November 23, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
0*-0  ?
34%
27%
22%
13%
1%
1%
Total votes: 221
scottcribConfronted with this first hand of an online game. I see no easy choice.
mrob2199
815 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 3:09 AM
Nice puzzle Scott-it took awhile but I came up with this hold-cuts of a 2,3,or 5 get us to 12 while an 8 cut gets us to 8 with a 7 to work with in the crib
dec
5447 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:15 AM
Same. The nine cut gives us eight also. Sometimes that 7-A can produce a sizable crib. But with this cut a dozen will suit us fine. Three of spades lead. dec
james500
3051 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 3:31 AM
My cutting practice has paid off.
Sally3
37 votes

Joined: October 2021

   
Tuesday 3:31 AM
Pays to flush...connectors. A face won't help anything anyway.
JQT
3278 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 4:08 AM
An interesting arrangement of cards for First Dealer of a game is posted today by scottcrib, and he leaves us with the comment, "I see no easy choice." Well, if Cribbage were easy, I suppose everyone would play it! (Or maybe NOT play it?!)

The FLUSH seems superior to start this game, as opposed to Keep (3 3 4 9) and Toss (A 7), but then we notice Keep (3 3 7 9) and Toss (A 4) is also an option! Let's hold on a bit!

I've come to call Toss (3 4), Toss (6 7), and Toss (J Q) the three 'Dealer Discard Cousins' that begin with Zero Points but end up with an average of close to, or often exceeding, Five Points, which is better than some higher-ranking PAIRS such as Toss (T T), Toss (Q Q), or Toss (K K)!

But when we look at our other idea here of Toss (A 4), we are also reminded that any Dealer Discard with a 5 Card, or cards that 'add up' to Five or Fifteen, is bound to have an average of higher than Five Points, and often closer to Six Points or more.

For Defensive Pegging as the game's First Dealer, it's hard to beat the FLUSH; but in fact, Keep (3 3 7 9) should do just as well, so I am slowly convincing myself to consider Toss (A 4) today. Let's do it; we'll stand out from the Early Morning Crowd today!
Andy (muesli64)
2028 votes

Joined: August 2009

Tuesday 5:05 AM
Go for double run. Then it follows you should keep the 9 and throw A-4 which in itself is not all bad.
zeke76
1080 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Tuesday 5:39 AM
I like the flush and the 34 in the crib. Good cut for either of the two main choices today.
jmath714
1018 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Tuesday 5:49 AM
Let’s not let the cut influence our hold here.

I see the flush as the top option for pegging, and 3-4 is superior to 7-A. While we don’t have any holds at 12+, any non-face gets us to 6+, with some hope in the crib.
usacoder
779 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Tuesday 5:51 AM
Personally, I would have tossed the 4-7 to the crib but I went with what my algorithm indicated as the top pick.

Nice cut for the show-card.

Here are the top 5 from the algorithm.

Points: 14.17. Keep: ACE of SPADEs THREE of SPADEs SEVEN of SPADEs NINE of SPADEs Discard these: THREE of DIAMONDs FOUR of DIAMONDs
Points: 13.82. Keep: THREE of DIAMONDs THREE of SPADEs SEVEN of SPADEs NINE of SPADEs Discard these: ACE of SPADEs FOUR of DIAMONDs
Points: 13.40. Keep: THREE of DIAMONDs THREE of SPADEs FOUR of DIAMONDs NINE of SPADEs Discard these: ACE of SPADEs SEVEN of SPADEs
Points: 13.20. Keep: ACE of SPADEs THREE of DIAMONDs THREE of SPADEs NINE of SPADEs Discard these: FOUR of DIAMONDs SEVEN of SPADEs
Points: 12.49. Keep: ACE of SPADEs THREE of DIAMONDs THREE of SPADEs FOUR of DIAMONDs Discard these: SEVEN of SPADEs NINE of SPADEs
scottcrib
754 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Tuesday 5:56 AM
I don't like breaking up double run options (if I already have connected cards) if I can and it doesn't seem to hurt my hand or crib chances too much to do so. Also, every cut helps hand or crib.
mfetchCT425
1001 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 6:01 AM
Close call I think today between three choices. Decided to keep the most combined points before the cut. Liked A-4 in the crib slightly more that 3-4 or A-7.
Eolus619
535 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Tuesday 6:37 AM
Taking a straight path today,….flush and 3/4 to my crib. Good defensive pegging hold. Cuts from 10/14 ranks help in someway
Jazzselke
1933 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 6:42 AM
Generally speaking I like holding a possible double-run as mentioned by today's host. But in this case I agree with Mike and prefer to keep the only configuration that starts with a combined 6 points. A great puzzle when the commenters are showing 4 different choices.
Gougie00
4837 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 6:45 AM
Tepid at best today. I kept the 334 together just incase of a 2 or 5 cut. Well, bingo for that.

Wondering whether the flush would have been the better option.
wasa
2164 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 7:38 AM
Sorry scottcrib, to me this was an easy choice. Almost always pays to flush. When in doubt, flush. Of course, the flush is the best choice until it isn't :-)
Fender Bass
149 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Tuesday 7:42 AM
I find I've been holding more flushes since finding this site.
fentesk
344 votes

Joined: January 2021

   
Tuesday 9:14 AM
Flush and A-4 both start with 4 points in hand, but the A-4 is the stronger discard, guaranteed 2 points, and lets me split the points more evenly between hand and crib.

The flush grows from every cut except the Xs, but that's a pretty sizable exception which was the final deciding point for me.

I like the flush seems to give more defensive pegging opportunities as first dealer, but I'll take my chances with the A-4 discard.
MiketheExpert
242 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Tuesday 10:52 AM
It's a pretty close toss-up for me on first deal between keeping the flush and throwing (A 4) to keep a combined six. I think I prefer the flush keep just ever so slightly for first-hand defense, and (3 4) suited is only a little bit inferior to the toss of (A 4). Not quite as partial to (A 7), though it keeps the double-run possibilities intact, so I'll slot that into 3rd place today.

I can see myself selecting either of the first 2 options, depending on what direction the wind is blowing for me on that day.
joekayak
1543 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Tuesday 12:02 PM
II like keeping the 3-3-4 together.
Inushtuk1
741 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Tuesday 12:41 PM
I feel this will be best for expected averages before factoring in the defensive pegs. Question for everyone. If you kept the pair of 3's in either format, would you pair an opening lead of a 3?
Coeurdelion
4742 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 2:22 PM
I think it's between the flush, 3-3-4-9 (A-7) and perhaps A-3-4-7 (3S-9):

A-3S-7-9: 4pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 9pts

3-3-4-9: 4pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.85) = 7¾pts

A-3-4-7: 2pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.78) = 5¾pts

Potential:

A-3S-7-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 8/9pts with 2222, 33, 5555, 777, 8888 = 17 cuts. Plus 9 spades for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

3-3-4-9: Improves with 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/12pts with 2222, 33, 5555, 8888, 999 = 17 cuts.

A-3-4-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 = 23 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer we'll play Defense. Positional hole is 8pts but we'll hope to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

Both the flush and A-3-4-7 should peg well as they have a 3-card magic eleven but playing Defense I think 3-3-4-9 will peg well too.

Summary:

A-3S-7-9 is best for starting value by 1¼pts but A-3-4-7 has most cuts for improvement and 23 for 6-8pts which is a big increase over 2pts. However I don't think it will catch up the 3¼pts on the flush so I'll throw the suited 3-4.
HalscribCLX
4468 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 2:24 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
3-3-7-9____5.87+(-1.93)+5.43=9.37____33.7____47.6
A-3S-7-9___6.41+(-1.96)+4.67=9.12____33.5____46.3
3-3-4-9____6.65+(-2.15)+3.72=8.22____32.3____45.3
A-3-3-9____6.13+(-2.11)+3.60=7.62____30.1____43.5
A-3-3-4____5.57+(-2.50)+4.14=7.21____30.9____42.7
A-3D-4-7___5.04+(-2.11)+3.47=6.40____28.0____40.8

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
3-3-7-9_______25.6____26.1
A-3S-7-9______27.0____27.6
3-3-4-9_______26.6____28.2
A-3-3-9_______26.4____29.7
A-3-3-4_______28.9____31.3
A-3D-4-7______27.0____32.1

3-3-7-9 is best for expected averages by 0.25pt. and it is slightly best for Win %s and appreciably lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select A-4 to discard.

After the 5S cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
4283 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 3:19 PM
Choosing defense as dealer of hand one; so 3-3-7-9 and toss A-4, the only choice in the hand that averages more than 5 points in crib. Play off the lead although would pair a trey. Any of those frequent X-point discards (1-K, 10-Q, Q-K0 the crib will tally 8 points.