Monday 3:00 AM

As Dealer *almost* at the Third Street Par Hole 70, we want to proceed on all eight cylinders, unless we deal ourselves some sort of four-cylinder clunker.

And that's because Pone has already reached this desired 'target' or Positional Hole. In fact, the real struggle is now over the Fourth Street Par Hole 96. And it's not just who can get to it more quickly, but who can DEAL from this target and do so FIRST.

We dealt ourselves a not-too-awful arrangement of cards, and we could retain either the 6-9-9 trio or the 5-Q-Q trio. Frankly, I generally prefer the former, because it allows us to 'stash' a precious 5 Card into our Crib, and so ordinarily, we wouldn't have to quibble over the perceived and real differences between Toss (6 9) and Toss (9 9)!

Oh, what the heck: let's 'quibble around' and examine these details anyway! Toss (5 Q) has a Crib Value (all numbers, Schell) of about 6.63 points; Toss (9 9) has a Crib Value of about 5.16 points; Toss (6 9) has a Crib Value of about 5.13 points; and Toss (Q Q) has a Crib Value of about 4.79 points. Your charts may vary!

But Wait! Weren't we just debating the 'innocence' of Toss (Q Q) 'over the board' last week? And if so, wouldn't Toss (Q Q) therefore qualify as "adding insult to injury"? Having a 5 Card sit alongside a Queen in our Crib begins innocently enough, with no added 'static' value, and yet it results in an *improved* Crib Value by boosting our average by nearly an additional Two Points. Case (almost) Closed.

Toss (5 Q) is the axiomatic, go-to discard in such instances; and while we are not close enough to an Endgame Pegging Battle that warrants looking over any further considerations with regards to Defensive Pegging today, we've still perhaps got some serious issues with the Positional Problem staring us right in the Front Peg. Do we need to consider those "alternative" discards today? Yes and No.

In fact, while Toss (5 Q) may be almost an 'automatic' discard from such an arrangement earlier in a game, the Relative Position probably does force us to examine and consider both Toss (Q Q) and Toss (9 9). This is due to the ongoing, enduring, unrelenting, and difficult nature of our current Positional Struggle. (Too many adjectives; don't I know!?)

Having the 5 Card sit alongside our 6 Card after Toss (Q Q) or Toss (9 9) adds some Pegging Value to our Hand, while simultaneously inflicting some damage (as we concluded above) to our Crib. And, while it may indeed allow us to peg an "easy" Two Holes via a (15=2) after Pone leads any of the extant Fourteen Ten (or "X") Cards, a good percentage of the time, Pone will immediately 'recoup' those Two Points by PAIRING our 5 Card!

But additionally, it really upsets the "balance" and the "synergy" if we don't Toss (5 Q) from this arrangement; and I don't think the increased Pegging, even if we can secure it, will make up *enough* of the difference. So there: let's Toss (5 Q).

After the Jack Cut, we're now already magically 'at par,' so we'll take pegs as if we own this game: because let's face it, if Pone falters even a little bit, it ain't gonna be too far from bein' the truth. Or, maybe we're lying to ourselves.

Anyway, if EITHER PLAYER has some good luck, and the OTHER PLAYER stumbles: One of the Players might be fighting right here and right now just to avoid getting SKUNKED! We know it's bad, and we know it could get better, or worse: we just don't yet know HOW bad, and exactly WHEN, and for precisely WHOM the 'badness' tolls!

   

Monday 3:14 AM

I do not like pairs to our crib so 5-Q would be my choice with today's hand. Tossing Q-Q would be my second choice, then 9-9. See above.

   

Monday 3:32 AM

Interesting puzzle Dan.

Not too certain what would be best here, but when in doubt, X-5.

   

Monday 4:48 AM

Q - 5 throw means more points in the crib. And hand pegs better too.

   

Monday 4:53 AM

I’m in the Q5 camp. Only in cribbage and not in business can you have Q5 earnings.

   

Monday 5:06 AM

Sorry I forgot to look at the Min/Max columns for Peg Out %s:

At 118*-114 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the Peg Out %s and Win %s are:

Optimal________Peg Out %_______Win %
A-4-5-8__________75.2__________13.5
A-4-4-5__________78.1__________14.7
4-4-5-8__________68.6__________20.6
4-5-8-8__________69.0__________20.9
A-5-8-8__________67.1__________20.5
A-4-8-8__________56.9__________21.3
A-4-4-8__________60.9__________18.8
4-4-8-8__________58.0__________25.2

A-4-5-8 and A-4-4-5 are very similar overall but A-4-4-5 has the edge so I'll throw 8-8.

After the 7 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Apologies again. Suffering from a head cold - at least it's not Covid! 8-) - Coeurdelion

   

Monday 5:11 AM

I like the queens in the crib.

   

Monday 5:12 AM

I always considered 9-9 but I went with my initial choice ... which I've been told second thoughts forgone unless in an end game is what I should go for is my initial. After the cut defense to the lead. dec

   

Monday 5:22 AM

For the 4 options to hold a combined 8 points, I like the 5-Q in our crib.

   

Monday 6:15 AM

Need to either keep 6-9-9 or 5-Q-Q. What to toss to my crib? 6-6? 6-9? Q-Q? 5-Q? Pretty sure none of the other choices rival the 5-Q so keep the 6-9-9 and toss the 5-Q to my own crib.

   

Monday 6:27 AM

Keeping the 5-6 together and possible help from an A cut. Maybe a stray K in the crib.

   

Monday 6:51 AM

Another educational board position puzzle from Jazz!

JQT’s board position words from above displayed in #s…..94*-98…110-108*

It appears to me there are three close discard choices ..5-Q…9-9…Q-Q. Others have explained why sending a five to my crib works ..5-Q for me today. Also, thinking in reverse, how many times have I sent, as Pone, a Q or K across the board to balk.So a further reason to send one today. BTW…If I went 6-9, I might very well be missing taking advantage of JQT’s synergy & Gougio00’s pin action when it comes to Pone tossed Faces to the crib.

   

Monday 7:20 AM

Board position is starting to become critical for both players, which is what makes 3 of these choices "closer" than they would otherwise appear....

I like the pegging arrangement LEAST with my final choice, but I just think the benefit of having the (5 Q) in my crib slighly outweighs the "lost" value of throwing away the (5 6) magic "11" arrangement for my pegging hand..

J cut puts me just into hole 70, and believe I should continue to put the pressure on by taking pegs when available, so I am optimal+, leaning towards aggressive. Would respond with the 9 on any leads from (A through 4), fifteen a 5, 6 or 9 lead, respond with the 9 on a 7 lead, the 6 on an 8, and probably the 6 on all face card leads. My order of preference on the discards:

1. (5 Q)
2. (9 9)
3. (Q Q)
4. (6 9) a distant 4th

   

Monday 7:23 AM

I'm starting to think like JQT! ... well, at least I'm thinking like him for one morning. :)

   

Monday 8:12 AM

Seems like Q's in the crib has more potential and the 5/6 might get 4 pegging points.

   

Monday 8:13 AM

I posted this thinking it was particularly close between 99 and 5Q. I like the pegging advantage of 56QQ with the powerful 56 combination. However. I ultimately prefer to keep 699Q with the 5Q in the crib rather than the 99.

   

Monday 10:21 AM

The choice of strategy points in one direction this day. If choosing offense strategy to include the pegging, it's Q-Q, 9-9, and 5-Q in that order. Surprisingly the 5-Q discard with 6-9-9-Q retained is a distant third because of the small potential hand value. And you know that RAS loves the 5-X discard to crib. The 5-6-9-9 has the best pegging prospects and a much greater potential hand value than does pitching 5-Q or 9-9. So the two ladies are in the box. Will play on the lead and take pegs as offered. If opponent has discaerded that common King to my crib, will find a minimum of 8 points there although wise to just figure the average of 4.93.

   

Monday 4:03 PM

Several hands that start with 6+2pts - 6-6-9-Q (5-Q), 5-6-9-9 (Q-Q), 5-6-Q-Q (9-9) and 5-9-Q-Q (6-9):

6-6-9-Q: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 12½pts

5-6-9-9: 6pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.79) = 10¾pts

5-6-Q-Q: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 11¼pts

5-9-Q-Q: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 11¼pts

Potential:

6-6-9-Q: Improves with 3333, 555, 66, 99, QQ = 13 cuts = 13/46 = 28.3% up to 12pts with 66, 99 = 4 cuts.

5-6-9-9: Improves with AAAA, 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 99 + 14xXs = 33 cuts = 33/46 = 71.7% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 4444, 66, 7777, 99 = 16 cuts.

5-6-Q-Q: Improves with 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 99 + 14xXs = 29 cuts = 29/46 = 63.0% up to 9/11/12pts with 4444, 555, 7777, QQ = 13 cuts.

5-9-Q-Q: Improves with AAAA, 555, 66, 99 + 14xXs = 25 cuts = 25/46 = 54.3% up to 12pts with 555, QQ = 5 cuts.

Position:

We're 2pts short of 3rd street positional hole while Pone is already 2pts past it. We need to be at 86pts or more for next deal so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think these hands will peg similarly but with a magic eleven perhaps 5-6-9-9 and 5-6-Q-Q will peg better than the other two.

Summary:

6-6-9-Q has the best starting value by 1¼pts but has the fewest cuts for improvement and only 4 cuts for 12pts. 5-6-9-9 starts 2¼pts behind but has the most cuts for improvement and 16 cuts for 9-12pts. Also it should peg one of the best of these hands. So I think it will catch up the 2¼pts therefore I'll throw the Q-Q.

   

Monday 4:26 PM

At 68*-72 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

____________________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
5-6-9-9____8.43+3.17+4.45=16.05____38.8____22.7
5-6-Q-Q____8.09+2.96+4.93=15.98____39.1____23.0
6-9-9-Q____6.87+2.41+6.40=15.68____38.9____24.2
5-9-Q-Q____7.57+2.63+4.89=15.09____36.2____21.0

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
5-6-9-9________59.6____59.8
5-6-Q-Q________59.3____59.4
6-9-9-Q________57.3____58.5
5-9-Q-Q________59.0____61.8

5-6-9-9 is best for expected averages by 0.07pt but 5-6-Q-Q is slightly better for Win %s and lower for Loss %s. 6-9-9-Q is the lowest for Loss %s but I'll select 9-9 to discard as we're at a critical board position and I think Win/Loss %s are more important than the slender difference in expected averages.

After the J cut I'll play Defense to the lead.