October 10, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by MiketheExpert
43-49*  ?
39%
29%
7%
6%
6%
4%
3%
2%
Total votes: 194
JQT
3244 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 3:00 AM
We are Pone, and sadly, we should like to navigate nearly a Full Street by the completion of this deal in order to reach where we would like to be as the Next Dealer, which is somewhere near the Third Street Par Hole 70.

Meanwhile, our illustrious Opponent enjoys a commanding position as the Current Dealer at Hole 49, a secure Five Holes ahead of the Second Street Par Hole 44.

We have some awful choices to consider today: Our highest Hand allows us to retain Six Points, and yet we have to Toss (6 6) in order to hold this arrangement, and decisions like this are probably why we're doing so poorly at this juncture in the game!

Attempting to "chase our losses" is a poor strategy in Gambling, as it is in Life in General, and I doubt Cribbage shall be any sort of exception from this rule.

It's just a shame that our Deuce is not also a Club Suit, as we might then do well after unloading the two Heart Suits with Toss (6 Q); and yet, this still might be a viable discard strategy today.

Otherwise, we're really scraping the bottom of the barrel, and having to look at Toss (2 Q) as possibly our remaining choice. This does allow us to retain Four Points, and the only remaining tedious 'mop up' chore is to finally consider, well what about Toss (Q Q)?

Throwing a high-ranking PAIR such as T-T, Q-Q, or specifically K-K is not an untenable idea, especially when compared with the abomination of Toss (6 6), and even more notably given the dire Relative Position we inherited today.

Given that we might only have about a 10% shot at actually winning this game, and that we also stand a fair chance of getting SKUNKED, some risk is probably warranted. I won't risk Toss (6 6), but I might just risk Toss (Q Q).

After Toss (Q Q), only about Nine Cuts (333, 66, 9999) really give us a significant boost today, and about Six Cuts (5555, QQ) might ruin us, or rather ruin us even further.

After the Deuce Cut, we might breathe a sigh of relief that we didn't actually Toss (2 Q), but the Deuce Cut does add Two Points to our Hand, and a 50% "push" certainly shouldn't hurt us. Let's lead a 6 Card from our PAIR.
james500
3018 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 3:15 AM
I want Dealer to score twenty or fewer over the next two hands, so that the advantage swings back in my favour.
3 lead from 3-2-6 combo.
Gougie00
4806 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 5:01 AM
I thought it was my crib. Oops.
dec
5415 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 5:23 AM
I knew it wasn't my crib. Aggressive. Although the averages will probably factor in the pegging which could be 2.0 or more in their favor. Three lead. dec
Eolus619
505 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Sunday 5:56 AM
Today…this is the best part of the poor bargain we are presented. I graciously yield to JQT’s explanation as to why.
scottcrib
722 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Sunday 6:34 AM
Defense from me today. Every cut helps except an 8, so I should get something back by tossing Q-6. Not likely much of a crib with a 2 cut.
Rosemarie44
1979 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 7:20 AM
I've been off the site recently so maybe I will be off with my decision to toss the pair of sixes. Ras stated the other day, that this toss across the board is "dangerous".
This hand has 14 cuts keeping it at 6 points and 32 cuts that increase the value to 8, 9, 10, of 12 points.
comparing the value between 6-6 and QQ is 7.08 vs. 5.79, (Schell) respectively; only about 1-1/4 points difference. I guess I am choosing dangerous today.
Fender Bass
114 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Sunday 7:30 AM
Okay, I'll take the bait. At least we didn't have a flush option today.
SallyAnn3
485 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Sunday 8:01 AM
What Scott and James said. And just yuck!
fentesk
310 votes

Joined: January 2021

   
Sunday 8:11 AM
The 43-49* score is even worse than it initially looked to me. If we were dealing from this score we'd need to hit our averages to go out, but we're not dealing; we're really behind. Add 52 to each score, and then another hand of 10/16 and we see, as Eolus notes, we'd be at 105*-117. I either need to make up 16 points over the next 6 hands, or hold the current dealer back by 7 points. I'll choose defense.

I prefer either Q-6 or Q-2 to Q-Q here since I'm choosing defense, but Q-Q doesn't scare me all that much (given I have an affinity for hands that increase with every cut, I wonder if I should forgive the 8 cut here and hold 2-3-6-6). Q-2 is probably not quite as defensive as Q-6, but it also keeps 4 in hand instead of 2, and I know where a 3 is, so that's my choice.
JCM
768 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Sunday 8:57 AM
I have faced this hand(and at a similar board position) many times. I have always agonized over what to do. Thanks for posting this. Helpful!
horus93
764 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Sunday 9:12 AM
This position demands defense. If I was further down myself I would even toss 6-Q.
Ras2829
4256 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 12:45 PM
Choosing a defense strategy to include the pegging, tossing Q-Q or 6-6 are virtually identical in combined values to discarding the Q-Q. The difference in the two discards is best demonstrated by comparing the number of 12 point or more cribs. The Q-Q scores 12 or more 4.182% while 6-6 scores nearly three times as many at 12.009. The 6-6 also scores 10% more cribs in the 8-11 range. On the lower end of the scale Q-Q scores a mere two points 35.680% and 6-6 does that half as often with 18.368%. Those are huge differences on both ends of the scoring range (two points and 12 or more point categories) causes me to avoid the 6-6. Of course, the most defensive discard in terms of balking opponent crib is the 6-Q. Am not willing to play a mere two points at hole 43. Non-dealer position is OK if limiting dealer on pegs and crib score. Will lead the trey, if dealer has X-point cards or 5-X-X-X, will score safe pegs with a 15-2 and 31-2. Works that way very often with the 2-3-6 combination regardless of what the fourth card is.
MiketheExpert
208 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Sunday 1:21 PM
I am in mid-game, and I'm in a worse situation than it appears as first glance being pone at this position...however, I don't think it is quite yet time to hit the panic button...

Here is the question: We are at a significant disadvantage, so what is the "best" way we can hope to get back in this game? Would it be easier for us to get in range of hole 70 in 1 hand, or hope to keep dealer back from 70 2 deals from now, when he is the dealer once again...? He is about 5 holes up in dealer's position, but I still think chances are much better to play defense and to try and hold him back, rather than aggressively push the envelope to get a "huge" hand, lucky cut, and peg aggressively without substantial risk. Thus, either the (6 6) or (Q Q) toss is just too risky for me in this position. This limited my choice to either (2 Q) or (6 Q).

I feel it is often best to just try and extend the game as much as possible, still time being only mid-way in 2nd street. If we score our average over the course of the next THREE hands, this would put us dealing in the range from hole 79-80, and if he scores his average, this would put him all the way around hole 91...If it continues this way, it is clearly untenable, so I would rather us BOTH perform under average over the course of this time, rather than both of us to perform well...

I ended up choosing the (2 Q), but in some ways I wish I had even gone more defensive and held only the 2 pts, tossing the "best" defensive toss of (6 Q) here...Instead, I chose to keep 4 starting pts, hope for something good to happen in the cut (not the case with the 2 cut here on CHOD), planning to lead the 6 and play as defensively as possible. I would not even risk tripling a paired 6 here, instead play your 3 to fifteen it for 2 points.

If I am lucky by playing defense for at least the next 3 rounds,, I can keep dealer at least 4-5 pegs back from his expected average, and even if I underperform myself in this same timeframe, I can expect to find myself in a similar situation as yesterday's CHOD hand when I was dealing from 73*-85, or perhaps even better than that.
Coeurdelion
4712 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 1:51 PM
I think it's between 2-3-Q-Q (6-6) and 3-6-6-Q (2-Q):

2-3-Q-Q: 6pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.08) = -¾pt

3-6-6-Q: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.56) = -½pt

Potential:

2-3-Q-Q: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, QQ = 20 cuts.

3-6-6-Q: Improves with 222, 333, 5555, 66, 9999, QQ = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 8/12pts with 333, 66, 9999 = 9 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt short of second street positional hole and Opponent is already 5pts past it so I'll play Offense to try to improve my position.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think both hands will peg quite well.

Summary:

3-6-6-Q is only ¼pt better for starting value but 2-3-Q-Q has many more cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 9-12pts compared to 9 cuts for 8/12pts with 3-6-6-Q. So I'll throw the 6s.
HalscribCLX
4437 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 1:54 PM
At 43-49* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W5 %___W6 %
2-3-Q-Q____8.43+1.30+(-6.81)=2.92____5.0____10.8
2-3-6-6____7.09+1.50+(-5.97)=2.62____4.5____10.7
3-6-6-Q____5.35+0.89+(-4.27)=1.97____2.7____10.3
2-3-6-Q*___4.61+1.41+(-4.12)=1.90____2.8____10.3

Offense______L5 %___L6 %
2-3-Q-Q_______33.2___64.5
2-3-6-6_______31.5___63.4
3-6-6-Q_______25.6___58.9
2-3-6-Q*______26.2___59.5

* unsuited 6-Q

2-3-Q-Q is best for expected averages by 0.30pt and is slightly best for Win %s. Although it is significantly worst for Loss %s as it's still quite early in the game and we're playing Offense I'll select 6-6 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead a Q and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
Q___________________1.35
3___________________1.17
2___________________0.96
JCM
768 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Sunday 6:48 PM
Now I have to decide whether to follow Ras' advice(toss QQ) or Halscrib's(toss 66 early in game). I guess it still remains a dilemma for me :-)