear ( at least to the 31% of the voters choosing D !) that if current dealer earned the average 16 to reach 111…..then would be counting first next hand …that it then made our score , counting second next hand, far less important unless one could see reaching say 118 by scoring 23 points. Yet offense was the top voted path picked by 36%. It is a fascinating aspect of cribbage (and life !) that two people could be looking at the exact same thing and come away with polar opposite choices as how to proceed. All of us can see the score..not all of us can make the best % decision. I agree with you ..it is D pegging today and imo it was D yesterday for both discard and pegging. |
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Gougie00 5730 votes Joined: March 2008 |
Friday 5:13 AM
I will try it this way. The Jack is my escape card.
Raining again in Northern Massachusetts. Eolus619 says: morning ..your reply to a three lead would be? thx Eolus619 says: morning ..your reply to a three lead would be? thx Eolus619 says: have no idea why it posted three times sorry ..you only need to answer once! Gougie00 says: K-K-K-Katy, beautiful Katy, you're the only g-g-g-girl that I adore. I would p-p-p-play my 7 on a 3 lead. Eolus619 says: clever thx Eolus619 says: upon further review ..Upgraded to VERY CLEVER |
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oc 78 votes Joined: September 2021 |
Friday 5:33 AM
Pone is first to score this round needing 12 points to win, which is a little more than average. If pone completely misses with their hand then it would be nice if we can guarantee going out this round. So I think that our top two priorities are (1) to have a good defensive pegging hand and (2) to have a hand and crib that scores 6.
To keep the best defence on the play, I firmly lean towards breaking up the long run. Since we make 15 in 3 ways, there are still lots of ways to keep 6 points which is plenty to go out. I'm almost immediately ignoring the flush since the extra points don't seem necessary and there are better defensive pegging hands. So I'm mostly considering throwing (7 8) and (6 9). I think both of these play similarly, most of the time leading with an 8 or 9 on low cards. Some of critical hands for pone might be (2 3 4 -) where a 3 lead makes it hard to play most cards. In these situations I like having a 9: if they pair we make 31 with our J and if they make 15 with a second 3 then I think it polarises their hands which is good for us. If I wanted to go for all our defence, ignoring (2), I would definitely keep (6 8 9 J) as we can go 3-9-3-8-2-6 against (3 2 2 x). This seems very sensible and perhaps I'm swayed too much by those few games where I ended up 120-120*, so I'd like the game to be over by the end of this round. SallyAnn3 says: Welcome oc :) SallyAnn3 says: Welcome oc :) Gougie00 says: Obsessive Compulsive? Gougie00 says: Obsessive Compulsive? oc says: Thanks for the welcome!
Definitely obsessive, less compulsive - but OC are just my initials oc says: Thanks for the welcome!
Definitely obsessive, less compulsive - but OC are just my initials fentesk says: It's great having you join us! Putting a value to the relative importance of your (2), Colvert's tables show scoring less than 7 as dealer happens ~3.9% of the time. fentesk says: It's great having you join us! Putting a value to the relative importance of your (2), Colvert's tables show scoring less than 7 as dealer happens ~3.9% of the time. JQT says: I'm 'Obsessive-Compulsive' but not necessarily in that order. 8 - ) With regards to the puzzle: Item (1) is well-thought-out, I believe, but I would ignore Item (2) today, the points. In fact, with these six cards, I would challenge any player to try and NOT score enough to reach that Finish Line! The odds that Pone needs to peg 'just a few' today are enormously higher than the odds that we shall 'come up shy' of Hole 121, regardless of the discard, and so I think the emphasis should be entirely on the pegging. I like what fentesk has said (below) in this capacity. JQT says: I'm 'Obsessive-Compulsive' but not necessarily in that order. 8 - ) With regards to the puzzle: Item (1) is well-thought-out, I believe, but I would ignore Item (2) today, the points. In fact, with these six cards, I would challenge any player to try and NOT score enough to reach that Finish Line! The odds that Pone needs to peg 'just a few' today are enormously higher than the odds that we shall 'come up shy' of Hole 121, regardless of the discard, and so I think the emphasis should be entirely on the pegging. I like what fentesk has said (below) in this capacity. oc says: Thanks for the comments! I thought about it some more and I totally agree. Since we only need 7 here, throwing (5 7) or (5 8) seems like enough to win since our crib is almost always going to be worth 4 or more. Working out whether 8 or 7 is better defensively looks like a very hard puzzle to solve. Against (2 3 x x) and (A 4 x x), it seems better to have 8 than 7 since we get lines like 3-9-x-8 for 30 or 4-9-x-8 for 31. So I'm tossing (5 7) for now :) oc says: Thanks for the comments! I thought about it some more and I totally agree. Since we only need 7 here, throwing (5 7) or (5 8) seems like enough to win since our crib is almost always going to be worth 4 or more. Working out whether 8 or 7 is better defensively looks like a very hard puzzle to solve. Against (2 3 x x) and (A 4 x x), it seems better to have 8 than 7 since we get lines like 3-9-x-8 for 30 or 4-9-x-8 for 31. So I'm tossing (5 7) for now :) |
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MiketheExpert 1122 votes Joined: April 2021 |
Friday 6:35 AM
Let's keep the flush, not just because I like flushes and the diamonds are pretty, but also because I like it for preventing pone pegs. If I was really playing to keep the BEST hand in this situation however ----- I actually think I probably should throw the (7 8) while keeping the (5 6 9 J)...I just couldn't destroy that pretty flush on CHOD :) MiketheExpert says: I think next to (5 6 9 J), the flush and the keep of (6 7 8 J) might be a rival for the 2nd best, for curiosity's sake... JQT says: I believe that the usual logical solution to Safe Pegging by holding two of the lower-ranking cards along with two of the higher-ranking such as Keep (5 6 9 J) fails us here, because it entails holding onto both a 5 Card and a 6 Card. Either of these two cards, if held until last, can become 'trapped' into a 4-5-6 Run such that Pone could score Six Points in one-fell-swoop on the final volley of pegging! This is why I think it's essential to rid ourselves of at least one of these sometimes-very-explosive cards with our discard. The primary reason we may wish to Keep (5 6 7 ?) might be in order to attempt to peg out, as we could say entice a 4 Card Lead with a 6 Card response! Then, after 4-5-6, we would peg Four Holes for a Run after giving up Five Holes, and we would be at (118-114) with half of the Pegging Battle left to go. This might actually become a viable strategy if we had one 'small' card to hold alongside 5-6-7, or after a Jack Cut has occurred. But as given at (114*-109), I think it's a bit too optimistic to try to peg out, and so holding both the 5 Card and 6 Card seems untenable in this Relative Position. MiketheExpert says: Hi JQT...I was thinking in most cases, the 5 or 6 would be the first response I'd make...against an A or deuce lead, I would respond with a 5, but against a common 4 lead, I would respond with the 9 next and most likely be prepared to throw the 5 on the next play. I agree you wouldn't want to be trapped at the end holding 5-6 together, but I think in most cases I would cover this by the way I choose to play the hand...and then of course I would probably respond the 6 on any face card lead...however according to HAL's stats, it seems most of the top keeps involve throwing the 5 away, which could make sense upon further thought.. |
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mfetchCT425 1399 votes Joined: February 2009 |
Friday 6:40 AM
Like the flush for defensive pegging- 5-6 magic 11 and an out card in the J. Eolus619 says: morning Mike…your reply to a four lead would be? thx joekayak says: reply with a 7
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Fender Bass 373 votes Joined: July 2021 |
Friday 6:41 AM
Fender Bass says: This seemed obvious but after looking at some of the responses 678J seems like a better defensive hand and gets the needed points. |
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SallyAnn3 908 votes Joined: March 2020 |
Friday 6:59 AM
What Fetch said :) joekayak says: I would reply 7.
scottcrib says: Hey Sally! I have been missing your eCrib postings on Facebook lately. |
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Eolus619 1342 votes Joined: June 2020 |
Friday 7:29 AM
Let’s start with some n/d hand analysis ( 1000 hands) from Colvert , page 111, 3rd edition. The most frequent n/d hand score is 8, followed by 6, 12, & 4. This certainly tells me I have a decent chance to win & board position says defense for the dealer when it comes to pegging…..avoid aiding the n/d getting two..or more! The question is what to do with the five? Ras counsels have a pegging plan. I have kept the flush with an “11” and an out card “J”. The question is what to reply to an Ace, deuce, trey , four , six, seven , eight & nine. While some card luck (especially as to being paired ) is involved , it is primarily a pass or fail test for the dealer’s pegging ability. I have penciled out my plan on paper which is too long for posting here..and I will never know the result since this is a discard only website. There is good news for me though. When it comes to pegging , the rules limit me to having only four cards with which to self destruct.
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fentesk 1203 votes Joined: January 2021 |
Friday 8:01 AM
Letting the shock of being in the lead for a CHoD puzzle wear off, I'm accepting that I'll get my 7 points and am largely ignoring my hand score to play pegging defense.
I'm getting rid of the 5 for sure, there are too many ways it can be scored on. The Jack is another target for giving up points, but I both prefer a high card to run up the count, and not have a four-card-run that can be exploited. To space my hand, I want to drop the 7 or 8. I went with the 8 because I felt better about a 6-7 and 9-J than the 6 with 8-9-J bunched up, but see 5-7 and 5-8 as fairly equal. |
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joekayak 1873 votes Joined: May 2016 |
Friday 9:16 AM
I'm with Fetch and Sally. 4 lead-reply 7. |
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Cyrano 286 votes Joined: February 2020 |
Friday 10:35 AM
I can't do anything about what is in the pone's hand, so what poses the most threat to me is getting into some sort of run battle of a type that benefits the pone. So I'm going to do my best to avoid that while retaining enough points to go out this hand.
The first obvious possibility is throw (5 J) keep (6789) for the 3 15s and a 4-card run. More than enough points, but very dangerous with an inescapable run. I don't like it. The second obvious possibility is throw (8 9) keep (567J) for the flush, 3-card run, and 15. Again, more than enough points, and now there's an escape card. But that adversarial run possibility is still sitting there, and I rather dislike holding a 5 in my pegging hand because it gets me into trouble more than it tends to help me. A little further outside the usual we see throw (5 9) keep (678J) for the 3-card run and a 15. With the guaranteed dealer point and the guaranteed two in the crib for a 5 being there, that gives us enough to go out, but we still hold and have to play that dangerous run possibility. Finally after staring far too long I see throw (7 8) keep (569J) for the 3 15s, which with the dealer's guaranteed point gives me the 7 I need to go out. There's pretty close to zero run possibility held there, and while the 5 is a bit dangerous in my own hand, it's not *that* bad. I kind of like that I'm holding both an 11 and a 16 combo as I might be able to sneak some points in against fairly common pone keeps of 5XXX or XXXX (pegging out during play and preventing the pone from counting their hand is within the realm of possibility in such a case, particularly if we cut a J). I think I found my throw/keep. Eolus619 says: i think a new commenter ?…haven’t seen the handle before
welcome ..imo…always good to have more view points |
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wasa 3018 votes Joined: November 2014 |
Friday 12:09 PM
Pays to flush. J is my escape card. A flush is harder for the opponent to read also. |
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dgergens 938 votes Joined: January 2018 |
Friday 12:29 PM
Can't let pone peg no way no how if we are to have any chance at getting to count our cards. dgergens says: Whether it was the 7 or the 8 that should have been held is the next level of mathematics that I'm sure will show an insignificant difference. |
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Coeurdelion 5595 votes Joined: October 2007 |
Friday 12:59 PM
I think we must keep a hand to minimise Pone's pegging and therefore chances of Holding Enough to go out. It would also be nice to hold enough points to guarantee going out ourselves. Two hands which fit the bill are 5-6-7-J (8-9) and 5-7-8-J (6-9). The former scores 9pts and will be hard to read and should peg quite well Defensively. The latter scores 4+2pts and of course we're guaranteed to peg at least 1pt. This hand I think will peg better Defensively so I'll throw the 6-9.
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mrob2199 1435 votes Joined: February 2009 |
Friday 1:00 PM
I like this hand for the multiple pegging options that Mike noted-if we cut a Jack we could peg out on pone double run of pictures-we have the option to peg on if pone has a middle card hand-and we have the J as an escape card if we want to avoid all pegging contact |
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HalscribCLX 5318 votes Joined: February 2008 |
Friday 1:07 PM
I think we must keep a hand to minimise Pone's pegging and therefore chances of Holding Enough to go out. It would also be nice to hold enough points to guarantee going out ourselves. Two hands which fit the bill are 5-6-7-J (8-9) and 5-7-8-J (6-9). The former scores 9pts and will be hard to read and should peg quite well Defensively. The latter scores 4+2pts and of course we're guaranteed to peg at least 1pt. This hand I think will peg better Defensively so I'll throw the 6-9.
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HalscribCLX 5318 votes Joined: February 2008 |
Friday 1:08 PM
At 114*-109 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the Win %s are:
Optimal___________Win % 7-8-9-J___________69.1 6-8-9-J___________67.4 5-7-8-9___________66.7 6-7-8-9___________66.6 5-6-7-9___________66.6 6-7-8-J___________66.6 5-6-7-8___________66.2 5-8-9-J___________65.8 5-7-9-J___________65.1 6-7-9-J___________64.8 5-7-8-J___________64.7 5-6-7-J___________64.5 5-6-9-J___________63.5 5-6-8-9___________63.4 5-6-8-J___________63.0 7-8-9-J is appreciably best for Win %s so I'll select 5-6 to discard. After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead. fentesk says: I wonder if there are any differences if Halscrib chooses Defense for pegging instead of Optimal. As noted above, the chances of not getting 7 points is low (and impossible in the case of this choice). Maybe put another way, if we just want to see which hand avoids pegs the best according to Halscrib, would the values be different, or will the percentages shown be the same regardless of initial strategy? JQT says: My guess is that these numbers would be the same for DEFENSE: only if forced to peg offensively do I think the program would then maybe conflate the odds of pegging out (or rather attempting to) with the odds of simply preventing Pone from pegging out. |
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dec 6358 votes Joined: April 2008 |
Friday 4:29 PM
I see a picture lead and an off play response. dec |
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