November 21, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
83*-85  ?
45%
32%
21%
0%
0%
Total votes: 200
james500
3051 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 3:13 AM
7-2-2 eleven may be useful. Q-9 probably won't be.
mrob2199
815 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Sunday 3:15 AM
Nice puzzle today Ras-this is a horrible hand and even if we kept the 779 together and cut the 8,we aren’t going to go that far-so we have to keep the best defensive hand to keep the pone down,while still keeping a hand and discarding to our crib combinations of cards which can be marginally helped by more cuts than the monster 8 cut that 779 would strive for-the 229Q gets help from a 2,3,or 4 cut while providing a magic 11 and spaced out pegging cards-we aren’t looking for a home run here-a single or lucky double would suffice
MiketheExpert
242 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Sunday 4:37 AM
With this score, I am not so much concerned with the fact I don't have a great hand, OR that I may have to throw horrible cards into my own crib. I am really focused on trying to become that FIRST dealer at hole 96, and even I tried, it would be hard for me not to REACH hole 96, and well beyond that in the course of the next 2 deals! So the way I see it, I only have 1 chance to hold current pone back and play defensively (this hand), while I have 2 chances to score in the neighborhood of 13 pegs, and I think I can do this without hardly TRYING, because this second statement should practically take care of itself.

Therefore, I will choose the "HORRIBLE" (9 Q) throw into my own crib rather than the strong (7 7), because I like the prospects of DEFENSIVE PEGGING and the safety in numbers aspect of holding two widespread pairs in my hand THAT much better.

So (2 2 7 7) it is, and true to form, we get a cut that does nothing for us, probably no matter what we have chosen, but again, it DOESN't REALLY MATTER on this deal.

I feel there is a very good chance to hold pone down as best as I can, and the only aspect I can't control is how good of a hand he was dealt. I'm playing off all opening leads here. Do not be tempted to engage in any back and forth runs here! Scoring is practically all of benefit to our opponenet, rather than ourselves!
Gougie00
4837 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 5:09 AM
Nothing on the menu looks palatable. I tossed 22 because the pone rarely helps 77. I wasn't enthusiastic about Q9 either. I might learn something today.
Jazzselke
1933 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 6:02 AM
Total defense required in this position as mentioned. 229Q provides the Magic 11. 7s in the crib could still possibly be 12 with the 8 cut (what we be be looking for with the 779 hold in the hand). But the priority is keeping the opponent off of Hole 95/96.
zeke76
1080 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Sunday 6:36 AM
Ugh
Eolus619
535 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Sunday 7:03 AM
This hand reminds me of a Bruce Springsteen song . “Waiting on a sunny day” .The 80 % chance for dealer earning 12 is in doubt. Defensive pegging ..95-95*…105*-111.. shaky position and outcome
JQT
3278 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 7:34 AM
At this Relative Position, careful pegging is perhaps more important than our total scoring, since we're not on target, and more importantly, our Opponent looks capable of reaching that same target.

Defensive pegging should be achievable if we hold either Keep (2 2 9 Q) and Toss (7 7) or if we hold Two PAIRS via Keep (2 2 7 7) and Toss (9 Q), and several cuts will help either hand.

However, Toss (7 7) should do much better in our Crib than Toss (9 Q), because while our Hand only gets help from One Card (the Cut), the Crib gets help from not just the Cut Card, but also from the Two Cards discarded by Pone.

In fact, the Crib Value of Toss (7 7) to our Own Crib is about Six Points, or nearly DOUBLE that of Toss (9 Q)! This clinches it.

Let's Toss (7 7) and peg very carefully, and after the seemingly useless King Cut, let's especially try to prevent our Opponent from easily reaching the next target.
Fender Bass
149 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Sunday 7:53 AM
Hoping for an 8 or a 3
dec
5447 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 9:15 AM
Defense to me is needed here. I will find out soon enough if they got that nine to seventeen hand on the cut. Need twelve here do piece work on the three facets. dec
Inushtuk1
741 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Sunday 12:13 PM
I have learned from Crib solitaire Drills via Kassler's Hand Evaluator that keeping the high and low cards, and tossing the middle cards is often best for Dealer. I still have a Magic Eleven for defense.
Coeurdelion
4742 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 3:03 PM
I think it must be between 7-7-9-Q (2-2), 2-2-9-Q (7-7) and 2-2-7-7 (9-Q):

7-7-9-Q: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.72) = 7¾pts

2-2-9-Q: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 7¾pts

2-2-7-7: 4pts - 3pts (Schell: 2.99) = 7pts

Potential:

7-7-9-Q: Improves with AAAA, 5555, 6666, 77, 8888, 999, QQQ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/12pts with 77, 8888 = 6 cuts.

2-2-9-Q: Improves with AAAA, 22, 3333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 999, QQQ = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 6/8pts with 22, 3333, 4444 = 10 cuts.

2-2-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 22, 4444, 6666, 77, 8888 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 8/12pts with 22, 4444, 6666, 77, 8888 = 16 cuts.

Position:

We need 13pts to reach 4th street positional hole but we will be there as Pone but if we're there first we'll have positional advantage. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think 2-2-9-Q and 2-2-7-7 will peg best and perhaps, playing Defense, 2-2-7-7 the best. Both have magic elevens but with a 3-card magic including a pair of twos 2-2-7-7 has better potential.

Summary:

2-2-9-Q has the most cuts for improvement and 10 cuts for 6/8pts which is a considerable improvement over 2pts. So I'll throw 7-7.
HalscribCLX
4468 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 3:07 PM
At 83*-85 playing Defense the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W3 %____W4 %
2-2-9-Q____3.74+(-2.02)+5.91=7.63____45.5____48.7
7-7-9-Q____3.83+(-2.13)+5.61=7.31____43.0____46.6
2-2-7-7____5.91+(-2.11)+3.07=6.87____42.3____47.7

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
2-2-9-Q_______45.0____36.2
7-7-9-Q_______45.7____38.7
2-2-7-7_______44.9____37.7

2-2-9-Q is best for expected averages by 0.32pt. and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-7 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
wasa
2164 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Sunday 5:08 PM
Late to the game today. Pondered 9-Q vs 7-7 vs 2-2. Decided to feed my crib with middle key connectors
Ras2829
4283 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 9:46 PM
With opponent at hole 85 needing to reach 95-99 (4th street CPZ) for upcoming deal., it's defense to include the pegging. Best thing can be accomplished this hand is to limit n/d progress down the board. Play off the lead although pairing a deuce lead would seem to benefit me as if tripled dealer would move down the board 14 holes. The 7-7 is the best of the discards available and still allows a defensive pegging stance.