Tuesday 3:09 AM

With Q-K, Q-T or T-K I might've tried A347, but not with T-J.
4 lead.

   

Tuesday 4:58 AM

Interesting position, pone is a little short but we also need points as well. Like the adjoining face cards with the A4 (which I prefer to not send to the opponent by holding the 4-point flush).

   

Tuesday 5:11 AM

I did not like the configuration of the flush with today's hand. Expected averages favor tossing 3-7 and retaining A4TJ.

   

Tuesday 5:17 AM

I would need fifteens or a run to do flush choice today. A two point keep here seems to be on the light side. Defensive elevens and maybe an eleven point hand possibility. My " favorite " (so called safe ) lead. dec

   

Tuesday 5:29 AM

Echo

   

Tuesday 6:00 AM

Need the points, so keep the most points with the max cut options.

   

Tuesday 6:16 AM

All is not lost here …62-66*….88*-92…112-118*..we are on the “right” side of the cycle to count first when it means the most. This is gougie00 hand…it is hard to play offense & defense at the same time…but today we face this challenge. Keeping four and risk tossing connectors that have less value than A-4 across the board . Best cut help A, 4,5 and F/Ts.

   

Tuesday 6:55 AM

My algorithm has only a .1 point differential between tossing 3-7 to the crib or keeping the flush.

Wow, the five show-card helps those who flushed.

   

Tuesday 6:59 AM

I was tempted by the flush and would have went that way if the 10J weren't touchies. A mediocre hand with limited peggers. Hold and roll and the double run hand is being dealt next time. Lead the 4? Wondering if leading the Jack is better.

   

Tuesday 7:10 AM

Not tempted at all by the flush here because of the discard. (A 4) isn't necessarily super dangerous, but there doesn't seem to be any reason to go this route when I can keep 4 pts which have just as good or better chances from improvement (A 4 T J) and a bit safer toss in (3 7). Keeping only 2 pts (A 4 3 7) is not that good with the (T J) discard, which I think in some way is even more dangerous than (A 4).

After the cut, I have 8 pts by myself in the hand, while dealer is behind position. Thus I will only take safe pegs knowing he has a (3 5 7) combo in the crib which can easily improve. Let's start with the defensive 4 lead, and proceed with caution. Pair a T or J response rather than scoring 15, and let's ditch the A at the first safe opportunity to do so.

   

Tuesday 7:22 AM

Echo chamber. It pays to flush... except when it doesn't.

   

Tuesday 7:40 AM

   

Tuesday 8:39 AM

Add 52 (26*2 for the next four hands) and we're looking at 114-118*. I'll lean slightly defensive, but don't want to go full defense today by hitting my hand. I also am not particularly interested in handing over A-4 and its guaranteed 2 points to keep a fairly lackluster flush (is anything ever "lackluster" without being "fairly lackluster"?).

A-4-10-J, nothing super exciting about it, but it gives us 4 points to start. I would lead the 4 since I'd like a 15-2 to get my 10 points this hand if the dealer also has a common hand (and I'd like something if they hit on 5-X-X-X or X-X-X-X with the cut) but otherwise wonder if the A may be the lead.

   

Tuesday 10:12 AM

This position and hand came up in a real game, and I wondered if anyone would dare say, "It Pays to FLUSH" and Toss (A 4).

It's good to see that, at least as of Noon ET, everyone who has posted thus far has decided that, "It Pays to FLUSH the Trey and the 7 Card!"

I debated whether to leave this clunker of a puzzle in the queue, and I even suspected that RAS (or another trusted Site Moderator) might 'do me a solid' and delete it, but alas, here it is.

Can we achieve 100% of these posted votes for Toss (3 7)? We'll see! What made me ultimately decide to "let it stand, and see the light of day" was the random 5 Card Cut, which has interesting ramifications with any of the various discards one might consider.

Even though I frequently tout the issue of considering what I often call "5 Card Cut Insurance," it's not so clear whether Toss (A 4), or Toss (T J), or even Toss (3 7), gives us (or takes from us) any leverage after a 5 Card Cut, and so I still think Toss (3 7) is the way to go here.

And yes, let's lead the 4 Card.

   

Tuesday 10:17 AM

The flush won't fly because of the A-4 discard. If a low scoring discard available (1-K, 9-K, 9-Q, 6-K, etc.), it would pay to flush. Otherwise it's been said, Lead the four and take safe pegs. Was thinking offense to include the pegging when viewing the pegs, when viewing these six cards, and will downshift to optimal strategy once knwoing that have 8 points.

   

Tuesday 2:46 PM

I think it's between the flush and A-4-10-J (3-7) but perhaps A-3-4-7 (10-J) is worth looking at as well as it will peg well:

3-7-10-J: 4pts - 6pts (Schell: 5.72) = -2pts

A-4-10-J: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.01) = -1pt

A-3-4-7: 2pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = -3¾pts

Potential:

3-7-10-J: Improves with 2222, 333, 5555, 777, 8888, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8pts with 2222, 5555, 9999, QQQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 9 spades for 1pt extra for his nob and 1pt extra for the flush = 2x9/46 = 0.39pt.

A-4-10-J: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 9999 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 24 cuts. Plus 9 spade cuts for 1pt for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-3-4-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 + 14xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 6/8pts with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 = 24 cuts.

Position:

Opponent is 4pts short of 3rd street positional hole. We only need 8pts to reach the same while Dealer needs 20pts to reach 86pts to put them in position to reach 4th street positional hole at 96pts. So I think I'll play cautious offense.

Pegging:

A think A-3-4-7 will peg best as it has 3 low cards and a middle card plus a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

A-4-10-J is best for starting value by 1pt over the flush. The flush has more cuts for improvement but A-4-10-J has 24 cuts for 8-10pts while the flush has only 16 cuts for 7/8pts. A-3-4-7 has several more cuts for improvement and 24 cuts for 6/8pts, which is a tremendous on 2pts. However it starts 2¾pts behind A-+4-10-J so even with the better pegging potential I do not think it will catch up this amount. So I'll throw the 3-7.

   

Tuesday 2:49 PM

At 62-66* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total____W4 %____W5 %
A-4-10-J___6.72+(-3.02)+(-4.93)=(-1.23)__14.7____34.4
A-3-4-J____4.98+(-2.63)+(-4.39)=(-2.04)__13.0____32.8
3-7-10-J___6.48+(-2.78)+(-5.77)=(-2.07)__15.1____34.0
A-3-4-10___4.78+(-2.65)+(-4.73)=(-2.60)__12.6____32.0
A-4-7-J____4.33+(-2.61)+(-4.64)=(-2.92)__10.1____28.5
A-4-7-10___4.13+(-2.74)+(-4.88)=(-3.49)___9.9____28.1
A-3-4-7____5.04+(-2.72)+(-5.84)=(-3.52)__13.5____30.9

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
A-4-10-J_______30.7____50.0
A-3-4-J________29.7____51.5
3-7-10-J_______32.8____51.5
A-3-4-10_______30.1____52.7
A-4-7-J________30.3____56.4
A-4-7-10_______30.7____57.0
A-3-4-7________35.1____54.7

A-4-10-J is best for expected averages by 0.81pt although the flush is pretty even for Win %s but A4-10-J is appreciably lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 3-7 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
4__________________(-2.19)
A__________________(-2.30)
J__________________(-2.34)
10_________________(-2.41)