November 22, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
115*-111  ?
45%
11%
9%
8%
7%
6%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 218
Sally3
37 votes

Joined: October 2021

   
Monday 3:01 AM
hoping for connectors or a face card...
james500
3051 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 3:08 AM
Similar predicament to the other day. Do we try to peg out, or hope that Pone comes up short?

Pone is closer here, and we're further out, but I'll repeat my "hopeful defence" tactic.


Congrats to Hill hem on his top 20 finish in this season's CribbagePro multiplayer. 17th last I checked.
JQT
3278 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 3:52 AM
As recently as two days ago, many people agreed to DEFEND as Dealer from (117*-107), but then many of these same players chose a hand more geared to attempt to peg out.

I felt that 'straddling' the fence in that instance was filled with danger: Sometimes, if you choose to defend, then you should DO IT! Unless a Jack Cut had occurred, or if we had scored with our first card reply during the pegging, it seemed only wise to stay true to the defensive course!

Today, we find ourselves again as the Dealer, but this time, we are at (115*-111), meaning that: as the Dealer we have farther to go, and meanwhile, Pone is quite a bit closer.

But once again, while this may cause our odds of winning to fall lower, I believe this fact also lends a bit of certainty to our plan, which in this scenario must at least mean that we strongly consider a full-on OFFENSE. And once again, that nearly 9% shot at a Jack Cut would really help us!

Pegging Six Holes as the Dealer is difficult, but never unreasonable. Stealing a game such as this is how many newer players can first get noticed or recognized after showing up at the local Cribbage hangout; another way is to regularly leave with more money than you had when you arrived. (And if you do either of these often and well, I would also recommend parking in a different place each time.)

Back to the Puzzle and Game: The question we should ask, with Pone at Hole 111, is: "What do our cards tell us?" Some arrangements just lend themselves to DEFENSE, while others seem custom-built for OFFENSE. At this extremely volatile Relative Score, I like to study the cards very carefully.

What's often confusing is when we hold maybe two or three great Pegging Cards, but also hold three or four very DEFENSIVE cards; we can be fooled or lured into trying to peg out, when maybe we shouldn't. And today, I'll admit: I'm VERY tempted to try!

Today we have the often-touted 5 Card, and we hold a nice "Magic Eleven" of 4-7, with the previously-mentioned 5 Card bringing a coveted "Sweet Sixteen" into the equation. Still, sans a Jack Cut, we're really going to have to either peg on nearly EVERY CARD PLAYED, or score a real 'pegging coup' of maybe a RUN plus a few more holes.

After Toss (T Q), we would hold four cards that could probably do quite well getting us to Hole 119 today, but can we reliably 'churn out' Six Holes? I would love to try, and yet I think I might fail about 75% of the time. RAS might do better, but I think even a Wizard might still 'come up short' well over 50% of the time.

What about Pone's prospects if we choose to DEFEND? We might Toss (5 T) as I suggested during the aforementioned recent scenario, and as I proclaimed quite loudly on that day (and many others before it): I am really not too concerned with the POINTS here!

Or get this: we could even try Toss (4 5)! When we are the Dealer, POINTS tend to take care of themselves; this is, in my opinion, once again more of a PEGGING PUZZLE, and not so much a points problem! And as much as I love to peg out as the Dealer from half-a-dozen points away, the odds do seem to favor DEFENSE today.

Keep (2 7 T Q) is a hand that Pone should have a difficult time deciphering! Getting rid of the Deuce SAFELY looks to be our main challenge; other than this, our primary task is to hope that the Cut Card does NOT give Pone a Winning Hand! And 'hoping' is a rather simple task in Cribbage, since we do it all the time!

After the 9 Card Cut, we must "hope" that we dealt no 6 Cards or PAIRS of Treys or 7-8 combinations to Pone today. The Lead Card by Pone shall tell us a LOT. A Trey or a 6 Card will be scary; a 5 Card Lead will almost certainly show desperation (maybe this is where we fling away our Deuce?!).

But we shall not be caught attempting to score (15=2) on a 5 Card Lead! Never do what your Opponent WANTS you to do, especially after the Lead Card.

We'll probably lose today more often than we'll win, but if we are careful, we might obtain nearly even odds. It's a very enjoyable puzzle!
oc
51 votes

Joined: September 2021

   
Monday 3:55 AM
Since we're 6 points away, it seems hard to win during the pegging. So, in order to win, we need to survive the play and pone's hand and to do that we'll need the best defensive hand we can find. In order for pone to get 10 points, they'll need to keep most of their 5s so I'd like to toss our 5. For variety in hand, I think it's good to toss one of the Xs but I'm not sure which one is better. I suspect pone has more Ts than Qs so I'll keep the Q for defence.
dec
5447 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 5:22 AM
Since we need six- one at least for dealer peg and two for the five dealt leave at needing three. Every cut between both hands secures two more. The ace or a nine cut might hinder us that is still very good odds here. Most of all its about holding opponent to nine or less, eleven count helps us here I feel. Note on opening statement today there are possible wrong answers. Like holding way too many points not needed to be able to count out with the possibility of opponent pegging out on you for game. So there are cases of learning better appropriate play
wasa
2164 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Monday 6:44 AM
Keeping the 4 points and tossing the 4 and 7 as these cards may form a run with my 5 that I don't want.
joekayak
1543 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Monday 6:53 AM
Defense. Hold wide. Keep a magic 11. Minimum 2 in hand or 2 more in crib after cut. Brings minimum total between 2 hands to 4. Add dealer peg. Should be 1 more somewhere. Must hold pone to 10 or less. Try to guard against 8 point 4 X hand.
MiketheExpert
242 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Monday 7:05 AM
This reminds me of the hand from two days ago, however in this case we are only at hole 115 (6 pegs away), whilst pone is far more advanced at hole 111.

Thus, as JQT had pointed out about "straddling the fence" on that particular day, this position, even more so, leaves no room for indecisiveness.

However, on the hand from before, our odds of winning the game were EXCELLENT (80% +), really no matter which cards we chose to keep. On this hand today, the odds are AGAINST us for winning.

I am either looking for full out OFFENSE, or full-on DEFENSE, no in-between. I graciously give myself perhaps a 10-15% chance of pegging 6 with even the best 4-card combo of these 6 (2 4 5 7), and so, it is going to be full-on DEFENSE, as it seems VERY much more likely I can limit his points with a defensive hand. By using this strategy, I am essentially conceding that I will lose this at least 50% of the time, but this seems better than the alternative of going for 6 pegs and coming up short.

So, for me it is toss (5 10) (getting rid of the five as opposed to keeping it, because I have no thoughts of scoring with it on a 5 or face-card lead today, so it becomes an absolute liability). The most widely spaced (2 4 7 Q) would appear to have the best odds of holding pone to 0 points, which is what I'd like to do today). If a 5 is lead, I'm playing the 2, and on the most dangerous trey lead, I may consider playing the 7 instead of the Q as my next response, saving my high card for later, and hoping he cannot play a 5 for fifteen points.
31for14
455 votes

Joined: May 2019

   
Monday 8:12 AM
Guaranteed at least the deadhole after cut and pegging. Best defensive hold.
Fender Bass
149 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Monday 12:16 PM
Gamblin' today. It doesn't matter how many points you keep if you never get to count.
fentesk
344 votes

Joined: January 2021

   
Monday 12:27 PM
Avoid, avoid, avoid today.

I am not attempting to peg 6, and I don't care what goes in my crib, I want to avoid pone pegging.

In general the two most dangerous cards I see here are the 5, and then a lone 2, so I've tossed them and tried to give myself a range of options.

If anything, JQT and Ras's oft-noted 5-card lead might worry me the most with this hand, but thankfully most don't lead a 5 so I have some safety there (I probably play the Q on a 5).
Ras2829
4283 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 10:11 PM
Since dealer needs six holes (pegs, hand, and crib score) will go with the best four cards to avoid pegs (4-5-7-Q), ply off the lead and take only seemingly safe pegs. Would play the 7 on any X lead. A five lead would cause me the most consternation. Would have to take the lesser of the evils and play the Queen. Very critical here to avoid giving up pegs to n/d. Chance of dealer pegging 6 pegs is less than 20%.