October 9, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by James500
73*-85  ?
40%
29%
16%
8%
4%
1%
Total votes: 198
JQT
3244 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Saturday 3:05 AM
Today we are Dealer at Hole 73, and so we are "on target" after two sets of obtaining our "Three Counts" to go out and do so over the course of four deals.

But our Opponent also stands well at Hole 85, looking to become the First Dealer at or beyond the Fourth Street Par Hole 96 by completion of this deal.

We have a few choices, the obvious being the FLUSH with the suited but "also ran" Toss (6 9) discard. We could also Toss (2 8) or Toss (2 J), or we could even Toss (2 6) or attempt the more desperate Toss (6 8), frankly none of which looks too attractive.

What we probably need most to stay in contention for this game is "balance," and we dealt ourselves a nice FLUSH, with the ability to at least stow some points into our Crib.

I'll take the hint, retain the FLUSH, and Toss (6 9). The 7 Card Cut doesn't excite our Hand very much, but it could 'ignite' our Crib!
mrob2199
793 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 3:19 AM
Looks like the flush is the best option here-keeping a 4 point hand and throwing a guaranteed 2 points in our crib-a 5 or 9 cut would be nice for our hold but definitely the 9 is our preference as pone is rapidly approaching 4th street
james500
3018 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 3:27 AM
Not really sure what the best option is with these six. Will check back later to see which way "the wind is blowing".

I keep the 0.25 of a point wherever I put it, but Pone is unlikely to willingly discard a Jack, so I'll put mine in the crib where I hope it finds a friend.
dec
5414 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:50 AM
A little early to say but with the opponent sitting where they are it matters more what they end up here. Saying that keep there pegging movement at a minimum and hopefully they kept an average amount of points and discarded at least a six or a nine to upgrade our crib. Defense somewhat a priority here. dec
glmccuskey
3472 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Saturday 4:03 AM
Be careful in the pegging with opponent at 85.
MiketheExpert
208 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Saturday 4:33 AM
We're on par for the course, and I don't want to give my opponent any more help with him right at hole 85. So I'm going for BALANCE within the hand and the crib by keeping the 4-pt flush and throwing at least some help in the crib (6 9).

Not because I'll always keep the flush in these situations, and not because I'm terribly excited by the throw of (6 9) into my crib, but largely because there is no other play that seems more appealing and I will best prevent pone from moving forward with this keep I believe.

The (2 J) is worth some consideration perhaps, as I do like to throw a J when possible, and this keeps 5 pts with a run in my hand...but defense is taking priority for me here.
Jazzselke
1910 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Saturday 5:24 AM
Not the greatest flush ("non-working"), but the only way to hold a combined 6. Cards fairly well spaced for flexible pegging.
Eolus619
504 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Saturday 5:25 AM
73*-85…89-95*…99*-111…flush seems best today &
follow dec’s advice on pegging ..
looking for averages to prevail for us & not for him/her

Gougie00
4806 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 6:14 AM
What card are you hoping to cut with the flush? I will take my chances on the run and hope for a 8,9 or 10.

I need point without giving up any. The strategy will be to pair the opponent and hope I don't get tripled.
fentesk
310 votes

Joined: January 2021

   
Saturday 7:03 AM
While I certainly prefer discarding because I most like an option, today feels like I'm discarding based on this being the option I dislike least. Splitting points between the hand and crib with the chance for growth.

I considered what I'd do if there was no flush option. I decided I'd toss J-2 and keep the 6-8-9-10, but wouldn't feel great about that either.

Given pone's score, I also need to play defensively for the pegging, making this whole hand feel like I'm trying not to lose instead of trying to win, but sometimes that's how you win.
Fender Bass
114 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Saturday 8:16 AM
I try to do there puzzles quickly, like in a game, and then see what the analysis is. This jumped out at me and I didn't even notice the flush. Kinda worked out, I guess.
scottcrib
721 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Saturday 8:47 AM
Maybe the negative delta 6-3 got tossed to my crib. That would be nice!
wasa
2129 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Saturday 9:21 AM
When in doubt I flush
Coeurdelion
4712 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 2:29 PM
I think it's between the flush 2-8-10-J (6-9), 6-9-10-J (2-8) and 6-8-9-10 (2-J):

2-8-10-J: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 9¼pts

6-9-10-J: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.66) = 8½pts

6-8-9-10: 5pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.84) = 8¾pts

Potential:

2-8-10-J: Improves with 222, 3333, 5555, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 7/8pts with 3333, 5555, 999, QQQQ = 15 cuts. Plus 9 diamond cuts for 1pt for his nob and 1pt for the flush = 2x9/46 = 0.39pt.

6-9-10-J: Improves with 5555, 666, 888, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 9/10/12pts with 666, 999, 101010, JJJ = 12 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

6-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJ = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 9/10pts with 666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 16 cuts.

Position:

We're 3pts past positional hole while Pone is 1pt short of where they would like to be. So I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think the flush should peg best.

Summary:

The flush is highest for starting value by ½pt over 5-8-9-10 and it also has the extra potential for a diamond cut. The flush has most cuts for improvement and although 6-8-9-10 has 16 cuts for 9/10pts and 6-9-10-J has 12 cuts for 9-12pts, the flush has 15 cuts for 7/8pts. So I think overall the flush will be best and I'll throw the suited 6-9.
HalscribCLX
4437 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 2:32 PM
At 73*-85 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs___Crib__Total___W3 %____W4 %
2-8-10-J___6.48+(-2.48)+5.07=9.07____12.3____25.1
6-8-9-10___7.13+(-2.04)+3.74=8.83____11.1____23.4
6-9-10-J___7.07+(-2.04)+3.68=8.71____10.9____23.9
8-9-10-J___6.59+(-2.26)+3.87=8.20____11.1____24.1

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
2-8-10-J______47.1____67.1
6-8-9-10______47.6____69.3
6-9-10-J______46.2____68.6
8-9-10-J______46.1____68.2

2-8-10-J is best for expected averages by 0.24pt and is appreciably best for Win %s and is one of the lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 6-9 to discard.

After the 7C cut I'll play Defense to the lead.